Forex-novosti i prognoze od 08-05-2012

European stocks dropped after the leader of Greece’s biggest political party failed to reach an agreement on a new government following the weekend’s elections.

The euro weakened for a seventh day as Antonis Samaras, the leader of the New Democracy party in Greece, said he failed to reach an agreement to form a government. Alexis Tsipras, the head of Syriza, the second-biggest party, will now attempt to form a coalition government of left-wing parties. Tsipras said he wouldn’t agree to join forces with New Democracy and Pasok, the two Greek parties that have supported austerity measures in return for international funds, while saying a left-wing coalition government would nationalize banks to spur growth, repeal recent labor reforms and immediately cancel the bailout accords, he said.

National benchmark indexes fell in every western-European market except Iceland and Portugal. France’s CAC 40 slid 2.8 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 1.8 percent and Germany’s DAX dropped 1.9 percent. Greece’s ASE Index plunged 3.6 percent to its lowest close since 1992.

National Bank of Greece, the country’s biggest lender, tumbled 8.4 percent to 1.42 euros, extending yesterday’s 8.3 percent slump. Alpha Bank, Greece’s second-largest lender, sank 14 percent to 72 euro cents and EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA dropped 10 percent to 46 cents.

Elsewhere, BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest lender, slipped 3.8 percent to 29.07 euros, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, Italy’s third-largest bank, slid 4.3 percent to 25.08 euro cents and Germany’s Commerzbank AG lost 3.4 percent to 1.53 euros.

In Madrid, Bankia tumbled 4.8 percent to 2.26 euros as Spain’s economy ministry today denied that the state has seized the third-largest lender in the country.

U.K. builders retreated as a house-price index fell in April, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said. The gauge dropped to minus 19 from minus 11 in March, according to RICS, which conducts a monthly poll of property surveyors across the country. A reading below zero means more surveyors saw price drops than gains last month.

Taylor Wimpey dropped 6.3 percent to 44.67 pence, Barratt Developments Plc lost 5.3 percent to 117.7 pence and Persimmon Plc declined 4.4 percent to 563.5 pence.

The euro weakened for a seventh day against the dollar as Greek politicians struggled to form a new government after elections on the weekend raised the prospect of the country withdrawing from the currency bloc. The 17-nation euro extended its longest run of declines against the greenback since September 2008 as German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected government stimulus as the way to spur economic growth, setting up a clash with French president-elect Francois Hollande. Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party placed second in Greek elections on May 6, said he would forge ahead with plans to form a coalition government of left-wing parties after he was handed the mandate by President Karolos Papoulias. Tsipras said he wouldn’t agree to join forces with New Democracy and Pasok, the two Greek parties that have supported austerity measures in return for international funds. He called on the leaders of both parties to withdraw their pledges to impose the terms in writing by tomorrow when he is to meet with both of them to discuss forming a government.

The pound dropped against the dollar as a report showed U.K. house prices fell in April.  The pound declined from within two U.S. cents of an eight- month high against the dollar after an industry report showed a gauge of house prices declined. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its index dropped to minus 19 from minus 11 in March. A reading below zero means more surveyors saw price declines than increases.

Oil fell for a fifth day as Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said prices are too high and the euro weakened against the dollar after election results in Greece and France.

Oil prices are “still a little bit high,” al-Naimi said in Tokyo today before board meetings of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., of which he is chairman. The euro fell for a seventh day as Greek politicians struggled to form a new government and on the possibility of a policy conflict between Germany and France, which elected Socialist Francois Hollande president.

Crude for June delivery fell $95.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price has fallen 9.7 percent in a five-day losing streak that is the longest since Feb. 2.

Brent oil for June settlement dropped $2.04, or 1.8 percent, to $111.12 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its lowest level in two months, as Greece’s struggle to form a new government intensified concern about a euro exit and deepening of the region’s debt crisis.

American equities joined a global slump as Greek stocks fell to the lowest in two decades. Greece’s leaders meet for a second day to try to form a government after New Democracy’s Antonis Samaras failed to forge an agreement following an election that raised questions about the euro membership.

The attempt to form a government now passes to Alexis Tsipras, the head of Syriza. Tsipras ran on a pledge to overturn Greece’s bailout, helping Syriza emerge as the country’s second- most voted party. He has said he will seek to form a coalition with other parties that favor reversing the 130 billion-euro bailout, the country’s second aid package, which came after Greece carried out the biggest debt restructuring in history.

All 10 groups in gauge retreated today as consumer discretionary and commodity shares had the biggest losses. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to the economy decreased 1.5 percent. Caterpillar (САТ), the largest maker of construction equipment, slid 2 percent to $95.21. Alcoa (АА), the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, fell 2 percent to $9.15. Bank of America (ВАС) sank 2.3 percent to $7.78.

Discovery Communications Inc. retreated 6.4 percent to $50.60. The owner of cable networks such as Animal Planet and TLC reported a 28 percent decline in first-quarter profit after a one-time gain last year on Oprah Winfrey’s network, OWN.

McDonald’s (MCD) lost 1.4 percent to $94.16. Sales at stores open at least 13 months rose 3.3 percent worldwide last month, trailing estimates, as sales growth slowed in the U.S. Analysts projected a gain of 4.3 percent, the average of 13 estimates compiled by Consensus Metrix. Sales in the U.S. advanced 3.3 percent. Analysts estimated an increase of 5.2 percent.

Euro spikes to $1.3020-25 and then stabilizes at lower levels, although still above the psychological $1.30 mark.

Gold prices fall on Tuesday amid fears worsening debt crisis in Europe, while the dollar strengthened.

The growth of the dollar and falling gold prices began on Monday after investors were disappointed the results of past elections May 6 in Greece and France.

Thus, according to many experts, the victory of socialist Francois Hollande's presidential election in France can mean a revision of the austerity measures in Europe.

In addition, still remains unclear the government of Greece. On the eve of the leader of the victorious center-right parliamentary elections Antonis Samaras could not agree with the other parties and form a government alone. In this connection, on Tuesday to form the government passed the leader of the leftist coalition SYRIZA Alexis Tsiprasu, which alerted investors to the statements that he was going to suspend payments on the debt of Greece.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today fell 2.54% to $ 1599.3 an ounce, its lowest intraday level since Jan. 4, 2012.

Resistance 3:1402 (May 3 high)

Resistance 2:1388 (area of May 4 high and МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1:1370 (session high, May 7 high)

Current price: 1351,75

Support 1:1342 (session low)

Support 2:1330 (38,2 % FIBO 1197-1420)

Support 3:1300 (area of 50,0 % FIBO 1197-1420, psychological level)

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.3000, $1.3080, $1.3150-55, $1.3200

USD/JPY Y80.20 

AUD/USD  $1.0000, $1.0200, $1.0225, $1.0350

GBP/USD $1.6200

U.S. stock futures fell as the struggle by Greece’s political leaders to form a government underscored growing concern about the region’s debt crisis.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  9,181.65 +62.51 +0.69%

Hang Seng 20,484.75 -51.90 -0.25%

Shanghai Composite 2,448.88 -3.06 -0.12%

FTSE  5,644.01 -11.05 -0.20%

CAC  3,166.68 -47.54 -1.48%

DAX 6,534.14 -35.34 -0.54%

Crude oil $96.89 (-1.07%).

Gold $1611.40 (-1.69%).

Data:

10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) March -1.3% +0.8% +2.8%

10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) March -1.0% -1.2% +1.6%

EUR/USD
Offres $1.3120, $1.3100, $1.3080/85, $1.3040/45
Bids $1.2990, $1.2980, $1.2955/50, $1.2925/20

USD/JPY
Offers Y80.75/80, Y80.60/70, Y80.50/55, Y80.35/40, Y80.20, Y80.05/10
Bids Y79.70, Y79.60, Y79.50, Y79.40/35

EUR/JPY
Offers Y105.45/50, Y104.95/00, Y104.25/30
Bids Y103.50, Y103.25/20, Y103.00, Y102.50

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0335/40, $1.0320/25, $1.0295/00, $1.0275/80, $1.0250/55, $1.0190/00
Bids $1.0100, $1.0050, $1.0035/30, $1.0000

Resistance 3: Y80.55 (area of May 2-3 highs)
Resistance 2: Y80.40 (May 4 high)
Resistance 1: Y80.10 (МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Y79.75
Support 1: Y79.60/50 (May 1 and 7 lows, high of November’2011)
Support 2: Y79.15 (61,8 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)
Support 3: Y78.40 (МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 3 : $1.6240 (May 1-2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6200 (area of session high, May 7 high and МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1 : $1.6150 (38,2 % FIBO of today's falling)

Current price: $1.6131

Support 1 : $1.6120/10 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300, May 7 low)

Support 2 : $1.6080 (area of Apr 23 and 25 lows)

Support 3 : $1.6060 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300)

Resistance 3 : $1.3180 (May 3-4 highs, МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2 : $1.3120 (МА (100) for D1)
Resistance 1 : $1.3070/80 (area of May 4 low, session high and May 7 high)
Current price: $1.3013
Support 1 : $1.3000 (session low, low of April and March)
Support 2 : $1.2950 (May 7 low)
Support 3 : $1.2930 (Jan 25 low)

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.3000, $1.3080, $1.3150-55, $1.3200 

USD/JPY Y80.20

AUD/USD  $1.0000, $1.0200, $1.0225, $1.0350

GBP/USD $1.6200

Asian stocks rose as Capcom Co. forecast higher profit and Mitsubishi Corp. posted better-than- estimated earnings, helping the regional benchmark index rebound after political change in Europe sparked its biggest loss in six months yesterday.

Nikkei 225 9,181.65 +62.51 +0.69%

Hang Seng 20,424.68 -111.97 -0.55%

S&P/ASX 200 4,314.3 +13.01 +0.30%

Shanghai Composite 2,448.88 -3.06 -0.12%

Capcom jumped 5.3 percent in Tokyo after the video-game developer said full-year net income will increase 46 percent.

Mitsubishi, Japan’s biggest trading house, gained 3.7 percent after reporting profit that topped estimates.

Iluka Resources Ltd. slumped 12 percent in Sydney after the world’s largest zircon producer cut its forecast for the mineral.

01:30 Australia Trade Balance March -0.48 -1.37 -1.59

The euro traded 0.6 percent from a three-month low as Greece’s political leaders meet for a second day in a bid to form a new government, after an election raised questions about the country’s membership of the euro bloc. New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras said he failed to forge agreement to form a Greek government after weekend elections. The attempt will pass to Alexis Tsipras, the head of Syriza, the second biggest party, which has vowed to cancel bailout terms for the nation. Tsipras will see President Karolos Papoulias today at 2 p.m. Athens time.

The 17-nation currency maintained a two-day decline against the yen after French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s preferred partner for enforcing debt reductions, was defeated by Socialist Francois Hollande.  

Demand for the yen was limited as Asian stocks climbed before data that may show German industrial production rebounded. German industrial production probably rose 0.8 percent in March from the previous month when it slid 1.3 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the data due today.

The Australian dollar weakened after the nation reported its biggest trade deficit in five years. Imports outpaced exports by A$1.587 billion ($1.61 billion) in March, from a revised A$754 million deficit the previous month, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for a deficit of A$1.3 billion.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair decreased.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair gain, however fell later.

Main core-European data is limited to the 1000GMT release of Germany industrial output data, while at the same time, ECB Governing Council member Patrick Honohan is due to participate in a panel discussion entitled "The Return of the Surprise in Central  Banking", in London. At 1230GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to give an address at the Signing of the T2S Framework Agreement between the Eurosystem and the Central Securities  Depositories, in Frankfurt. US data continues at 1255GMT with the Johnson Redbook weekly chain store sales data. At 1345GMT, Richmond Fed President  Jeffrey Lacker holds a roundtable discussion with Guilfod Technical Community College students, in Greensboro, N.C. Finally, at 1745GMT, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to a business audience at the "Growth DFW" event sponsored by the Dallas Convention & Visitors Bureau

and the Dallas Regional Chamber.

Yesterday the euro weakened to a more than three-month low after Francois Hollande was elected president of France and as Greek voters flocked to anti-bailout parties, stoking concern austerity efforts in Europe may be derailed. The 17-nation currency slid for a sixth day, its longest series of declines since September, dropping as much as 1 percent before paring losses. Hollande, who becomes the first Socialist in 17 years to control Europe’s second-biggest economy, pledged to push for less austerity and more growth in the region.

Hollande’s platform calls for policies German Chancellor Angela Merkel opposes, including increased spending and delayed deficit cuts. He used his campaign to call for an activist European Central Bank, defying Germany. Merkel telephoned Hollande to congratulate him and to invite him for talks in Berlin “as soon as possible,” according to a statement from her government.

Greek elections left the two biggest parties short of the clear majority to keep bailout efforts on track. With the nation dependent on rescue funds to stay in the euro, the next government will need to find cuts worth 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2013 and 2014.

Australia’s currency was on track for its longest stretch of losses in nine months even after domestic reports showed gains in retail sales and building approvals. Australia’s retail sales climbed 0.9 percent in March after a revised 0.3 percent gain in the previous month, the country’s statistics office said in Sydney. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.2 percent advance. A separate report showed the number of permits granted to build or renovate houses and apartments rose 7.4 percent in March from February, when they dropped a revised 8.8 percent.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair was restored, fixed above $1.3000.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair gain to Friday’s high.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair holds in range Y79.65-Y80.00.

Main core-European data is limited to the 1000GMT release of Germany industrial output data, while at the same time, ECB Governing Council member Patrick Honohan is due to participate in a panel discussion entitled "The Return of the Surprise in Central  Banking", in London. At 1230GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to give an address at the Signing of the T2S Framework Agreement between the Eurosystem and the Central Securities  Depositories, in Frankfurt. US data continues at 1255GMT with the Johnson Redbook weekly chain store sales data. At 1345GMT, Richmond Fed President  Jeffrey Lacker holds a roundtable discussion with Guilfod Technical Community College students, in Greensboro, N.C. Finally, at 1745GMT, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to a business audience at the "Growth DFW" event sponsored by the Dallas Convention & Visitors Bureau

and the Dallas Regional Chamber.

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for its biggest decline in six months, after U.S. employers added fewer jobs than forecast and amid concern Europe’s debt crisis may worsen after Socialist Francois Hollande was elected president of France.

Nikkei 225 9,119.14 -261.11 -2.78%

Hang Seng 20,512.09 -573.91 -2.72%

S&P/ASX 200 4,301.3 -94.74 -2.16%

Shanghai Composite 2,451.95 -0.07 0.00%

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s No. 1 maker of mobile phones by sales, dropped 2.4 percent in Seoul.

Sony Corp. sank 4 percent, leading losses among Japanese exporters on concern a weaker euro will damp the repatriated value of sales from Europe.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company and Australia’s biggest oil producer, lost 3.7 percent as crude oil and copper futures fell.

Resistance 3: Y80.60 (May 2 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.40 (May 4 high)

Resistance 1: Y80.10 (session high)

The current price: Y79.98

Support 1: Y79.65 (May 1-7 low)

Support 2: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.70 (Feb 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9300 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9270 (May 7 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9220 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9216

Support 1: Chf0.9195 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9175 (May 3 high)

Support 3: Chf0.9115 (May 3-4 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6245 (May 1 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6215 (May 3 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6200 (session high, May 4 high)

The current price: $1.6174

Support 1 : $1.6145 (low of the American session on May 7)

Support 2 : $1.6115 (May 7 low)

Support 3 : $1.6080 (Apr 25 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3240 (May 2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3180 (May 3 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.3070/80 (session high, May 4 low)

The current price: $1.3030

Support 1 : $1.3020 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2950 (May 7 low)

Support 3 : $1.2875 (Jan 23 low)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,639 -6 -0.38%

Oil 97.93 -0.56 -0.57%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,119.14 -261.11 -2.78%

Hang Seng 20,512.09 -573.91 -2.72%

S&P/ASX 200 4,301.3 -94.74 -2.16%

Shanghai Composite 2,451.95 -0.07 0.00%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3058 -0,19%

GBP/USD $1,6193 +0,28%

USD/CHF Chf0,9199 +0,21%

USD/JPY Y79,89 +0,06%

EUR/JPY Y104,31 -0,14%

GBP/JPY Y129,36 +0,34%

AUD/USD $1,0203 +0,24%

NZD/USD $0,7953 -0,01%

USD/CAD C$0,9928 -0,29%

01:30 Australia Trade Balance March -0.48 -1.37

05:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter I -19 -18

09:30 Australia Annual Budget Release -

10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) March -1.3% +0.8%

10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) March -1.0% -1.2%

12:15 Canada Housing Starts April 216 205

12:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

16:45 U.S. FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks -

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report May

21:00 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m April +1.9%

23:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y April +1.3% +0.6%

23:15 U.S. FOMC Member Laker Speaks -