Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 13-05-2014

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) April -0.2% -0.2%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) April +1.3% +1.3%

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y April +41.8%

06:45 France CPI, m/m April +0.4% +0.2%

06:45 France CPI, y/y April +0.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y April +1.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y March +1.7% +2.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count April -30.4 -31.2

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate April 3.4%

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate March 6.9% 6.8%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) March +0.2% -0.3%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) March +1.7%

09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) March 7.0

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter Quarter II

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m April +0.5% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y April +1.4%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m April +0.6% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y April +1.4%

14:00 U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Quarter I 6.41%

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May -1.8

22:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI April 58.4

23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index March -1.0% +2.5%

23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.2% +1.0%

23:50 Japan GDP, y/y Quarter I +2.6%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies despite the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. U.S. retail sales increased 0.1% in April, from a 1.2% rise in March. March’s figure was revised up from 1.1%. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.5%. U.S. retail sales excluding autos were flat in April (March: +0.7%). Analysts had forecasted a 0.6% increase.

U.S. business inventories remained unchanged at 0.4% in March. This figure was expected by analysts.

The euro slid against the U.S. dollar due to the news Germany supports the additional stimulus measures by ECB and the weaker-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone and Germany. The ZEW Centre for Economic Research released the economic sentiment figures for May. German economic sentiment slid to 33.1 in May from 43.2 in April. Analysts had expected 41.3.

Eurozone’s economic sentiment declined to 55.2 in May from 61.2 in April. Analysts had forecasted 63.5.

The euro also remained under pressure due after The Wall Street Journal reported that Germany’s Bundesbank is willing to back additional stimulus measures from the ECB next month.

The British pound dropped against the U.S. dollar ahead of tomorrow’s U.K. labour market data and the BOE inflation letter.

The Canadian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar, supported by the weak U.S. economic data.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar. Food price index in New Zealand rose 0.6% in April, from a 0.3% decrease in March. The weaker-than-expected economic data from China put pressure on the kiwi. Retail sales increased 11.9% in April, from a 12.2% rise in March. Analysts had expected an increase of 12.2%. China’s industrial production rose 8.7% in April, from an 8.8% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted an increase of 8.9%. Fixed asset investment in China climbed 17.3% in April, from a 17.6% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 17.8% rise. China is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.

The Australian dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected economic data from Australia and China, but later recovered its losses. The house price inflation in Australia climbed 1.7% in the first quarter, from a 3.8% rise in the fourth quarter 2013. The fourth quarter figure was revised up from 3.4%. Analysts had expected an increase of 3.0%. Home loans in Australia declined 0.9% in March, from a 2.3% rise in February. Analysts had forecasted a 0.1% decrease.

EUR/USD $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.25, Y101.40

USD/CAD Cad1.0875, Cad1.0900, Cad1.0985, Cad1.1000

AUD/USD $0.9370, $0.9385, $0.9410, $0.9425

GBP/USD $1.6800, $1.7000

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                House Price Index (QoQ)  Quarter I     +3.8%  +3.0%   +1.7%

01:30    Australia                House Price Index (YoY)   Quarter I    +9.3%               +10.9%

01:30    Australia                Home Loans                     March       +2.3%    +1.1%    -0.9%

05:30    China                    Retail Sales y/y                  April         +12.2%  +12.2% +11.9%

05:30    China                    Industrial Production y/y     April         +8.8%    +8.9%   +8.7%

05:30    China                    Fixed Asset Investment       April         +17.6%  +17.8% +17.3%

09:00    Eurozone              ZEW Economic Sentiment   May             61.2         63.5       55.2

09:00    Germany               ZEW Economic Sentiment   May             43.2         41.3       33.1

09:30    Australia                Annual Budget Release        2014

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. Market participants are awaiting the release of U.S. retail sales later in the day. U.S. retail sales should increase 0.5% in April. U.S. retail sales excluding autos should rise 0.6% in April.

The euro hits 1-month lows against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone and Germany. The ZEW Centre for Economic Research released the economic sentiment figures for May. German economic sentiment slid to 33.1 in May from 43.2 in April. Analysts had expected 41.3.

Eurozone’s economic sentiment declined to 55.2 in May from 61.2 in April. Analysts had forecasted 63.5.

The euro also remained under pressure due to rumours that Germany’s Bundesbank is willing to back additional stimulus measures from the ECB next month.

The British pound dropped against the U.S. dollar ahead of tomorrow’s U.K. labour market data and the BOE inflation letter.

EUR/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.3698

GBP/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.6824

USD/JPY: the currency pair increased to Y102.37

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    U.S.                       Retail sales                                           April      +1.2%   +0.5% 

12:30    U.S.                       Retail sales excluding auto                   April      +0.7%   +0.6% 

12:30    U.S.                       Import Price Index                              April      +0.6%   +0.4% 

14:00    U.S.                       Business inventories                            March   +0.4%  +0.4%           

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Financial Stability Report             May                                    

21:05    New Zealand          RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Speaks                                                       

22:45    New Zealand          Retail Sales, q/q                                 Quarter I  +1.2%  +0.9% 

22:45    New Zealand          Retail Sales ex Autos, q/q                   Quarter I +0.7%  +0.9%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3890-900, $1.3870/75, $1.3860, $1.3825/30, $1.3810

Bids $1.3705/00, $1.3650/40, $1.3600

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7010-20, $1.7000, $1.6950, $1.6930, $1.6900/05

Bids $1.6810/00, $1.6765, $1.6715, $1.6700

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9450, $0.9400, $0.9380

Bids $0.9320, $0.9305/00, $0.9255/50, $0.9220, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.35/45, Y142.00, Y141.50, Y141.00

Bids Y140.05, Y139.85, Y139.50,  Y139.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.00, Y102.80, Y102.50

Bids Y102.00, Y101.50, Y101.35/30, Y101.20, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8250/60, stg0.8220/30, stg0.8190/200

Bids stg0.8130, stg0.8120, stg0.8100

The currency pair EUR/USD hits 1-month lows due to the weaker-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone and Germany. The ZEW Centre for Economic Research released the economic sentiment figures for May. German economic sentiment slid to 33.1 in May from 43.2 in April. Analysts had expected 41.3.

Eurozone’s economic sentiment declined to 55.2 in May from 61.2 in April. Analysts had forecasted 63.5.

EUR/USD $1.3800

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.25, Y101.40

USD/CAD Cad1.0875, Cad1.0900, Cad1.0985, Cad1.1000

AUD/USD $0.9370, $0.9385, $0.9410, $0.9425

GBP/USD $1.6800, $1.7000

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                House Price Index (QoQ)  Quarter I     +3.8%  +3.0%   +1.7%

01:30    Australia                House Price Index (YoY)   Quarter I    +9.3%               +10.9%

01:30    Australia                Home Loans                     March       +2.3%    +1.1%    -0.9%

05:30    China                    Retail Sales y/y                  April         +12.2%  +12.2% +11.9%

05:30    China                    Industrial Production y/y     April         +8.8%    +8.9%   +8.7%

05:30    China                    Fixed Asset Investment      April         +17.6%  +17.8% +17.3%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. Market participants are awaiting the release of U.S. retail sales later in the day. U.S. retail sales should increase 0.5% in April. U.S. retail sales excluding autos should rise 0.6% in April.

The New Zealand dollar traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Food price index in New Zealand rose 0.6% in April, from a 0.3% decrease in March. The weaker-than-expected economic data from China put pressure on the kiwi. Retail sales increased 11.9% in April, from a 12.2% rise in March. Analysts had expected an increase of 12.2%. China’s industrial production rose 8.7% in April, from an 8.8% rise in March. Analysts had forecasted an increase of 8.9%. Fixed asset investment in China climbed 17.3% in April, from a 17.6% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 17.8% rise. China is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.

The Australian dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected economic data from Australia and China. The house price inflation in Australia climbed 1.7% in the first quarter, from a 3.8% rise in the fourth quarter 2013. The fourth quarter figure was revised up from 3.4%. Analysts had expected an increase of 3.0%. Home loans in Australia declined 0.9% in March, from a 2.3% rise in February. Analysts had forecasted a 0.1% decrease.

The Japanese yen declined against the U.S. dollar due decreasing demand for safe-haven yen. No economic data was published in Japan.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.6880

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y102.30

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00    Eurozone               ZEW Economic Sentiment                   May       61.2      63.5      

09:00    Germany                ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment    May       43.2      41.3      

09:30    Australia                 Annual Budget Release                        2014                                     

12:30    U.S.                       Retail sales                                           April      +1.2%   +0.5%  

12:30    U.S.                       Retail sales excluding auto                   April      +0.7%   +0.6%  

12:30    U.S.                       Import Price Index                              April      +0.6%   +0.4%  

14:00    U.S.                       Business inventories                            March   +0.4%  +0.4%            

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Financial Stability Report            May                                     

21:05    New Zealand          RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Speaks                                                        

22:45    New Zealand          Retail Sales, q/q                                 Quarter I  +1.2%  +0.9%  

22:45    New Zealand          Retail Sales ex Autos, q/q                   Quarter I +0.7%  +0.9%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3861 (1882)

$1.3835 (903)

$1.3797 (683)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3758

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3731 (257)

$1.3702 (1998)

$1.3660 (2658)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 40938 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (4608);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 63537 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3700 (6807);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.55 versus 1.55 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 12

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7102 (1748)

$1.7004 (1966)

$1.6907 (1474)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6878

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6792 (1187)

$1.6696 (718)

$1.6598 (1084)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 20006 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (1966);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 18589 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1914);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.93 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 12

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.