Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 15-05-2014

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15.05.2014

23:20

Currencies. Daily history for May 15'2014:

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3710 -0,03%

GBP/USD $1,6788 +0,14%

USD/CHF Chf0,8907 +0,12%

USD/JPY Y101,57 -0,27%

EUR/JPY Y139,26 -0,28%

GBP/JPY Y170,51 -0,12%

AUD/USD $0,9354 -0,22%

NZD/USD $0,8644 -0,22%

USD/CAD C$1,0878 -0,08%

23:00

Schedule for today, Friday, May 16’2014:

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) March +0.3% +0.3%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) March +7.0%

06:45 France Non-Farm Payrolls (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.1% -0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. March 15.0 17.3

12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases March 6.08 7.21

12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln April 1.000 [Revised From 0.990] 1.010

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln April 0.946 0.980

13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) April 84.1 84.7

15:44

Foreign exchange market. American session: the U.S. traded lower against the most major currencies after the release of the mixed U.S. economic data

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies amid the speech of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The U.S. consumer price index increased 0.3% in April, from a 0.2% rise in March. That was the biggest rise since June last year. Analysts expected this increase. The U.S. consumer price increase was driven by higher costs for gasoline, shelter and food. On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index increased 2.0% in April, from a 1.5% rise in March.

The U.S. producer price index excluding food and energy climbed 0.2% in April, meeting expectations of analysts. On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index excluding food and energy climbed 1.8% in April, from a 1.7% rise in March.

The number of initial jobless claims declined by 24,000 to 297,000 from the previous week. The previous week’s figure was revised to 321,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to decrease by 1,000 to 320,000 last week.

NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index increased to 19.01 in May, from 1.29 in April. Analysts had expected a rise to 5.0.

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index decreased to 15.4 in May, from 16.6 in April. Analysts had expected a decrease to 14.0.

U.S. industrial production declined 0.6% in April, from a 0.7% gain. March's figure was revised up to a 0.9% rise. Analysts had forecasted a 0.4% increase.

The euro hits 2.5-month lows against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected GDP in the Eurozone, but later recovered its losses due to mixed U.S. economic data. Eurozone’s gross domestic product increased 0.2% in the first quarter, from a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. Analysts had expected a 0.4% rise. On a yearly basis, the GDP in the Eurozone rose 0.9%, missing expectations for an increase of 1.1%.

On a yearly basis, Eurozone’s harmonized consumer price index was unchanged at 0.7% in April. Analysts had forecasted this figure. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index in the Eurozone rose 0.2% April, from a 0.9% gain in March. The inflation rate is still well below the ECB's 2% inflation target.

The French GDP (preliminary) was flat in the first quarter, from a 0.2% increase in the previous quarter. The figure of Q4 2013 was revised down from 0.3%. Analysts had expected a 0.4% rise. On yearly basis, the French GDP (preliminary) remained unchanged at 0.8% in the first quarter.

The German GDP (preliminary) increased 0.8% in the first quarter, from a 0.4% increase in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected a 0.7% rise. On yearly basis, the German GDP (preliminary) rose 2.3% in the first quarter, from a 1.3% gain in the previous quarter.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the release of the mixed U.S. economic data. No economic data was published in the U.K.

The Swiss Franc hits 2.5-month lows against the U.S. dollar due to the weak economic data in Switzerland and the strength of the U.S. dollar, but later recovered its losses due to mixed U.S. economic data. Producer & import prices in Switzerland declined 0.3% in April, from 0.0% in March. Analysts had forecasted a 0.3% increase. On yearly basis, producer & import prices in Switzerland fell 1.2% in April, from a 0.7% decline in March.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar after the release of the U.S. economic reports. Manufacturing sales in Canada climbed 0.4% in March, from a 1.5% rise in March. February’s manufacturing sales were revised up from a 1.4% gain. Analysts had expected a 0.2% rise.

The New Zealand dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar, but later recovered a part of its losses. The Business New Zealand Manufacturing Index dropped to 55.2 in April, from 58.0 in March. March’s figure was revised down from 58.4.

New Zealand's Treasury released its annual budget. The government will reach a surplus in the 2105 financial year. The surplus should be NZ$372 million. The figure was revised up from NZ$86 million. Market participants were unimpressed by this release.

The Australian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar, but later recovered a part of its losses. In overnight trading, the Australian currency was supported by the new motor vehicle sales in Australia. New motor vehicle sales in Australia were flat in April, after a 0.3% decrease in March. Australia’s year-on-year new motor vehicle sales declined 1.9% in April, after a 2.8% fall in March.

The Japanese yen increased against the U.S. dollar. Japan’s was supported by the better-than-expected economic data out of Japan. On a year basis, Japan's gross domestic product climbed (preliminary) 5.9% in the first quarter of 2014, from a 0.7% rise in the fourth quarter of 2013. Analysts had expected a 4.2% increase. On a quarterly basis, Japan's gross domestic product rose (preliminary) 1.5% in the first quarter of 2014, from a 0.2% increase in the fourth quarter of 2013. Analysts had forecasted a 1.0% increase.

The Japanese consumer confidence index increased 37.0 in April, from 37.5 in March. Analysts had expected 36.7.

14:29

The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda: the economy is on track to meet the 2% inflation target of the central bank

The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at the Annual Tokyo Conference today:

The economy is on track to meet the 2% inflation target of the central bank;
The Bank of Japan will continue its Quantitative and Qualitative Easing to achieve its 2% inflation target within 2 years;
The current economic recovery could be the key to resolve Japan’s longer-term issue of supply shortages;
The increase of inflation expectations seem to have started to influence actual wage and price settings;
Labour supply could be an issue in the near future in various forms due to the demographic trends.

14:15

U.S. inflation rose more than expected in the last month

The Labor Department released the U.S. inflation data today. The U.S. consumer price index increased 0.3% in April, from a 0.2% rise in March. That was the biggest rise since June last year. Analysts expected this increase. The U.S. consumer price increase was driven by higher costs for gasoline, shelter and food. On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index increased 2.0% in April, from a 1.5% rise in March.

The inflation target of the Fed is 2%. The Fed was concerned as the inflation was low, but the increase in consumer prices should ease the concerns.

The U.S. food prices climbed 0.4% in April, caused by a drought in the West. A drought pushed up prices for meat, dairy, fruit and vegetables. Gasoline prices increased 2.3%.

14:00

U.S.: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, May 15.4 (forecast 13.9)

14:00

U.S.: NAHB Housing Market Index, May 45 (forecast 49)

14:00

U.S.: Mortgage Delinquencies, Quarter I 6.11%

13:48

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3675-80, $1.3700-10, $1.3720, $1.3750, $1.3775, $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.15-20, Y101.50, Y101.60, Y101.80, Y102.00, Y102.35, Y102.50-55

GBP/USD $1.6680-85, $1.6750, $1.6775, $1.6800

AUD/USD $0.9355

USD/CAD C$1.0825, C$1.0845-50, C$1.0875, C$1.1000