Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 02-05-2014

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02.05.2014
15:43
Foreign exchange market. American session: the U.S. dollar jumped against the most major currencies after the release of better-than-expected U.S. labour market data, but later lost all its gains due to concerns on tensions in Ukraine

The U.S. dollar jumped against the most major currencies after the release of better-than-expected U.S. labour market data, but later lost all its gains due to concerns on tensions in Ukraine. The U.S. inflation rate dropped to 6.3% in April from 6.7% in March. It is the lowest level in more than 5 years. Analysts forecasted the decrease to 6.6%. 288,000 new nonfarm jobs were created in April, the biggest growth in one month since the start of 2012. March’s figure was revised up to 203,000 from 192,000. The projected figure was an increase of 211,000. Factory Orders fell to 1.1% in March from 1.6% in February (forecast: 1.3%).

The euro recovered its losses against the U.S. dollar. Market participants were disappointed by Spain’s manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI). The index dropped to 52.7 in April from 52.8 in March. Analysts expected an increase to 53.4. But Eurozone’s PMI was higher. The index climbed to 53.4 in April from 53.0 in March (forecast: 53.3). Eurozone’s unemployment decreased slightly in March. The unemployment rate dropped to 11.8% from 11.9% in February (forecast: 11.9%).

The British pound recovered its losses against the U.S. dollar. Investors were disappointed by the worse-than-expected U.K. construction data. The U.K. construction purchasing managers' index decreased to 60.8 in April from 62.5 in March. Analysts forecasted the decrease to 62.2.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand today.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Australia’s Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 0.9% in the first quarter (4. Quarter 2013: 0.2%). Analysts forecasted an increase of 0.5%. HIA New Home Sales were up only 0.2% in March (February: 4.6%).

The Japanese yen dropped against the U.S. dollar, but later recovered its losses. The U.S. dollar was supported by the better-than-expected U.S. personal spending in March, published on Thursday, and U.S. labour market data. The U.S. personal spending climbed 0.9% in March from an increase of 0.5% in February. The projected figure was 0.7%. Due to concerns about the situation in Ukraine, the yen recovered all its losses.

Some economic data was published in Japan today. Household spending increased 7.2% in March (forecast: 1.7%) from the decline of 2.5% in February. Japan's monetary base decreased to +48.5% in April from +54.8% in March. Analysts forecasted an increase to 55.3%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged as expected at 3.6% in March (forecast: 3.6%).

14:00
U.S.: Factory Orders , March +1.1% (forecast +1.3%)
13:58
U.S. inflation rate dropped to 6.3% in April, the lowest level in more than 5 years

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published the U.S. labour market data today. The U.S. inflation rate dropped to 6.3% in April from 6.7% in March. It is the lowest level in more than 5 years. Analysts forecasted the decrease to 6.6%.

288,000 new nonfarm jobs were created in April, the biggest growth in one month since the start of 2012. March’s figure was revised up to 203,000 from 192,000. The projected figure was an increase of 211,000.

Hiring was broad-based. These figures showed that the U.S. economy is improving. Despite the better-than-expected figures, some problems remained. The unemployment rates for teenagers (19.1%), black people (11.6%) and Hispanics (7.3%) are high but decreased slightly in April.

13:45
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3800, $1.3840, $1.3900, $1.3950

USD/JPY Y101.50, Y101.75, Y102.50/60, Y103.25

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9350

AUD/JPY Y96.50

USD/CAD C$1.1020, C$1.1030, C$1.1045, C$1.1075

13:04
The U.S. dollar jumped against the most major currencies due to the better-than-expected U.S. labour market data

The U.S. inflation dropped to 6.3% in April from 6.7% in March (forecast: 6.6%). 288,000 nonfarm jobs were added in April. Market participants expected the creation of 211,000 jobs.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3813

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.6821

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to 103.02

12:31
U.S.: Average workweek, April 34.5 (forecast 34.5)
12:30
U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, April 288 (forecast 211)
12:30
U.S.: Unemployment Rate, April 6.3% (forecast 6.6%)
12:30
U.S.: Average hourly earnings , April 0.0% (forecast +0.2%)
12:00
Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3950, $1.3930, $1.3900/05, $1.3890, $1.3870

Bids $1.3835, $1.3810/00, $1.3775, $1.3735


GBP/USD

Offers $1.7030, $1.7000, $1.6970, $1.6920

Bids $1.6830, $1.6805/00, $1.6760


AUD/USD

Offers $0.9395/00, $0.9350,  $0.9315/20

Bids $0.9250, $0.9220, $0.9200, $0.9155/50, $0.9100


EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.90/00, Y142.80, Y142.50

Bids Y141.60/50, Y141.10/00, Y140.40/50, Y139.95/00


USD/JPY

Offers Y103.40, Y102.95/00, Y102.70/80

Bids Y102.10/00, Y101.85/80, Y101.50, Y101.30, Y101.00


EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8330, stg0.8300/10, stg0.8280, stg0.8235/40

Bids stg0.8195/85, stg0.8150, stg0.8100

12:00
Foreign exchange market. European session: markets little changed, waiting for the publication of U.S. labour market data

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:00    Australia                HIA New Home Sales, m/m        March                +4.6%                +0.2%

01:30    Australia                Producer price index, q / q        Quarter I             +0.2%  +0.6%   +0.9%

01:30    Australia                Producer price index, y/y           Quarter I             +1.9%  +2.1%   +2.5%

07:30    Switzerland            Manufacturing PMI                    April                   54.4      55.1       55.8

07:48    France                  Manufacturing PMI (Finally)         April                   52.1      50.9       51.2

07:53    Germany               Manufacturing PMI (Finally)         April                   53.7      54.2       54.1

07:58    Eurozone              Manufacturing PMI (Finally)          April                  53.0      53.3       53.4

08:30    United Kingdom     PMI Construction                       April                  62.5      62.2       60.8

09:00    Eurozone                Unemployment Rate                March               11.9%   11.9%    11.8%

The euro showed no clear direction against the U.S. dollar. Investors are waiting for the publication of U.S. labour market data. But Eurozone’s PMI was higher. Markets were also unimpressed by the release of Eurozone’s economic data. Eurozone’s manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) climbed to 53.4 in April from 53.0 in March (forecast: 53.3). Eurozone’s unemployment decreased slightly in March. The unemployment rate dropped to 11.8% from 11.9% in February (forecast: 11.9%).

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. Market participants are cautious ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls release. Analysts expect that the unemployment rate should decrease to 6.6% in April from 6.7% in March and 211,000 jobs should be added in April.

The British pound was down against the U.S. dollar. Investors were disappointed by the worse-than-expected U.K. construction data. The U.K. construction purchasing managers' index decreased to 60.8 in April from 62.5 in March. Analysts forecasted the decrease to 62.2.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to 1.6854

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y102.57

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    U.S.                  Average workweek           April      34.5      34.5     

12:30    U.S.                  Average hourly earnings   April      0.0%     +0.2% 

12:30    U.S.                  Nonfarm Payrolls             April      192        211       

12:30    U.S.                  Unemployment Rate       April      6.7%     6.6%    

14:00    U.S.                  Factory Orders               March   +1.6%  +1.3%

09:20
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3800, $1.3840, $1.3900, $1.3950

USD/JPY Y101.50, Y101.75, Y102.50/60, Y103.25

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9350

AUD/JPY Y96.50

USD/CAD C$1.1020, C$1.1030, C$1.1045, C$1.1075

09:00
Eurozone: Unemployment Rate , March 11.8% (forecast 11.9%)
08:45
Foreign exchange market. Asian session: most major currencies traded mixed against the U.S. dollar ahead of the publication labour market data in the U.S.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:00    Australia                HIA New Home Sales, m/m        March                +4.6%                +0.2%

01:30    Australia                Producer price index, q / q        Quarter I             +0.2%  +0.6%   +0.9%

01:30    Australia                Producer price index, y/y           Quarter I             +1.9%  +2.1%   +2.5%

07:30    Switzerland            Manufacturing PMI                    April                   54.4      55.1       55.8

07:48    France                  Manufacturing PMI (Finally)         April                   52.1      50.9       51.2

07:53    Germany               Manufacturing PMI (Finally)         April                   53.7      54.2       54.1

07:58    Eurozone              Manufacturing PMI (Finally)          April                  53.0      53.3       53.4

08:30    United Kingdom     PMI Construction                       April                  62.5      62.2       60.8

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the labour market data release in the U.S. Analysts expect that the unemployment rate should decrease to 6.6% in April from 6.7% in March and 211,000 jobs should be added in April.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand today.

The Australian dollar traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. The Australian currency was supported the better-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI). Australia’s PPI climbed 0.9% in the first quarter (4. Quarter 2013: 0.2%). Analysts forecasted an increase of 0.5%. HIA New Home Sales were up only 0.2% in March (February: 4.6%).

The Japanese yen dropped against the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar was supported by the better-than-expected U.S. personal spending in March, published on Thursday. The U.S. personal spending climbed 0.9% in March from an increase of 0.5% in February. The projected figure was 0.7%.

Some economic data was published in Japan. Market participants remained unimpressed by this data. Household spending increased 7.2% in March (forecast: 1.7%) from the decline of 2.5% in February. Japan's monetary base decreased to +48.5% in April from +54.8% in March. Analysts forecasted an increase to 55.3%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged as expected at 3.6% in March (forecast: 3.6%).

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3855

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair was up to Y102.35

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00    Eurozone          Unemployment Rate       March   11.9%   11.9%   

12:30    U.S.                  Average workweek           April      34.5      34.5      

12:30    U.S.                  Average hourly earnings   April      0.0%     +0.2%  

12:30    U.S.                  Nonfarm Payrolls             April      192        211        

12:30    U.S.                  Unemployment Rate       April      6.7%     6.6%     

14:00    U.S.                  Factory Orders               March   +1.6%  +1.3%

08:30
United Kingdom: PMI Construction, April 60.8 (forecast 62.2)
08:00
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI, April 53.4 (forecast 53.3)
07:55
Germany: Manufacturing PMI, April 54.1 (forecast 54.2)
07:50
France: Manufacturing PMI, April 51.2 (forecast 50.9)
07:30
Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI, April 55.8 (forecast 55.1)
05:28
Options levels on friday, May 1, 2014:

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3933 (2936)

$1.3908 (2267)

$1.3880 (1143)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3861

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3830 (364)

$1.3808 (1113)

$1.3772 (2614)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is 27109  contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (3239);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 34430 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3600 (4085);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.27 versus 1.23 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 1

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7200 (1074)

$1.7100 (1375)

$1.7001 (1225)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6884

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6798 (1259)

$1.6699 (926)

$1.6600 (1087)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is  17711 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6900 (2329);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 19833 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1869);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.12 versus 1.12 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 1

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

01:30
Australia: Producer price index, q / q, Quarter I +0.9% (forecast +0.6%)
01:30
Australia: Producer price index, y/y, Quarter I +2.5% (forecast +2.1%)
01:00
Australia: HIA New Home Sales, m/m, March +0.2%

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