Forex-novosti i prognoze od 12-10-2015

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Hang Seng 22,730.93 +272.13 +1.21 %

S&P/ASX 200 5,232.87 -46.82 -0.89 %

Shanghai Composite 3,287.81 +104.66 +3.29 %

FTSE 100 6,371.18 -44.98 -0.70 %

CAC 40 4,688.7 -12.69 -0.27 %

Xetra DAX 10,119.83 +23.23 +0.23 %

S&P 500 2,017.46 +2.57 +0.13 %

NASDAQ Composite 4,838.64 +8.17 +0.17 %

Dow Jones 17,131.86 +47.37 +0.28 %

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1357 +0,01%

GBP/USD $1,5343 +0,22%

USD/CHF Chf0,9624 +0,10%

USD/JPY Y120,04 -0,17%

EUR/JPY Y136,32 -0,23%

GBP/JPY Y184,16 -0,06%

AUD/USD $0,7360 +0,35%

NZD/USD $0,6710 +0,24%

USD/CAD C$1,3000 +0,43%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence September 1

01:00 China New Loans September 809.6 900

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln September 60.24 46.79

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence September 41.7

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) September 0.0% -0.2%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) September 0.2% 0%

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y September -16.5%

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m September 0.5% 0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y September 1.1% 1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) September -2.4% 0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) September -13.8% -12.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) September -0.4% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) September -1.8% -1.8%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m September 0.2% 0%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y September 0.0% 0%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y September 1.0% 1.1%

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment October 33.3

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment October 12.1 6

18:00 U.S. Federal budget September -64.4 95

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories October -1.2

23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence October -5.6%

U.S. stocks closed mildly higher Monday in low volume trade as investors readied for the first major earnings reports due Tuesday.

The Nasdaq composite closed above its 50-day moving average for the first time since Aug. 17. The Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 closed above their 50-day moving averages last week and have remained above.

The major U.S. averages struggled to hold higher during the trading session, with the three indexes dipping in and out of negative territory in early trade.

Utilities closed up 0.9 percent as the greatest advancer in the S&P, while energy fell 1.08 percent and materials closed down 0.88 percent as the only decliners. Both sectors rallied last week as the best performers in the S&P during that time.

Oil settled down $2.53, or 5.10 percent, at $47.10 a barrel, giving back more than half of last week's rally of nearly 9 percent. Monday's decline was the worst daily decline since Sept. 1. Brent also declined to hold just above $50 a barrel.

Chevron and IBM were the greatest weights on the Dow Jones industrial average.

Today in quiet trading, the dollar fell against the world's currencies as reduced expectations the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before the end of the year continue to put pressure on the US currency. Trading volumes are expected to remain low today as US markets are closed in observance of Columbus Day.

Minutes of the Fed's September meeting released on Thursday showed that the majority of members of the leadership is inclined to raise rates this year, while the financial market turmoil "is not significantly affected" the prospects for the US economy.

However, the minutes also noted that the recent economic and financial developments in the world, is likely to increase the risk for the US economy.

Protocols reinforced expectations that US interest rates are likely to remain at current levels until 2016.

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Sunday that the US central bank chose a cautious approach to the issue of raising interest rates, given the events abroad, as well as the impact of higher interest rates in emerging markets and other countries.

Many economists believe that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. However, economic instability outside the United States has forced the central bank to refrain from raising. Since Fed officials have stated that it is still planning to raise rates before the end of the year. The prospect of continued low interest rates for a long time put pressure on the dollar, as higher borrowing costs will make the US currency more attractive for investors seeking yield.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Dennis Lockhart on Monday reiterated that he expects the US central bank will raise short-term interest rates this year.

However, he also warned that since the coming economic and financial news to influence Fed decisions taken by the leadership, the situation may change.

Little support for the euro had earlier statement by the representative of the ECB Ker. He noted that it is too early to take a decision to expand QE. In focus were also comments of the International Monetary Fund. Recall, the IMF stated that the forecast deterioration in opportunities for economic growth in the world economy in the medium term. "The global economic recovery continues, but growth remains modest and uneven. Global risks of economic growth increased despite the efforts of developed countries to overcome the crisis, as many developing economies are experiencing tighter financing conditions, reduced capital inflows and currency pressure due to the high currency indebtedness of the private sector, "- said the IMF.

Investors also await the publication of the German ZEW index for October, which is an early indicator of economic and business expectations. This index is likely to show that the trust company was undermined by concerns around China, as well as the scandal with Volkswagen.

The pound strengthened against the dollar, returning almost all the positions lost on Friday. Investors are waiting for the publication of data on inflation in Britain. It is expected that consumer prices in September remained at zero for the second month in a row. Extremely low commodity prices in the international markets and the strengthening of the British pound, which leads to a reduction in price of imported goods, since the beginning of the year to keep inflation at a level close to zero. According to the latest forecasts of the Bank of England, consumer price inflation will begin only next spring.

Major U.S. stock-indexes were little changed on Monday as investors paused before a busy week of quarterly results from U.S. banks and several Dow companies. JPMorgan (JPM) reports on Tuesday, with Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) posting results through the week.

Dow stocks mixed (16 in negative area, 14 in positive). Top looser - Chevron Corporation (CVX, -1.47%). Top gainer - UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH, +2.50%).

Most of S&P index sectors in positive area. Top looser - Basic Materials (-1.4%). Top gainer - Utilities (+0,8%).

At the moment:

Dow 17034.00 +43.00 +0.25%

S&P 500 2009.00 +1.50 +0.07%

Nasdaq 100 4376.75 +17.25 +0.40%

10 Year yield 2,09% -0,01

Oil 48.05 -1.58 -3.18%

Gold 1162.90 +7.00 +0.61%

Polish equity market closed lower on Monday. The broad market benchmark, the WIG Index, lost 0.27%. Sector-wise, materials (-1.78%) fared the worst, while food sector (+1.43%) and utilities (+1.28%) outperformed.

The large-cap stocks' measure, the WIG30 Index, fell by 0.29%. Within the WIG30 Index components, EUROCASH (WSE: EUR) was hit the hardest, tumbling by 7.67% on announcement that Poland's main opposition party Law and Justice, which opinion polls show will win a general election on Oct. 25, plans to impose a 2% tax on retail sales for large outlets. It was followed by PZU (WSE: PZU) and KGHM (WSE: KGH), declining by 2.72% and 2.44% respectively. On the other side of the ledger, HANDLOWY (WSE: BHW), KERNEL (WSE: KER) and GTC (WSE: GTC) recorded the strongest daily performance, each gaining more than 3%.

Stock indices closed mixed as market participants were cautious on the uncertainty over the Fed's interest rate hike weighed on markets.

European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure said in an interview with CNBC on Monday that it is too early to decide if to expand the asset-buying programme or not.

"If anything were needed, we would need to be ready. But it is too early to pass that kind of judgement," he said.

Coeure noted that the economy was recovering but there are risks from the slowdown in the emerging economies.

The ECB President Mario Draghi said in an interview with the Greek newspaper Kathimerini published on Saturday that the central bank's asset-buying programme is working better than expected but reaching the 2% inflation may take more time due to lower oil prices.

The Bank of France released its current account data on Monday. France's current account surplus was €0.2 billion in August, up from a deficit of €0.4 billion in July.

The trade goods deficit widened to €1.1 billion in August from €0.9 billion in July.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,371.18 -44.98 -0.70 %

DAX 10,119.83 +23.23 +0.23 %

CAC 40 4,688.7 -12.69 -0.27 %

Oil prices traded lower as market participants eyed expectations for a rise in global oil demand and an increase in OPEC's oil output. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly report on Monday that its output in September rose to 1.57 million barrels a day, up about 109,000 barrels a day from August.

OPEC said that it expects non-OPEC oil production to decline next year, while OPEC oil output to rise.

The OPEC secretary general Abdullah el-Badri said on Sunday that oil production from non-OPEC producers declined and global oil demand increased.

The oil driller Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active U.S. rigs declined by 6 rigs to 605 last week. It was the sixth consecutive decrease and the lowest level since the week ending July 30, 2010.

Combined oil and gas rigs fell by 14 to 795. It was the lowest level since May 2002.

WTI crude oil for November delivery fell to $48.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent crude oil for November declined to $51.74 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Gold price increased on a weaker U.S. dollar. Speculation that the Fed may not raise its interest rates this year weighed on the greenback.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart repeated on Monday that the interest rate hike by the Fed this year is still possible.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Monday that the interest rate hike should be very gradual when the Fed will start raising its interest rates. Evans noted that he is not confident if the inflation target in the U.S. will be reached "within a reasonable time frame".

December futures for gold on the COMEX today rose to 1168.60 dollars per ounce.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Monday that the interest rate hike should be very gradual when the Fed will start raising its interest rates.

"After lift-off, I think it would be appropriate to raise the target interest rate very gradually. This would give us sufficient time to assess how the economy is adjusting to higher rates and the progress we are making toward our policy goals," he said.

"And right now, regardless of the exact date for lift-off, I think it could well be appropriate for the funds rate to still be under 1 percent at the end of 2016," Evans added.

Chicago Fed president noted that he is not confident if the inflation target in the U.S. will be reached "within a reasonable time frame".

The European Commission said in its statement on Monday that Spain will not meet its deficit targets. According to the Spanish Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP), Spain expects the general government deficit to fall to 4.2% of GDP this year and 2.8% in 2016. But the European Commission forecasted that the government deficit to decline to 4.5% this year and to 3.5% of GDP in 2016.

The European Commission said that Spain should "ensure that the 2016 budget will be compliant with the Stability and Growth Pact".

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services downgraded Volkswagen AG's long-term rating by a notch to 'A-' from 'A'. The agency noted that CreditWatch was negative.

"The downgrade reflects our assessment that VW has demonstrated material deficiencies in its management and governance and general risk management framework. We believe VW's internal controls have been shown to be inadequate in preventing or identifying alleged illegal behaviour in the U.S. and misconduct in other regions," the agency said in its statement.

The European Central Bank (ECB) purchased €12.46 billion of government and agency bonds under its quantitative-easing program last week.

The ECB said in its minutes of September meeting last week that it will raise the pace of its asset purchases from September to November 2015 "to prepare for the expected decline in market liquidity in December".

ECB'S asset buying programme is intended to run to September 2016.

The ECB bought €1.82 billion of covered bonds, and €244 million of asset-backed securities.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member Vitas Vasiliauskas said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Saturday that there is no need for further stimulus measures in the Eurozone.

"I feel in your questions and market sentiments, everybody is asking, what you will do additionally. My message is very clear: There is no need for any additional measures," he said.

Vasiliauskas added that the asset-buying programme was working.

He pointed out that low inflation in the Eurozone's is driven by a decline in energy prices.

EUR/USD: $1.1200(E278mn), $1.1230(E200mn), $1.1250(E200mn), $1.1250(E581mn), $1.1300(E348mn), $1.1500(E711mn)

USD/JPY: Y120.25-30($300mn), Y120.85($230mn), Y121.00($380mn), Y122.00($800mn)

GBP/USD: $1.5100(Gbp203mn), $1.5155(Gbp191mn)

EUR/GBP: Gbp0.7400(E200mn)

AUD/USD: $0.7300(A$333mn), $0.7335(A$250mn)

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed as investors awaited further indications on the strength of the world's biggest economy from corporate earnings reports.

Global Stocks:

Hang Seng 22,730.93 +272.13 +1.21%

Shanghai Composite 3,287.81 +104.66 +3.29%

FTSE 6,372.61 -43.55 -0.68%

CAC 4,679.94 -21.45 -0.46%

DAX 10,112.8 +16.20 +0.16%

Crude oil $49.61 (-0.04%)

Gold $1165.39 (+0.87%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Exxon Mobil (XOM) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays

Goldman Sachs (GS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup

Downgrades:

Other:

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $162 from $155 at Morgan Stanley

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart repeated on Monday that the interest rate hike by the Fed this year is still possible.

He repeated his Friday's remarks.

October 13

Before the Open:

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Consensus EPS $1.45, Consensus Revenue $17473.64 mln.

After the Close:

Intel (INTC). Consensus EPS $0.59, Consensus Revenue $14212.53 mln.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM). Consensus EPS $1.37, Consensus Revenue $23439.39 mln.

October 14

Before the Open:

Bank of America (BAC). Consensus EPS $0.33, Consensus Revenue $20841.58 mln.

October 15

Before the Open:

Citigroup (C). Consensus EPS $1.28, Consensus Revenue $18856.08 mln.

Goldman Sachs (GS). Consensus EPS $3.02, Consensus Revenue $6966.43 mln.

UnitedHealth (UNH). Consensus EPS $1.64, Consensus Revenue $40262.12 mln.

October 16

Before the Open:

General Electric (GE). Consensus EPS $0.26, Consensus Revenue $28487.55 mln.

Honeywell (HON). Consensus EPS $1.55, Consensus Revenue $9849.80 mln.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:00 Japan Bank holiday

12:00 Canada Bank holiday

12:00 U.S. Bank holiday

12:10 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to lower against the most major currencies in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.S.

Thursday's minutes of the Fed's latest meeting still weighed on the greenback. The Fed said that it wanted to have more time to see if the slowdown in the global economy will have a negative effect on the U.S. economy.

Most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members expect the Fed to start raising its interest rate this year.

FOMC members noted that the U.S. labour market continued to improve, while the inflation remained at low levels.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic data from the Eurozone.

European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure said in an interview with CNBC on Monday that it is too early to decide if to expand the asset-buying programme or not.

"If anything were needed, we would need to be ready. But it is too early to pass that kind of judgement," he said.

Coeure noted that the economy was recovering but there are risks from the slowdown in the emerging economies.

The ECB President Mario Draghi said in an interview with the Greek newspaper Kathimerini published on Saturday that the central bank's asset-buying programme is working better than expected but reaching the 2% inflation may take more time due to lower oil prices.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.5321

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y120.09

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:30 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

17:20 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

20:30 U.S. FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

21:40 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

EUR/USD

Offers 1.1380 1.1400 1.1425-30 1.1450 1.1475 1.1500

Bids 1.1355-60 1.1330 1.1300 1.1285 1.1270 1.1250

GBP/USD

Offers 1.5360 1.5385 1.5400-10 1.5425-30 1.5450 1.5480 1.5500-10

Bids 1.5325-30 1.5300 1.5280 1.5255-60 1.5240 1.5220 1.5200

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7420 0.7430-35 0.7450 0.7475-80 0.7500 0.7530 0.7550

Bids 0.7400 0.7380-85 0.7350 0.7330-35 0.7300 0.7285 0.7265 0.7250

EUR/JPY

Offers 136.85 137.00 137.25 137.50 137.80 138.00 138.30 138.50

Bids 136.50 136.25 136.00 135.80 135.50 135.25 135.00 134

USD/JPY

Offers 120.35 120.50 120.65 120.85 121.00 121.30 121.50

Bids 120.00 119.85 119.65 119.50 119.25 119.10 119.00

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7375 0.7400 0.7425 0.7450 0.7465 0.7480 0.7500

Bids 0.7320-25 0.7310 0.7300 0.7275 0.7260 0.7230 0.7200

Stock indices traded lower despite the rise in stock markets in Asia. Chinese stock markets increased on speculation the government will add further stimulus measures.

The uncertainty over the Fed's interest rate hike weighs on markets.

European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure said in an interview with CNBC on Monday that it is too early to decide if to expand the asset-buying programme or not.

"If anything were needed, we would need to be ready. But it is too early to pass that kind of judgement," he said.

Coeure noted that the economy was recovering but there are risks from the slowdown in the emerging economies.

The ECB President Mario Draghi said in an interview with the Greek newspaper Kathimerini published on Saturday that the central bank's asset-buying programme is working better than expected but reaching the 2% inflation may take more time due to lower oil prices.

The Bank of France released its current account data on Monday. France's current account surplus was €0.2 billion in August, up from a deficit of €0.4 billion in July.

The trade goods deficit widened to €1.1 billion in August from €0.9 billion in July.

Current figures:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 6,377.94 -38.22 -0.60 %

DAX 10,085.37 -11.23 -0.11 %

CAC 40 4,665.54 -35.85 -0.76 %

European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure said in an interview with CNBC on Monday that it is too early to decide if to expand the asset-buying programme or not.

"If anything were needed, we would need to be ready. But it is too early to pass that kind of judgement," he said.

Coeure noted that the economy was recovering but there are risks from the slowdown in the emerging economies.

EUR/USD: $1.1200(E278mn), $1.1230(E200mn), $1.1250(E200mn), $1.1250(E581mn), $1.1300(E348mn), $1.1500(E711mn)

USD/JPY: Y120.25-30($300mn), Y120.85($230mn), Y121.00($380mn), Y122.00($800mn)

GBP/USD: $1.5100(Gbp203mn), $1.5155(Gbp191mn)

EUR/GBP: Gbp0.7400(E200mn)

AUD/USD: $0.7300(A$333mn), $0.7335(A$250mn)

The Bank of France released its current account data on Monday. France's current account surplus was €0.2 billion in August, up from a deficit of €0.4 billion in July.

The trade goods deficit widened to €1.1 billion in August from €0.9 billion in July, while the surplus on services rose to €0.9 billion from €0.1 billion.

The deficit on financial account increased to €10.4 billion in August from €9.7 billion in July.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Sunday that the Fed wants to start raising its interest rates this year, adding that it is "an expectation, not a commitment", which depends on the developments in the global economy.

"Both the timing of the first rate increase and any subsequent adjustments to the federal funds rate target will depend critically on future developments in the economy," he said.

Fischer pointed out that the slowdown in the global economy already had an effect on the U.S as the Fed delayed its interest rate hike.

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said in an interview with the Greek newspaper Kathimerini published on Saturday that the central bank's asset-buying programme is working better than expected but reaching the 2% inflation may take more time due to lower oil prices.

"We are satisfied with QE, as it has met and even surpassed our initial expectations," he said.

Draghi pointed out that the ECB is ready to expand its asset-buying programme if needed.

The European Commission's Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said on Friday that the European Union's (EU) economy benefits from lower oil prices and a weaker euro. But he added that there are risks to the EU's economy from the slowdown in the emerging economies.

Dombrovskis noted that the economy in the EU is still expected to expand 1.8% this year and 2.1% next year.

He pointed out that the central bank's asset-buying programme "cannot solve structural problems in the economy".

The oil driller Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active U.S. rigs declined by 6 rigs to 605 last week. It was the sixth consecutive decrease and the lowest level since the week ending July 30, 2010.

Combined oil and gas rigs fell by 14 to 795. It was the lowest level since May 2002.

The U.S. House of Representatives voted to lift a ban on the export of crude oil on Friday. 159 of 261 of members voted in favour of the lift of a ban, which was implemented in the 1970s.

The bill has to pass the Senate.

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1484 (2337)

$1.1446 (1329)

$1.1401 (738)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1370

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1291 (531)

$1.1243 (2351)

$1.1181 (2061)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 6 is 31283 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3421);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 6 is 41197 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (4337);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.32 versus 1.21 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 9

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5603 (393)

$1.5505 (1397)

$1.5409 (1095)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5330

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5194 (1986)

$1.5096 (1457)

$1.4998 (1089)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 6 is 14510 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5350 (2047);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 6 is 14471 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5200 (1986);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 0.91 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 9

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.