Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 06-05-2014

EUR/USD $1,3924 +0,54%

GBP/USD $1,6973 +0,98%

USD/CHF Chf0,8742 -0,70%

USD/JPY Y101,73 -0,74%

EUR/JPY Y141,66 -0,18%

GBP/JPY Y172,65 +0,24%

AUD/USD $0,9340 +0,86%

NZD/USD $0,8706 +1,95%

USD/CAD C$1,0893 -1,22%

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) March +0.2% +0.4%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y March +4.9%

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI April 51.9

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate April 3.2% 3.2%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) March +0.6% +0.5%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) March +6.1%

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln March -3.4 -4.0

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m March +0.1% +0.4%

06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y March

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index April -1.1% +0.8%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y April +8.7%

07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves April 437.9

12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) March -11.6% +4.2%

12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I +1.8% -0.5%

12:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.1% +2.3%

14:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May +1.7

19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit March 16.5 15.4

23:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance April 57% 55%

The U.S. dollar plunged against the most major currencies. Market participants remained unimpressed by released U.S. trade balance figures. The U.S. trade deficit decreased to $40.38 billion in March from $41.87 billion in February. February’s figure was revised down from $42.30 billion. Analysts had expected the decline of trade deficit to $40.30 billion.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar. The European currency was supported by the better-than-expected economic data in the Eurozone and the disappointing U.S. trade balance figures. Eurozone’s month-on-month retail sales increased to 0.3% in March from 0.1% in February. February’s figure was revised down to 0.1% from 0.4%. Analysts had forecasted a rise of 0.2%.

The number of unemployed people in Spain declined by 111,600 in April from a 16,600 decrease in March. Analysts had expected a fall of 49,100.

Spain's services purchasing managers' index rallied to a six-year high of 56.5 in April from 54.0 in March. Analysts had expected an increase to 54.4 in April.

The British pound remained near five-year highs. The better-than-expected U.K. services PMI still supports the British currency. The U.K. services PMI climbed to a four-month high of 58.7 in April from 57.6 in March. Analysts had expected an increase to 57.9. Investors expect the Bank of England could hike the interest rates ahead of other central banks.

The Canadian dollar increased against the U.S. dollar despite the weaker-than-expected Canadian economic data. The Canadian trade surplus decreased to C$0.08 billion in March from C$0.85 billion in February. February’s figure was revised up from a surplus of C$0.29 billion. Analysts had expected the trade surplus of C$0.40 billion.

The Ivey PMI declined to 54.1 in April from 55.2 in March. Analysts had expected a decline to 54.0.

The Australian dollar hits 2-week highs against the U.S. dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate at a record low of 2.5%. Analysts expected this decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the Australian dollar remains high by historical standards, but there has been improvement in the labour market. The target for inflation is 2%–3% in the next two years.

Australia’s trade balance surplus dropped to A$713 million in March from A$ 1.26 billion in February. Analysts forecasted a decline to A$1.04 billion.

The New Zealand dollar increased against the most major currencies. New Zealand’s dollar was supported by expectations that the unemployment rate in New Zealand will drop to 5.8% in the first quarter from 6.0% in the previous quarter. The unemployment rate will be released later in the day.

The Japanese yen increased against the U.S. dollar due to demand for the safe-haven yen. Japan’s markets were closed today for a public holiday.

EUR/USD $1.3820, $1.3875, $1.3950

USD/JPY Y101.40, Y102.20, Y102.50

USD/CAD Cad1.0955, Cad1.0970, Cad1.0975, Cad1.0985, Cad1.1005, Cad1.1025

EUR/CHF Chf1.2225

AUD/USD $0.9225, $0.9250, $0.9275, $0.9300

The New Zealand dollar rallied against the U.S. dollar and hits 4-week highs. The weakness of the U.S. dollar supports New Zealand’s currency. The U.S. trade deficit decreased to $40.38 billion in March from $41.87 billion in February. February’s figure was revised down from $42.30 billion. Analysts had expected the decline of trade deficit to $40.30 billion.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia               Trade Balance                                                             March   1.26      1.04       0.73

04:30    Australia               Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate        2.50%   2.50%    2.50%

04:30    Australia               RBA Rate Statement                                                  

07:48    France                 Services PMI (Finally)                                                    April      50.3      50.3       50.4

07:53    Germany              Services PMI (Finally)                                                    April      52.0      52.0       54.7

07:58    Eurozone             Services PMI (Finally)                                                    April      53.1      53.1       53.1

08:30    United Kingdom    Purchasing Manager Index Services                             April      57.6      57.9       58.7

09:00    Eurozone             Retail Sales (MoM)                                                       March   +0.4%    0.0%     +0.3%

09:00    Eurozone             Retail Sales (YoY)                                                        March   +0.8%  +0.9%    +0.9%

09:00    Eurozone             ECOFIN Meetings

09:30    Australia               Annual Budget Release                                                2014                                     

The U.S. dollar plunged against the most major currencies. Market participants are awaiting the release of the U.S. trade balance figures later in the day.

The euro hits 7-week highs against the U.S. dollar. The European currency was supported by the better-than-expected economic data. Eurozone’s month-on-month retail sales increased to 0.3% in March from 0.1% in February. February’s figure was revised down to 0.1% from 0.4%. Analysts had forecasted a rise of 0.2%.

The number of unemployed people in Spain declined by 111,600 in April from a 16,600 decrease in March. Analysts had expected a fall of 49,100.

Spain's services purchasing managers' index rallied to a six-year high of 56.5 in April from 54.0 in March. Analysts had expected an increase to 54.4 in April.

The British pound hits five-year highs. The better-than-expected U.K. services PMI had supported the British currency. The U.K. services PMI climbed to a four-month high of 58.7 in April from 57.6 in March. Analysts had expected an increase to 57.9. Investors expect the Bank of England could hike the interest rates ahead of other central banks.

The Australian dollar hits 2-week highs against the U.S. dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate at a record low of 2.5%. Analysts expected this decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the Australian dollar remains high by historical standards, but there has been improvement in the labour market.

EUR/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.3944

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.6981

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.69

AUD/USD: the currency pair was up to $0.9351

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Canada                  Trade balance, billions                March     0.29      0.60     

12:30    U.S.                       International Trade, bln              March    -42.3     -40.1    

14:00    Canada                  Ivey Purchasing Managers Index April       55.2      57.3     

21:30    U.S.                       FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks                                                 

22:45    New Zealand          Employment Change, q/q           Quarter I +1.1%  +0.7% 

22:45    New Zealand          Unemployment Rate                   Quarter I   6.0%    5.8%    

23:50    Japan                    Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

EUR/USD

Offers $1.4010, $1.4000, $1.3970/80, $1.3950

Bids  $1.3850/40

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7000, $1.6980

Bids $1.6935/30, $1.6914/00, $1.6855/50

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9450, $0.9400, $0.9350, $0.9320

Bids  $0.9255/50, $0.9220, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.80, Y142.50, Y142.20

Bids  Y141.50, Y141.20, Y141.00

USD/JPY

Offers  Y102.50

Bids  Y101.85/80, Y101.50, Y101.20

EUR/GBP

Offers 

Bids stg0.8190-80

EUR/USD $1.3820, $1.3875, $1.3950

USD/JPY Y101.40, Y102.20, Y102.50

USD/CAD Cad1.0955, Cad1.0970, Cad1.0975, Cad1.0985, Cad1.1005, Cad1.1025

EUR/CHF Chf1.2225

AUD/USD $0.9225, $0.9250, $0.9275, $0.9300

The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said today:

- The Australian dollar remains high by historical standards;

- There has been improvement in the labour market;

- The RBA should continue its accommodative monetary policy to boost demand and to help growth to strengthen over time;

- The target for inflation is 2%–3% in the next two years.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia               Trade Balance                                                             March   1.26      1.04       0.73

04:30    Australia               Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate        2.50%   2.50%    2.50%

04:30    Australia               RBA Rate Statement                                                   

07:48    France                 Services PMI (Finally)                                                    April      50.3      50.3       50.4

07:53    Germany              Services PMI (Finally)                                                    April      52.0      52.0       54.7

07:58    Eurozone             Services PMI (Finally)                                                    April      53.1      53.1       53.1

08:30    United Kingdom    Purchasing Manager Index Services                             April      57.6      57.9       58.7

09:00    Eurozone             Retail Sales (MoM)                                                       March   +0.4%    0.0%     +0.3%

09:00    Eurozone             Retail Sales (YoY)                                                        March   +0.8%  +0.9%    +0.9%

09:00    Eurozone             ECOFIN Meetings

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies. Weak China’s HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was the reason for the decline of the U.S. currency. Investors preferred the yen as safe-haven currency.

The New Zealand dollar increased for a sixth day against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was released in New Zealand. Investors are waiting for the publication of New Zealand’s employment report.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate at a record low of 2.5%. Analysts expected this decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the Australian dollar remains high by historical standards, but there has been improvement in the labour market. He added that the RBA should continue its accommodative monetary policy to boost demand and to help growth to strengthen over time. The target for inflation is 2%–3% in the next two years.

Australia’s trade balance surplus dropped to A$713 million in March from A$ 1.26 billion in February. Analysts forecasted a decline to A$1.04 billion.

The Japanese yen traded little changed against the U.S. dollar. Japan’s markets were closed today for a public holiday.

EUR/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.3880

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.6880

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y102.00

AUD/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:30    Australia                Annual Budget Release               2014                                     

12:30    Canada                  Trade balance, billions                March     0.29      0.60      

12:30    U.S.                       International Trade, bln              March    -42.3     -40.1     

14:00    Canada                  Ivey Purchasing Managers Index April       55.2      57.3      

21:30    U.S.                       FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks                                                 

22:45    New Zealand          Employment Change, q/q           Quarter I +1.1%  +0.7%  

22:45    New Zealand          Unemployment Rate                   Quarter I   6.0%    5.8%     

23:50    Japan                    Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3929 (4867)

$1.3906 (2114)

$1.3892 (1262)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3880

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3863 (150)

$1.3847 (477)

$1.3820 (1200)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is 28859  contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (4867);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 35416 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3600 (4083);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.23 versus 1.23 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 5

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7100 (1375)

$1.7000 (1250)

$1.6902 (4247)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6886

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6799 (1366)

$1.6700 (1028)

$1.6600 (1082)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is  19956 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6900 (4247);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 20379 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1869);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.02 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 5

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.