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Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 09-05-2014
The U.S.
dollar traded higher against the most major currencies. The U.S. currency was
supported by concerns over tensions in Ukraine and the increasing demand for the
safe-haven U.S. currency. Pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine ignored a
public call by Russian President Vladimir Putin to postpone a referendum.
The U.S. wholesale
inventories increased 1.1% in March, from a 0.5% gain in February. Analysts had
forecasted that the U.S. wholesale inventories would remain unchanged.
JOLTs job openings
in the U.S. decreased 111,000 in March to 4,014,000 after increasing 251,000 to
4,125,000 in February.
The euro
plunged to 1-month lows against the U.S. dollar. The euro weakened due to the
yesterday’s ECB President Mario Draghi comments that the ECB could ease
monetary policy in June to tackle low inflation.
German
trade surplus trade decreased to €14.8 billion in March, from €15.8 billion in
February. February’s figure was revised up from a surplus of €15.7 billion.
Analysts had expected a rise to €16.6 billion.
The British
pound dropped against the U.S. dollar after the release of the good economic
data and as investors locked in profits after a strong rally. The U.K.
manufacturing production climbed 0.5% in March (February: +1.0%). Analysts had
expected a 0.3% rise. The U.K trade deficit declined to £8.48 billion in March,
from £8.75 billion in February. February’s figure was revised down from £9.09
billion. Analysts had forecasted an increase of the deficit to £9.00 billion.
The strong economic data strengthens the speculation that the Bank of England
will hike interest rates in the first half of the next year.
NIESR increased
the GDP forecast for U.K. to 1.0%, from a 0.9% rise in the previous month. The research
organisation said it expected GDP to reach its first quarter 2008 level within
a short time.
The
Canadian dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar due to weak labour data from
Canada. The unemployment rate remained unchanged by 6.9% in April. The number
of employed people decreased by 28,900 in April, from a 42,900 rise in March.
Analysts had expected a 12,800 increase.
The New
Zealand dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to the weak Chinese
inflation and the increasing demand for the safe-haven U.S. currency. China's
consumer price index (CPI) increased 1.8% year-on-year in April, the lowest
inflation rate in 18 months. Analysts had expected a 2.1% gain. China’s
producer price index (PPI) declined 2.0% year-on-year in April. Analysts had
forecasted a decline of 1.8%. No economic data was published in New Zealand.
The
Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia
said in its statement that the current accommodative monetary policy is
appropriate for some time. The RBA increased its growth forecast for the
current quarter from 2.75% to 3%, and lowered its inflation outlook to a 2.75%
increase year-on-year, from 3.00% in its February statement.
The
Japanese yen traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Japan's leading
economic index declined to 106.5 in March, from 108.7 in February. February's
figure was revised down from 113.5.
Japan's coincident index was up to 114.0 in
March, from 112.9 in February. February's figure was revised down from 113.0.
EUR/USD $1.3780, $1.3790, $1.3800, $1.3810-20, $1.3825, $1.3835, $1.3845, $1.3870-80, $1.3900, $1.3950
USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.50, Y102.40, Y102.75, Y103.00
AUD/USD $0.9250, $0.9275, $0.9300, $0.9350-60
USD/CAD C$1.0860, C$1.0895, C$1.0900, C$1.0920, C$1.0950
The Canadian dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar due to weak labour data from Canada. The unemployment rate remained unchanged by 6.9% in April. The number of employed people decreased by 28,900 in April, from a 42,900 rise in March. Analysts had expected a 12,800 increase.
Economic
calendar (GMT0):
01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy
Statement
01:30 China PPI y/y April -2.3%
-1.8% -2.0%
01:30 China CPI y/y
April +2.4% +2.1%
+1.8%
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index March 108.7 106.5
05:00 Japan Coincident Index March 112.9 114.0
06:00 Germany Current Account March 13.9 19.5
06:00 Germany Trade Balance March 15.8
16.9 14.8
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) March
+0.9% -0.1% -0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) March +2.7% +2.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) March +1.0%
+0.3% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) March
+3.8% +3.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods March
-9.7 -9.0 -8.5
The U.S.
dollar traded higher against the most major currencies. The U.S. currency was
supported by the better-than-expected number of initial jobless claims,
published on Thursday, and concerns over tensions in Ukraine. Pro-Russia
separatists in eastern Ukraine ignored a public call by Russian President
Vladimir Putin to postpone a referendum. Investors favour the safe-haven
currency.
The euro plunged
to 1-week lows against the U.S. dollar. The euro weakened due to the
yesterday’s ECB President Mario Draghi comments that the ECB could ease
monetary policy in June to tackle low inflation.
German
trade surplus trade decreased to €14.8 billion in March, from €15.8 billion in
February. February’s figure was revised up from a surplus of €15.7 billion. Analysts
had expected a rise to €16.6 billion.
The British
pound dropped against the U.S. dollar after the release of the good economic
data and as investors locked in profits after a strong rally. The U.K.
manufacturing production climbed 0.5% in March (February: +1.0%). Analysts had
expected a 0.3% rise. The U.K trade deficit declined to £8.48 billion in March,
from £8.75 billion in February. February’s figure was revised down from £9.09
billion. Analysts had forecasted an increase of the deficit to £9.00 billion.
The strong economic data strengthens the speculation that the Bank of England
will hike interest rates in the first half of the next year.
EUR/USD:
the currency pair declined to $1.3773
GBP/USD:
the currency pair fell to $1.6846
USD/JPY:
the currency pair traded mixed
The most
important news that are expected (GMT0):
12:30 Canada Employment April 42.9
14.9
12:30 Canada Unemployment rate April 6.9%
6.9%
14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate April
+0.9%
14:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings April
4173 4210
22:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana
Kocherlakota
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3995/000, $1.3950/60, $1.3930/35, $1.3890-900, $1.3870/75, $1.3860, $1.3825/30
Bids $1.3800/790, $1.3775, $1.3705/00
GBP/USD
Offers $1.7010-20, $1.7000, $1.6950
Bids $1.6900, $1.6885/75, $1.6850
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9450, $0.9400, $0.9375/80
Bids $0.9305/00, $0.9255/50, $0.9220, $0.9200
EUR/JPY
Offers Y141.50, Y141.00
Bids Y140.25/20, Y140.00, Y139.50, Y139.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y102.50, Y102.00
Bids Y101.35/30, Y101.20, Y101.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8220-30, stg0.8190/200
Bids stg0.8150, stg0.8120, stg0.8100
The U.S. dollar hits the low of May 02, 2014 against the euro. Market participants have concerns over tensions in Ukraine. Pro-Russia
separatists in eastern Ukraine ignored a public call by Russian President
Vladimir Putin to postpone a referendum. Investors favor the safe-haven currency.
EUR/USD $1.3780, $1.3790, $1.3800, $1.3810-20, $1.3825, $1.3835, $1.3845, $1.3870-80, $1.3900, $1.3950
USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.50, Y102.40, Y102.75, Y103.00
AUD/USD $0.9250, $0.9275, $0.9300, $0.9350-60
USD/CAD C$1.0860, C$1.0895, C$1.0900, C$1.0920, C$1.0950
The Reserve Bank of Australia released its quarterly monetary policy statement:
- The current accommodative monetary policy is appropriate for some time;
- The RBA increased its growth forecast for the current quarter from 2.75% to 3%, and;
- The RBA lowered its near-term inflation outlook to a 2.75% increase year-on-year, from 3.00% in its February statement.
Economic
calendar (GMT0):
01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
01:30 China PPI y/y April -2.3% -1.8% -2.0%
01:30 China CPI y/y April +2.4% +2.1% +1.8%
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index March 108.7 106.5
05:00 Japan Coincident Index March 112.9 114.0
06:00 Germany Current Account March 13.9 19.5
06:00 Germany Trade Balance March 15.8 16.9 14.8
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) March +0.9% -0.1% -0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) March +2.7% +2.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) March +1.0% +0.3% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) March +3.8% +3.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods March -9.7 -9.0 -8.5
The U.S.
dollar traded higher against the most major currencies. The U.S. currency was
supported by the yesterday’s ECB President Mario Draghi comments that the ECB
could ease monetary policy in June to tackle low inflation, and the
better-than-expected number of initial jobless claims, published on Thursday.
The New Zealand dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to the weak Chinese inflation, but later recovered its losses. China's consumer price index (CPI) increased 1.8% year-on-year in April, the lowest inflation rate in 18 months. Analysts had expected a 2.1% gain. China’s producer price index (PPI) declined 2.0% year-on-year in April. Analysts had forecasted a decline of 1.8%. No economic data was published in New Zealand.
The
Australian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar due to the Reserve Bank of
Australia (RBA) monetary policy statement and the weak Chinese inflation, but
later recovered its losses. The RBA said in its statement that the current
accommodative monetary policy is appropriate for some time.
The RBA increased
its growth forecast for the current quarter from 2.75% to 3%, and lowered its inflation
outlook to a 2.75% increase year-on-year, from 3.00% in its February statement.
The
Japanese yen traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Japan's leading economic index declined to 106.5 in March, from 108.7 in February. February's figure was revised down from 113.5.
Japan's coincident index was up to 114.0 in March, from 112.9 in February. February's figure was revised down from 113.0.
EUR/USD:
the currency pair traded mixed
GBP/USD:
the currency pair declined to $1.6915
USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y101.75
The most
important news that are expected (GMT0):
12:30 Canada Employment April 42.9 14.9
12:30 Canada Unemployment rate April 6.9% 6.9%
14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate April +0.9%
14:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings April 4173 4210
22:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3951 (2620)
$1.3900 (5052)
$1.3872 (2203)
Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3839
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3830 (337)
$1.3793 (4191)
$1.3747 (2265)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is 29592 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (5052);
- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 37901 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3800 (4191);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.28 versus 1.28 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 8
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.7200 (1066)
$1.7100 (1283)
$1.7000 (4232)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.6924
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.6899 (1142)
$1.6800 (1361)
$1.6700 (1028)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is 22459 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (4232);
- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 22779 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1869);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.01 versus 0.98 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 8
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
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