Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 16-05-2014

EUR/USD $1.3675-80, $1.3700-10, $1.3720, $1.3750, $1.3775, $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.15-20, Y101.50, Y101.60, Y101.80, Y102.00, Y102.35, Y102.50-55

GBP/USD $1.6680-85, $1.6750, $1.6775, $1.6800

AUD/USD $0.9355

USD/CAD C$1.0825, C$1.0845-50, C$1.0875, C$1.1000

U.S. building permits increased to 1.080 million units in April, from 1.000 million units in March. March’s figure was revised up from 0.990 million units. Analysts had expected an increase to 1.010 million units. That was the highest level since 2008.

U.S. housing starts rose to 1.072 million units in April, from 0.947 million in March. March’s figure was revised up from 0.946 million units. Analysts had forecasted an increase to 0.980 million units. That was the best figure since November 2013

The sharp rise of the U.S. housing starts was driven by a big jump in multifamily homes. Construction of multifamily homes was up almost 40.0%. Construction of single-family homes increased only 0.8%.

EUR/USD

Ордера на продажу $1.3870/75, $1.3860, $1.3825/30, $1.3810, $1.3770/75

Ордера на покупку $1.3650/40, $1.3620, $1.3600, $1.3560

GBP/USD

Ордера на продажу $1.7000, $1.6950, $1.6930, $1.6900/05, $1.6815/20

Ордера на покупку $1.6715, $1.6700, $1.6660, $1.6600

AUD/USD

Ордера на продажу $0.9500, $0.9450/60, $0.9425, $0.9390

Ордера на покупку $0.9320, $0.9305/00, $0.9255/50, $0.9220

EUR/JPY

Ордера на продажу Y142.00, Y141.50, Y141.00, Y140.40, Y139.85/95

Ордера на покупку Y138.00/95, Y138.70, Y138.60, Y138.10/00

USD/JPY

Ордера на продажу Y103.00, Y102.80, Y102.40/50, Y102.00/10

Ордера на покупку Y101.30, Y101.20, Y101.00, Y100.75

EUR/GBP

Ордера на продажу stg0.8250/60, stg0.8220/30, stg0.8200

Ордера на покупку stg0.8130, stg0.8120, stg0.8100

Economic calendar (GMT0):

04:30    Japan        Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) March       +0.3%    +0.3%   +0.7%

04:30    Japan        Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally)  March        +7.0%                 +7.4%

06:45    France       Non-Farm Payrolls (Preliminary)       Quarter I    +0.1%    -0.1%    -0.1%

09:00    Eurozone   Trade Balance s.a.                           March         15.0       17.3       15.2

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the release of the U.S. housing data. U.S. building permits should increase to 1.010 million in April, from 1.000 million in March. March’s figure was revised up from 0.990 million. U.S. housing starts should rise to 0.980 million in April, from 0.946 million in March. Later in the day, Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released. The index should climb to 84.7 in April, from 84.1 in March.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar. The weak GDP growth in the Eurozone continued to weigh on the euro. The new stimulus measures by ECB in June are more likely after the release of several weak economic data in the Eurozone.

Eurozone’s trade balance surplus climbed to 15.2 billion euro in March, from 15.0 in February. Analysts had expected an increase to 17.3 billion euro.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in the U.K.

EUR/USD: the currency pair dropped to $1.3684

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.6813

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.35

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada  Foreign Securities Purchases                                                 March     6.08      7.21     

12:30    U.S.      Building Permits, mln                                                              April      1.000    1.010   

12:30    U.S.      Housing Starts, mln                                                                April      0.946    0.980   

13:55    U.S.      Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary)     April      84.1      84.7

EUR/USD $1.3675-80, $1.3700-10, $1.3720, $1.3750, $1.3775, $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.15-20, Y101.50, Y101.60, Y101.80, Y102.00, Y102.35, Y102.50-55

GBP/USD $1.6680-85, $1.6750, $1.6775, $1.6800

AUD/USD $0.9355

USD/CAD C$1.0825, C$1.0845-50, C$1.0875, C$1.1000

Economic calendar (GMT0):

04:30    Japan        Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) March       +0.3%    +0.3%   +0.7%

04:30    Japan        Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally)  March        +7.0%                 +7.4%

06:45    France       Non-Farm Payrolls (Preliminary)       Quarter I    +0.1%    -0.1%    -0.1%

09:00    Eurozone   Trade Balance s.a.                           March         15.0       17.3       15.2

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies after yesterday’s release of the mixed U.S. economic data. The U.S. consumer price index increased 0.3% in April. That was the biggest rise since June last year. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave brief remarks Thursday at a National Small Business Week Event held at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. But she said nothing about current monetary policy. Janet Yellen explained that job creation is very important for economic recovery and the Fed “tries to promote the conditions to foster job creation”. Investors favoured safe-haven assets.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Investors continue to back the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Investors favoured safe-haven assets. No economic data was published in Australia.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The yen was supported by the demand for safe-haven currency and the better-than-expected Japanese industrial production. The industrial production in Japan increased 0.7% in March, from a 0.3% gain in February. Analysts had expected a 0.3% increase. On a yearly basis, the Japanese industrial production rose 7.4% in March, from a 7.0% increase in February.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada  Foreign Securities Purchases                                                 March     6.08      7.21      

12:30    U.S.      Building Permits, mln                                                              April      1.000    1.010    

12:30    U.S.      Housing Starts, mln                                                                April      0.946    0.980    

13:55    U.S.      Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary)     April      84.1      84.7

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3848 (2503)

$1.3794 (2447)

$1.3758 (553)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3715

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3681 (2000)

$1.3645 (2986)

$1.3620 (6786)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 46021 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4916);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 69946 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6786);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.52 versus 1.52 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 15

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7101 (1828)

$1.7002 (2688)

$1.6904 (1861)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6788

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6695 (1923)

$1.6598 (1516)

$1.6499 (1227)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 22829 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2688);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 22833 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (1923);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 15

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.