Forex-novosti i prognoze od 03-08-2012

The dollar fell against most major currencies after the release of unexpectedly positive U.S. data on employment. According to the data, the number of jobs outside agriculture in the U.S. in July increased by 163,000, while economists had expected growth to 95 000.

In addition, in July, the ISM index in the U.S. service sector grew more strongly than in the previous month, helped by a substantial increase in orders. The indicator rose to 52.6 versus 52.1 in June. Economists expected the index would remain unchanged, while the analysts' estimates ranged from 50.5 to 53. Business activity and new orders showed an increase, while the employment component fell for the first time in December 2011, reaching 49.3 versus 52.3 in June.

The euro rose against other major currencies, receiving support from lower yields on bonds of Spain and Italy. In addition, the single currency is growing on rumors that the EFSF is going to give the banks their sovereign bonds. Earlier, the euro grew up on rumors that the Spanish Government intends to hold an unscheduled press conference, during which the authorities have formally requested the support of EFSF. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year bonds dropped from Spain's level of 4.48% to 3.75%. Today we have published data on the PMI index in the euro area - the weak PMI data for France and Italy were offset by more favorable from those of Germany and the eurozone.

European stocks rose for a ninth week as U.S. economic data surpassed estimates, outweighing comments by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that disappointed investors looking for more definitive steps to support growth.

A U.S. report showed nonfarm payrolls in the world’s largest economy climbed more than forecast in July. Employers added 163,000 workers last month, according to the Labor Department. That exceeded the 100,000 median estimate of economists.

Confidence among American consumers unexpectedly rose for the first time in five months, a report on July 31 showed. The Confidence Board’s index increased to 65.9 last month from 62.7 in June. Economists projected a reading of 61.5.

National benchmark indexes rose in 16 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 Index gained 2.9 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index advanced 2.8 percent, while Germany’s DAX Index jumped 2.6 percent.

Vestas jumped 11 percent. The world’s biggest wind-turbine maker allayed investor concern that it may breach its loan covenants, leading to a default scenario. The company said its banks agreed to let it draw on credit lines and defer a test of the covenants.

Air France rallied 11 percent. The company’s operating loss narrowed to 66 million euros ($82 million) from 145 million euros a year earlier, helped by the introduction of a 2 billion- euro savings plan, Air France said on July 30. That beat the 163 million-euro average estimate of analysts.

Oil surged the most in a month after U.S. payrolls climbed more than estimated and service industries expanded at a faster pace, bolstering optimism about economic strength in the world’s biggest crude-consuming country.

Futures rose as much as 5.3 percent as payrolls gained 163,000 last month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The Institute for Supply Management’s non- manufacturing index unexpectedly increased. Tropical Storm Ernesto may grow into a hurricane late this weekend, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Payrolls were projected to increase by 100,000, according to the median estimate of 89 economists. Revisions to prior reports subtracted a total of 6,000 jobs to payrolls in the previous two months. The jobless rate unexpectedly rose to 8.3 percent, a five-month high.

The ISM index rose to 52.6, from 52.1 in June, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. The median forecast of 73 economists called for no change from June. A reading above 50 signals expansion.

Crude oil for September delivery rose to $91.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are headed for the biggest gain since June 29. Prices are up 1.7 percent this week, and have dropped 7.3 percent this year.

Brent oil for September settlement advanced $3.09, or 2.9 percent, to $108.99 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The cost of gold is rising against the backdrop of statistical data from the U.S.. So, in July, the ISM index in the U.S. service sector grew more strongly than in the previous month, helped by a substantial increase in orders. The indicator rose to 52.6 versus 52.1 in June. Economists expected the index would remain unchanged, while the analysts' estimates ranged from 50.5 to 53.

Business activity and new orders showed an increase, while the employment component fell for the first time in December 2011, reaching 49.3 versus 52.3 in June.

Recall that was published August 1 indicator of activity in the manufacturing sector, which said the second month of the fall against the backdrop of slowing global economic growth.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1602.9 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.2025, $1.2180, $1.2195, $1.2200, $1.2240, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2325,1.2370. $1.2000

USD/JPY Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.75

GBP/USD $1.5580

USD/CAD C$1.0000

AUD/USD  $1.0500, $1.0550

U.S. stock futures advanced as payrolls climbed more than forecast in July even as the jobless rate unexpectedly rose to a five-month high.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,555.11 -98.07 -1.13%
Hang Seng 19,666.18 -24.02 -0.12%
Shanghai Composite 2,132.8 +21.61 +1.02%
FTSE  5,765.88 +103.58 +1.83%
CAC  3,331.28 +98.82 +3.06%
DAX 6,785.36 +179.27 +2.71%
Crude oil $89.09 +2,25%
Gold $1592.70 +0.13%

Data:

07:50 France Services PMI (finally) July 47.9 50.2 50.0

07:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) July 49.9 49.7 50.3

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) July 47.1 47.6 47.9

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services July 51.3 51.7 51.0

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) June +0.6% +0.1% 0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) June -1.7% -1.8% -1.2%

The euro rose on rumors that the Spanish Government intends to hold an unscheduled press conference, during which the authorities have formally requested the support of EFSF. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year bonds dropped from Spain's level of 4.48% to 3.75%. Today we have published data on the PMI index in the euro area - the weak PMI data for France and Italy were offset by more favorable from those of Germany and the eurozone.

Players are waiting for data on the labor market in the U.S., which may give the Fed a reason for the introduction of a new anti-crisis measures. Analysts expect that U.S. employers created in July of 100,000 new jobs outside the agricultural sector after 80,000 in June. If the result is much worse than expected, it will reinforce expectations that the Fed will launch new measures to support the flagging economy.

EUR / USD: the pair during the session showed a steady growth of up to $ 1.2292 and is now trading near $ 1.2249

GBP / USD: the pair rose to $ 1.5598

USD / JPY: the pair rose to Y78.35

At 12:30 GMT the United States become aware of the level of unemployment, change in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sector, private sector and the manufacturing sector in July. Also at this time there are data on changes in average hourly wages for July. Finish the day at 14:00 GMT U.S. publication of information on the composite index for the ISM service sector in July.

EUR/USD
Offers  $1.2420, $1.2350, $1.2300
Bids  $1.2230, $1.2100/090, $1.2075/70

GBP/USD
Offers  $1.5650, $1.5630/35, $1.5600/10
Bids  $1.5555/45, $1.5530, $1.5480

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0650, $1.0635/40, $1.0600, $1.0550/60
Bids  $1.0450, $1.0430, $1.0400

EUR/JPY
Offers Y97.00, Y96.80, Y96.50, Y96.30, Y96.00
Bids Y95.40, Y95.10, Y95.00, Y94.70/60, Y94.50

USD/JPY
Offers  Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.65/70, Y78.50, Y78.30
Bids Y78.10, Y78.00, Y77.90

European stocks advanced, paring yesterday’s largest slide for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index in more than a week, as investors awaited the monthly U.S. jobs and unemployment report.

Draghi yesterday announced that the ECB has a plan to re- enter bond markets and said new purchases in the secondary market would only complement buying by the European Union’s rescue fund in the primary market, to which strict conditionality is attached.

In the U.S., a Labor Department report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington may show that the pace of hiring in July failed to reduce the jobless rate, which has held above 8 percent for more than three years.

Allianz rose 3.3 percent to 81.24 euros as second-quarter profit climbed more than analysts had predicted after earnings increased at its life and health business. Net income of 1.23 billion euros topped the average 1.15 billion-euro average estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Axa climbed 1.2 percent to 9.82 euros as first-half operating profit, which excludes capital gains, one-off charges and asset-valuation swings, rose to 2.3 billion euros, helped by rising revenue from health and property-and-casualty insurance. That exceeded the 2.15 billion-euro average estimate.

Siemens climbed 4.3 percent to 71.25 euros, its biggest gain this month, after the company said it will repurchase equities and cancel 33 million shares held in treasury. Siemens said it will use the buybacks to reduce capital stock, to issue shares to employees and board members and to back convertible bonds and warrants.

FTSE 100 5,728.02 +65.72 +1.16%

CAC 40 3,295.03 +62.57 +1.94%

DAX 6,720.1 +114.01 +1.73%

EUR/USD $1.2025, $1.2180, $1.2195, $1.2200, $1.2240, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2325,1.2370. $1.2000

USD/JPY Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.75

GBP/USD $1.5580

USD/CAD C$1.0000

AUD/USD  $1.0500, $1.0550

Asian stocks fell for a third day after the European Central Bank failed to deliver immediate action to stem the debt crisis and amid speculation China’s monetary authorities will be slow to ease policy. Sharp  Corp. led technology shares lower after it forecast a wider loss.

Nikkei 225 8,555.11 -98.07 -1.13%

S&P/ASX 200 4,221.5 -48.04 -1.13%

Shanghai Composite 2,128.24 +17.06 +0.81%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.  paced declines among banks after surging bond yields in Spain and Italy stoked concern Europe’s debt crisis may hamper the global financial system.

Sharp, Japan’s largest maker of liquid-crystal displays, plunged 28 percent after widening its full-year loss forecast and announcing job cuts.

ResMed Inc., the world’s second-biggest maker of machines to regulate breathing for people with sleep disorders, jumped 9.3 percent in Sydney after earnings beat analyst estimates.

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI July 56.7 55.6

The euro slid against the yen and the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi failed to offer sufficient measures to curb the region’s debt crisis.

The shared currency fell versus all of its 16 most-traded peers after Draghi said Germany’s Bundesbank has reservations about his plan to buy bonds, which remains to be fleshed out.

ECB officials are working on a plan to buy bonds in sufficient quantities to ease Europe’s fiscal turmoil, Draghi said. Details will be released in coming weeks, he told reporters at a news conference in Frankfurt.

The pound gained for the first time in three days versus the euro after the Bank of England kept its bond-buying program and interest rate unchanged. U.K. Monetary Policy Committee maintained its bond-buying program at 375 billion pounds ($582 billion) and left interest rates at a record-low 0.5 percent, in line with the median forecasts.

Asian stocks outside Japan fell, with the regional benchmark index set to drop for a second day, as investors await a policy announcement by the European Central Bank after the Federal Reserve refrained from adding stimulus to the U.S. economy. The European Central Bank is scheduled to make a policy announcement today, with President Mario Draghi pledging policy makers will do whatever is needed to preserve the euro. Most investors in Asia, the Americas and Europe expect the ECB will engage in sovereign-bond purchases in support of Spain and Italy, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note yesterday, citing a survey of 410 people.

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,592 -16 -0.96%

Oil 87.28 -1.63 -1.83%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,653.18 +11.33 +0.13%

S&P/ASX 200 4,269.5 +6.74 +0.16%

Shanghai Composite 2,111.41 -11.95 -0.56%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2181 -0,39%

GBP/USD $1,5514 -0,15%

USD/CHF Chf0,9859 +0,34%

USD/JPY Y78,24 -0,23%

EUR/JPY Y95,31 -0,61%

GBP/JPY Y121,36 -0,39%

AUD/USD $1,0457 -0,02%

NZD/USD $0,8096 +0,19%

USD/CAD C$1,0072 +0,22%

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI July 56.7

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index July +1.0%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y July -0.5%

07:50 France Services PMI (finally) July 47.9 50.2

07:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) July 49.9 49.7

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) July 47.1 47.6

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services July 51.3 51.7

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) June +0.6% +0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) June -1.7% -1.8%

12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate July 8.2% 8.2%

12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls July 80 101

12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings July +0.3% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Average workweek July 34.5 34.5

14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing July 52.1 52.2