Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 14-05-2014

EUR/USD $1,3714 +0,08%

GBP/USD $1,6765 -0,36%

USD/CHF Chf0,8896 -0,04%

USD/JPY Y101,84 -0,40%

EUR/JPY Y139,65 -0,34%

GBP/JPY Y170,72 -0,77%

AUD/USD $0,9375 +0,18%

NZD/USD $0,8663 +0,27%

USD/CAD C$1,0887 -0,18%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) April -0.3%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) April -2.8%

04:25 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence April 37.5 38.3

05:30 France GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.3% +0.4%

05:30 France GDP, Y/Y (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.8%

06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.4% +0.7%

06:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter I +1.3%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m April 0.0% +0.3%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y April -0.7%

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report May

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI April +0.9%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) April +0.7% +0.7%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y April +0.7% +0.7%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.2% +0.4%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter I +0.4%

12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) March +1.4% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims May 319 321

12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index May 1.3 7.2

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m April +0.2% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y April +1.5%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m April +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y April +1.7%

13:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows     March 167.7

13:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows March 85.7 47.3

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) April +0.7% +0.4%

13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization April 79.2% 79.2%

14:00 U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Quarter I 6.41%

14:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey May 16.6 13.9

14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index May 47 49

16:30 Canada BOC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri Speaks

23:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies despite the better-than-expected U.S. producer price index (PPI). The U.S. producer price index increased 0.6% in April, from a 0.5% rise in March. This is the fastest growth since September 2012. Analysts had expected a 0.2% gain. The year-on-year PPI climbed 2.1% in April, from a 1.4% rise in March.

The U.S. PPI excluding food and energy increased 0.5% in April (March: +0.6%). Analysts had forecasted a 0.2% rise. The year-on-year excluding food and energy gained 1.9% in April, from a 1.4% rise in March.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The industrial production in the Eurozone decreased 0.3% in March, from a 0.3% increase in February. Analysts had expected this figure. The year-on year rate of the industrial production in the Eurozone decreased 0.1% in March, from a 1.7% increase in February.

The euro also remained under pressure due to possible additional stimulus measures from the ECB next month.

The British pound hits 3-week lows against the U.S. dollar after the release of the BoE’s quarterly inflation report and the U.K. labour market figures. The BoE left its GDP outlook at 3.4% for this year that indicates the BoE could delay the interest rate hike. But the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that the British economy is moving closer to the point of needing tighter policy.

The U.K. unemployment rate declined to 6.8% in March, from 6.9% in February. The claimant count dropped by 25,100 in April, compared to a decline of 30,400 people in March. Analysts had expected a decrease of 31,200 people.

The Canadian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any significant economic data.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar despite the lower-than-expected retail sales data from New Zealand. Retail sales in New Zealand increased 0.7% in the first quarter, from a 1.2% rise in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected a 0.9% increase. Retail sales excluding automobiles and gas stations climbed 0.8% in the first quarter, from a 1% increase in the previous quarter. The fourth quarter figure was revised up from 0.7%. Analysts had forecasted a 0.9% gain.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released its Financial Stability Report. House sales declined 11% between October and March since the central bank imposed the restrictions on high loan-to-value ratio lending.

The Australian dollar increased to 1-month highs against the U.S. dollar, supported by the Australian federal budget 2014, but later lost a part of its gains. Australia's Treasury released the federal budget for 2014 – 2015 on Tuesday. Australia's treasurer Joe Hockey said that the government aims to halve its budget deficit over the next year. The Australian government wants to cut tax increases and spending cuts in the budget to achieve its goal. Australia's Treasury forecast a deficit of A$29.8 billion during the twelve months ended June 2015. The real GDP should grow 2.5% in 2014 – 2015.

The Japanese yen increased against the U.S. dollar, supported by the better-than-expected economic data out of Japan and the increasing demand for the safe-haven currency. Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) increased 4.1% in April, from a 1.7% rise in March. Machine tool orders (preliminary) rose 48.8% in April, from a 41.8% gain in March.

The Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney said at the press conference following the release of the BoE’s quarterly inflation report:

• The BoE will increase interest rates when the UK economy returned to normal;
  
• The British economy is moving closer to the point of needing tighter policy;
  
• The interest rate hike would be "gradual and limited.”
  

EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3775, $1.3810

USD/JPY Y101.25, Y101.65, Y101.70, Y102.50

USD/CAD Cad1.0850, Cad1.1000

AUD/USD $0.9300, $0.9380, $0.9420

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

EUR/JPY Y140.70

Economic calendar (GMT0):

06:00    Germany             CPI, m/m (Finally)                               April      -0.2%    -0.2%     -0.3%

06:00    Germany             CPI, y/y (Finally)                                 April      +1.3%   +1.3%    +1.1%

06:00    Japan                  Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y         April      +41.8%               +48.8%

06:45    France                 CPI, m/m                                           April      +0.4%   +0.2%      0.0%

06:45    France                 CPI, y/y                                             April      +0.6%                 +0.8%

08:30    United Kingdom   Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y April      +1.4%                  +1.3%

08:30    United Kingdom   Average Earnings, 3m/y                     March     +1.7%   +2.2%  +1.7%

08:30    United Kingdom   Claimant count                                   April      -30.4      -31.2       -25.1

08:30    United Kingdom   Claimant Count Rate                          April        3.4%                    3.3%

08:30    United Kingdom   ILO Unemployment Rate                    March     6.9%      6.8%      6.8%

09:00    Eurozone             Industrial production, (MoM)               March     +0.2%   -0.3%     -0.3%

09:00    Eurozone             Industrial Production (YoY)                 March    +1.7%                  -0.1%

09:00    Switzerland          Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) March   7.0                      7.4

09:30    United Kingdom   BOE Inflation Letter                           Quarter II                                         

09:30    United Kingdom   BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks                                                

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies ahead of the release of producer price index (PPI) in the U.S. The U.S. producer price index should increase 0.2% in April, from a 0.5% rise in March. The U.S. producer price index excluding food and energy should climb 0.2% in April, from a 0.6% increase in March.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar. The industrial production in the Eurozone decreased 0.3% in March, from a 0.3% increase in February. Analysts had expected this figure. The year-on year rate of the industrial production in the Eurozone decreased 0.1% in March, from a 1.7% increase in February.

The euro also remained under pressure due to possible additional stimulus measures from the ECB next month.

The British pound hits 3-week lows against the U.S. dollar after the release of the BoE’s quarterly inflation report and the U.K. labour market figures. The BoE left its GDP outlook at 3.4% for this year that indicates the BoE could delay the interest rate hike. But the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that the British economy is moving closer to the point of needing tighter policy.

The U.K. unemployment rate declined to 6.8% in March, from 6.9% in February. The claimant count dropped by 25,100 in April, compared to a decline of 30,400 people in March. Analysts had expected a decrease of 31,200 people.

EUR/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.3731

GBP/USD: the currency pair dropped to $1.6756

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.71

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    U.S.                       PPI, m/m                                           April      +0.5%  +0.2% 

12:30    U.S.                       PPI, y/y                                             April      +1.4%                

12:30    U.S.                       PPI excluding food and energy, m/m April      +0.6%  +0.2% 

12:30    U.S.                       PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y   April      +1.4%                

14:30    Eurozone               ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks                                                                  

22:30    New Zealand          Business NZ PMI                                 April      58.4                    

23:50    Japan                    Tertiary Industry Index                      March     -1.0%   +2.5% 

23:50    Japan                    GDP, q/q (Preliminary)                       Quarter I +0.2%  +1.0% 

23:50    Japan                    GDP, y/y                                           Quarter I +2.6%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3870/75, $1.3860, $1.3825/30, $1.3810, $1.3770/75

Bids $1.3685, $1.3650/40, $1.3620, $1.3600

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7010-20, $1.7000, $1.6950, $1.6930, $1.6900/05, $1.6815/20

Bids $1.6750, $1.6715, $1.6700

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9500, $0.9450/60, $0.9425

Bids $0.9320, $0.9305/00, $0.9255/50, $0.9220, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.00, Y141.50, Y141.00, Y140.40.

Bids Y139.85, Y139.50,  Y139.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.00, Y102.80, Y102.40/50

Bids Y101.50, Y101.35/30, Y101.20, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8250/60, stg0.8220/30, stg0.8190/200

Bids stg0.8130, stg0.8120, stg0.8100

The currency pair USD/JPY declined to Y101.71 due to the increasing demand for the safe-haven currency.

The currency pair GBP/USD declines to 3-week-lows after the release of the BoE’s quarterly Inflation report. The BoE left its GDP outlook at 3.4% for this year that indicates the BoE could delay the interest rate hike.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler said today:

- The financial system in New Zealand remains sound, but there are still risks from the high levels of debt in the household and dairy sectors;

- House prices are overvalued;

- A potential decrease in China's property prices and shadow financing system is a risk for New Zealand;

- Strong deposit growth has helped to reduce the reliance of the banking system on offshore funding.

• The Bank of England left forecasts for economic growth and inflation almost unchanged;
  
• The Bank of England expects continued growth in house prices in the coming months;
  
• Acceleration of productivity growth should neutralize some of the inflationary pressure;
  
• The interest rate hike will be gradual to a level below its pre-crisis average;
  
• The recent strengthening of the pound limits inflation;
  
• Unemployment rate will decline faster than expected in February;
  
• Inflation will be closer to the target level of 2% over the next two to three years;
  
• The U.K. GDP should grow by 2.9% in 2015 and by 2.8% in 2016;
  
• The Bank of England still expects the GDP growth by 3.4 % in 2014;
  
• The Bank of England signalled that it could raise the interest rate at the end of the 1st quarter or in the 2nd quarter 2015.
  

EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3775, $1.3810

USD/JPY Y101.25, Y101.65, Y101.70, Y102.50

USD/CAD Cad1.0850, Cad1.1000

AUD/USD $0.9300, $0.9380, $0.9420

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

EUR/JPY Y140.70

Economic calendar (GMT0):

06:00    Germany             CPI, m/m (Finally)                               April      -0.2%    -0.2%     -0.3%

06:00    Germany             CPI, y/y (Finally)                                 April      +1.3%   +1.3%    +1.1%

06:00    Japan                  Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y         April      +41.8%               +48.8%

06:45    France                 CPI, m/m                                           April      +0.4%   +0.2%      0.0%

06:45    France                 CPI, y/y                                             April      +0.6%                 +0.8%

08:30    United Kingdom   Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y April      +1.4%                  +1.3%

08:30    United Kingdom   Average Earnings, 3m/y                     March     +1.7%   +2.2%  +1.7%

08:30    United Kingdom   Claimant count                                   April      -30.4      -31.2       -25.1

08:30    United Kingdom   Claimant Count Rate                          April        3.4%                    3.3%

08:30    United Kingdom   ILO Unemployment Rate                    March     6.9%      6.8%      6.8%

09:00    Eurozone             Industrial production, (MoM)               March     +0.2%   -0.3%     -0.3%

09:00    Eurozone             Industrial Production (YoY)                 March    +1.7%                  -0.1%

09:00    Switzerland          Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) March   7.0                      7.4

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies. Yesterday’s released U.S. retail sales has been weaker than expected. U.S. retail sales increased 0.1% in April, from a 1.2% rise in March. March’s figure was revised up from 1.1%. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.5%. U.S. retail sales excluding autos were flat in April (March: +0.7%). Analysts had forecasted a 0.6% increase.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar despite the lower-than-expected retail sales data from New Zealand. Retail sales in New Zealand increased 0.7% in the first quarter, from a 1.2% rise in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected a 0.9% increase. Retail sales excluding automobiles and gas stations climbed 0.8% in the first quarter, from a 1% increase in the previous quarter. The fourth quarter figure was revised up from 0.7%. Analysts had forecasted a 0.9% gain.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released its Financial Stability Report. House sales declined 11% between October and March since the central bank imposed the restrictions on high loan-to-value ratio lending.

The Australian dollar increased to 1-month highs against the U.S. dollar, supported by the Australian federal budget 2014. Australia's Treasury released the federal budget for 2014 – 2015 on Tuesday. Australia's treasurer Joe Hockey said that the government aims to halve its budget deficit over the next year. The Australian government wants to cut tax increases and spending cuts in the budget to achieve its goal. Australia's Treasury forecast a deficit of A$29.8 billion during the twelve months ended June 2015. The real GDP should grow 2.5% in 2014 – 2015.

The Japanese yen increased against the U.S. dollar, supported by the better-than-expected economic data out of Japan. Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) increased 4.1% in April, from a 1.7% rise in March. Machine tool orders (preliminary) rose 48.8% in April, from a 41.8% gain in March.

EUR/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.3720

GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.6870

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y102.10

AUD/USD: the currency pair climbed to $0.9397

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:30    United Kingdom     BOE Inflation Letter                           Quarter II                                          

09:30    United Kingdom     BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks                                                

12:30    U.S.                       PPI, m/m                                           April      +0.5%  +0.2%  

12:30    U.S.                       PPI, y/y                                             April      +1.4%                 

12:30    U.S.                       PPI excluding food and energy, m/m April      +0.6%  +0.2%  

12:30    U.S.                       PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y   April      +1.4%                 

14:30    Eurozone               ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks                                                                  

22:30    New Zealand          Business NZ PMI                                 April      58.4                     

23:50    Japan                    Tertiary Industry Index                      March     -1.0%   +2.5%  

23:50    Japan                    GDP, q/q (Preliminary)                       Quarter I +0.2%  +1.0%  

23:50    Japan                    GDP, y/y                                           Quarter I +2.6%

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3808 (1447)

$1.3781 (2331)

$1.3744 (556)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3719

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3689 (263)

$1.3656 (3395)

$1.3616 (6732)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 43807 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4814);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 66254 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6732);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.51 versus 1.55 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 13

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7101 (1814)

$1.7003 (2671)

$1.6906 (1732)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6863

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6792 (1223)

$1.6696 (1855)

$1.6598 (1218)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 22091 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2671);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 21992 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1914);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 13

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.