Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 21-05-2014

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation May +2.4%

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) May 48.1 48.4

03:00 New Zealand Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now Quarter II +2.3%

06:58 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) May 51.2 51.1

06:58 France Services PMI (Preliminary) May 50.4 50.3

07:28 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) May 54.1 54.0

07:28 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) May 54.7 54.8

07:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) May 53.4 53.2

07:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) May 53.1 53.0

08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q Quarter I +2.4% +2.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y Quarter I +8.7%

08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln April 4.9 3.6

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Revised) Quarter I +0.8% +0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Revised) Quarter I +3.1% +3.1%

09:00 Eurozone European Parliamentary Elections

10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance May -1 4

12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m March +0.5% +0.2%

12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m March +0.6% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims May 297 312

13:43 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) May     55.4     55.6     

14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators April +0.8% +0.4%

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales April 4.59 4.71

The U.S. dollar climbed against the most major currencies due to increasing U.S. treasury yields, amid the release of Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the speech of Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Market participants are awaiting the Fed's view of the economy. Recently published U.S. economic data was mixed and showed uneven recovery of the U.S. economy.

The euro dropped against the U.S. dollar. Further stimulus measures by European Central Bank and the weak growth figures in the Eurozone weighed on the euro.

The current account surplus in the Eurozone was 18.8 billion euro in March, after a surplus of 21.9 billion euro in February. Analysts had expected an increase to 24.2 billion euro.

The consumer confidence in the Eurozone was -7.1 in May, from a decrease of 8.6 in April. Analysts had expected a decline of 8.0.

The British pound rose against the U.S. dollar after the release of the better-than-expected U.K. retail sales, but later lost a part of its gains. U.K. retail sales increased 1.3% in April, from a 0.1% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 0.4% increase.

On a yearly basis, U.K. retail sales rose 6.9% in April, exceeding expectations for a 5.2% increase. That was the fastest pace since May 2004. U.K. retail sales climbed 4.8% in March.

The retail sales increase was driven by a supermarket price war between Morrisons, Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury's. Food sales rose 3.6% in April from March and at annual rate of 6.3%. That was highest annual growth since January 2002.

Bank of England's minutes of its May meeting showed that the Bank of England policymakers voted unanimously to maintain interest rates unchanged at record lows this month. But some policymakers thought the arguments in favour of an interest-rate hike were growing stronger.

The Canadian dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was published in Canada.

The New Zealand dollar traded near 3-week lows against the U.S. dollar. Declining dairy prices and the weak economic data in Australia had a negative impact on the kiwi. Dairy prices at the GlobalDairyTrade auction declined. Market participants speculate that the New Zealand dollar is overvalued as Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Graeme Wheeler warned this month. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar decreased against the U.S. dollar after the release of the weak economic data in Australia. The Westpac consumer sentiment in Australia decreased 6.8% in May, after a 0.3% gain in April.

Wage prices in Australia increased 0.7% in the first quarter (Q4 2003: +0.7%). Analysts had expected a 0.8% rise.

The Australian dollar also came under pressure due to the falling iron ore prices. Iron ore is Australia's biggest export (about 20% of all exports).

The Japanese yen hits 3.5-month highs against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged on Wednesday, but later lost all its gains. The Bank of Japan will continue to increase the monetary base at a pace of ¥60 trillion to ¥70 trillion per year. Japan’s central bank expects a moderate economic recovery.

Japan’s trade deficit was ¥808.9 billion in April, compared to a deficit of ¥1,714.2 billion in March. Analysts had forecasted a deficit of ¥640.0 billion.

EUR/USD $1.3650, $1.3700/10, $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.25, Y101.50, Y101.70/75

GBP/USD $1.6775, $1.6880

EUR/GBP stg0.8200/05

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9300, $0.9345

USD/CAD C$1.0850, C$1.0895-900, C$1.0920

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) released the interest rate decision on Wednesday:

• BoJ has left its key interest rate at 0.1%;
  
• Bank of Japan will continue to increase the monetary base at a pace of ¥60 trillion to ¥70 trillion per year.
  

The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in a press conference:

• Japanese economy is on its “gradual recovery track”
  
• He doesn't see much need for further stimulus measures;
  
• BoJ will continue with the current monetary policy until the 2% inflation target is achieved;
  
• He doesn’t see any reason for the yen to strengthen;
  
• There are no changes in the upward trend of the stock markets.
  

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:30    Australia                Westpac Consumer Confidence         May              +0.3%                -6.8%

01:30    Australia                Wage Price Index, q/q                       Quarter I       +0.7%  +0.8%   +0.7%

01:30    Australia                Wage Price Index, y/y                       Quarter I       +2.6%  +2.6%   +2.6%

03:00    Japan                    BoJ Interest Rate Decision                                      0.10%   0.10%   0.10%

03:00    Japan                    Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target                       270        270      270

03:00    Japan                    BoJ Monetary Policy Statement                                                            

05:00    Japan                    BoJ monthly economic report  May                                    

07:30    Japan                    BOJ Press Conference                                              

08:00    Eurozone               Current account, adjusted, bln          March            21.9      24.2       18.8

08:30    United Kingdom     Retail Sales (YoY)                               April               +4.2%   +5.3% +6.9%

08:30    United Kingdom     Bank of England Minutes                                                         

08:30    United Kingdom     Retail Sales (MoM)                              April              +0.1%  +0.4%   +1.3%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies amid the release of Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the speech of Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Market participants are awaiting the Fed's view of the economy. Recently published U.S. economic data was mixed and showed uneven recovery of the U.S. economy.

The euro slid against the U.S. dollar. Further stimulus measures by European Central Bank and the weak growth figures in the Eurozone weighed on the euro.

The current account surplus in the Eurozone was 18.8 billion euro in March, after a surplus of 21.9 billion euro in February. Analysts had expected an increase to 24.2 billion euro.

The British pound rose against the U.S. dollar after the release of the better-than-expected U.K. retail sales. U.K. retail sales increased 1.3% in April, from a 0.1% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 0.4% increase.

On a yearly basis, U.K. retail sales rose 6.9% in April, exceeding expectations for a 5.2% increase. That was the fastest pace since May 2004. U.K. retail sales climbed 4.8% in March.

The retail sales increase was driven by a supermarket price war between Morrisons, Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury's. Food sales rose 3.6% in April from March and at annual rate of 6.3%. That was highest annual growth since January 2002.

Bank of England's minutes of its May meeting showed that the Bank of England policymakers voted unanimously to maintain interest rates unchanged at record lows this month. But some policymakers thought the arguments in favour of an interest-rate hike were growing stronger.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3670

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.6921

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y100.81

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:00    Eurozone    Consumer Confidence May       -8.6       -8.0      

14:00    U.S.            FOMC Member Dudley Speak                                              

15:30    U.S.            Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks                                                       

17:30    U.S.            FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota                                                          

18:00    U.S.            FOMC meeting minutes

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3800, $1.3770/80, $1.3750, $1.3730/35

Bids $1.3670-68, $1.3648, $1.3645/40, $1.3635, $1.3600

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7010-20, $1.7000, $1.6940/50

Bids  $1.6875-70, $1.6850-45

AUD/USD

Offers  $0.9375/80, $0.9345/50, $0.9300, $0.9270/80, $0.9245/50

Bids $0.9220/10, $0.9200,  $0.9150

EUR/JPY

Offers Y139.75/80, Y139.50, Y139.20, Y138.95/00

Bids Y138.00, Y137.50, Y137.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.00, Y101.80, Y101.65/70, Y101.50, Y101.20

Bids Y100.80, Y100.50, Y100.25

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8195/205, stg0.8160/65

Bids stg0.8100, stg0.8090, stg0.8050, stg0.8035/30, stg0.8005/000

The Office of National Statistics released the retail sales in the U.K. U.K. retail sales increased 1.3% in April, from a 0.1% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 0.4% increase.

On a yearly basis, U.K. retail sales rose 6.9% in April, exceeding expectations for a 5.2% increase. That was the fastest pace since May 2004. U.K. retail sales climbed 4.8% in March.

The retail sales increase was driven by a supermarket price war between Morrisons, Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury's. Food sales rose 3.6% in April from March and at annual rate of 6.3%. That was highest annual growth since January 2002.

Bank of England's minutes of its May meeting showed that the Bank of England policymakers voted unanimously to maintain interest rates unchanged at record lows this month. But some policymakers thought the arguments in favour of an interest-rate hike were growing stronger.

EUR/USD $1.3650, $1.3700/10, $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.25, Y101.50, Y101.70/75

GBP/USD $1.6775, $1.6880

EUR/GBP stg0.8200/05

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9300, $0.9345

USD/CAD C$1.0850, C$1.0895-900, C$1.0920

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:30    Australia                Westpac Consumer Confidence         May              +0.3%                -6.8%

01:30    Australia                Wage Price Index, q/q                       Quarter I       +0.7%  +0.8%   +0.7%

01:30    Australia                Wage Price Index, y/y                       Quarter I       +2.6%  +2.6%   +2.6%

03:00    Japan                    BoJ Interest Rate Decision                                      0.10%   0.10%   0.10%

03:00    Japan                    Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target                       270        270      270

03:00    Japan                    BoJ Monetary Policy Statement                                                            

05:00    Japan                    BoJ monthly economic report  May                                     

07:30    Japan                    BOJ Press Conference                                               

08:00    Eurozone               Current account, adjusted, bln          March            21.9      24.2       18.8

08:30    United Kingdom     Retail Sales (YoY)                               April               +4.2%   +5.3% +6.9%

08:30    United Kingdom     Bank of England Minutes                                                          

08:30    United Kingdom     Retail Sales (MoM)                              April              +0.1%  +0.4%   +1.3%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies amid the release of Federal Reserve's meeting minutes later in the day. Market participants are awaiting the Fed's view of the economy. Recently published U.S. economic data was mixed and showed uneven recovery of the U.S. economy.

The New Zealand dollar traded near 3-week lows against the U.S. dollar. Declining dairy prices and the weak economic data in Australia had a negative impact on the kiwi. Dairy prices at the GlobalDairyTrade auction declined. Market participants speculate that the New Zealand dollar is overvalued as Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Graeme Wheeler warned this month. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar decreased against the U.S. dollar after the release of the weak economic data in Australia. The Westpac consumer sentiment in Australia decreased 6.8% in May, after a 0.3% gain in April.

Wage prices in Australia increased 0.7% in the first quarter (Q4 2003: +0.7%). Analysts had expected a 0.8% rise.

The Australian dollar also came under pressure due to the falling iron ore prices. Iron ore is Australia's biggest export (about 20% of all exports).

The Japanese yen hits 3.5-month highs against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan will continue to increase the monetary base at a pace of ¥60 trillion to ¥70 trillion per year. Japan’s central bank expects a moderate economic recovery.

Japan’s trade deficit was ¥808.9 billion in April, compared to a deficit of ¥1,714.2 billion in March. Analysts had forecasted a deficit of ¥640.0 billion.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.16

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:00    Eurozone    Consumer Confidence May       -8.6       -8.0       

14:00    U.S.            FOMC Member Dudley Speak                                               

15:30    U.S.            Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks                                                       

17:30    U.S.            FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota                                                           

18:00    U.S.            FOMC meeting minutes

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3832 (2893)

$1.3799 (1690)

$1.3750 (723)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3707

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3664 (3359)

$1.3625 (6645)

$1.3562 (3535)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 47210 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4915);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 69332 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6645);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.47 versus 1.49 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 20

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7101 (1844)

$1.7002 (2696)

$1.6904 (1949)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6836

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6795 (1389)

$1.6698 (2498)

$1.6599 (1532)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 25134 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2696);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 24383 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2498);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.97 versus 1.04 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 20

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.