Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 19-05-2014

00:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index March +0.3%

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

03:15 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m March -1.1% +1.6%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) April -0.3% 0.0%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) April -0.9% -0.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m April +0.2% +0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y April +2.5% +2.6%

08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y April +2.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) April -0.6% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) April -6.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) April +0.2% +0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) April +0.5% +0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y April +1.6%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m April +0.2% +0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y April +1.6% +1.7%

12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m March +1.1% +0.5%

16:30 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories May +0.9

23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln April -1714.2 -600.0

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies due to concerns over the economic growth in China and concerns over tensions in Ukraine and in Vietnam. China’s financial regulators tightened rules on bank lending on Friday. Limited credit could inhibit economic growth.

Clashes between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists continued on Monday.

Violent anti-Chinese protests continued in Vietnam. China and Vietnam have been arguing for decades over the islands in the South China Sea.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Market participants are awaiting new stimulus measures by ECB next month. Eurozone’s construction output declined 0.6% in March from a 0.1% increase in February. On a yearly basis, Eurozone’s construction output climbed 5.2% in March from a 6.7% gain in February.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. After AstraZeneca rejected Pfizer’s offer, the British currency came under pressure.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The kiwi was supported by the better-than-expected economic data out of New Zealand. Producer price index input in New Zealand climbed 1% in the first quarter, from a 0.7% decline in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected a 0.4% gain.

Producer price index output in New Zealand increased 0.9% in the first quarter, from a 0.4% decline in the previous quarter. Analysts had forecasted a 0.7% rise.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in Australia.

The Japanese yen hits 3.5-month highs against the U.S. dollar. The yen was supported by the demand for safe-haven assets and the better-than-expected Japanese core machinery orders. The core machinery orders in Japan increased 19.1% in March, from a 4.6% gain in February. That was the record growth in March. February’s figure was revised up from an 8.8% decrease. Analysts had expected a 6.0% increase. On a yearly basis, the Japanese core machinery orders rose 16.1% in March, from a 10.8% increase in February. Analysts had forecasted a 4.3% gain.

EUR/USD $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3750/60

USD/JPY Y101.35, Y101.50/55, Y102.00, Y102.20/25

USD/CAD Cad1.0850

AUD/USD $0.9315

GBP/USD $1.6695, $1.6925

NZD/USD NZ$0.8570

Economic calendar (GMT0):

07:00    Eurozone      ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks                                                

09:00    Eurozone      Construction Output, m/m        March   +0.1%                  -0.6%

09:00    Eurozone      Construction Output, y/y          March   +6.7%                  +5.2%

10:00    Germany      Bundesbank Monthly Report      May      

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies due to concerns over the economic growth in China. China’s financial regulators tightened rules on bank lending on Friday. Limited credit could inhibit economic growth.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar. Market participants are awaiting new stimulus measures by ECB next month. Eurozone’s construction output declined 0.6% in March from a 0.1% increase in February. On a yearly basis, Eurozone’s construction output climbed 5.2% in March from a 6.7% gain in February.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. After AstraZeneca rejected Pfizer’s offer, the British currency came under pressure.

EUR/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.3724

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.09

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3800, $1.3780, $1.3750, $1.3730/35

Bids $1.3675

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.6940/50, $1.6900/05, $1.6880/85

Bids 

AUD/USD

Offers  $0.9450, $0.9400, $0.9375/80

Bids  $0.9325/20, $0.9305/00, $0.9255/50

EUR/JPY

Offers  Y139.95/00,  Y139.75/80,  Y139.00

Bids  Y138.50, Y138.00, Y137.50

USD/JPY

Offers  Y102.00, Y101.80, Y101.65/70, Y101.40/45

Bids Y101.10/05, Y100.50, Y100.00

EUR/GBP

Offers  stg0.8215-25, stg0.8195/205, stg0.8160

Bids  stg0.8125/20, stg0.8100, stg0.8050

EUR/USD $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3750/60

USD/JPY Y101.35, Y101.50/55, Y102.00, Y102.20/25

USD/CAD Cad1.0850

AUD/USD $0.9315

GBP/USD $1.6695, $1.6925

NZD/USD NZ$0.8570

Economic calendar (GMT0):

07:00    Eurozone       ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies after Friday’s release of the disappointing U.S. consumer sentiment. The preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 81.8 in May, from 84.1 in April. Analysts had expected an increase to 84.7.

The New Zealand dollar increased against the U.S. dollar, but later lost a part of its gains. The kiwi was supported by the better-than-expected economic data out of New Zealand. Producer price index input in New Zealand climbed 1% in the first quarter, from a 0.7% decline in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected a 0.4% gain.

Producer price index output in New Zealand increased 0.9% in the first quarter, from a 0.4% decline in the previous quarter. Analysts had forecasted a 0.7% rise.

The Australian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in Australia.

The Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar. The yen was supported by the demand for safe-haven assets and the better-than-expected Japanese core machinery orders. The core machinery orders in Japan increased 19.1% in March, from a 4.6% gain in February. That was the record growth in March. February’s figure was revised up from an 8.8% decrease. Analysts had expected a 6.0% increase. On a yearly basis, the Japanese core machinery orders rose 16.1% in March, from a 10.8% increase in February. Analysts had forecasted a 4.3% gain.

Clashes in Ukraine’s east and anti-China violence in Vietnam increased demand for safe-haven assets.

EUR/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.3717

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.40

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00    Eurozone      Construction Output, m/m          March   +0.1%                 

09:00    Eurozone      Construction Output, y/y            March   +6.7%                 

10:00    Germany      Bundesbank Monthly Report        May

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3837 (2537)

$1.3794 (1671)

$1.3756 (723)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3704

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3660 (3389)

$1.3619 (6950)

$1.3558 (3505)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 46159 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4915);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 69789 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6950);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.51 versus 1.52 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 16

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7101 (1829)

$1.7002 (2683)

$1.6904 (1933)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6821

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6697 (2084)

$1.6599 (1494)

$1.6499 (1227)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 23003 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2683);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 23346 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2084);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.01 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.