Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 05-05-2014

00:00 Japan Bank holiday

01:30 Australia Trade Balance March 1.20 1.04

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index April -1.1% +0.8%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y April +8.7%

07:48 France Services PMI (Finally) April 50.3 50.3

07:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) April 52.0 52.0

07:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) April 53.1 53.1

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services April 57.6 57.9

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) March +0.4% 0.0%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) March +0.8% +0.9%

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings

09:30 Australia Annual Budget Release 2014

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions March 0.29 0.60

12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln March -42.3 -40.1

14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index April 55.2 57.3

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories May +3.0

21:30 U.S. FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks

22:45 New Zealand Employment Change, q/q Quarter I +1.1% +0.7%

22:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate Quarter I 6.0% 5.8%

23:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index April 46.2

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The euro traded little higher against the U.S. dollar despite the better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. The Institute of Supply Management released its non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index today. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.2 in April from 53.1 in March. Analysts forecasted an increase to 54.3.

Eurozone’s investor confidence released by Sentix declined to 12.8 in March from 14.1 in February. Analysts forecasted an increase to 14.2.

The European Commission warned that the low level of inflation and geopolitical tensions with Russia could have a negative impact on economic recovery.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies, supported by the better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. The escalation of tensions in Ukraine had a negative impact on the U.S. currency.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Markets in London are closed for a public holiday.

In overnight trading, the New Zealand dollar decreased against the U.S. dollar, but recovered its losses. The decline of China’s HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was the reason for this price development. China’s HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers’ index dropped to 48.1 in April from 48.3 in March. Analysts expected an increase to 48.4. China is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.

In overnight trading, the Australian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar after the release of China’s HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers’ index and Australia’s building permits, but recovered its losses. Building permits increased to -3.5% in March from -5.4% in February. February’s figure was revised down from -5.0%. The projected figure was an increase of 1.5%. Job advertisements in Australia were up 2.2% in April from 1.4% in March.

In overnight trading, the Japanese yen rose for a second day against the U.S. dollar, but declined after the release of the better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told CNBC that Japan’s economic recovery is on track. His interview is damping speculation Japan’s central bank will add more quantitative stimulus measures.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:30    Australia                MI Inflation Gauge, m/m                          April      +0.2%                                               +0.4%

00:30    Australia                MI Inflation Gauge, y/y                            April      +2.7%                                               +2.8%

01:30    Australia                Building Permits, m/m                              March   -5.4%   Revised From -5.0%  +1.7%   -3.5%

01:30    Australia                Building Permits, y/y                                March   +23.2%                                              +20.0%

01:30    Australia                ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)                April     +1.4%                                                +2.2%

01:45    China                    HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally)             April      48.3                                       48.4       48.1

08:30    Eurozone              Sentix Investor Confidence                      March   14.1                                       14.2       12.8

09:00    Eurozone                Producer Price Index, MoM                    March    -0.2%                                   -0.2%     -0.2%

09:00    Eurozone                Producer Price Index (YoY)                    March    -1.7%                                   -1.8%     -1.6%

09:00    Eurozone                European Commission Economic Growth Forecasts                                                    

09:00    Eurozone                Eurogroup Meetings

The euro traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Eurozone’s investor confidence released by Sentix declined to 12.8 in March from 14.1 in February. Analysts forecasted an increase to 14.2.

The European Commission released economic forecasts today. The gross domestic product (GDP) will increase 1.6% in the EU and 1.2% in the Eurozone in 2014, climbing to 2.0% and 1.7% respectively in 2015. The inflation in the Eurozone will remain low: 0.8% in 2014 and 1.2% in 2015.

The European Commission predicted the decline of unemployment rate. The unemployment rate will be 11.8% in 2014 and 11.4% in 2015.

The Commission’s forecasts show government debt in the Eurozone will climb to 96% of GDP in 2014, declining to 95.4% of GDP in 2015 (2008: 70.2% of GDP).

The European Commission warned that the low level of inflation and geopolitical tensions with Russia could have a negative impact on economic recovery.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the publication of ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the USA. Analysts expect that ISM non-manufacturing PMI should climb to 54.3 in April from 53.1 in March.

The British pound declined against the U.S. dollar. Markets in London are closed for a public holiday.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to 1.6852

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:45    U.S.                   Services PMI (Finally)                 April      54.2      54.2     

14:00    U.S.                   ISM Non-Manufacturing             April      53.1      54.3

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3970, $1.3950, $1.3930, $1.3890-910

Bids $1.3850, $1.3825/20, $1.3800, $1.3775

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.7000, $1.6970/80, $1.6940/50, $1.6900

Bids  $1.6850

AUD/USD

Offers  $0.9400, $0.9350, $0.9320, $0.9290/00

Bids $0.9255/50, $0.9220, $0.9200, $0.9150

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.50, Y142.20, Y142.00, Y141.75/80

Bids  Y141.20, Y141.00, Y140.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.50

Bids Y101.85/80, Y101.50, Y101.20

EUR/GBP

Offers 

Bids  stg0.8190-80, stg0.8150

The European Commission released economic forecasts today. The gross domestic product (GDP) will increase 1.6% in the EU and 1.2% in the Eurozone in 2014, climbing to 2.0% and 1.7% respectively in 2015. The inflation in the Eurozone will remain low: 0.8% in 2014 and 1.2% in 2015.

The European Commission predicted the decline of unemployment rate. The unemployment rate will be 11.8% in 2014 and 11.4% in 2015.

The Commission’s forecasts show government debt in the Eurozone will climb to 96% of GDP in 2014, declining to 95.4% of GDP in 2015 (2008: 70.2% of GDP).

EUR/USD $1.3750, $1.3775, $1.3800, $1.3825, $1.3900

USD/JPY Y101.50, Y101.60, Y101.80, Y101.90, Y102.00, Y102.10, Y102.50, Y102.70, Y102.90, Y103.00

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9375

GBP/USD $1.6825

USD/CAD Cad1.1000

EUR/GBP stg0.8250

NZD/USD $0.8610

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:30    Australia                MI Inflation Gauge, m/m                          April      +0.2%                                               +0.4%

00:30    Australia                MI Inflation Gauge, y/y                            April      +2.7%                                               +2.8%

01:30    Australia                Building Permits, m/m                              March   -5.4%   Revised From -5.0%  +1.7%   -3.5%

01:30    Australia                Building Permits, y/y                                March   +23.2%                                              +20.0%

01:30    Australia                ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)                April     +1.4%                                                +2.2%

01:45    China                    HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally)             April      48.3                                       48.4       48.1

08:30    Eurozone              Sentix Investor Confidence                      March   14.1                                       14.2       12.8

The U.S. dollar dropped against the most major currencies. The escalation of tensions in Ukraine has a significant negative impact on U.S. currency.

The New Zealand dollar decreased against the U.S. dollar. The decline of China’s HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was the reason for this price development. China’s HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers’ index dropped to 48.1 in April from 48.3 in March. Analysts expected an increase to 48.4. China is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.

The Australian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar after the release of China’s HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers’ index and Australia’s building permits. Building permits increased to -3.5% in March from -5.4% in February. February’s figure was revised down from -5.0%. The projected figure was an increase of 1.5%. Job advertisements in Australia were up 2.2% in April from 1.4% in March.

The Japanese yen rose for a second day against the U.S. dollar. The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told CNBC that Japan’s economic recovery is on track. His interview is damping speculation Japan’s central bank will add more quantitative stimulus measures.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.85

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00    Eurozone           Producer Price Index, MoM         March   -0.2%   -0.2%   

09:00    Eurozone           Producer Price Index (YoY)        March   -1.7%   -1.8%   

09:00    Eurozone           European Commission Economic Growth Forecasts                                                    

09:00    Eurozone           Eurogroup Meetings                                                  

13:45    U.S.                   Services PMI (Finally)                 April      54.2      54.2      

14:00    U.S.                   ISM Non-Manufacturing             April      53.1      54.3

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3930 (3850)

$1.3906 (2284)

$1.3890 (1255)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3875

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3840 (441)

$1.3814 (1161)

$1.3780 (2642)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is 28208  contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (3850);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 34756 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3600 (4085);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.23 versus 1.27 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 2

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7100 (1375)

$1.7000 (1313)

$1.6903 (3844)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6871

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6798 (1312)

$1.6700 (1078)

$1.6600 (1082)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is  19629 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6900 (3844)

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 20312 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1869);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.12 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 2

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.