Forex-novosti i prognoze od 09-05-2012

European stocks dropped for a second day, to the lowest level in almost four months, as investors awaited a resolution to the political impasse in Greece and as Spanish credit risk surged.

The stand-off since the inconclusive May 6 election has reignited concerns over Greece’s ability to comply with the terms of its two bailouts negotiated since May 2010. The country is again facing the risk of an exit from the euro.

Spanish 10-year government bonds extended a decline, pushing the yield on the securities above 6 percent for the first time since April 27. The yield climbed 20 basis points, or 0.17 percentage points, to 6.04 percent.

National benchmark indexes fell in 15 of the 18 western- European markets. France’s CAC 40 lost 0.2 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.4 percent, while Germany’s DAX added 0.5 percent. Spain’s IBEX 35 Index sank 2.8 percent, its lowest close since October, 2003.

The cost of insuring against a Spanish default surged to a record on concern a bailout of Bankia won’t fend of a banking crisis triggered by bad real-estate loans. Bankia tumbled 5.4 percent to 2.14 euros, the lowest since it listed its shares in July 2011, as JPMorgan Chase & Co. downgraded the Spanish lender to underweight, the equivalent of a sell recommendation.

Banco Santander SA, Spain’s largest lender, dropped 4.6 percent to 4.64 euros and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA retreated 4.7 percent to 5.01 euros.

ING paced advancing shares, climbing 1.8 percent to 5.09 euros. The biggest Dutch financial-services company reported earnings excluding one-time gains and losses of 705 million euros, surpassing the 632 million-euro estimate of analysts.

Carlsberg jumped 3.8 percent to 490 kroner as the world’s fourth-biggest brewer confirmed its full-year outlook. The company reported a 43 percent drop in first-quarter operating profit, excluding some items, to 574 million kroner ($100 million) as it sold less beer in Russia. That missed the average analyst projection for 845 million kroner.

The euro weakened for an eighth day against the dollar as Greek politicians struggled to form a new government, fueling concern the nation will leave Europe’s currency union. The 17-nation currency extended its run of losses to the longest since September 2008 as Spain’s 10-year bond yields climbed back above 6 percent. Euro area leaders from the European Central Bank’s Joerg Asmussen to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have begun to raise doubts that Greece can stay in the monetary union. Growth in German exports slowed to 0.9 percent in March from 1.5 percent in February, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today.

The pound fell for a second day against the dollar as a report showed U.K. retail sales fell the most in more than a year. Sterling slipped 0.2 percent to $1.6126 and rose 0.3 percent to 80.26 pence per euro before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decides tomorrow whether to add more stimulus to its existing 325 billion pounds ($485 billion) of bond purchases.

The yen strengthened against all of it 16 major counterparts, and the dollar advanced versus all but the yen, amid speculation the global economy is stalling, boosting demand for safer assets.

Canada’s dollar dropped to a three-month low as oil declined for a sixth day.

Oil fell as U.S. crude supplies rose to the highest level in almost 22 years and Greece’s struggle to form a government bolstered concern that Europe’s debt crisis will spread.

Futures dropped as much as 1.9 percent after the Energy Department said stockpiles climbed 3.65 million barrels to 379.5 million, the most since August 1990. Inventories were forecast to advance 2 million barrels, according to the median of analyst estimates. Equities slipped and the euro weakened after weekend elections in Greece.

Crude oil for June delivery fell to $95.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price has slipped 9.3 percent in six days.

Brent oil for June settlement dropped 26 cents to $112.47 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped for a sixth straight day, the longest losing streak since August, as Greece’s political impasse intensified concern about a worsening of the European sovereign-debt crisis.

Stocks slumped and Spanish default risk climbed to a record as Alexis Tsipras of Greece’s Syriza party squared off with political leaders before talks on forming a coalition, handing them an ultimatum to renounce support for the European Union-led rescue if they want to enter government.

Equities pared losses as German Chancellor Angela Merkel told a German newspaper she wants to keep Greece in the euro area.

Financial and industrial shares fell the most among 10 groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. General Electric Co. (GE) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) each slid 1.8 percent to pace losses among the biggest companies.

Dean Foods Co. rose 9.6 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $13.95. The biggest U.S. dairy processor boosted its full- year forecast, saying it now expects to earn at least $1.10 a share. Analysts, on average, estimated 95 cents.

Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. increased 6.4 percent to $3.64. The biopharmaceutical company was raised to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital Markets. The rating means that Arena is forecast to beat the market.

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) jumped 2.4 percent to $45.37, a record high. The world’s largest entertainment company said fiscal second-quarter earnings rose 21 percent, beating analysts’ estimates on rising theme-park and cable-television profits.

• 
  

  • It will take several years to reach full employment again

  • The level of full employment is likely to be 6%

  • U.S. GDP growth is likely to be around 2.5%

  • Inflation is likely to remain near the target level of 2% of the Federal Reserve

Gold continues its three-day decline against the backdrop of investor flight from risky assets and the strengthening of the dollar.

The tense situation in Greece, and increase the likelihood of exit from the eurozone countries have exacerbated the debt crisis in Europe, which led to the growth of yields on bonds of the euro area. Today, the yield on 10-year Spanish bonds again exceeded 6%, showing a maximum at 6.047%. Also added negative information about the possible nationalization of the Spanish bank Bankia Group.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX fell today by 0.84% to $ 1578.5 an ounce.

• Do not see the need for further easing of monetary policy, while economic shocks may push the Fed to this

• It is possible, minimize stimulation occurs in 6-9 months

• The state banks improves

• Low rates are aimed at stimulating consumer spending

Resistance 3:1402 (May 3 high)

Resistance 2:1388 (area of May 4 high)

Resistance 1:1370 (May 7-8 highs)

Current price: 1345,50

Support 1:1342 (session low, May 8 low)

Support 2:1330 (38,2 % FIBO 1197-1420)

Support 3:1300 (area of 50,0 % FIBO 1197-1420, psychological level)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3065, $1.3075, $1.3095, $1.3105

USD/JPY Y79.65, Y79.75-80, Y80.25, Y80.50 

AUD/USD $1.0200

GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6125, $1.6295-1.6300

USD/CHF Chf0.9250

U.S. stock futures fell as Greece’s political impasse intensified concern about a worsening of the European sovereign-debt crisis.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  9,045.06 -136.59 -1.49%

Hang Seng 20,330.64 -154.11 -0.75%

Shanghai Composite 2,408.59 -40.30 -1.65%

FTSE  5,478.08 -76.47 -1.38%

CAC  3,080.66 -44.14 -1.41%

DAX 6,387.54 -57.20 -0.89%

Crude oil $95.78 (-1.27%)

Gold $1586.40 (-1.13%)

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3120, $1.3100, $1.3080/85, $1.3040/45, $1.3000/20

Bids $1.2925/20, $1.2900, $1.2860/50

Data:

06:00 Germany Trade Balance March 13.6 13.4 13.7

06:00 Germany Current Account March 11.1 18.0 19.8

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln March -6.4 -5.8 -5.7

The euro set new 3 month low against the dollar as Greek politicians struggled to form a new government, fueling concern the nation will leave Europe’s currency union.

The euro fell as Spain’s 10-year bond yields climbed back above 6 percent.

Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party placed second in the Greek elections on May 6, said he would forge ahead with plans to form a coalition government of left-wing parties after he was handed the mandate by President Karolos Papoulias. Syriza is opposed to Greece’s European Union-led financial bailout.

Antonis Samaras of New Democracy and Evangelos Venizelos, of Pasok, rejected the ultimatum from Tsipras to send a letter to the European Union revoking their written pledges to implement austerity measures by the time he meets them today. Another election may be held in June if politicians fail to form a governing coalition.

EUR/USD: during the most part of the european session the pair was limited $1,2960-$ 1,3000. Later the pair decreased below $1,2950.

GBP/USD: the pair fell below $1,6100.

USD/JPY: the pair overcome support in Y79,60 area then decreased in Y79,40 area.

US data start at 1400GMT with wholesale inventories data and then at 1430GMT with the weekly EIA crude oil stocks data. At 1600GMT, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks at the Bank's conference on "Reinventing Older Communities." The US also sells new 10-year notes on Wednesday.

Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)
Resistance 3: Y80.55 (area of May 2-3 highs, resistance line from Mar 23)
Resistance 1: Y80.10 (May 8 high, МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Y79.62
Support 1: Y79.60/50 (May 1 and 7 lows, high of November’2011)
Support 2: Y79.15 (61,8 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)
Support 3: Y78.40 (МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9380 (Jan 23 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9330 (high of March)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9270 (May 7 high)
Current price: Chf0.9257
Support 1: Chf0.9240 (area of session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9190/80 (area of May 4 high, May 7-8 lows and resistance line from Mar 15 broken earlier)
Support 3: Chf0.9110 (area of May 3-4 lows, МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3 : $1.6240 (May 1-2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6200 (area of May 7-8 high and МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1 : $1.6160 (session high)

Current price: $1.6117

Support 1 : $1.6080 (area of Apr 23 and 25 lows)

Support 2 : $1.6060 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300)

Support 3 : $1.6000 (61,8 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300, Apr 19 low, psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.3120/30 (area of MA(100) for D1 and МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2 : $1.3070/80 (area of May 4 low, May 7-8 highs)
Resistance 1 : $1.3000 (session high)
Current price: $1.2976
Support 1 : $1.2950 (May 7 low)
Support 2 : $1.2930 (Jan 25 low)
Support 3 : $1.2870 (Jan 23 low)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3065, $1.3075, $1.3095, $1.3105

USD/JPY Y79.65, Y79.75-80, Y80.25, Y80.50 

AUD/USD $1.0200

GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6125, $1.6295-1.6300

USD/CHF Chf0.9250

Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index heading for its lowest close in more than three months, as political tension in Greece heightened concern Europe’s debt crisis may worsen, weakening the outlook for exporters in Asia.

Nikkei 225 9,045.06 -136.59 -1.49%

Hang Seng 20,321.64 -163.11 -0.80%

S&P/ASX 200 4,275.1 -39.25 -0.91%

Shanghai Composite 2,408.59 -40.30 -1.65%

Mitsubishi Motors Corp., an automaker that gets 27 percent of its sales from Europe, dropped 2.3 percent in Tokyo.

Qantas Airways Ltd., Australia’s largest carrier, slid 2.3 percent in Sydney after the government boosted imposts on airfares and scrapped a planned corporate tax cut to end four years of budget deficits.

Cosco Corp. Singapore Ltd. fell 3.5 percent after the shipbuilding unit of China’s biggest shipping company posted first-quarter earnings that missed analysts’ estimates.

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index March 96.3 97.0 96.6

05:00 Japan Coincident Index March 95.0 96.2 96.5

The euro fell, extending its longest losing streak in 3 1/2 years, as Greek politicians struggle to form a new government, raising concern that the nation may leave the currency bloc. The 17-nation euro traded 0.2 percent from an almost three- month low versus the yen before Alexis Tsipras of Greece’s Syriza party is due to meet today with leaders of New Democracy and Pasok, the two parties that supported austerity measures. Tsipras, whose Syriza party placed second in Greek elections on May 6, said he would forge ahead with plans to form a coalition government of left-wing parties after he was handed the mandate by President Karolos Papoulias.

Australia’s dollar fell after Prime Minister Julia Gillard said returning a budget surplus gives the central bank “maximum room” to move on interest rates.

The greenback and yen gained against most of their major peers today as concern that a recovery in the global economy is losing momentum bolstered demand for safer assets. Exports from Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, probably decreased 0.5 percent in March from the previous month, when they rose 1.5 percent, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey before the statistics office releases the figures today. U.S. initial jobless claims may have risen by 4,000 to 369,000 in the week ended May 5 from the prior period, another poll showed ahead of tomorrow’s data.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair decreased.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to yesterday's low.

European data for Wednesday starts at 0600GMT with Germany trade data, while France foreign trade data is due at 0645GMT. US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA mortgage applications data. At 1115GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa give a joint press conference after their meeting in Berlin. US data continues at 1400GMT with wholesale inventories data and then at 1430GMT with the weekly EIA crude oil stocks data. At 1600GMT, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks at the Bank's conference on "Reinventing Older Communities." The US also sells new 10-year notes on Wednesday.

Yesterday the euro weakened for a seventh day against the dollar as Greek politicians struggled to form a new government after elections on the weekend raised the prospect of the country withdrawing from the currency bloc. The 17-nation euro extended its longest run of declines against the greenback since September 2008 as German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected government stimulus as the way to spur economic growth, setting up a clash with French president-elect Francois Hollande. Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party placed second in Greek elections on May 6, said he would forge ahead with plans to form a coalition government of left-wing parties after he was handed the mandate by President Karolos Papoulias. Tsipras said he wouldn’t agree to join forces with New Democracy and Pasok, the two Greek parties that have supported austerity measures in return for international funds. He called on the leaders of both parties to withdraw their pledges to impose the terms in writing by when he is to meet with both of them to discuss forming a government.

The pound dropped against the dollar as a report showed U.K. house prices fell in April.  The pound declined from within two U.S. cents of an eight- month high against the dollar after an industry report showed a gauge of house prices declined. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its index dropped to minus 19 from minus 11 in March. A reading below zero means more surveyors saw price declines than increases.

Asian stocks rose as Capcom Co. forecast higher profit and Mitsubishi Corp. posted better-than- estimated earnings, helping the regional benchmark index rebound after political change in Europe sparked its biggest loss in six months yesterday.

Nikkei 225 9,181.65 +62.51 +0.69%

Hang Seng 20,424.68 -111.97 -0.55%

S&P/ASX 200 4,314.3 +13.01 +0.30%

Shanghai Composite 2,448.88 -3.06 -0.12%

Capcom jumped 5.3 percent in Tokyo after the video-game developer said full-year net income will increase 46 percent.

Mitsubishi, Japan’s biggest trading house, gained 3.7 percent after reporting profit that topped estimates.

Iluka Resources Ltd. slumped 12 percent in Sydney after the world’s largest zircon producer cut its forecast for the mineral.

Resistance 3: Y80.40 (May 4 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.10 (May 8 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.95 (session high)

The current price: Y79.77

Support 1: Y79.65 (May 1-7 low)

Support 2: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.70 (Feb 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9335 (Mar 15 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9300 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9270 (May 7 high)

The current price: Chf0.9256

Support 1: Chf0.9235 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9195 (May 7-8 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9175 (May 3 high)

Resistance 3 : $1.6215 (May 3 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6200 (May 4 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6170 (high of the American session on May 8)

The current price: $1.6138

Support 1 : $1.6125 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.6115 (May 7 low)

Support 3 : $1.6080 (Apr 25 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3180 (May 3 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3070/80 (May 4 low)

Resistance 1 : $1.3005 (session high)

The current price: $1.2972

Support 1 : $1.2950 (May 7 low)

Support 2 : $1.2875 (Jan 23 low)

Support 3 : $1.2810 (Jan low)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,606 -34 -2.05%

Oil 97.36 -0.58 -0.59%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,181.65 +62.51 +0.69%

Hang Seng 20,424.68 -111.97 -0.55%

S&P/ASX 200 4,314.3 +13.01 +0.30%

Shanghai Composite 2,448.88 -3.06 -0.12%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2998 -0,46%

GBP/USD $1,6151 -0,26%

USD/CHF Chf0,9237 +0,41%

USD/JPY Y79,88 -0,01%

EUR/JPY Y103,87 -0,42%

GBP/JPY Y129,01 -0,27%

AUD/USD $1,0109 -0,93%

NZD/USD $0,7875 -0,99%

USD/CAD C$0,9989 +0,61%

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index March 96.3 97.0

05:00 Japan Coincident Index March 95.0 96.2

06:00 Germany Trade Balance March 13.6 13.4

06:00 Germany Current Account March 11.1 18.0

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln March -6.4 -5.8

13:45 U.S. FOMC Member Laker Speaks -

14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories March +0.9% +0.6%

14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -

14:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change - +2.8

14:45 U.S. FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks -

16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks -

23:50 Japan Current Account Total, bln March 854.1 650.0