Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 12-05-2014

01:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter I +3.5% [Revised From +3.4%] +3.2%

01:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) Quarter I +9.3%

01:30 Australia Home Loans March +2.3% +1.1%

05:30 China Retail Sales y/y April +12.2% +12.2%

05:30 China Industrial Production y/y April +8.8% +8.9%

05:30 China Fixed Asset Investment April +17.6% +17.8%

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment May 61.2 63.5

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment May 43.2 41.3

09:30 Australia Annual Budget Release 2014

12:30 U.S. Retail sales April +1.2% [Revised From +1.1%] +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto April +0.7% +0.6%

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index April +0.6% +0.4%

14:00 U.S. Business inventories March +0.4% +0.4%

14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Review

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories May -1.8

21:00 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m April +3.4%

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report May

21:05 New Zealand RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Speaks

22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales, q/q Quarter I +1.2% +0.9%

22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales ex Autos, q/q Quarter I +0.7% +0.9%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. Increasing concerns over tensions in Ukraine had a negative impact on markets. Pro-Russian separatists said that the referendum held in two regions of eastern Ukraine proved successful. Both Ukrainian government and the West condemned the vote. Later in the day, the Congressional Budget Office will release the U.S. federal budget balance.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in the Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar. Market participants remained unimpressed by the Swiss economic data. Swiss retail sales increased 3.0%, from a 1.2% rise in February. February’s figure was revised up from 1.0%. Analysts had expected a 1.9% increase.

The British pound climbed against the U.S., but later lost a part of its gains. The British currency was supported by expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates in the first quarter of the next year.

The Canadian dollar recovered a part of its Friday’s losses against the U.S. dollar.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar increased against the U.S., but later lost its gains. The Australian currency was supported by good economic data from Australia. The National Australia Bank’s business confidence index increased to 6 in April, from 4.1 in March.

EUR/USD $1.3750, $1.3760, $1.3805/10, $1.3825, $1.3925

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.60, Y101.80, Y102.35

USD/CAD Cad1.0885, Cad1.0915

AUD/USD $0.9240, $0.9300, 0.9350/60, $0.9410

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

EUR/NOK Nok8.1500

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                National Australia Bank's Business Confidence April      4.1                    6.0

05:00    Japan                    Eco Watchers Survey: Current                     April      57.9      45.2     41.6

05:00    Japan                    Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook                     April      34.7                  50.3

07:15    Switzerland            Retail Sales Y/Y                                              March +1.2%  +1.9% +3.0%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies. Increasing concerns over tensions in Ukraine had a negative impact on markets. Pro-Russian separatists said that the referendum held in two regions of eastern Ukraine proved successful. Both Ukrainian government and the West condemned the vote. Later in the day, the Congressional Budget Office will release the U.S. federal budget balance.

The euro was up against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in the Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Market participants remained unimpressed by the Swiss economic data. Swiss retail sales increased 3.0%, from a 1.2% rise in February. February’s figure was revised up from 1.0%. Analysts had expected a 1.9% increase.

The British pound climbed against the U.S. The British currency was supported by expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates in the first quarter of the next year.

The Canadian dollar recovered a part of its Friday’s losses against the U.S. dollar.

EUR/USD: the currency pair was up to $1.3775

GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.6903

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

16:00    U.S.                       FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks                                                           

18:00    U.S.                       Federal budget                          April      -36.9     112.6   

23:01    United Kingdom     BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y      April      -1.7%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3930/35, $1.3890-900, $1.3870/75, $1.3860, $1.3825/30, $1.3810

Bids $1.3735, $1.3705/00, $1.3650/40, $1.3600

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7010-20, $1.7000, $1.6950, $1.6930

Bids $1.6810/00, $1.6765, $1.6715, $1.6700

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9450, $0.9400, $0.9380

Bids $0.9345, $0.9305/00, $0.9255/50, $0.9220, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.35/45, Y142.00, Y141.50, Y141.00

Bids Y139.85, Y139.50,  Y139.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.00, Y102.50, Y102.10/20,

Bids Y101.50, Y101.35/30, Y101.20, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8220/30, stg0.8190/200

Bids stg0.8150, stg0.8120, stg0.8100

EUR/USD $1.3750, $1.3760, $1.3805/10, $1.3825, $1.3925

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.60, Y101.80, Y102.35

USD/CAD Cad1.0885, Cad1.0915

AUD/USD $0.9240, $0.9300, 0.9350/60, $0.9410

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

EUR/NOK Nok8.1500

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                National Australia Bank's Business Confidence April      4.1                    6.0

05:00    Japan                    Eco Watchers Survey: Current                     April      57.9      45.2     41.6

05:00    Japan                    Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook                     April      34.7                  50.3

07:15    Switzerland            Retail Sales Y/Y                                              March +1.2%  +1.9% +3.0%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies. Increasing concerns over Ukraine had a negative impact on markets. Pro-Russian separatists said that the referendum held in two regions of eastern Ukraine proved successful. Both Ukrainian government and the West condemned the vote. Later in the day, the Congressional Budget Office will release the U.S. federal budget balance.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. The Australian currency was supported by good economic data from Australia. The National Australia Bank’s business confidence index increased to 6 in April, from 4.1 in March.

The Japanese yen declined against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected Japanese economic data. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has released the current account figures. The current account surplus decreased to 116.4 billion yen in March, 612.7 billion yen in February. Analysts had expected a surplus of 347.7 billion yen.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y102.05

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

16:00    U.S.                       FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks                                                            

18:00    U.S.                       Federal budget                          April      -36.9     112.6    

23:01    United Kingdom     BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y      April      -1.7%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3861 (1882)

$1.3835 (903)

$1.3797 (683)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3764

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3731 (257)

$1.3702 (1998)

$1.3660 (2658)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 40960 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4629);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 63555 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6807);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.55 versus 1.28 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 9

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7102 (1748)

$1.7004 (1982)

$1.6907 (1474)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6855

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6792 (1187)

$1.6696 (718)

$1.6598 (1084)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 20022 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (1982);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 18589 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1914);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.93 versus 1.01 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 9

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.