Forex-novosti i prognoze od 12-04-2012

European stocks climbed the most in more than a week, led by a rally in mining companies, after the Federal Reserve signaled U.S. interest rates will remain low to support economic growth.

Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen endorsed the central bank’s view that borrowing costs are likely to stay low through 2014 as the central bank misses its goal for full employment and inflation remains in check.

National benchmark indexes advanced in 15 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rallied 1.3 percent, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 (CAC) increased 1 percent. Spain’s IBEX 35 slipped 0.8 percent.

Rio Tinto, the world’s third-largest mining company, climbed 4.5 percent to 3,487 pence. BHP, the biggest, gained 2.8 percent to 1,906.5 pence and Xstrata Plc increased 2.5 percent to 1,105.5 pence.

China, the world’s largest consumer of copper, will publish its first-quarter GDP data tomorrow. The report is forecast to show the economy expanded 8.4 percent from a year earlier, slowing from the fourth quarter’s 8.9 percent increase, according to a survey of economists.

Hays rallied 8.9 percent to 88.5 pence after the U.K. recruitment company forecast full-year operating profit will “be towards the top of the current range of market estimates.”

Gerresheimer AG climbed 10 percent to 35.35 euros, the largest gain in three years, as the German maker of glass and plastic products for the health-care industry raised its forecast for the year.

Nokia Oyj dropped 7.2 percent to 3.04 euros, extending yesterday’s 14 percent selloff, as brokers reduced their recommendations on the shares. Societe Generale SA downgraded the biggest maker of mobile handsets by volume to hold from buy, while Morgan Stanley trimmed its price estimate by 32 percent to 2.60 euros after the company cut its profit forecasts yesterday.

The dollar fell versus most major counterparts as data showed the most Americans since January filed for jobless benefits last week, supporting the argument that monetary policy should stay stimulative to spur growth.

The euro strengthened versus the dollar as Italy’s 10-year bonds rose for a second day, pushing yields down from an almost two-month high of 5.73 percent reached yesterday. The nation sold 4.88 euros ($6.4 billion) of securities, close to its 5 billion-euro maximum target for the sale.

The yen dropped versus major peers as Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said policy makers will “pursue powerful easing.” Defeating deflation and achieving sustained growth are important tasks for the central bank, Shirakawa said today in Tokyo.

The pound fell as a result of published data on the trade balance. Sharp fall in exports to countries outside the EU in February, partly because of falling car exports in January increased the trade deficit. Merchandise trade deficit widened to 8.772 billion pounds in February to 7.883 billion pounds in January, far more than analysts had expected.

Offers $1.3220 area, more at $1.3240/50 with stops above.

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a second day, amid policymakers’ indications that interest rates will remain low.

This news positive impact on the cost of shares of the company, which increased significantly in the course of trading. Published in the course of trading macroeconomic statistics few influenced the mood of market participants - number of applications for unemployment benefits in the week to 7 April increased by 13 thousand up to 380 thousand. showing the maximum value from 28 January. According to the forecasts of economists, the indicator is expected at the level of 355 thousand.

Equities rose after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen and Fed Bank of New York President William C. Dudley endorsed the central bank’s view that borrowing costs are likely to stay low through 2014. U.S. central bankers next meet on April 24-25 to debate policy after a report last week showed job growth slowed to the weakest pace in five months.

Dow 12,947 .03 +141.64 +1.11% the Nasdaq 3,055 .10 +38.64 +1.28% of the S&P 500 1,386 .12 +17.41 +1.27%

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to economic growth added 2.2 percent. The Dow Jones Transportation Average, considered a proxy for the economy, gained 2.2 percent. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) advanced 3.4 percent to $105.21. Alcoa Inc. (АА) rose 2.9 percent to $10.19.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) rallied 6 percent to $24.81. The company accounted for 17.2 percent of worldwide PC shipments, Stamford, Connecticut-based Gartner said yesterday. Total global PC shipments climbed 1.9 percent to 89 million units, after predictions of a 1.2 percent drop, according to Gartner. Another research firm, IDC, also reported a surprise increase for the quarter.

Google, which is scheduled to report first-quarter results after the market close, added 1.3 percent to $644.45. On average estimate earnings of $9.64, a 19 percent growth from the same period a year earlier.

Gold prices rose sharply against the backdrop of a weakening dollar after the data on unemployment in the United States.

The number of Americans who first filled the form to receive unemployment benefitsrose last week, becoming a witness a slowdown in the employment market recovery.The primary application for unemployment benefits last week of April 7, increased by 13 thousand to 380 thousand, reaching maximum values ​​from 28 January, as reported today, the Ministry of Labor in Washington. Economists had expected the figure will be355 thousand

In addition, experts in the near future, expect growth in demand for physical metal,including after the jewelers in India completed the strike, which lasted three weeks.

At the same time, investments in gold-backed ETF-funds reached a record high of almost 70.3 million ounces.

May futures on the COMEX for gold today rose to $ 1675.0 an ounce.

Oil climbed for a second day as U.S. stocks increased and the dollar weakened on speculation that central banks will stimulate economic growth with supportive monetary policies.

Futures gained as much as 1.3 percent after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen endorsed the view that borrowing costs are likely to stay low through 2014 in remarks after U.S. markets closed yesterday.

Today came the weak data on the number of requests for unemployment, which last week rose to the level of 3-month high (380K). Together with the data on applications for unemployment benefits out statistics on the trade balance, which recorded an unexpected reduction in the deficit by more than 12% by the end of February.

Crude for May delivery rose to $104.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 5.1 percent this year.

Brent oil for May settlement gained 34 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $120.52 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Resistance 3:1420 (4 years high)

Resistance 2:1397/00 (area of Apr 5 high)

Resistance 1:1382 (Apr 9 high)

Current price: 1373,25

Support 1:1362 (session low)

Support 2:1352 (Apr 10 low, support line from Mar 6)

Support 3:1338 (low of March)

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3105, $1.3120, $1.3150, $1.3170, $1.3175

USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.45, Y81.50, Y82.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8320

USD/CHF  Chf0.9200, Chf0.9095

AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0300

GBP/USD $1.5905

U.S. stock futures trimmed gains after government data showed that initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased last week.

Equity futures trimmed gains as jobless claims increased 13,000 in the week ended April 7 to 380,000, the highest since Jan. 28. The median forecast called for 355,000 claims.

Nikkei  9,524.79 +66.05 +0.70%

Hang Seng 20,327.32 +186.65 +0.93%

Shanghai Composite 2,350.86 +41.94 +1.82%

FTSE  5,620.18 -14.56 -0.26%

CAC  3,222.16 -15.53 -0.48%

DAX 6,667.43 -7.30 -0.11%

Crude oil: $102.80 (+0.10%).

Gold: $1655.70 (-0,28%).

EUR/USD
Offers $1.3240/50, $1.3220, $1.3195/200, $1.3180, $1.3165
Bids $1.3095/90, $1.3080, $1.3060/50

GBP/USD
Offers $1.6090/100, $1.6070/80, $1.6065, $1.6050, $1.6000/10, $1.5975/85
Bids $1.5890/80, $1.5855/50

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0490/00, $1.0460/70, $1.0445/50, $1.0420
Bids $1.0350/40, $1.0305/00, $1.0255/45, $1.0225, $1.0200

EUR/JPY
Offers Y107.45/50, Y107.15/20, Y106.95/00, Y106.75/80, Y106.60/70
Bids Y106.00, Y105.50/40, Y104.75/70, Y104.50

USD/JPY
Offers Y82.00, Y81.85/90, Y81.60/65, Y81.45/50
Bids Y80.50, Y80.30/25, Y80.10/00, Y79.80/75

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8320/25, stg0.8300, stg0.8275/80
Bids stg0.8225/20, stg0.8200, stg0.8180/75

Resistance 3: Y82.55 (Apr 6 high)
Resistance 2: Y81.90 (Apr 10 high, МА (200) for Н1, border of the down channel from Apr 2)
Resistance 1: Y81.15/20 (session high, Apr 9 low)
Current price: Y80.96
Support 1: Y80.60 (Apr 11 low, low of March)
Support 1: Y80.20 (Feb 29 low, border of the down channel from Apr 2)
Support 3: Y80.00 (Feb 28 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9250 (Mar 16 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9210/20 (area of Apr 5, 9-10 lows)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9170 (resistance line from Apr 10)
Current price: Chf0.9155
Support 1: Chf0.9140/30 (МА (200) for Н1, Apr 11 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9110 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9000-Chf0,9220)
Support 3: Chf0.9090 (61,8 %% FIBO Chf0,9000-Chf0,9220)

Resistance 3 : $1.6130 (November’2011 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.6060 (Apr 2 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5960 (61,8 % FIBO $1,6060-$ 1,5800, session high)
Current price: $1.5958
Support 1 : $1.5940 (earlier resistance, Apr 11 high)
Support 2 : $1.5900 (session low, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.5850 (Apr 11 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3250 (61,8 % FIBO $1,3390-$ 1,3030)
Resistance 2 : $1.3210/20 (area МА (200) for Н4, 50,0 % FIBO $1,3390-$ 1,3030)
Resistance 1 : $1.3150/60 (area of session high and Apr 10-11 highs, area МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: $1.3140
Support 1 : $1.3110 (support line from Apr 10)
Support 2 : $1.3080 (support line from Apr 9)
Support 3 : $1.3030 (Apr 5 and 9 lows)

Комментарии: сообщается о стопах на $1,3160, поглощение которых может дать импульс для достижения $1,3210/20.

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3105, $1.3120, $1.3150, $1.3170, $1.3175

USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.45, Y81.50, Y82.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8320

USD/CHF  Chf0.9200, Chf0.9095

AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0300

GBP/USD $1.5905

Most Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index climbing from its lowest level in more than two months, as materials producers and traders increased on higher commodity prices and Citigroup Inc. recommended buying global industrial shares.

Nikkei 225 9,524.79 +66.05 +0.70%

Hang Seng 20,281.37 +140.70 +0.70%

S&P/ASX 200 4,280.64 +34.52 +0.81%

Shanghai Composite 2,350.86 +41.94 +1.82%

Alumina Ltd., partner in the world’s biggest producer of the material used to make alumina, added 1.1 percent in Sydney after Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported an unexpected first-quarter profit. Fanuc Corp., a maker of production automation systems, advanced 1.6 percent after Citigroup maintained a buy rating on the Japanese company. Australian banks increased after the country’s payrolls rose almost seven times as much as economists estimated.

• Survey indicators for economic growth have broadly stabilised at low levels in the early months of 2012, and  a moderate recovery in activity is expected in the course of the year.   
• The economic outlook remains subject to downside risks.  

01:30 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation April +2.7% +3.3%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate March 5.2% 5.3% 5.2%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed March -15.4 6.7 44.0

The yen extended declines to a second day against all of its 16 major counterparts after Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he will continue pursuing monetary easing. Shirakawa said today that defeating deflation and achieving sustained growth are extremely important tasks for the Bank of Japan. The BOJ unexpectedly expanded bond purchases by 10 trillion yen ($124 billion) on Feb. 14 and set a 1 percent inflation goal.

The dollar weakened against the majority of its peers after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen endorsed the central bank’s “highly accommodative” policy. Further U.S. easing “could be warranted if the recovery proceeds at a slower-than-expected pace,” Yellen said yesterday in a speech in New York. “Over the next several years, I anticipate that we will fall far short in achieving our maximum employment objective, and I expect inflation to remain at or below” the Fed’s 2 percent target, Yellen said.

Australia’s currency, known as the Aussie, strengthened against all of its 16 major peers. The number of people employed rose by 44,000 in Australia last month, the statistics bureau said today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated an increase of 6,500.

The euro was 0.2 percent from a three- month low against the pound before Italy sells bonds today. Italy will sell bonds today maturing in 2015, 2020 and 2023. The nation’s benchmark 10-year yield touched a two-month high of 5.73 percent yesterday before falling 15 basis points from the previous day. Spain will offer bonds on April 19.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain come nearer to yesterday's high.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain come nearer to yesterday's high.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair holds in range Y80.80-Y81.05.

European data starts early on Thursday, with the 0530GMT release of HICP data for France. European data continues at 0645GMT with

France current account data. Also at 0800GMT, the IEA monthly oil market report is due along with the latest ECB monthly bulletin for

March. UK data at 0830GMT sees Trade data along with BoE Quoted Rates and also Vehicle Licensing Statistics. Fed speakers for Thursday start at 1115GMT, when New York Fed  President William Dudley will speak to the Center for Economic Development on regional and national economic conditions. US data starts at 1230GMT with the Producer Price Index for March as well as the weekly initial claims for jobless benefits and monthly international trade data.

Yesterday the euro strengthened from a seven- week low against the yen as Spain’s bonds climbed after a board member of the European Central Bank indicated it may buy the nation’s debt to reduce borrowing costs. Europe’s shared currency gained versus the dollar after Italy sold 11 billion euros ($14.4 billion) of bills, meeting the target for the auction. The yield on Spain’s 10-year bond fell from the highest since Dec. 12. The rate has jumped almost 1 percentage point since March 2, when Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said the country would miss its 2012 deficit goal approved by the European Union. Italian 10-year yields fell 15 basis points, or 0.158 percentage point, to 5.54 percent after touching 5.73 percent, the highest level since Feb. 16.

The yen weakened against all but one of its 16 most-traded peers amid speculation the Bank of Japan will add to monetary easing later this month.

Britain’s pound strengthened after a report showed U.K. retail sales rose in March. It advanced 0.3 percent to $1.5903, and climbed as much as 0.5 percent, the most since March 30. Retail sales at U.K. stores open at least 12 months, measured by value, gained 1.3 percent from a year earlier, after sliding 0.3 percent in February, the London-based British Retail Consortium said.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair gain, traded above $1.3100.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair gain on a floor of a figure, showed a new week’s high.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair restored after Tuesday’s falling.

European data starts early on Thursday, with the 0530GMT release of HICP data for France. European data continues at 0645GMT with

France current account data. Also at 0800GMT, the IEA monthly oil market report is due along with the latest ECB monthly bulletin for

March. UK data at 0830GMT sees Trade data along with BoE Quoted Rates and also Vehicle Licensing Statistics. Fed speakers for Thursday start at 1115GMT, when New York Fed  President William Dudley will speak to the Center for Economic Development on regional and national economic conditions. US data starts at 1230GMT with the Producer Price Index for March as well as the weekly initial claims for jobless benefits and monthly international trade data.

Asian stocks slipped, with the benchmark index headed for its longest losing streak since August, as Spanish bond yields surged closer to levels that prompted other European countries to seek bailouts.

Nikkei 225 9,458.74 -79.28 -0.83%

Hang Seng 20,121.71 -234.53 -1.15%

S&P/ASX 200 4,246.13 -46.14 -1.07%

Shanghai Composite 2,308.92 +3.06 +0.13%

Esprit Holdings Ltd., a clothier that depends on Europe for about 80 percent of sales, fell 3.1 percent in Hong Kong.

China Shipping Development Co. slumped 8.6 percent after the commodities carrier said it may post a first-quarter loss on lower cargo rates.

Sony Corp. and Sharp Corp., Japan’s biggest makers of liquid-crystal-display televisions, dropped more than 3 percent after posting record losses amid declining TV sales and a stronger yen.

European stocks gained, rebounding from a two-month low, as banks and automakers advanced and Spain’s prime minister said the country wouldn’t need a bailout.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Spain faces a “huge” task generating jobs and growth as it looks to rein in its budget deficit. Addressing lawmakers of his People’s Party in Madrid today, he also said he wants to make it “as clear as day” that Spain won’t need a bailout.

Spain’s 10-year borrowing costs have jumped more than 1 percentage point since March 2, when Rajoy announced that the country will miss its 2012 budget-deficit goal approved by the European Union. European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure triggered speculation that the bank will revive its bond purchase program to lower Spain’s borrowing costs.

FTSE 100 5,634.74 +39.19 +0.70%, CAC 40 3,237.69 +20.09 +0.62%, DAX 6,674.73 +68.30 +1.03%

Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank, added 2.3 percent to 34.48 euros. Barclays Plc gained 2.8 percent to 212.1 pence. Italian banks gained, with UniCredit, the country’s biggest bank, adding 5.5 percent to 3.21 euros after falling 8.1 percent yesterday. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA also rose 5.5 percent to 1.20 euros. Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl gained 5.9 percent to 34.8 euro cents.

Banco Santander SA, Spain’s largest bank, added 2 percent to 5.30 euros, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA rose 3.8 percent to 5.60 euros. BBVA was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.

Preferred shares of Volkswagen added 3 percent to 128.80 euros, after four days of losses. Europe’s largest carmaker said first-quarter auto sales rose 10.5 percent to 1.36 million units. Daimler AG added 1.2 percent to 41.31 euros. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW), the world’s largest maker of luxury vehicles, gained 2.5 percent to 66.71 euros.

Norsk Hydro, a European aluminum producer, advanced 2.2 percent to 29.95 kroner after Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported an unexpected first-quarter profit after orders rose and it closed higher-cost smelting capacity.

Givaudan, the Swiss maker of flavors and fragrances, rose 3.7 percent to 894.50 francs. The company reported improved first-quarter sales as it continued to pass on the higher cost of raw materials including vanilla and citrus oils with increased pricing.

Nokia tumbled 14 percent to 3.27 euros, its lowest level since 1997, after the company cut its profit forecast for its handset division. The first-quarter operating margin for the devices and services business was probably minus 3 percent based on the non-IFRS accounting standard, Espoo, Finland-based Nokia said in a statement today.

Resistance 3: Y82.55 (Apr 6 high)

Resistance 2: Y81.85 (Apr 10 high)

Resistance 1: Y81.10 (Apr 11 high)

The current price: Y80.86

Support 1: Y80.55 (Apr 11 low)

Support 2: Y80.00 (Feb 28 low)

Support 3: Y79.35 (Feb 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9255 (Mar 16 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9220 (Apr 5 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9185 (high of the American session on Apr 11)

The current price: Chf0.9161

Support 1: Chf0.9130 (Apr 11 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9095 (Apr 4 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9070 (Apr 2 high)

Resistance 3 : $1.6045 (Apr 3 low)

Resistance 2 : $1.5975 (high of the American session on Apr 3)

Resistance 1 : $1.5930/35 (area of Apr 10-11 highs)

The current price: $1.5921

Support 1 : $1.5885 (low of the American session on Apr 11)

Support 2 : $1.5850 (Apr 11 low)

Support 3 : $1.5805 (Apr 5-10 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3250 (Mar 29 low)

Resistance 2 : $1.3210 (high of the European session on Apr 4)

Resistance 1 : $1.3155/65 (area of Apr 5-11 highs)

The current price: $1.3129

Support 1 : $1.3105 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3065 (Apr 11 low)

Support 3 : $1.3030 (Apr 9 low)

Change % Change Last

Oil $102.58 -0.12 -0.12%

Gold $1,659.00 -1.30 -0.08%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,458.74 -79.28 -0.83%

Hang Seng 20,121.71 -234.53 -1.15%

S&P/ASX 200 4,246.13 -46.14 -1.07%

Shanghai Composite 2,308.92 +3.06 +0.13%

FTSE 100 5,634.74 +39.19 +0.70%

CAC 40 3,237.69 +20.09 +0.62%

DAX 6,674.73 +68.30 +1.03%

Dow 12,805.39 +89.46 +0.70%

Nasdaq 3,016.46 +25.24 +0.84%

S&P 500 1,368.71 +10.12 +0.74%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3110 +0,22%

GBP/USD $1,5908 +0,31%

USD/CHF Chf0,9174 -0,12%

USD/JPY Y80,87 +0,19%

EUR/JPY Y106,00 +0,38%

GBP/JPY Y128,63 +0,47%

AUD/USD $1,0303 +0,48%

NZD/USD $0,8183 +0,33%

USD/CAD C$1,0036 -0,05%

01:30 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation April +2.7%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate March 5.2% 5.3%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed March -15.4 6.7

05:30 France CPI, m/m March +0.4% +0.6%

05:30 France CPI, y/y March +2.3% +2.1%

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report -

08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods February -7.5 -7.6

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) February +0.2% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) February -1.2% -1.8%

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions February 2.1 2.2

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index February +0.1% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m March +0.4% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y March +3.3% +3.0%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m March +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y March +3.0% +2.8%

12:30 U.S. International trade, bln February -52.6 -51.9

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 07.04.2012 357 355

13:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks -

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -

18:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Posen Speaks -

19:30 U.S. FOMC Member Raskin Speaks -

23:50 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting