Forex-novosti i prognoze od 06-08-2012

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06.08.2012

19:01

Dow 13,169.09 +72.92 +0.56%, Nasdaq 2,998.62 +30.72 +1.04%, S&P 1,398.62 +7.63 +0.55%

18:22

UBS: “There are probably considerations to see whether Spain requests official EFSF assistance. If that happens, the market would probably welcome it, and it would be another step toward a structural solution for the euro zone.”

17:23

American focus: the dollar retreated

The dollar fell as risk appetite increased amid speculation central banks may take further steps to boost economic growth.

The euro pared losses as German Chancellor Angel Merkel’s government backed the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan.

The dollar dropped amid speculation a payrolls gain of 163,000 jobs in July wasn’t big enough to keep the Federal Reserve from taking further steps to spur the economy. Fed policy makers said Aug. 1 after a meeting that they “will provide additional accommodation as needed,” while they refrained from expanding monetary easing this month.

The euro fell earlier versus the yen and dollar after Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti said divisions within the 17- nation currency bloc are threatening the European Union’s future.

16:39

Oil fell

Oil slid on concern the European debt crisis is worsening and on speculation that the biggest gain in more than a month was excessive.

Crude dropped as much as 0.8 percent after Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti warned of a potential breakup of Europe without greater urgency in efforts to lower government borrowing costs. Oil surged on Aug. 3 as a government report showed U.S. payrolls climbed more than estimated.

Oil for September delivery slid 66 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $90.74 a barrel at 9:15 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It rallied 4.9 percent on Aug. 3, the biggest gain since June 29. Prices are 8.2 percent lower this year.

Brent crude for September settlement fell 87 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $108.07 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

16:31

Gold climbed

Gold prices rose on Monday, extending the last session’s recovery from four days of declines, as investors bet that Friday’s better-than-expected jobs data would not be enough to head off another round of monetary easing in the United States.

The precious metal briefly dipped in the wake of data showing US employers added more jobs than expected last month, but quickly rebounded as traders digested a rise in the jobless rate to 8.3%.

Speculation that the Federal Reserve may have to unleash another round of quantitative easing — essentially, printing money — to boost US growth has firmly underpinned gold prices this year.

Further monetary easing would maintain pressure on long-term interest rates, keeping the opportunity cost of holding gold at rock bottom, as well as weighing on the dollar and boosting inflation expectations in the longer run.

US gold futures for December delivery were up $1.90 an ounce at $1611.20.

16:03

European stocks close

European stocks rose as Greece and its creditors agreed on the need to strengthen policy efforts to support economic growth.
Greece and its international creditors have agreed on the need to strengthen policy efforts and comply with its bailout terms after more than a week of meetings.
Representatives from the so-called troika of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund met with Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras in Athens yesterday at the conclusion of the meetings. The talks will determine whether Greece continues receiving funds from the country’s 240 billion euros ($297 billion) of rescue packages.
BNP Paribas jumped 4.1% following Draghi’s push to set up a bond-buying plan. Credit Agricole climbed 5.0%, Societe Generale increased 2.8%.
Peugeot SA rallying 8.0% after Toyota, Asia’s largest automaker, reported profit that beat analysts’ estimates and raised its sales target. Renault SA climbed 4.5%, Fiat increased 4.0%.
On result of today’s session:

FTSE 5,815.26 +27.98 +0.48%

CAC 3,402.26 +28.07 +0.83%

DAX 6,918.01 +52.35 +0.76%

14:47

FTSE 100 5,820.07 +32.79 +0.57%, CAC 40 3,409.59 +35.40 +1.05%, DAX 6,930.02 +64.36 +0.94%

13:47

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.2300, $1.2350, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.25, Y78.35, Y79.00

EUR/JPY Y95.50

GBP/USD $1.5600

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0520

13:36

US Stocks open: Dow 13,130.98 +34.81 +0.27%, Nasdaq 2,976.63 +8.73 +0.29%, S&P 1,394.15 +3.16 +0.23%

13:26

Before the bell: S&P futures +0.18%, Nasdaq futures +0.41%

U.S. stocks advanced amid better-than-estimated corporate earnings.

Global Stocks

FTSE 5,808.64 +21.36 +0.37%
CAC 3,398.28 +24.09 +0.71%
DAX 6,909.06 +43.40 +0.63%
Nikkei 8,726.29 +171.18 +2.00%
Hang Seng 19,998.72 +332.54 +1.69%
Shanghai Composite 2,154.92 +22.12 +1.04%
Crude oil $91.02 -0,42%
Gold $1612.70 +0.21%

13:18

European session: The pound fell against the dollar

Data:

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index July +1.0% -0.6%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y July -0.5% -0.6%

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence August -29.6 -30.7 -30.3

The pound fell against the dollar, extending last week’s decline, after two reports showing weakness in the U.K. housing market underlined the fragility of Britain’s economy. Sterling dropped to a four-week low against the euro after Rightmove Plc (RMV) said home sellers may need to lower prices to lure buyers, and Halifax data showed house prices declined last month.
The euro fell against the yen and dollar after Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti said divisions over the debt crisis are threatening the continent’s future, amid German opposition to sovereign-bond purchases. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi last week outlined a plan under which the central bank may buy debt in tandem with the euro governments’ bailout fund, while saying the details still need to be worked out over the coming weeks. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in an interview published a day before Draghi’s comments that the ECB shouldn’t exceed its mandate.
Europe’s common currency slipped from its strongest level in three weeks against the yen after a report showed European investor confidence dropped for a fifth month in August as the region grapples with the almost three-year-old financial turmoil. An index measuring sentiment in the 17-nation euro region slid to minus 30.3, from minus 29.6 in July, Limburg, Germany- based Sentix said in an e-mailed statement today.

EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $1.2340, but later recovered.
GBP/USD: during the European session, the pair fell below $1.5550.
USD/JPY: during the European session the pair continued to fall and fallen to Y78.25.

US events start at 1330GMT, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks via recorded video to the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, taking place in Boston.

13:02

Upgrades and downgrades of Dow Jones Industrial components before the market open:

Kraft Foods (KFT) was upgraded to a Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
Stifel Nicolaus upgrades Wal-Mart (WMT) to Buy from Hold.

12:18

Orders

EUR/USD
Offers   $1.2500, $1.2480, $1.2445, $1.2420, $1.2400/05
Bids   $1.2235/25, $1.2305/00, $1.2280/70

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5620, $1.5600, $1.5580/85
Bids   $1.5545, $1.5535/30, $1.5505/00

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0650, $1.0635/40, $1.0600
Bids   $1.0500, $1.0480, $1.0450, $1.0430, $1.0400

EUR/JPY
Offers   Y98.00, Y97.80, Y97.50, Y97.20/25
Bids   Y96.50, Y96.20, Y96.00, Y95.80, Y95.50

USD/JPY
Offers   Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.60/65
Bids   Y78.10, Y78.00, Y77.90, Y77.50

10:45

Most European stocks advanced

Most European stocks advanced

, as the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index extended a four-month high, after Greece and its creditors agreed on the need to strengthen policy efforts to support growth.
Greece and its international creditors agreed on the need to strengthen policy efforts to support the economy and comply with its bailout terms after more than a week of meetings.
Richemont gained 6.2 percent to 59.50 Swiss francs, the highest level March 16, after the maker of Cartier watches forecast a 20 to 40 percent jump in first-half profit. The company reported a 24 percent increase in sales for the first- four months of its fiscal year.
PostNL tumbled 6 percent to 3.06 euros, the lowest since June 28, after the postal company cut its full-year sales forecast and said it sees cash operating income at the lower half of the 110 million to 160 million-euro range. Second- quarter earnings also missed analyst estimates.

FTSE 100 5,797.42 +10.14 +0.18%

CAC 40 3,390.52 +16.33 +0.48%

DAX 6,904.19 +38.53 +0.56%

09:31

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.2300, $1.2400, $1.2500

USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.25, Y78.35, Y79.00, Y79.20

EUR/JPY Y95.50

GBP/USD $1.5600

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0520

09:15

Asia Pacific stocks close:

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for its highest close in a month, after better-than-forecast data for U.S. employment and the services industry eased investor concern that growth is slowing in the world’s largest economy.

Nikkei 225 8,726.29 +171.18 +2.00%

S&P/ASX 200 4,272.6 +51.12 +1.21%

Shanghai Composite 2,153.6 +20.80 +0.98%

Li & Fung Ltd., which gets 60 percent of its sales from the U.S., climbed 3.9 percent in Hong Kong.

Asahi Glass Co. jumped 7.3 percent in Tokyo after Nomura Holdings Inc. raised its rating to buy from neutral on its profit outlook.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest miner, increased 2.2 percent in Sydney after commodity prices advanced.

Sharp Corp., a consumer electronics maker that widened its loss forecast last week, sank 5.7 percent in Tokyo.

09:05

FTSE 100 5,786.05 -1.23 -0.02%, CAC 40 3,376.05 +1.86 +0.06%, DAX 6,886.55 +20.89 +0.30%

08:46

Asian session: The yen and dollar touched the lowest in more than three weeks against the euro

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) July -1.2% -0.8%

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index June 95.2 93.0 92.6

05:00 Japan Coincident Index June 95.8 93.9 93.8

The yen and dollar touched the lowest in more than three weeks against the euro as Asian shares extended a global rally on bets central banks are standing by to support growth, sapping demand for refuge assets. The yen held a decline from the end of last week against major peers amid speculation the Bank of Japan will take action to weaken the currency at a two-day policy meeting starting Aug. 8.
The Dollar Index slid to the lowest in a month before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks today. Bernanke is due to speak on economic measurement at a conference in Cambridge, Massachusetts today. The Labor Department said on Aug. 3 that U.S. payrolls increased by 163,000 in July, the most since February and exceeding the 100,000 gain estimated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent in June.
Demand for the euro was limited before data tomorrow that may show Germany’s factory orders and Italy’s industrial output fell. Orders fell 7 percent in June from a year earlier, the steepest drop since October 2009, according to economist estimates before the figure is released in Berlin.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose above $1.2400, but later declined.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell, approaching $1.5600.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell, retreating from Friday's high.

At 0930GMT, the German government gives a press conference in Berlin, although there is no major European economic data on the schedule for Monday. UK data gets things started with the latest Halifax House Price Index at 0700GMT, while UK new car registrations data is also due, at 0800GMT. US events start at 1330GMT, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks via recorded video to the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, taking place in Boston.

08:31

Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence, August -30.3 (forecast -30.7)

08:03

Forex: Friday’s review

The dollar fell against most major currencies after the release of unexpectedly positive U.S. data on employment. According to the data, the number of jobs outside agriculture in the U.S. in July increased by 163,000, while economists had expected growth to 95 000.

In addition, in July, the ISM index in the U.S. service sector grew more strongly than in the previous month, helped by a substantial increase in orders. The indicator rose to 52.6 versus 52.1 in June. Economists expected the index would remain unchanged, while the analysts' estimates ranged from 50.5 to 53. Business activity and new orders showed an increase, while the employment component fell for the first time in December 2011, reaching 49.3 versus 52.3 in June.

The euro rose against other major currencies, receiving support from lower yields on bonds of Spain and Italy. In addition, the single currency is growing on rumors that the EFSF is going to give the banks their sovereign bonds. Earlier, the euro grew up on rumors that the Spanish Government intends to hold an unscheduled press conference, during which the authorities have formally requested the support of EFSF. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year bonds dropped from Spain's level of 4.48% to 3.75%. We have published data on the PMI index in the euro area - the weak PMI data for France and Italy were offset by more favorable from those of Germany and the eurozone.

07:23

Stocks: Friday’s review

Asian stocks fell for a third day after the European Central Bank failed to deliver immediate action to stem the debt crisis and amid speculation China’s monetary authorities will be slow to ease policy. Sharp Corp. led technology shares lower after it forecast a wider loss.

Nikkei 225 8,555.11 -98.07 -1.13%

S&P/ASX 200 4,221.5 -48.04 -1.13%

Shanghai Composite 2,128.24 +17.06 +0.81%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. paced declines among banks after surging bond yields in Spain and Italy stoked concern Europe’s debt crisis may hamper the global financial system.

Sharp, Japan’s largest maker of liquid-crystal displays, plunged 28 percent after widening its full-year loss forecast and announcing job cuts.

ResMed Inc., the world’s second-biggest maker of machines to regulate breathing for people with sleep disorders, jumped 9.3 percent in Sydney after earnings beat analyst estimates.

European stocks rose for a ninth week as U.S. economic data surpassed estimates, outweighing comments by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that disappointed investors looking for more definitive steps to support growth.
A U.S. report showed nonfarm payrolls in the world’s largest economy climbed more than forecast in July. Employers added 163,000 workers last month, according to the Labor Department. That exceeded the 100,000 median estimate of economists.
Confidence among American consumers unexpectedly rose for the first time in five months, a report on July 31 showed. The Confidence Board’s index increased to 65.9 last month from 62.7 in June. Economists projected a reading of 61.5.
National benchmark indexes rose in 16 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 Index gained 2.9 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index advanced 2.8 percent, while Germany’s DAX Index jumped 2.6 percent.
Vestas jumped 11 percent. The world’s biggest wind-turbine maker allayed investor concern that it may breach its loan covenants, leading to a default scenario. The company said its banks agreed to let it draw on credit lines and defer a test of the covenants.
Air France rallied 11 percent. The company’s operating loss narrowed to 66 million euros ($82 million) from 145 million euros a year earlier, helped by the introduction of a 2 billion- euro savings plan, Air France said on July 30. That beat the 163 million-euro average estimate of analysts.

Strong data on the U.S. labor market have supported the U.S. stock indices, which peaked in May.
Published data were mixed: the number of new jobs in the nonagricultural sectors of the economy grew more than forecast (163 thousand was created jobs vs. 101 thousand), while the unemployment rate rose to 8.3%.
Overall, it was good data, but no more. Against this backdrop, the market reaction is somewhat excessive. Not so long ago, the weak economic data, including the labor market, added certainty to market participants that the Fed will make a decision about the next round of quantitative easing, and it was positive for the market. Now, when the Fed did nothing and the next meeting will take place only in September, strong data, it seems, began to be perceived as positive.
Support was also provided data on the index of business activity in the service of the ISM, which in July rose to 52.6 vs. 52.2.
In the composition of all components of the DOW index, except two, are in black. More than 4% added shares Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT, +4,03%) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, +4,05%). Branches in the context of all the sectors are in positive territory. Over the rest of the financial sector increased (2.7%).
Shares of major U.S. media company CBS rose by 6.1% due to the increased profits by 8.1% in 2nd quarter, which was above the average market expectations.
One of the largest investment banks in the world, Morgan Stanley won 5.8% of the intention to realize about half of its risky assets, and send the proceeds to repurchase its shares.