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Forex-novosti i prognoze od 07-08-2012
The euro rose amid speculation that the European Central Bank is taking appropriate measures to quell the region’s debt crisis.
Euro gains were supported as the European Union said it had received no requests for the region’s rescue fund to buy government bonds. Norway’s krone climbed after manufacturing increased.
ECB President Mario Draghi outlined a plan last week under which the ECB may buy debt of struggling euro-bloc countries in tandem with the region’s bailout fund, while saying the details still need to be worked out over the coming weeks.
Canada’s dollar gained to a three- month high against its U.S. counterpart as risk appetite increased and crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, rose.
The currency strengthened beyond parity for a third day as a gauge of Canadian business spending rose more than forecast.
U.S. stocks advanced amid better-than-estimated corporate earnings and speculation global central banks will take steps to boost economic growth.
Currently:
Dow 13,200.08 +83.29 +0.63%
Nasdaq 3,024.43 +34.52 +1.15%
S&P 500 1,405.75 +11.52 +0.83%
Crude oil futures traded above the two-week high of $ 110 per barrel. Impact on the growth of published data, which showed that corporate earnings have increased more than expected. Distinguished in this regard CVS Caremark Corporation and Chesapeake Energy. It also reinforced the optimism that the economy will expand. The price of Brent crude oil for the first time exceeded $ 110 per barrel in May of this year. Also on the rise in prices affected by the tense situation in Syria.
At the same time, it became known that the projected daily exports of North Sea oil in September, will decrease by 7% compared with August. It is expected that exports will be at the level of 720,000 barrels per day compared with 774,194 barrels in August, which would be the lowest in the last five years.
According to the median forecast U.S. crude stocks fell by 1.6 million barrels, or 0.4%, to 372 million within seven days (August 3). Official figures tomorrow will provide the Department of Energy. Recall that oil reserves have fallen to 6520000 barrels for the week ended July 27, at the same time showing the largest decline since December.
The cost of the September futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX rose to a high of $93,28 per barrel.
September futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture increased to $111,60 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.
Gold prices rose above $ 1615 an ounce against a background of recovery of the euro against the dollar and a rise in the stock markets. We also learned that the European Central Bank will reduce interest rates on loans for Spain and Italy.
Market participants, who put on the increase in the price of gold hoping that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin another round of quantitative easing later this year, while maintaining long-term interest rates at extremely low levels.
But the problem is that the Fed did not give clear deadlines for holding the next QE, and the ECB president Mario Draghi did not name the date of the next round of bond buying.
Also worth noting is that the demand for gold in India, which is the main consumer was sluggish before the season of active purchases, which begins this month and runs through until November. Stocks of gold ETFs have shown in the flow of bag are his work only 6.9 tons, which was the biggest one-day influx of an ounce from March 1, with the bulk flow was recorded outside the United States.
The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1615.7 dollars per ounce, then dropped and is now trading at around 1611.2 dollars per ounce.
EUR/USD $1.2400, $1.2425, $1.2500
USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.50
GBP/USD $1.5750
EUR/GBP stg0.7970, stg0.7925, stg0.7910
USD/CHF Chf0.9700, Chf0.9800
AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0550, $1.0600, $1.0615, $1.0635
U.S. stock-index futures advanced as weak economic data from Europe led some investors to speculate policy makers will announce stimulus measures.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,803.31 +77.02 +0.88%
Hang Seng 20,072.55 +73.83 +0.37%
Shanghai Composite 2,157.62 +2.70 +0.13%
FTSE 5,813.19 +4.42 +0.08%
CAC 3,439.96 +38.40 +1.13%
DAX 6,950.86 +32.14 +0.46%
Crude oil $92.76 +0,61%
Gold $1616.80 +0.04%
Data
04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate - 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement -
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate July 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves July 364.9 406.5
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) July -0.3% -0.5% -0.5%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) July -1.1% -0.8% -0.7%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) June +1.0% -3.2% -2.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) June -1.6% -5.3% -4.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) June +1.2% -3.9% -2.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) June -1.7% -5.7% -4.3%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) June +0.6% -0.8% -1.7%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) June -5.4% -7.0% -5.4%
The euro rose against the yen and dollar after Germany declared that it supported the proposal of the President of the European Central Bank's Mario Draghi to stop the debt crisis in the region.
The single currency showed growth after a report showed that the economy of Italy fell less than expected by economists predicted. Italian gross domestic product fell by 0.7% in the second quarter. The average score of economists was at -0.8%. In annual terms, GDP fell by 2.5%.
Euro continued to rise even after the German Ministry of Economics has stated that the volume of industrial orders fell by 1.7% in June, after rising 0.7% in May. Economists had forecast that the decline of 0.8%.
The Swiss franc rose against the dollar and was little changed against the euro after the central bank of Switzerland said that foreign exchange reserves rose to record levels in July.
The Australian dollar rose to its highest level since March, after the Reserve Bank of Australia left the level of interest rates unchanged.
The course of the yen rose against the dollar after growth stocks around the world has stimulated speculation that the Bank of Japan will refrain from further easing of monetary policy at a meeting this week.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair shows a marked increase, updating the maximum session
GBP / USD: a couple has more than one figure, and is now trading in the region of maximum values at $ 1.5675
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair has grown and is now trading at Y78.45
At 12:30 GMT in Canada will change in the volume of building permits issued for June. At 14:00 GMT, Canada will report on the PMI index from the Ivey (including with seasonally adjusted) in July. At 14:00 GMT, Britain will publish data on the change in GDP from the NIESR in July. At 20:30 GMT the U.S. will change in the volume of crude oil, according to the API for August. Finish the day at 23:50 GMT, Japan, and the data on the total adjusted current account surplus in June.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2480, $1.2445
Bids $1.2370, $1.2360/50, $1.2335/25, $1.2305/00
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5750
Bids $1.5615/00, $1.5585/80, $1.5535/30
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0635/40, $1.0620
Bids $1.0555/50, $1.0500, $1.0480, $1.0450
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8015/20, stg0.8000, stg0.7965/70
Bids stg0.7910/00, stg0.7885/80, stg0.7855/50
EUR/JPY
Offers Y98.00, Y97.80, Y97.50
Bids Y96.70, Y96.50, Y96.20,
Y96.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.60/65, Y78.50
Bids Y78.10, Y78.00
In the course of trade is influenced by macro-economic data.
Today we have published figures for industrial production of the UK, although the indices are in negative territory, however, showed that the decline in production slows down.
Greece placed a 26-week treasury bonds worth 812.5 million euros.
The ratio of demand to the cover and 26-week Greek bonds was 2.06 against 2.16. Yield of 26-week-old bonds of Greece 4.68%.
At the moment:
FTSE 100 5,787.87 -20.90 -0.36%
DAX 6,934.06 +15.34 +0.22%
CAC 3,415.36 +13.80 +0.41%
Xstrata shares rose 1.89% after reporting a net profit for the I half of 2012 in the amount of $ 1.94 billion forecast by analysts at 1.49 billion dollars
Quotes of the British bank Standard Chartered fell by 15.65% after U.S. regulators threatened to freeze the activities of the lender because of the transactions with Iranian banks.
EUR/USD $1.2400, $1.2425, $1.2500
USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.50
GBP/USD $1.5750
EUR/GBP stg0.7970, stg0.7925, stg0.7910
USD/CHF Chf0.9700, Chf0.9800
AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0550, $1.0600, $1.0615, $1.0635
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for its highest close in three months, after Germany backed the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan, boosting the outlook for Asia-Pacific exporters.
Nikkei 225 8,803.31 +77.02 +0.88%
S&P/ASX 200 4,291.6 +19.01 +0.45%
Shanghai Composite 2,155.54 +0.63 +0.03%
Esprit Holdings Ltd., a clothier that counts Europe as its largest market, gained 25 percent in Hong Kong after it named a new chief executive officer.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest miner, rose 0.5 percent in Sydney after metal prices increased.
Toshiba Corp., which makes semi-conductors and parts for nuclear reactors, advanced 3.5 percent in Tokyo as it was raised to outperform at CLSA Asia Pacific Markets.
Japanese utilities gained as they rebounded from last month’s plunge.
04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate - 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement -
The yen remained stronger versus the dollar as a rally in equities worldwide spurred speculation the Bank of Japan will refrain from additional monetary easing at a policy meeting that starts tomorrow. The BOJ probably won’t change its view that Japan’s economy is picking up moderately, the Nikkei newspaper reported, without saying where it got the information. All 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast the central bank will keep its benchmark overnight target rate at 0.1 percent at this week’s two-day meeting.
This will be the first central bank meeting with new board members Takahide Kiuchi and Takehiro Sato, who have both signaled willingness to consider fresh forms of easing.
Demand for the euro was supported after Merkel’s government backed ECB President Mario Draghi’s proposals on bond buying to help bring down borrowing costs in Spain and Italy. Germany is “not worried” by Draghi’s announcement of Aug. 2, deputy Merkel spokesman Georg Streiter told reporters in Berlin yesterday, when asked whether the government is concerned that ECB independence might be compromised. Draghi outlined a plan last week under which the ECB may buy debt of struggling euro-bloc countries in tandem with the euro area’s bailout fund, while saying the details still need to be worked out over the coming weeks.
Italy’s Monti said that disagreements within the euro area are detracting from the policy response to the debt crisis, according to an interview with Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine published Aug. 5. He said he backed the ECB’s willingness to address “severe malfunctioning” in the government bond market.
The Australian dollar rose to the highest in more than four months after the nation’s Reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5 percent at a policy meeting today.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair was traded in range $1.2385-$1.2405.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell, dropping below $1.5600.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range Y78.15-Y78.30.
Core-European data sees Italy industrial output for June as well as the flash estimate of Q2 GDP data at 0800GMT. Germany manufacturing orders for June are due at 1000GMT and are expected to come in at -1.0% m/m, -7.2% y/y. UK data at 0830GMT includes weekly fuel prices as well as Industrial Production. US data starts at 1145GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data, followed at 1255GMT by the weekly Redbook Average. At 1400GMT, the Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for July is due. Later on, at 1830GMT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hosts a town hall meeting with educators from across the country at Board headquarters.
The dollar fell as risk appetite increased amid speculation central banks may take further steps to boost economic growth.
The euro pared losses as German Chancellor Angel Merkel’s government backed the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan.
The dollar dropped amid speculation a payrolls gain of 163,000 jobs in July wasn’t big enough to keep the Federal Reserve from taking further steps to spur the economy. Fed policy makers said Aug. 1 after a meeting that they “will provide additional accommodation as needed,” while they refrained from expanding monetary easing this month.
The euro fell earlier versus the yen and dollar after Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti said divisions within the 17- nation currency bloc are threatening the European Union’s future.
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for its highest close in a month, after better-than-forecast data for U.S. employment and the services industry eased investor concern that growth is slowing in the world’s largest economy.
Li & Fung Ltd., which gets 60% of its sales from the U.S., climbed 3.9% in Hong Kong.Asahi Glass Co. jumped 7.3% in Tokyo after Nomura Holdings Inc. raised its rating to buy from neutral on its profit outlook.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest miner, increased 2.2% in Sydney after commodity prices advanced.
Sharp Corp., a consumer electronics maker that widened its loss forecast last week, sank 5.7% in Tokyo.
European stocks rose as Greece and its creditors agreed on the need to strengthen policy efforts to support economic growth.
Greece and its international creditors have agreed on the need to strengthen policy efforts and comply with its bailout terms after more than a week of meetings.
Representatives from the so-called troika of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund met with Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras in Athens yesterday at the conclusion of the meetings. The talks will determine whether Greece continues receiving funds from the country’s 240 billion euros ($297 billion) of rescue packages.
BNP Paribas jumped 4.1% following Draghi’s push to set up a bond-buying plan. Credit Agricole climbed 5.0%, Societe Generale increased 2.8%.
Peugeot SA rallying 8.0% after Toyota, Asia’s largest automaker, reported profit that beat analysts’ estimates and raised its sales target. Renault SA climbed 4.5%, Fiat increased 4.0%.
U.S. stocks rose as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government backed the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan and earnings beat forecasts.
U.S. stocks followed European shares higher as Merkel’s government backed the ECB’s bond-buying plan announced last week, her deputy spokesman Georg Streiter said today. About 73% of the S&P 500 companies which reported second-quarter results have beaten earnings estimates even as 59 percent missed sales projections, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) increased at least 1.5%.
Change % Change Last
Oil $92.14 +0.74 +0.81%
Gold $1,615.60 -0.60 -0.04%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 8,726.29 +171.18 +2.00%
Hang Seng 19,998.72 +332.54 +1.69%
Shanghai Composite 2,154.92 +22.12 +1.04%
FTSE 5,815.26 +27.98 +0.48%
CAC 3,402.26 +28.07 +0.83%
DAX 6,918.01 +52.35 +0.76%
S&P 1,394.23 +3.24 +0.23%NASDAQ 2,989.91 +22.01 +0.74%
Dow 13,117.66 +21.49 +0.16%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2396 +0,10%
GBP/USD $1,5599 -0,26%
USD/CHF Chf0,9689 -0,10%
USD/JPY Y78,25 -0,26%
EUR/JPY Y97,00 -0,15%
GBP/JPY Y122,05 -0,54%
AUD/USD $1,0562 -0,05%
NZD/USD $0,8197 +0,20%
USD/CAD C$1,0002 -0,09%
04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate - 3.50% 3.50%
04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement -
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate July 2.9% 2.9%
07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves July 364.9
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) July -0.3% -0.5%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) July -1.1% -0.8%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) June +1.0% -3.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) June -1.6% -5.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) June +1.2% -3.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) June -1.7% -5.7%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) June +0.6% -0.8%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) June -5.4% -7.0%
12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) June +7.4% -3.5%
14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index June 49.0 51.7
14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate July -0.2%
18:30 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks -
19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit June 17.1 12.0
22:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m July +5.7% +3.0%
23:50 Japan Current Account Total, bln June 215.1 415.2
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