Forex-novosti i prognoze od 03-02-2012

The dollar gained, recovering from an almost postwar low against the yen, after U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast, damping speculation the Federal Reserve will add another round of asset purchases to spur growth. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 243,000, after a revised 203,000 gain in December, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The unemployment rate fell to 8.3 percent. Data this year have signaled the U.S. economy is recovering at a quickening pace. Manufacturing grew in January at the fastest pace in seven months, the Institute for Supply Management reported Feb. 1. Consumer confidence rose last month to the highest level in almost a year, according to a Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index published Jan. 27.

The Japanese currency dropped, after trading within one yen of its post-World War II high versus the dollar, reducing speculation the nation will intervene in the currency market to stem its appreciation. Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi has said he will take decisive steps against one-sided moves in the yen if needed. The currency’s level doesn’t reflect economic fundamentals, and falling U.S. interest rates are increasing speculative yen buying, he told reporters in Tokyo.

The euro erased losses after the European Central Bank was said to be considering using its bond holdings to bolster Greece’s next rescue program and support efforts to contain the sovereign-debt crisis, according to three euro-region officials. The 17-nation shared currency headed for a weekly decline against 15 of its 16 most-traded peers as finance ministers from the euro region’s top-rated countries, meeting in Berlin, didn’t discuss a higher public sector contribution to a second aid program for Greece, reflecting reluctance to place bigger burdens on their taxpayers.

European stocks rose for a fourth day, extending a six-month high, after a report showed that the U.S. economy added more jobs last month than economists had predicted and the unemployment rate unexpectedly retreated.

European stocks extended their advance after a report showed the U.S. economy added 243,000 jobs in January. Employers hired an extra 203,000 people in December. The release also showed that the jobless rate retreated to 8.3 percent, its lowest level since February 2009.

A report showed that services industries in the U.K. unexpectedly increased last month. The measure of activity rose to 56 in January from 54 in December, according to a statement from Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. That beat the average economist estimate for a reading of 53.3.

National benchmark indexes climbed in every western- European market today except Greece. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index added 1.8 percent. France’s CAC 40 Index gained 1.5 percent and Germany’s DAX Index advanced 1.7 percent.

Temenos surged 16 percent to 19.90 Swiss francs, its biggest rally since November 2008, after Misys said it has held talks with the Swiss software maker about an all-share merger. In a separate statement, Temenos said it is “evaluating its strategic options.” Misys gained 1.2 percent to 329.5 pence in London trading.

Admiral jumped 7.9 percent to 1,038 pence, its biggest jump since January 2009. The U.K. car insurer that owns the confused.com website rose the most since January 2009 after saying it has extended its reinsurance partnerships, without increasing its costs.

Daimler AG, the carmaker that makes 24 percent of its sales in the U.S., climbed 3.1 percent to 45.46 euros following the U.S. jobs report.

Volvo AB rose 4.4 percent to 94.70 kronor after the world’s second-largest truckmaker reported fourth-quarter earnings before interest and taxes that increased 26 percent to 6.96 billion kronor ($1.04 billion) from 5.52 billion kronor a year earlier. The Gothenburg, Sweden-based manufacturer posted sales that jumped 18 percent.

U.S. stocks advanced, extending the best start to a year for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 1989, after a report showed that employment growth topped estimates and the jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 8.3 percent. Stocks and bond yields jumped as the report fueled optimism the economy is weathering the European debt crisis. The 243,000 increase in payrolls was the most since April and exceeded all forecasts. The unemployment rate dropped to the lowest since February 2009.

Financial and industrial shares led the gains among 10 groups in the S&P 500. Bank of America (ВАС) added 4.8 percent to $7.81. Caterpillar (САТ) increased 2.4 percent to $112.97. Alcoa (АА) climbed 2.4 percent to $10.67. FedEx jumped 1.4 percent to $94.04.

Genworth Financial soared 14 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $9.18. Chief Executive Officer Michael Fraizer has scaled back the retirement-products business to conserve capital as Genworth seeks to maintain sales of U.S. mortgage coverage. The company has no plans to add more capital to the U.S. mortgage insurance operation, Fraizer said today.

Tyson Foods rose 5.3 percent to $19.61. The meat processor reported first-quarter earnings of 42 cents a share. On average, the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated profit of 34 cents.

Brocade Communications Systems Inc. rose 1.2 percent to $5.90. Blackstone Group LP is studying a leveraged buyout of the company, said a person with knowledge of the situation. While Blackstone is in talks with Brocade, which has been seeking a buyer since 2009, reaching a deal may be difficult, said the person.

Estee Lauder Cos. lost 4.3 percent to $56.32. The maker of Mac cosmetics and Clinique skin care forecast third-quarter earnings of no more than 32 cents a share, before restructuring charges, missing the average analyst estimate of 41 cents.

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3060, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y76.00, Y76.50

AUD/USD $1.0600, $1.0700, $1.0800, $1.0825

EUR/CHF Chf1.2075, Chf1.2000

USD/CAD C$0.9900, C$1.0000

EUR/GBP stg0.8400

Nikkei  8,831.93 -44.89 -0.51%

Hang Seng 20,756.98 +17.53 +0.08%

Shanghai Composite 2,330.4 +17.85 +0.77%

FTSE  5,860.47 +64.40 +1.11%

CAC  3,393.31 +16.65 +0.49%

DAX 6,741.52 +85.89 +1.29%

Crude oil: $96.95 (+0,6%).

Gold: $1754.70 (-0,3%).

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5950, $1.5930, $1.5900, $1.5890

Bids $1.5760/50, $1.5700, $1.5680/70

EUR/USD

Bids $1.3260/80, $1.3250, $1.3200/20

Offers $1.3110/00, $1.3085/80, $1.3055/50, $1.3020

00:15 U.S. FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks 0

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI January 56.0 52.9

The euro headed for a weekly decline against all of its 16 major peers as Greece and its creditors struggle to reach an agreement on a debt swap. The euro held losses from yesterday against the yen as finance ministers from Germany, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands were said to hold talks in Berlin today. Finance ministers from the four euro-area countries with AAA grades from all three major ratings companies -- Germany, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands -- will meet in Berlin today, a German Finance Ministry spokesman. The ministers will discuss current issues without briefing reporters after the meeting, according to the spokesman, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Japan’s currency traded within one yen of a postwar high versus the dollar, raising speculation the country will intervene to weaken it. Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi said today he will take decisive steps against one-sided moves in the yen if needed. The currency’s level doesn’t reflect economic fundamentals, and falling U.S. interest rates are increasing speculative yen buying, he told reporters in Tokyo. Japan sold the yen on Oct. 31 on concern its advance to a record would hurt exporters.

The so-called Aussie slid after reaching a five-month high yesterday as a gauge showed non-manufacturing industries in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, expanded at a slower pace last month.

New Zealand’s currency, nicknamed the kiwi, fell versus all of its major peers as Asian stocks dropped. Australia’s dollar failed to extend a three-day advance against its U.S. counterpart after a report from China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics showed the country’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 52.9 in January from 56 the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion. The Australian and New Zealand currencies were poised to complete a seventh-straight week of gains amid speculation reports today will show an increase in U.S. employment, supporting demand for higher-yielding assets.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair advanced.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair holds in range Y76.13-Y76.26.

European data sees the release of the final services PMI data from the major European states, including France at 0848GMT, Germany at 0853GMT and the main EMU release at 0858GMT. The final PMI figures are expected to remain unrevised from the preliminary figures. EMU retail trade then follows, at 1000GMT. The UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI is also due, at 0928GMT.  The main event is at 1330GMT, when the US Department of Labor Statistics releases its annual benchmark revision of its Current Employment Statistics along with the January report on employment. US data continues at 1500GMT when the ISM on-manufacturing index is expected to rise to a reading of 53.2 in January. Late US data includes the 2115GMT release of C&I loans data.

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3060, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y76.00, Y76.50

AUD/USD $1.0600, $1.0700, $1.0800, $1.0825

EUR/CHF Chf1.2075, Chf1.2000

USD/CAD C$0.9900, C$1.0000

EUR/GBP stg0.8400

00:15 U.S. FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks 0

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI January 56.0 52.9

The euro headed for a weekly decline against all of its 16 major peers as Greece and its creditors struggle to reach an agreement on a debt swap. The euro held losses from yesterday against the yen as finance ministers from Germany, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands were said to hold talks in Berlin today. Finance ministers from the four euro-area countries with AAA grades from all three major ratings companies -- Germany, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands -- will meet in Berlin today, a German Finance Ministry spokesman. The ministers will discuss current issues without briefing reporters after the meeting, according to the spokesman, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Japan’s currency traded within one yen of a postwar high versus the dollar, raising speculation the country will intervene to weaken it. Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi said today he will take decisive steps against one-sided moves in the yen if needed. The currency’s level doesn’t reflect economic fundamentals, and falling U.S. interest rates are increasing speculative yen buying, he told reporters in Tokyo. Japan sold the yen on Oct. 31 on concern its advance to a record would hurt exporters.

The so-called Aussie slid after reaching a five-month high yesterday as a gauge showed non-manufacturing industries in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, expanded at a slower pace last month.

New Zealand’s currency, nicknamed the kiwi, fell versus all of its major peers as Asian stocks dropped. Australia’s dollar failed to extend a three-day advance against its U.S. counterpart after a report from China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics showed the country’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 52.9 in January from 56 the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion. The Australian and New Zealand currencies were poised to complete a seventh-straight week of gains amid speculation reports today will show an increase in U.S. employment, supporting demand for higher-yielding assets.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair advanced.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair holds in range Y76.13-Y76.26.

European data sees the release of the final services PMI data from the major European states, including France at 0848GMT, Germany at 0853GMT and the main EMU release at 0858GMT. The final PMI figures are expected to remain unrevised from the preliminary figures. EMU retail trade then follows, at 1000GMT. The UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI is also due, at 0928GMT.  The main event is at 1330GMT, when the US Department of Labor Statistics releases its annual benchmark revision of its Current Employment Statistics along with the January report on employment. US data continues at 1500GMT when the ISM on-manufacturing index is expected to rise to a reading of 53.2 in January. Late US data includes the 2115GMT release of C&I loans data.

Asian stocks advanced for a third day, with the regional benchmark index heading for its highest close in three months, as manufacturing gained in the U.S. and Europe, boosting confidence the global economy is recovering. Stocks also rose as discussions between Greece and its creditors continued to progress. The Greek government is “one step from closing” a debt-swap deal with private bondholders, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told reporters in Athens yesterday.

Nikkei 225 8,876.82 +67.03 +0.76%

Hang Seng 20,739.45 +406.08 +2.00%

S&P/ASX 200 4,267.85 +42.18 +1.00%

Shanghai Composite 2,312.56 +44.48 +1.96%

LG Electronics Inc. (066570), the world’s No. 3 maker of mobile phones, jumped 7.4 percent in Seoul. Glencore International Plc, rose 5.3 percent in Hong Kong on a report the world’s biggest publicly traded commodities trader is nearing an agreement to combine with Xstrata Plc. Lynas Corp. surged 19 percent in Sydney after the rare earths supplier won approval to start production in Malaysia.

European stocks climbed for a third day as a report showed that U.S. jobless claims dropped more than economists had estimated and Glencore International Plc held talks to buy Xstrata Plc, boosting mining companies.

In the U.S., a Labor Department report showed that applications for unemployment benefits fell last week more than economists had predicted, indicating the labor market is improving in the world’s largest economy.

National benchmark indexes climbed in 14 of the 18 western- European (SXXP) markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index added 0.1 percent. France’s CAC 40 Index gained 0.3 percent and Germany’s DAX Index advanced 0.6 percent.

Xstrata surged 9.9 percent to 1,230.5 pence after confirming that Glencore has held talks to buy the shares in the company that it doesn’t already own. Glencore’s shares soared 6.9 percent to 461.7 pence.

Novo Nordisk A/S rose 4.3 percent to 709.50 kroner after the world’s largest insulin maker posted net income that climbed to 4.69 billion kroner ($830 million) from 3.95 billion kroner a year earlier.

Benetton Group SpA surged 17 percent to 4.74 euros after the Benetton family, the company’s largest shareholder, said it will offer 276.6 million euros ($364 million) for the shares it doesn’t already own in the company. Edizione Holding SpA, which owns 67 percent of Benetton, will offer 4.60 euros a share, it said in a statement last night on the Italian bourse.

Unilever dropped 4.4 percent to 1,994 pence as the maker of Hellmann’s mayonnaise and Lynx deodorants said it expects difficult economic conditions and elevated commodity costs to persist this year.

Most U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a second straight day, as investors awaited tomorrow’s employment report to gauge the strength of the recovery in the world’s largest economy.

A report tomorrow may show employers boosted payrolls in January by 140,000 workers and the jobless rate held at an almost three-year low of 8.5 percent. Data today showed that claims for U.S. jobless benefits fell last week and productivity cooled in the fourth quarter, signaling hiring may accelerate as companies reach the limits of how much efficiency they can wring from

Gap surged 11 percent, the biggest gain in the S&P 500, to $21.52. The San Francisco-based company said it expects fourth- quarter earnings to be as much as 42 cents per share. That beats the 35-cent estimate of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. surged 24 percent, the most since March, to $66.42. The maker of Keurig brand single- cup pods and brewers reported profit that beat analysts’ estimates as sales rose.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. tumbled 14 percent, the biggest decline in the S&P 500, to $40.40. The teen apparel chain reported preliminary fourth-quarter earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates as holiday promotions narrowed profit margins.

Resistance 3 : $1.5930 (61.8% FE $1.5700-$1.5880 from $1.5815)

Resistance 2 : $1.5880 (Feb 1 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5840 (high of the American session on Feb 2)

The current price: $1.5820

Support 1 : $1.5785 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5730 (23.6% FIBO $1.5880-$1.5230)

Support 3 : $1.5640/50 (area of Jan 27-30 low)

Change % Change Last

Oil $96.58 +0.22 +0.23%

Gold $1,763.60 +4.30 +0.24%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,876.82 67,03 +0,76%

Hang Seng 20,739.45 406,08 2,00%

S&P/ASX 200 4,267.85 42,18 +1,00%

Shanghai Composite 2,312.56 44,48 +1,96%

FTSE 100 5,796.07 +5.35 +0.09%

CAC 40 3,376.66 +9.20 +0.27%

DAX 6,655.63 +38.99 +0.59%

Dow 12,705.41 -11.05 -0.09%

Nasdaq 2,859.68 +11.41 +0.40%

S&P 500 1,325.54 +1.45 +0.11%

00:15 U.S. FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks 0

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI January 56.0

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index January -0.9% +0.1%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y January -1.3%

08:50 France Services PMI (finally) January 50.3 51.7

08:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) January 52.4 54.5

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) January 48.8 50.5

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services January 54.0 53.6

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) December -0.8% +0.4%

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) December -2.5% -1.3%

12:00 Canada Employment January 17.5 23.5

12:00 Canada Unemployment rate January 7.5% 7.5%

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls January 200 125

13:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate January 8.5% 8.4%

13:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings January +0.2% +0.2%

13:30 U.S. Average workweek January 34.4 34.4

15:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing January 52.6 52.8

15:00 U.S. Factory Orders December +1.8% +1.2%