Forex-novosti i prognoze od 31-01-2012

The euro fell to its weakest level in almost a week versus the dollar as investors speculated European policy makers won’t be able to reach an agreement regarding Greece’s debt obligations. The euro weakened against the majority of its most- traded peers as Standard & Poor’s increased the number of Portuguese banks on “creditwatch negative.” Greece pledged a last-ditch effort to prevent the collapse of a second rescue package from creditors, aiming to complete talks this week on a financial lifeline that’s been in the works for six months.

The dollar and yen pared earlier losses as stocks fell after consumer confidence and business activity in the U.S. was weaker than forecast in January. The dollar gained against half its major counterparts after Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer decreased to 60.2 from 62.2 in December. Consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in January as gas prices picked up and more Americans said jobs are hard to get.

European stocks rose, posting their best monthly start to a year since 1998, as most countries in the region agreed to tighter budget controls, outweighing worse- than-estimated economic data.

European Union leaders, meeting in Brussels yesterday, agreed on a fiscal-discipline treaty that allows for sanctions on high-deficit states and requires members to enact laws to limit budget shortfalls. Britain and the the Czech Republic refused to sign the pact.

The policy makers also decided to bring the region’s permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, into operation on July 1, a year before schedule.

Greece aims to complete debt-swap talks with bondholders this week. Prime Minister Lucas Papademos told reporters after summit that he is “strongly committed” to reaching a deal.

German unemployment dropped more than economists forecast to a two-decade low in January. The number of people out of work fell a seasonally adjusted 34,000 to 2.85 million, the Federal Labor Agency said. That’s the biggest drop since March.

National benchmark indexes rose in 15 of the 18 western European markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.2 percent, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.2 percent, and France’s CAC 40 gained 1 percent.

Oil gained after the December industrial output rose more than forecast in Japan, the third-biggest crude consumer. BP, Europe’s second-largest oil producer, gained 2.7 percent to 470.85 pence. Shell and Total SA gained 0.5 percent to 2,240.5 pence and 1.5 percent to 40.41 euros, respectively.

ThyssenKrupp, Germany’s largest steelmaker, rose 2.7 percent to 21.67 euros in Frankfurt after agreeing to sell its Inoxum stainless steel unit to Outokumpu Oyj. The deal valued the German company’s unit at about 2.7 billion euros. ThyssenKrupp will retain a 29.9 percent stake in the business, receive 1 billion euros in cash, and transfer liabilities of 422 million euros for Inoxum to Outokumpu. Outokumpu fell 15 percent to 6.27 euros in Helsinki.

ARM Holdings jumped 2 percent to 609.5 pence. The maker of processors for Apple Inc.’s iPads and iPhones said fourth- quarter revenue climbed 21 percent as the company increased the number of licenses sold for smartphones and tablet computers.

U.S. stocks reversed gains, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index toward its longest decline since November, as reports showed consumer confidence trailed economists’ projections and business activity cooled.

Stocks erased gains as reports showed that consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in January and a gauge of business activity fell, underscoring forecasts that the U.S. economy will cool after expanding at the fastest pace since the second quarter 2010. Earlier gains were triggered after most countries in Europe agreed to tighter budget controls and Greece made progress on debt talks.

Dow 12,607.44 -46.28 -0.37%, Nasdaq 2,807.60 -4.34 -0.15%, S&P 500 1,310.40 -2.61 -0.20%

Exxon Mobil dropped 2.1 percent to $83.66. Revenue rose 16 percent to $121.6 billion during the quarter, less than the $124.4 billion average of five analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

UPS lost 1.1 percent to $75.34. The company reported sales of $14.17 billion, missing the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey of $14.45 billion.

ADM sank 5 percent to $28.24. The company, led by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Patricia Woertz, has missed analysts’ estimates for three straight quarters. Operating profit at the agricultural-services unit, the company’s largest segment by revenue in fiscal 2011, fell 63 percent to $158 million after U.S. grain exports declined because of a smaller domestic crop and “adequate” global supplies, ADM said.

RadioShack Corp. tumbled 30 percent to $7.18 after the consumer-electronics retailer suspended share repurchases and reported preliminary fourth-quarter earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates.

Gold prices rise due to the weakening dollar and get ready to show in January, the strongest growth since August 2011.

The euro is rising against the dollar in the hope that Greece will be able to restructure debt and avoid default in March. Although this reduces the attractiveness of gold as a safe asset, concerns about Portugal and evidence of weak performance of the eurozone in the first quarter, support the market.

Yield on 10-year government bonds of Portugal close to 17 percent, from close to its highest level in history, 17.4 per cent of the eurozone. Investors fear that Lisbon is on the way in Athens.

Gold prices rise for four weeks, the growth began on the eve of Chinese New Year due to purchases in China.

Cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1747.7 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3300, $1.3260/80, $1.3215

Bids $1.3160/50, $1.3110/00, $1.3070, $1.3050/30, $1.3010/00

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3265  

USD/JPY Y77.00 

AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0575, $1.0550, $1.0525, $1.0465

EUR/CHF Chf1.2025, Chf1.2100

GBP/USD $1.5735

EUR/JPY Y100.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8400

NZD/USD $0.8225

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence January -33 -31 -29

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence December 2 3

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m December +0.3% +0.4% +0.3%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y December +3.5% +3.6% +3.5%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y December -0.3% -1.4% -7.3%

The dollar weakened against most of its major peers after Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said progress had been made in debt-swap talks with bondholders, sapping demand for a refuge from Europe’s fiscal crisis. Papademos said today he’s “strongly committed” to reaching a debt-swap agreement with Greece’s creditors. Representatives of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund want more fiscal tightening and wage cuts from Greece, the Greek prime minister told reporters after a European Union summit in Brussels.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained as Asian stocks rallied, boosting the allure of higher-yielding currencies. A confidence index in Australia was at 3 last month from 2 in November, according to a National Australia Bank Ltd. survey of about 400 companies from Jan. 9-13 that was released in Sydney today. That was the highest since May. Traders see a 60 percent chance that the RBA will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points when policy makers gather next week, cash rate futures show. Australia’s benchmark rate is currently at 4.25 percent after back-to-back reductions at the central bank’s last two meetings.

The yen climbed to a three-month high against the greenback, spurring speculation that Japan’s government may take action to curb the currency’s advance.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain up to $1.3200.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain showed new week’s high.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair continued decrease.

European data for Tuesday starts at 0700GMT with the German ILO measure of employment along with December and 2011 retail sales data. France data at 0745GMT includes consumer spending, PPI and also housing starts/permits data for December. The main German unemployment data is due at 0855GMT and is expected to see a jobless change of -10k, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.8%. EMU unemployment data is also due, at 1000GMT. The weekly US ICSC Mall Sales is due at 1145GMT, followed at 1330GMT by the Employment Cost Index. This is followed at 1355GMT by the weekly Redbook Chain Story sales, at 1400GMT by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and then at 1445GMT by the Chicago PMI. At 1500GMT, consumer confidence is expected to rise to a reading of 68.0 in January after the solid jump in December to the strongest reading since April.

Asian stocks fell, with a regional benchmark index dropping from a three-month high, ahead of a European summit on the region’s debt crisis and after the U.S. economy expanded less than forecast, hurting the earnings outlook for exporters.

Nikkei 225 8,793 -48.17 -0.54%

Hang Seng 20,230 -271.88 -1.33%

S&P/ASX 200 4,273 -15.63 -0.36%

Shanghai Composite 2,285 -34.08 -1.47%

James Hardie Industries SE (JHX), a building materials supplier that counts the U.S. as its biggest market, fell 1.7 percent in Sydney.

Mitsubishi Electric Corp. slumped 15 percent after Japan barred the electronics maker from bidding on state contracts.

Advantest Corp. jumped 12 percent after the maker of memory-chip testers increased its dividend.

European stocks dropped the most in six weeks as Portuguese bonds sank amid concern a meeting of the region’s leaders will fail to draw a line under the sovereign- debt crisis.

European Union leaders gathered in Brussels for their first summit of 2012 as a deteriorating economy and the struggle to complete a Greek debt write off risk sidetracking efforts to stamp out the financial crisis. EU chiefs are discussing a German-led deficit-control treaty and the statutes of a 500 billion-euro ($661 billion) rescue fund to be set up this year.

The yield on Portugal’s 10-year bonds surged 217 basis points to a euro-era record of 17.39 percent today. Portuguese credit-default swaps also rose to a record, implying a 71 percent chance the government will default.

Euro-area confidence in the economic outlook improved less than forecast in January. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17-nation euro area rose to 93.4 from a revised 92.8 in December, the European Commission said today.

National benchmark indexes fell in every western European market today, except Greece and Iceland. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 lost 1.1 percent, Germany’s DAX slid 1 percent and France’s CAC 40 retreated 1.6 percent.

BNP Paribas tumbled 7.1 percent to 32.18 euros and Societe Generale plunged 6.5 percent to 19.71 euros. The proposed 0.1 percent French transaction tax will apply to share purchases, including high-frequency trading, and CDS transactions, from August. Sarkozy said he expects revenue of 1 billion euros from the tax.

Philips lost 2.2 percent to 15.24 euros as the world’s biggest lightbulb maker reported a 162 million-euro net loss in the fourth quarter. That was wider than analysts’ estimates for a loss of 25.8 million euros.

Hochtief sank 5.8 percent to 48.07 euros after saying it will report a wider loss for 2011 than it had previously anticipated because of additional charges in the fourth quarter at its Australian subsidiary and costs related to the departure of executives. The German builder said the net loss for 2011 will be about 160 million euros, compared with a previous estimate for a loss of about 100 million euros.

ThyssenKrupp AG and Salzgitter AG, Germany’s biggest steelmakers, fell 3.6 percent to 21.11 euros and 5.1 percent to 45.47 euros, respectively.

U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a third day, as European leaders sparred with Greece over a second rescue program.

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos rejected reports of plans to appoint a European Union commissioner to oversee the nation’s budget, citing “national dignity.” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Greek debt-swap talks with private bondholders are “going in the right direction” and the issue should be settled in the next few days.

Bank of America (ВАС) dropped 3 percent to $7.07 after Goldman Sachs cut its recommendation for the shares to “neutral” from “buy.”

Gannett tumbled 6.9 percent to $14.17. Revenue from the publishing division, the largest unit, declined 5.3 percent as advertising and circulation fell. The newspaper industry overall has continued to lose ad business to Internet companies such as Google Inc. and Facebook Inc.

Staples Inc. declined 4.9 percent to $15.23. The world’s largest office products company was cut to “sell” from “neutral” by Goldman Sachs, which cited a “tough” outlook for the global printing segment.

Measures of telephone and technology companies in the S&P 500 rallied. Apple added 1.3 percent to $453.01. Microsoft (MSFT) gained 1.3 percent to $29.61. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) rose 1.1 percent to $37.61.

Resistance 3 : $1.5815 (Nov 16-17 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5770 (Dec 21 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5740 (session high)

The current price: $1.5732

Support 1 : $1.5685 (support line from Jan 18)

Support 2 : $1.5640/50 (area of Jan 27-30 low)

Support 3 : $1.5600 (MA (233) H1)

Change % Change Last

Oil $98.88 +0.10 +0.10%

Gold $1,727.90 -3.10 -0.18%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,793 -48.17 -0.54%

Hang Seng 20,230 -271.88 -1.33%

S&P/ASX 200 4,273 -15.63 -0.36%

Shanghai Composite 2,285 -34.08 -1.47%

CAC 40 3,363 +50.75 +1.53%

DAX 6,540 +118.00 +1.84%

Dow 12,653.72 -6.74 -0.05%

Nasdaq 2,811.94 -4.61 -0.16%

S&P 500 1,313.02 -3.31 -0.25%

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence January -33 -31

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence December 2

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m December +0.3% +0.4%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y December +3.5% +3.6%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y December -0.3% -1.4%

07:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator December 0.81

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted December -0.9% +0.9%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y December +0.8% +0.9%

07:45 France Consumer spending December -0.1% +0.3%

08:55 Germany Unemployment Change January -22 -8

08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. January 6.8% 6.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln December 1.0 1.2

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate December 10.3% 10.4%

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) November 0.0% +0.2%

13:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index December +3.8% +0.2%

13:30 Canada Industrial product prices, m/m December +0.2% +0.1%

14:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y November -3.4% -3.2%

14:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index January 62.5 63.2

15:00 U.S. Consumer confidence January 64.5 68.4