Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 07-05-2014

00:00 France Bank holiday

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed April 18.1 7.5

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate April 5.8% 5.9%

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln April 7.7 13.1

05:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter I 2 3

06:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) March +0.4% +0.2%

06:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) March +4.8%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index April -1.1% +0.8%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y April +8.7% +9.1%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) April +0.4% +0.1%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) April 0.0% +0.1%

11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375

11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

12:15 Canada Housing Starts April 157 177

12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index March +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims May 344 328

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major. The U.S. currency was supported by the speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He said that Russia is ready to discuss a way out of the Ukrainian crisis with the head of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. But the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’ s speech to Congress’ Joint Economic Committee put under pressure the U.S. dollar. Janet Yellen said that the economy will grow faster in 2014, but the Fed will keep interest rates at their historically low levels after the central bank closes out its bond purchasing program.

In addition, U.S. nonfarm productivity fell 1.7% in the first quarter from a 1.8% increase in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected a 0.5% decrease. U.S. unit labour costs climbed 4.2% in the first quarter from a 0.1% decrease in the previous quarter. Analysts had forecasted a 2.3% rise.

The euro traded little changed against the U.S. dollar despite the disappointing economic data from Germany and France. German factory orders declined 2.8% in March from an increase of 0.9% in February. February’s figure was revised up from 0.6%. Analysts had forecasted a 0.5% rise. French industrial production decreased 0.7% in March from an increase of 0.1% in February. Analysts had expected a 0.4% increase.

The Swiss franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar. Market participants remained unimpressed by the rise of the central bank’s foreign currency reserves. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) had released that the foreign currency reserves climbed to 438.9 billion Swiss francs in April from 437.9 billion Swiss francs in March. This figure shows the SNB had not bought euros to defend EUR/CHF 1.20 exchange rate floor.

The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in Great Britain.

The Canadian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The Canadian currency declined after the release of new building permits. Building permits in Canada declined 3.0% in March (February: -11.6%). Analysts had expected a 4.3% increase. Later, the Canadian dollar recovered its losses after the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’ s speech to Congress’ Joint Economic Committee.

The New Zealand dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar after the speech of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Graeme Wheeler. He said the New Zealand remains strong and the central bank could intervene to lower the domestic currency.

New Zealand's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.0% in the first quarter. Analysts had forecasted the decrease to 5.8%.

The number of employed people in New Zealand climbed 0.9% in the first quarter (4. quarter 2013: +1.0% (revised down from 1.1%). The projected figure was an increase of 0.7%.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Retail sales in Australia increased 0.1% in March. February’s figure was revised up to 0.3% from 0.2%. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.4%.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The Bank of Japan released the monetary policy meeting minutes. Most members of the central agreed to keep easing monetary policy until inflation target of 2% is reached.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen reported to Congress’ Joint Economic Committee:

- The U.S. economy will pick up in the second quarter;

- The weak growth in the first quarter caused by the cold winter in the USA;

- Too many Americans remain unemployed;

- The inflation rate of 1% is too low. The Fed’s target is a 2% inflation rate. Fed is monitoring “inflation developments closely”;

- The Fed will keep interest rates at their historically low levels after the central bank closes out its bond purchasing program;

- The growth of the U.S. economy should be better in 2014 than a year ago. The economy grew 2.6% in 2013;

- Unemployment should continue to “gradually” decline;

- “Heightened geopolitical tensions” could threat the forecasts.

EUR/USD $1.3870, $1.3880, $1.3890, $1.3930

USD/JPY Y101.50, Y102.00, Y103.00

AUD/USD $0.9255, $0.9280, $0.9300, $0.9325

USD/CAD C$1.0875, C$1.0900, C$1.0975, C$1.1000

EUR/USD

Offers $1.4000, $1.3980/85, $1.3960

Bids  $1.3900

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7040/50, $1.7020, $1.7000

Bids  $1.6955/50, $1.6930, $1.6919/890, $1.6850

AUD/USD

Offers  $0.9450, $0.9400

Bids  $0.9320, $0.9305/00, $0.9255/50, $0.9220, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers  Y142.50, Y142.20, Y141.95/00

Bids  Y141.00, Y140.50, Y140.20, Y140.00

USD/JPY

Offers  Y102.50, Y102.00

Bids  Y101.35/30, Y101.20, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers 

Bids  stg0.8190-80, stg0.8150, stg0.8120, stg0.8100

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                Retail sales (MoM)                    March   +0.3%  +0.4%     +0.1%

01:30    Australia                Retail Sales Y/Y                        March   +4.9%                  +5.7%

01:45    China                    HSBC Services PMI                  April      51.9                        51.4

05:45    Switzerland           Unemployment Rate                April      3.2%      3.2%       3.2%

06:00    Germany               Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)       March   +0.9%   +0.5%    -2.8%

06:00    Germany               Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)     March   +6.5%   +4.3%    +1.5%

06:45    France                  Trade Balance, bln                    March    -3.4       -4.0         -4.9

06:45    France                  Industrial Production, m/m       March   +0.1%   +0.4%     -0.7%

06:45    France                  Industrial Production, y/y         March   -0.5%                    -0.8%

07:00    Switzerland           Foreign Currency Reserves       April       437.9    438.4       438.9

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen later in the day. In addition, U.S. nonfarm productivity and U.S. unit labour costs will be released today. U.S. nonfarm productivity should decline 0.5% in the first quarter from a 1.8% increase in the previous quarter. U.S. unit labour costs should climb 2.3% in the first quarter from a 0.1% decrease in the previous quarter.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar despite the disappointing economic data from Germany and France. German factory orders declined 2.8% in March from an increase of 0.9% in February. February’s figure was revised up from 0.6%. Analysts had forecasted a 0.5% rise. French industrial production decreased 0.7% in March from an increase of 0.1% in February. Analysts had expected a 0.4% increase.

The Swiss franc traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Market participants remained unimpressed by the rise of the central bank’s foreign currency reserves. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) had released that the foreign currency reserves climbed to 438.9 billion Swiss francs in April from 437.9 billion Swiss francs in March. This figure shows the SNB had not bought euros to defend EUR/CHF 1.20 exchange rate floor.

The British pound increased to 9-week highs against the euro. The sterling was supported by speculation the Bank of England will hike interest rates due to strong growth of the U.K. economy. The British currency traded lower against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in Great Britain.

EUR/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.3932

GBP/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.6954

USD/JPY: the currency pair was up to Y101.70

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada                  Building Permits (MoM)                            March        -11.6% +4.2% 

12:30    U.S.                       Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Preliminary)  Quarter I     +1.8%  -0.5%  

12:30    U.S.                       Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Preliminary)          Quarter I      -0.1%  +2.3% 

14:00    U.S.                       Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks                                                                    

23:01    United Kingdom     RICS House Price Balance                        April             57%      55%

EUR/USD $1.3870, $1.3880, $1.3890, $1.3930

USD/JPY Y101.50, Y102.00, Y103.00

AUD/USD $0.9255, $0.9280, $0.9300, $0.9325

USD/CAD C$1.0875, C$1.0900, C$1.0975, C$1.1000

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Graeme Wheeler said at a dairy conference in Hamilton:

- The New Zealand dollar remains strong and is till overvalued;

- The central bank could intervene in the currency market to sell New Zealand dollars if New Zealand’s currency remains strong while commodity prices fall.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                Retail sales (MoM)                    March   +0.3%  +0.4%     +0.1%

01:30    Australia                Retail Sales Y/Y                        March   +4.9%                  +5.7%

01:45    China                    HSBC Services PMI                  April      51.9                        51.4

05:45    Switzerland           Unemployment Rate                April      3.2%      3.2%       3.2%

06:00    Germany               Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)       March   +0.9%   +0.5%    -2.8%

06:00    Germany               Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)     March   +6.5%   +4.3%    +1.5%

06:45    France                  Trade Balance, bln                    March    -3.4       -4.0         -4.9

06:45    France                  Industrial Production, m/m       March   +0.1%   +0.4%     -0.7%

06:45    France                  Industrial Production, y/y         March   -0.5%                    -0.8%

07:00    Switzerland           Foreign Currency Reserves       April       437.9    438.4       438.9

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen later in the day.

The New Zealand dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar after the speech of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Graeme Wheeler. He said the New Zealand remains strong and the central bank could intervene to lower the domestic currency.

New Zealand's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.0% in the first quarter. Analysts had forecasted the decrease to 5.8%.

The number of employed people in New Zealand climbed 0.9% in the first quarter (4. quarter 2013: +1.0% (revised down from 1.1%). The projected figure was an increase of 0.7%.

The Australian dollar traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Retail sales in Australia increased 0.1% in March. February’s figure was revised up to 0.3% from 0.2%. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.4%.

The Japanese yen climbed against the U.S. dollar due to increasing demand for the safe haven yen. The Bank of Japan released the monetary policy meeting minutes. Most members of the central agreed to keep easing monetary policy until inflation target of 2% is reached.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.55

NZD/USD: the currency pair declined to $0.8687

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada                  Building Permits (MoM)                            March        -11.6% +4.2%  

12:30    U.S.                       Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Preliminary)  Quarter I     +1.8%  -0.5%   

12:30    U.S.                       Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Preliminary)          Quarter I      -0.1%  +2.3%  

14:00    U.S.                       Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks                                                                     

19:00    U.S.                       Consumer Credit                                     March          16.5      15.4      

23:01    United Kingdom     RICS House Price Balance                        April             57%      55%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3979 (2780)

$1.3957 (4926)

$1.3945 (2111)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3924

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3903 (230)

$1.3875 (1007)

$1.3837 (1476)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is 29401  contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (4926);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 36911 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3600 (4074);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.26 versus 1.23 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 6

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7200 (1066)

$1.7100 (1400)

$1.7003 (4238)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6978

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6899 (652)

$1.6800 (1297)

$1.6700 (1028)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is  22857 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (4238);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 22149 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1869);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.97 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 6

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.