Forex-novosti i prognoze od 07-05-2012

European stocks rose the most in more than a week as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she will receive French president-elect Francois Hollande with “open arms” as they work together to tackle the debt crisis.

Hollande defeated French President Nicolas Sarkozy to become the first Socialist in 17 years to control Europe’s second-biggest economy. He pledged to push for less austerity and more growth in the region.

Greece’s political leaders struggled to find the support needed to form a coalition government after voters flocked to anti-bailout parties, calling into question the country’s ability to impose the measures needed to guarantee its future in the euro.

German factory orders rose more than forecast in March as demand from outside the euro area helped Europe’s largest economy weather the debt crisis. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, jumped 2.2 percent from February, when they gained a revised 0.6 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said.

National benchmark indexes rose in 12 of the 16 western European markets open today. Spain’s IBEX 35 jumped 2.7 percent and Italy’s FTSE MIB rallied 2.6 percent. Germany’s DAX added 0.1 percent and France’s CAC 40 increased 1.7 percent, while Greece’s ASE plunged 6.7 percent.

U.K. and Irish markets were closed for a holiday.

BNP Paribas and Societe Generale, the biggest French lenders, gained 4.2 percent to 30.21 euros and 4 percent 17.99 euros, respectively, erasing earlier losses. The spread between German 10-year government bond yields and French yields on similar-maturity debt narrowed.

UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo rose 5.6 percent to 2.85 euros and 3.9 percent to 1.09 euros, respectively, as UBS kept its positive view of the lenders among Italian banks.

Banco Santander SA, Spain’s biggest lender, rallied 4.7 percent to 4.90 euros. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA advanced 5.4 percent to 5.29 euros.

Lafarge SA, the world’s biggest cement maker, increased 4 percent to 30.50 euros. Analysts at Citigroup Inc., Helvea AG and Equita SIM SpA upgraded the shares.

The euro weakened to a more than three-month low after Francois Hollande was elected president of France and as Greek voters flocked to anti-bailout parties, stoking concern austerity efforts in Europe may be derailed. The 17-nation currency slid for a sixth day, its longest series of declines since September, dropping as much as 1 percent before paring losses. Hollande, who becomes the first Socialist in 17 years to control Europe’s second-biggest economy, pledged to push for less austerity and more growth in the region.

Hollande’s platform calls for policies German Chancellor Angela Merkel opposes, including increased spending and delayed deficit cuts. He used his campaign to call for an activist European Central Bank, defying Germany. Merkel telephoned Hollande to congratulate him and to invite him for talks in Berlin “as soon as possible,” according to a statement from her government.

Greek elections left the two biggest parties short of the clear majority to keep bailout efforts on track. With the nation dependent on rescue funds to stay in the euro, the next government will need to find cuts worth 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2013 and 2014.

U.S. stocks swung between gains and losses, following the biggest weekly decline in 2012, as investors weighed Francois Hollande’s election as France’s president and Greek voters flocking to anti-bailout parties.

French Socialist Hollande, who defeated Nicolas Sarkozy, pledged to push for less austerity. His victory may sharpen tensions with key allies with Hollande advocating a more aggressive European Central Bank role. In Greece, the poll cast doubt on whether the two main parties can put together a government strong enough to implement spending cuts.

Banks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained as Warren Buffett said the nation’s lenders have “liquidity coming out of their ears” and are in better shape than European rivals.

American International Group Inc. fell 4.3 percent as the U.S. Treasury Department sold $5 billion of shares.

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) rose 1.3 percent as the movie “Marvel’s The Avengers” earned a record $200.3 million in its opening weekend.

Oil fell to the lowest level this year as European elections stoked speculation that austerity efforts will be derailed and escalate the debt crisis.

Price fell as much as 3.2 percent after France elected Francois Hollande president and Greek voters flocked to anti- bailout parties. Hollande, who will become the first Socialist in 17 years to control Europe’s second-biggest economy, pledged to push for less austerity and more growth.

Hollande inherits an economy that is barely growing, with jobless claims at their highest level in 12 years. His platform calls for policies German Chancellor Angela Merkel opposes, including higher taxes, increased spending and delayed deficit reduction. Germany is Europe’s largest economy.

Hollande’s comments were echoed in Greece, where voters flocked to anti-bailout groups, leaving the two main parties, New Democracy and Pasok, a seat short of a majority if they govern together, an Interior Ministry projection showed.

Greece now faces a 50 percent to 75 percent likelihood of leaving the euro in the next year to 18 months, Citigroup Inc. economists Guillaume Menuet and Juergen Michels wrote in a report today. They’d previously estimated the risk of a euro exit at 50 percent.

Crude for June delivery slid to $95.34, the lowest intraday level since Dec. 20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent oil for June settlement declined $1.05, or 0.9 percent, to $112.13 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The price of gold down on Monday as election results in France and Greece have caused investor concerns about the implementation of existing programs, budget savings, and caused the fall of the euro and dollar growth.

According to the results of the second round of presidential elections held in France on May 6, the new president was elected the candidate of the Socialist Party, Francois Hollande, who assumed the position of election mitigation measures of the budget savings in the country.

Parliamentary elections in Greece ended in victory for parties opposed to European programs to save the country, putting into question the ability of Athens to the agreed reforms to the EU.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX fell today to $ 1632.2 an ounce and is currently trading at $ 1637.9 an ounce.

Resistance 3:1402 (May 3 high)

Resistance 2:1388 (area of May 4 high and МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1:1366 (session high)

Current price: 1365,45

Support 1:1354/2 (area of low of April)

Support 2:1342 (session low)

Support 3:1330 (38,2 % FIBO 1197-1420)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3170, $1.3200

USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.10, Y80.60 

EUR/JPY Y105.25, Y106.00

AUD/USD  $1.0240, $1.0250

EUR/GBP stg0.8085

U.S. stock futures fell after Francois Hollande’s election as France’s president and Greek voters flocking to anti-bailout parties spurred concern about Europe’s debt crisis.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  9,119.14 -261.11 -2.78%

Hang Seng 20,536.65 -549.35 -2.61%

Shanghai Composite 2,451.95 -0.07 0.00%

CAC  3,174.61 +12.64 +0.40%

DAX 6,529.81 -31.66 -0.48%

Crude oil $97.72 (-0.78%).

Gold $1638.70 (-0.40%).

Data:

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate April 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves April 237.5 235.6

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) April +0.6% +0.2% +0.1%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) April -1.0% -0.9% -1.0%

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence May -14.7 -15.0 -24.5

10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) March +0.3% +0.5% +2.2%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) March -6.1% -2.8% +1.3%

The euro still under pressure after Francois Hollande was elected president of France and as Greek voters flocked to anti-bailout parties, stoking concern austerity efforts in Europe may be derailed.

Hollande, who becomes the first Socialist in 17 years to control Europe’s second-biggest economy, pledged to push for less austerity and more growth in the region. The yen and the dollar strengthened versus most of their peers.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party had its worst election result in more than half a century in the state of Schleswig-Holstein. Voters in Greece and France challenged austerity as Europe’s sole prescription for the financial crisis, adding pressure on Merkel to broaden her focus from debt reduction to save the 17-nation bloc.

EUR/USD: during European session the pair compensated a part of losses suffered today, become stronger in $1,3030 area.

GBP/USD: the pair showed high in $1,6170 area then little decreased.

USD/JPY: during European session the pair was limited Y79,70-Y80,00.

At 1900GMT, the U.S. Federal Reserve Consumer Credit data hits screens Consumer credit usage is expected to rise $9.5 billion in March. Retail sales were reported up 0.8% in the month, both including and excluding motor vehicle sales. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Pres. Jeffrey Lacker speaks at 2200GMT to business and government executives and community leaders in Greensboro, N.C.

EUR/USD
Offres $1.3120, $1.3100, $1.3080/85, $1.3050
Bids $1.2955/50, $1.2925/20, $1.2900, $1.2860/50

USD/JPY
Offers Y81.20/25, Y81.00, Y80.75/80, Y80.60/70, Y80.50/55, Y80.25/30, Y80.00/10
Bids Y79.60/50, Y79.35/30, Y79.00, Y78.80

Resistance 3: Y80.55 (area of May 2-3 highs)
Resistance 2: Y80.40 (May 4 high, МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Y80.00 (session high)
Current price: Y79.91
Support 1: Y79.60/50 (May 1 low, high of November’2011)
Support 2: Y79.15 (61,8 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)
Support 3: Y78.40 (МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9380 (Jan 23 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9330 (high of March)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9270 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9213
Support 1: Chf0.9190/80 (area of May 4 high and resistance line from Mar 15 broken earlier)
Support 2: Chf0.9110 (area of May 3-4 lows, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3: Chf0.9050 (May 2 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6240 (May 1-2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6190 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1 : $1.6160/70 (area of session high and resistance line from May 1)

Current price: $1.6161

Support 1 : $1.6120/10 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300, session low)

Support 2 : $1.6080 (area of Apr 23 and 25 lows)

Support 3 : $1.6060 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300)

Resistance 3 : $1.3240 (May 2 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.3180 (May 3-4 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.3080 (May 4 low)
Current price: $1.3032
Support 1 : $1.3000 (psychological level, low of April and March)
Support 2 : $1.2950 (session low)
Support 3 : $1.2930 (Jan 25 low)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3170, $1.3200 

USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.10, Y80.60

EUR/JPY Y105.25, Y106.00

AUD/USD  $1.0240, $1.0250

EUR/GBP stg0.8085

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for its biggest decline in six months, after U.S. employers added fewer jobs than forecast and amid concern Europe’s debt crisis may worsen after Socialist Francois Hollande was elected president of France.

Nikkei 225 9,119.14 -261.11 -2.78%

Hang Seng 20,512.09 -573.91 -2.72%

S&P/ASX 200 4,301.3 -94.74 -2.16%

Shanghai Composite 2,451.95 -0.07 0.00%

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s No. 1 maker of mobile phones by sales, dropped 2.4 percent in Seoul.

Sony Corp. sank 4 percent, leading losses among Japanese exporters on concern a weaker euro will damp the repatriated value of sales from Europe.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company and Australia’s biggest oil producer, lost 3.7 percent as crude oil and copper futures fell.

00:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday -

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m March -7.8% +3.2% +7.4%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y March -15.2% -18.0% -15.0%

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) March +0.2% +0.3% +0.9%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y March +1.9% +1.8%

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) April +1.0% -3.1%

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence April 3 4

The euro fell to a three-month low after Socialist Francois Hollande was elected president of France and as Greek voters flocked to anti-bailout parties, stoking concern austerity efforts in Europe may be derailed. Hollande got about 52 percent of the vote in the French presidential election against about 48 percent for incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, according to estimates by four pollsters. In Greece, New Democracy won 20 percent of the total vote with more than half of the ballots from yesterday’s elections counted, according to the Interior Ministry website. Socialist Pasok, which partnered with New Democracy in securing a second rescue package for the country, trailed in third place with 42 seats. Official projections predicted the two would fall one short of the 151 seats needed to win a majority.

The 17-nation currency slid for a sixth day, its longest series of losses since September 2011, after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party had its worst election result in more than half a century in the state of Schleswig-Holstein. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union recorded its lowest share of the vote since 1950 in the northern state of Schleswig- Holstein. It placed first with 30.9 percent support, while coalition partner the Free Democratic Party slumped to 8.2 percent, according to ZDF television projections. That’s not enough for a rerun of their CDU-FDP coalition.

Australia’s currency was on track for its longest stretch of losses in nine months even after domestic reports showed gains in retail sales and building approvals. Australia’s retail sales climbed 0.9 percent in March after a revised 0.3 percent gain in the previous month, the country’s statistics office said in Sydney today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.2 percent advance. A separate report showed the number of permits granted to build or renovate houses and apartments rose 7.4 percent in March from February, when they dropped a revised 8.8 percent.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair showed a new monthly low, having fallen below $1.3000.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair continued Friday’s falling.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair showed a new monthly low.

A light calendar day on the Continent Monday, giving markets the chance to come to terms with the overnight election results from France, Greece and Germany. At 1000GMT, German manufacturing output numbers are released. There is no UK data, with markets closed for a national holiday. On the other side of the Atlantic, at 1230GMT, Canadian Building permits for March are released. At 1900GMT, the U.S. Federal Reserve Consumer Credit data hits screens Consumer credit usage is expected to rise $9.5 billion in March. Retail sales were reported up 0.8% in the month, both including and excluding motor vehicle sales. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Pres. Jeffrey Lacker speaks at 2200GMT to business and government executives and community leaders in Greensboro, N.C.

On Monday the euro weakened against the yen after a report showed Spain’s economy entered its second recession since 2009, adding to concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening.

The common currency extended its monthly decline versus the dollar as Spain’s government struggled to convince investors it can narrow its budget deficit in an economy that’s grappling with almost 25 percent unemployment.

On Tuesday the dollar rose from a four-week low versus the euro after a U.S. factory gauge unexpectedly advanced in April, easing concern the economic recovery is flagging and damping bets the Federal Reserve will introduce more stimulus. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of U.S. manufacturing rose to 54.8 in April from 53.4 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s report showed.

On Wednesday the euro weakened for a third day against the dollar, the longest losing streak in almost a month, after data showed European manufacturing shrank and unemployment rose in Germany, adding to concern the debt crisis will worsen. The euro dropped against most of its 16 major peers as London-based Markit Economics said its purchasing-manager index of euro-region manufacturing shrank for a ninth month, falling to a 34-month low of 45.9 in April from 47.7 in March. A reading below 50 shows contraction. The number of people out of work in Germany increased a seasonally adjusted 19,000 last month to 2.87 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a decline of 10,000. Yields on Germany’s two-, five-, 10-, and 30-year bonds dropped to record lows.

On Thursday the euro strengthened versus the yen after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers didn’t discuss cutting interest rates at their meeting this week. The 17-nation currency fluctuated against the dollar after Draghi said at a press conference in Barcelona there has been “significant progress” on the fiscal front. The ECB kept its main refinancing rate at a record low 1 percent, as predicted. While the ECB still expects a gradual economic recovery this year, “downside risks” prevail and the outlook has become “more uncertain,” Draghi said.

On Friday the yen gained versus all of its major counterparts as investors sought safety after U.S. payrolls increased less than forecast in April and before elections in Europe that may result in leadership changes. France and Greece hold elections this weekend, with French voters casting ballots in the final round of the country’s presidential race and Greeks set to decide on a new parliament. The euro fell for a fifth day versus the dollar, the longest stretch since September, as France and Greece prepared for elections May 6, spurring bets their commitment to austerity may flag.

Asian stocks fell for a second day, with a regional benchmark index heading for its biggest drop in two weeks, as Australia’s central bank cut its economic growth forecast and U.S. service industries rose less than forecast, sparking concern the global recovery may be faltering.

Nikkei 225 Closed

Hang Seng 21,068.17 -181.36 -0.85%

S&P/ASX 200 4,396.04 -32.92 -0.74%

Shanghai Composite 2,452.01 +11.93 +0.49%

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s No. 1 mobile-phone maker by sales, fell 2.9 percent in Seoul.

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-biggest mining company, lost 1.1 percent in Sydney as metal prices dropped.

Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. lost 1.4 percent after Hong Kong’s biggest developer announced former Chairman Walter Kwok’s arrest.

Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust slid 3.8 percent in Singapore after the industrial landlord sold shares at a discount.

Resistance 3: Y80.60 (May 2 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.40 (May 4 high)

Resistance 1: Y80.00 (session high)

The current price: Y79.77

Support 1: Y79.65 (session low, May 1 low)

Support 2: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.70 (Feb 15 high)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9335 (Mar 15 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9300 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9270 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9254

Support 1: Chf0.9215 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9175 (May 3 high)

Support 3: Chf0.9115 (May 3-4 high)

Resistance 3 : $1.6215 (May 3 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6200 (May 4 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6160 (May 2-3 high)

The current price: $1.6119

Support 1 : $1.6115 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.6080 (Apr 25 low)

Support 3 : $1.6035 (Apr 20 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3180 (May 3 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3080/95 (area of May 3-4 low)

Resistance 1 : $1.3030 (session high)

The current price: $1.2976

Support 1 : $1.2950 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2875 (Jan 23 low)

Support 3 : $1.2810 (Jan 17 high)

00:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday -

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m March -7.8% +3.2%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y March -15.2% -18.0%

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) March +0.2% +0.3%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y March +1.9%

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) April +1.0%

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence April 3

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate April 3.1% 3.1%

07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves April 237.5

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) April +0.6% +0.2%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) April -1.0% -0.9%

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence May -14.7 -15.0

10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) March +0.3% +0.5%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) March -6.1% -2.8%

12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) March +7.5% +2.3%

19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit March 8.7 9.5

21:30 Canada Gov Council Member Murray Speaks -

23:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance April -10% -10%