Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 22-05-2014

02:00 China Leading Index April +1.2%

06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter I +0.8% +0.8%

06:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter I +2.2% +2.2%

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate May 111.2 111.0

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment March 115.3 115.6

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations March 107.3 106.9

09:00 Eurozone European Parliamentary Elections

12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m/m April +0.6% +0.3%

12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y April +1.5%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m April +0.3% +0.2%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y April +1.3%

13:00 Belgium Business Climate March -4.6 -4.7

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales April 384 426

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies after the release of the U.S. economic data. The initial jobless claims in the U.S. climbed by 28,000 to 326,000, from 298,000 in the previous week. Analysts had expected an increase of jobless claims by 12,000 to 310,000.

U.S. flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 56.2 in May, from 55.4 in April. Analysts had forecasted a gain to 55.6.

Sales of existing homes in the U.S. climbed to 1.3% in April to an annual rate of 4.65 million units, missing expectations of a 2.2% gain to 4.68 million. That was the first increase in 2014.

The euro decreased against the U.S. dollar. Eurozone’s flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 52.5 in May, from 53.4 in April. That was the slowest growth in six months. Analysts had expected a decrease to 53.2.

Eurozone’s flash services purchasing managers' index climbed to 53.5 in May, from 53.1 in April. That was the fastest pace in almost three years. Analysts had forecasted a decrease to 53.0.

France's flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index decreased to 49.3 in May, from 51.2 in April. Analysts had expected a decline to 51.1.

France's flash services purchasing managers' index decreased to 49.2 in May, from 50.4 in April. Analysts had forecasted a fall to 50.3.

Germany's manufacturing purchasing managers' index I slid to 52.9 in May, from 54.1 in April. Analysts had expected a decline to 54.0.

Germany's services purchasing managers' index gained to 56.4 in May, from 54.7 in April. Analysts had forecasted a rise to 54.8.

The British pound declined against the U.S. dollar after the U.K. gross domestic product. U.K. gross domestic product increased 0.8% in the first quarter (Q4 2013: +0.8%). Analysts had expected this figure.

On a yearly basis, U.K. gross domestic product climbed 3.1% in the first quarter (Q4 2013: +3.1%). Analysts had expected this growth.

U.K. business investment rose by 2.7% in the first quarter, from a 2.4% gain in the previous quarter. That was the highest pace since the first quarter of 2013.

On a yearly basis, U.K. business investment climbed 8.7% in the first quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter figure.

The Confederation of British Industry released the British factory orders. The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) total order book balance was 0 in May, up from -1 in April. Analysts had expected +4.

The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar. The retail sales in Canada decreased 0.1% in March, from a 0.5% rise in February. Analysts had expected a 0.2% gain.

The Canadian retail sales excluding automobile sales climbed 0.1% in March, from a 0.6% increase in February. Analysts had forecasted a 0.5% rise.

The New Zealand dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reported its annual inflation expectations increased to 2.4% in the first quarter, from 2.3% in the previous quarter.

The kiwi was also supported by the better-than-expected Chinese economic data. China’s HSBC manufacturing index (preliminary) climbed to 49.7 in May, up from 48.1 in April. Analysts had expected an increase to 48.4.

The Australian dollar increased against the U.S. dollar after the release of inflation expectations in Australia and Chinese manufacturing data, but later lost its gains. The inflation expectation for the next 12 months rose to 4.4% in April, from 4.2% in March. March’s figure was revised up from +2.4%.

The National Association of Realtors released the U.S. existing home sales today. Sales of existing homes in the U.S. climbed to 1.3% in April to an annual rate of 4.65 million units, missing expectations of a 2.2% gain to 4.68 million. That was the first increase in 2014.

Chief economist at the National Association of Realtors Lawrence Yun said he is optimistic about the development of existing home sales.

The median home price gained 5.2% in April to $201,700 from the same period a year earlier.

The Federal Reserve expressed concern that the slow pace of the housing recovery is a risk for the broader economy's continued improvement.

The Federal Reserve released its April minutes on Wednesday:

• The Fed will keep reducing its asset purchase program;
  
• The Fed see the slow improvement in the economy and doesn’t see inflation pressure;
  
• The Federal Reserve Board of Governors agreed at their April meeting to consider a mix of tools to normalize monetary policy, but interest rate hikes aren't planned yet.
  

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:00    Australia                Consumer Inflation Expectation              May          +4.2%                 +4.4%

01:45    China                    HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)    May           48.1      48.4       49.7

03:00    New Zealand         Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now  Quarter I +2.3%                 +2.4%

06:58    France                  Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)              May           51.2      51.1       49.3

06:58    France                  Services PMI (Preliminary)                       May           50.4      50.3       49.2

07:28    Germany               Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)             May           54.1      54.0       52.9

07:28    Germany               Services PMI (Preliminary)                      May           54.7      54.8       56.4

07:58    Eurozone              Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)              May           53.4      53.2       52.5

07:58    Eurozone              Services PMI (Preliminary)                       May           53.1      53.0       53.5

08:30    United Kingdom     Business Investment, q/q                      Quarter I   +2.4%  +2.3%   +2.7%

08:30    United Kingdom     Business Investment, y/y                      Quarter I   +8.7%                +8.7%

08:30    United Kingdom     PSNB, bln                                              April          4.9         3.6        9.63

08:30    United Kingdom     GDP, q/q                                               Quarter I   +0.8%  +0.8%   +0.8%

08:30    United Kingdom     GDP, y/y                                               Quarter I   +3.1%  +3.1%   +3.1%

09:00    Eurozone               European Parliamentary Elections                                                       

10:00    United Kingdom     CBI industrial order books balance           May             -1           4             -1

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies amid the release of the U.S. economic data. The initial jobless claims in the U.S. should increase to 312,000, from 297,000 in the previous week. U.S. flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index should increase to 55.6 in May, from 55.4 in April. The existing home sales in the U.S. should rise to 4.71 million units in April, from 4.59 million units in March.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the release of the economic data in the Eurozone. Eurozone’s flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 52.5 in May, from 53.4 in April. That was the slowest growth in six months. Analysts had expected a decrease to 53.2.

Eurozone’s flash services purchasing managers' index climbed to 53.5 in May, from 53.1 in April. That was the fastest pace in almost three years. Analysts had forecasted a decrease to 53.0.

France's flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index decreased to 49.3 in May, from 51.2 in April. Analysts had expected a decline to 51.1.

France's flash services purchasing managers' index decreased to 49.2 in May, from 50.4 in April. Analysts had forecasted a fall to 50.3.

Germany's manufacturing purchasing managers' index I slid to 52.9 in May, from 54.1 in April. Analysts had expected a decline to 54.0.

Germany's services purchasing managers' index gained to 56.4 in May, from 54.7 in April. Analysts had forecasted a rise to 54.8.

The British pound declined against the U.S. dollar after the U.K. gross domestic product. U.K. gross domestic product increased 0.8% in the first quarter (Q4 2013: +0.8%). Analysts had expected this figure.

On a yearly basis, U.K. gross domestic product climbed 3.1% in the first quarter (Q4 2013: +3.1%). Analysts had expected this growth.

U.K. business investment rose by 2.7% in the first quarter, from a 2.4% gain in the previous quarter. That was the highest pace since the first quarter of 2013.

On a yearly basis, U.K. business investment climbed 8.7% in the first quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter figure.

The Confederation of British Industry released the British factory orders. The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) total order book balance was 0 in May, up from -1 in April. Analysts had expected +4.

The Canadian dollar traded little changed against the U.S. dollar ahead of the release of the Canadian retail sales. The retail sales in Canada should increase 0.2% in March, from a 0.5% rise in February. The Canadian retail sales excluding autos should climb 0.5% in March, from a 0.6% increase in February.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.6861

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada               Retail Sales, m/m                           March   +0.5%  +0.2% 

12:30    Canada               Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m             March   +0.6%  +0.5% 

12:30    U.S.                    Initial Jobless Claims                        May       297        312       

13:43    U.S.                    Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)     May       55.4      55.6     

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3770/80, $1.3750, $1.3730/35, $1.3695/700

Bids $1.3600, $1.3550

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7000, $1.6950, $1.6925/35

Bids  $1.6855-45, $1.6831

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9400, $0.9375/80, $0.9345/50, $0.9300, $0.9280

Bids $0.9220,  $0.9150

EUR/JPY

Offers Y140.00, Y139.75/80, Y139.50, Y139.20

Bids Y138.50, Y138.00, Y137.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.70/80, Y102.50, Y102.00, Y101.80

Bids  Y101.05/00, Y100.80, Y100.50

EUR/GBP

Offers  stg0.8215-25, stg0.8195/205, stg0.8160/65, stg0.8120-30

Bids  stg0.8050, stg0.8035/30, stg0.8005/000

The Office for National Statistics released the U.K. gross domestic product (GDP) figures. U.K. gross domestic product increased 0.8% in the first quarter (Q4 2013: +0.8%). Analysts had expected this figure.

On a yearly basis, U.K. gross domestic product climbed 3.1% in the first quarter (Q4 2013: +3.1%). Analysts had expected this growth.

U.K. business investment rose by 2.7% in the first quarter, from a 2.4% gain in the previous quarter. That was the highest pace since the first quarter of 2013.

On a yearly basis, U.K. business investment climbed 8.7% in the first quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter figure.

EUR/USD $1.3625, $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3715

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.25, Y101.40

GBP/USD $1.6850, $1.7000

EUR/GBP stg0.8050, stg0.8100

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9225, $0.9260

USD/CAD C$1.0900

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:00    Australia                Consumer Inflation Expectation              May          +4.2%                 +4.4%

01:45    China                    HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)    May           48.1      48.4       49.7

03:00    New Zealand         Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now  Quarter I +2.3%                 +2.4%

06:58    France                  Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)              May           51.2      51.1       49.3

06:58    France                  Services PMI (Preliminary)                       May           50.4      50.3       49.2

07:28    Germany               Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)             May           54.1      54.0       52.9

07:28    Germany               Services PMI (Preliminary)                      May           54.7      54.8       56.4

07:58    Eurozone              Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)              May           53.4      53.2       52.5

07:58    Eurozone              Services PMI (Preliminary)                       May           53.1      53.0       53.5

08:30    United Kingdom     Business Investment, q/q                      Quarter I   +2.4%  +2.3%   +2.7%

08:30    United Kingdom     Business Investment, y/y                      Quarter I   +8.7%                +8.7%

08:30    United Kingdom     PSNB, bln                                              April          4.9         3.6        9.63

08:30    United Kingdom     GDP, q/q                                               Quarter I   +0.8%  +0.8%   +0.8%

08:30    United Kingdom     GDP, y/y                                               Quarter I   +3.1%  +3.1%   +3.1%

The U.S. dollar declined against the most major currencies after the release of Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday. The Fed see the slow improvement in the economy and doesn’t see inflation pressure. It means that the U.S. central bank could left interest rates unchanged at record lows for some time after its asset purchase program ends.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reported its annual inflation expectations increased to 2.4% in the first quarter, from 2.3% in the previous quarter.

The kiwi was also supported by the better-than-expected Chinese economic data. China’s HSBC manufacturing index (preliminary) climbed to 49.7 in May, up from 48.1 in April. Analysts had expected an increase to 48.4.

The Australian dollar increased against the U.S. dollar after the release of inflation expectations in Australia and Chinese manufacturing data. The inflation expectation for the next 12 months rose to 4.4% in April, from 4.2% in March. March’s figure was revised up from +2.4%.

The Japanese yen declined against the U.S. dollar after the after the release of the better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data. The decreasing demand for safe-haven currency had a negative impact on the yen. No economic data was published in Japan.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3670

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.6885

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y101.70

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00    Eurozone            European Parliamentary Elections                                                       

10:00    United Kingdom  CBI industrial order books balance  May       -1           4            

12:30    Canada               Retail Sales, m/m                           March   +0.5%  +0.2%  

12:30    Canada               Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m             March   +0.6%  +0.5%  

12:30    U.S.                    Initial Jobless Claims                        May       297        312        

13:43    U.S.                    Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)     May       55.4      55.6      

14:00    U.S.                    Existing Home Sales                       April      4.59      4.71

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3794 (2550)

$1.3764 (3694)

$1.3723 (517)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3672

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3634 (2917)

$1.3614 (6641)

$1.3587 (2950)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 54071 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (5148);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 70251 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6641);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.29 versus 1.47 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 21

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7200 (1750)

$1.7101 (1855)

$1.7003 (2745)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6890

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6797 (1565)

$1.6699 (2499)

$1.6599 (1555)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 23079 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2745);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 24225 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2499);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.05 versus 0.97 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 21

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.