Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 20-05-2014

EUR/USD $1,3698 -0,07%

GBP/USD $1,6837 +0,15%

USD/CHF Chf0,8919 -0,02%

USD/JPY Y101,31 -0,16%

EUR/JPY Y138,77 -0,24%

GBP/JPY Y170,56 -0,02%

AUD/USD $0,9240 -0,91%

NZD/USD $0,8571 -0,63%

USD/CAD C$1,0905 +0,32%

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence May +0.3%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter I +0.7% +0.8%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter I +2.6% +2.6%

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report May

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln March 21.9 24.2

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) April +4.2% +5.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) April +0.1% +0.4%

14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence May -8.6 -8.0

14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May +0.9

15:30 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies amid the release of Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday. Market participants are awaiting the Fed's view of the economy. Recently published U.S. economic data was mixed and showed uneven recovery of the U.S. economy.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to expectations for further stimulus measures by European Central Bank and the weak growth figures in the Eurozone, published last week.

The producer price index in Germany decreased 0.1% in April, from a 0.3% decrease in March. Analysts had expected 0.0%. On a yearly basis, the German producer price index declined 0.9% in April (March: -0.9%). Analysts had forecasted a 0.7% decrease.

The British pound increased against the U.S. dollar after the release of the better-than-expected U.K. inflation data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the inflation figures. On a yearly basis, the U.K. consumer price index increased 1.8% in April, from a 1.6% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 1.7% gain. On a monthly basis, the U.K. consumer price index climbed 0.4% in April, from a 0.2% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 0.3% increase.

The raise of the consumer price index was driven by the by transport and motoring costs.

The published consumer price index showed that the growth of the inflation is faster than the growth of wages. U.K. wages including bonuses increased 1.7% in March.

U.K. house prices climbed 8.0% in March, from 9.2% in February.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to weaker-than-expected Canadian wholesale sales. Wholesale sales in Canada declined 0.4% in March, from a 1.1% rise in February. Analysts had expected a 0.5% gain.

The New Zealand dollar decreased against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar dropped to 2-week lows against the U.S. dollar after the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes. The Reserve Bank Australia's policy meeting showed that the bank plans to maintain interest rates at record lows for a longer period of time because the "overall growth in coming quarters is likely to be below trend."

The Conference Board released its leading index for Australia. The index was flat in March, after a 0.2% rise in February. February’s figure was revised down from a 0.3% gain.

EUR/USD $1.3700/10, $1.3725, $1.3745/55

USD/JPY Y100.60, Y100.75

USD/CAD Cad1.0825, Cad1.0900, Cad1.0925

AUD/USD $0.9330, $0.9360

GBP/USD $1.6900

NZD/USD NZ$0.8600

EUR/GBP stg0.8200

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:00    Australia           Conference Board Australia Leading Index     March   +0.3%                0.0%

01:30    Australia           RBA Meeting's Minutes                                                            

03:15    Australia           RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks                                                            

04:30    Japan               All Industry Activity Index, m/m                    March   -1.1%   +1.6%   +1.5%

06:00    Germany           Producer Price Index (MoM)                         April      -0.3%   0.0%      -0.1%

06:00    Germany           Producer Price Index (YoY)                          April      -0.9%   -0.7%     -0.9%

08:30    United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m                                April      +0.2%  +0.4%   +0.4%

08:30    United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y                                          April      +2.5%  +2.6%   +2.5%

08:30    United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y                                                   April      +2.5%               +2.6%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM)             April      -0.6%   0.0%      -1.1%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY)              April      -6.5%                 -5.5%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM)          April      +0.2%  +0.2%    +0.0%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY)           April      +0.5%  +0.8%    +0.6%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y                                      April      +1.6%               +2.0%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP, m/m                                                  April      +0.2%  +0.3%   +0.4%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y                                                    April      +1.6%  +1.7%   +1.8%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies amid the release of Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday. Market participants are awaiting the Fed's view of the economy. Recently published U.S. economic data was mixed and showed uneven recovery of the U.S. economy.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to expectations for further stimulus measures by European Central Bank and the weak growth figures in the Eurozone, published last week.

The producer price index in Germany decreased 0.1% in April, from a 0.3% decrease in March. Analysts had expected 0.0%. On a yearly basis, the German producer price index declined 0.9% in April (March: -0.9%). Analysts had forecasted a 0.7% decrease.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the release of the better-than-expected U.K. inflation data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the inflation figures. On a yearly basis, the U.K. consumer price index increased 1.8% in April, from a 1.6% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 1.7% gain. On a monthly basis, the U.K. consumer price index climbed 0.4% in April, from a 0.2% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 0.3% increase.

The raise of the consumer price index was driven by the by transport and motoring costs.

The published consumer price index showed that the growth of the inflation is faster than the growth of wages. U.K. wages including bonuses increased 1.7% in March.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar amid the release of Canadian wholesale sales. Wholesale sales in Canada should increase 0.5% in March, from a 1.1% rise in February.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3677

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.6864

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.23

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada   Wholesale Sales, m/m                                        March   +1.1%       +0.5% 

16:30    U.S.        FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks                                                           

17:00    U.S.        FOMC Member Dudley Speak                                                                 

23:50    Japan     Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln            April      -1714.2      -600.0

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3800, $1.3770/80, $1.3750, $1.3730/35

Bids $1.3648, $1.3645/40, $1.3632, $1.3600

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6940/50, $1.6900/05, $1.6880/85

Bids $1.6800

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9400, $0.9375/80, $0.9345/50, $0.9295/00

Bids $0.9255/50, $0.9220, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers Y139.75/80, Y139.50, Y139.20/25, Y139.00

Bids  Y138.50, Y138.00, Y137.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.40/45, Y102.00, Y101.80, Y101.65/70

Bids  Y101.10/05, Y100.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8215-25, stg0.8195/205, stg0.8160/65

Bids stg0.8115/10, stg0.8100, stg0.8050, stg0.8035/30, stg0.8005/000

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the inflation figures. On a yearly basis, the U.K. consumer price index increased 1.8% in April, from a 1.6% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 1.7% gain. On a monthly basis, the U.K. consumer price index climbed 0.4% in April, from a 0.2% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted a 0.3% increase.

The raise of the consumer price index was driven by the by transport and motoring costs.

The published consumer price index showed that the growth of the inflation is faster than the growth of wages. U.K. wages including bonuses increased 1.7% in March.

EUR/USD $1.3700/10, $1.3725, $1.3745/55

USD/JPY Y100.60, Y100.75

USD/CAD Cad1.0825, Cad1.0900, Cad1.0925

AUD/USD $0.9330, $0.9360

GBP/USD $1.6900

NZD/USD NZ$0.8600

EUR/GBP stg0.8200

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:00    Australia           Conference Board Australia Leading Index     March   +0.3%                0.0%

01:30    Australia           RBA Meeting's Minutes                                                            

03:15    Australia           RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks                                                             

04:30    Japan               All Industry Activity Index, m/m                    March   -1.1%   +1.6%   +1.5%

06:00    Germany           Producer Price Index (MoM)                         April      -0.3%   0.0%      -0.1%

06:00    Germany           Producer Price Index (YoY)                          April      -0.9%   -0.7%     -0.9%

08:30    United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m                                April      +0.2%  +0.4%   +0.4%

08:30    United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y                                          April      +2.5%  +2.6%   +2.5%

08:30    United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y                                                   April      +2.5%               +2.6%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM)             April      -0.6%   0.0%      -1.1%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY)              April      -6.5%                 -5.5%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM)          April      +0.2%  +0.2%    +0.0%

08:30    United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY)           April      +0.5%  +0.8%    +0.6%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y                                      April      +1.6%               +2.0%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP, m/m                                                  April      +0.2%  +0.3%   +0.4%

08:30    United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y                                                    April      +1.6%  +1.7%   +1.8%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies amid the release of Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday. Market participants are awaiting the Fed's view of the economy. Recently published U.S. economic data was mixed and showed uneven recovery of the U.S. economy.

The New Zealand dollar decreased against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar dropped to 2-week lows against the U.S. dollar after the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes. The Reserve Bank Australia's policy meeting showed that the bank plans to maintain interest rates at record lows for a longer period of time because the "overall growth in coming quarters is likely to be below trend."

The Conference Board released its leading index for Australia. The index was flat in March, after a 0.2% rise in February. February’s figure was revised down from a 0.3% gain.

The Japanese yen traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar. All industry activity index in Japan climbed 1.5% in March from a 1.1% decrease in February, missing analysts’ forecast of a 1.6% rise.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair increased to Y101.60

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada   Wholesale Sales, m/m                                        March   +1.1%       +0.5%  

16:30    U.S.        FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks                                                            

17:00    U.S.        FOMC Member Dudley Speak                                                                  

23:50    Japan     Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln            April      -1714.2      -600.0

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3836 (2720)

$1.3805 (1489)

$1.3760 (723)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3708

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3675 (3374)

$1.3631 (6649)

$1.3566 (3480)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 46545 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4915);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 69294 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6649);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.49 versus 1.51 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 19

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7101 (1844)

$1.7002 (2710)

$1.6904 (1932)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6813

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6697 (2404)

$1.6599 (1542)

$1.6499 (1237)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 23053 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2710);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 23943 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2404);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.04 versus 1.01 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 19

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.