Forex-novosti i prognoze od 15-05-2012

European stocks dropped for a second day, pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to its lowest level since December, as Greece called a new election after the country’s politicians failed to form a government.

Greece will hold its new vote as early as next month as polls showed that the anti-austerity Syriza group could win the ballot. The failure to form a government committed to austerity has reignited concern that the country will leave the euro area.

Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area stagnated in the first quarter compared with the final three months of 2011, according to the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg. The median forecast of economists had called for a 0.2 percent contraction. Germany’s economy expanded 0.5 percent, compared with the 0.1 percent median estimate of economists in a separate survey.

National benchmark indexes fell in every western-European market except Norway and Ireland. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 lost 0.5 percent and France’s CAC 40 lost 0.6 percent. Germany’s DAX retreated 0.8 percent. Greece’s ASE Index plunged 3.6 percent to its lowest level since November 1992.

UniCredit SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, the biggest Italian lenders, declined 5.5 percent to 2.53 euros and 5.5 percent to 97.65 euro cents, respectively, after Moody’s Investors Service cut the credit ratings of 26 of the nation’s lenders, citing weakened earnings and the domestic economic outlook.

Vivendi SA  added 2 percent to 12.68 euros after reporting profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates. First-quarter net income, excluding one-off gains or losses and some costs, fell 13 percent to 823 million euros. That beat the 765 million-euro average of analyst estimates.

The euro fell to the lowest in almost four months versus the dollar as talks to form a Greek government failed, fueling concern the nation may leave the shared currency and boosting investor demand for safety. Greek President Karolos Papoulias’ meeting in Athens today with political leaders failed to produce a government after an inconclusive May 6 vote. He called for a meeting tomorrow to form a caretaker government to lead the country until the vote. A second election threatened to extend the country’s political gridlock and reignited speculation Greece will renege on its pledges to cut spending, required by the terms of its 240 billion euros ($306 billion) in bailouts. It added to bets Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will worsen.

The euro gained earlier after the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said gross domestic product in the region stagnated in the first quarter compared with the prior three months. Germany’s 0.5 percent expansion at five times the pace economists had estimated helped offset weaker GDP in the euro area’s peripheral economies.

Sterling reached the strongest level against the euro since November 2008 as investors sought an alternative to the 17- nation currency. The pound gained 0.1 percent, erasing earlier losses, to 79.60 pence per euro before trading little changed at 79.72 pence.

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up from a three-month low, after better-than-forecast economic data offset Greece’s struggle to form a new government as the nation planned new elections.

Equities swung between gains and losses as investors weighed better-than-estimated reports on manufacturing in the New York region and confidence among U.S. homebuilders, while concern grew about Greece leaving the euro. Alexis Tsipras, Greek Syriza party leader, said he wants a left-wing government to emerge from new elections and that his refusal to join a pro- bailout unity government was done out of respect for Greeks.

Groupon surged 16 percent to $13.67. The coupon site is attempting to rebuild investor confidence after shares dropped more than 40 percent since its November initial public offering, one of the worst public market debuts for a Web company since the dot-com crash.

Amazon gained 3.1 percent to $229.76. The world’s largest Internet retailer was raised to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse, which cited the potential for wider margins. The rating means that the stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark by at least 10 percent over the next 12 months.

Avon tumbled 12 percent to $18.53. Coty, the maker of perfumes by Beyonce Knowles and Heidi Klum, said attempts to speak to Avon board members, including Chairman Andrea Jung and Chief Executive Officer Sheri McCoy, failed after it received a two-sentence e-mail requesting a deadline extension.

Home Depot (HD) slumped 2.3 percent to $48.76. Warmer-than- normal temperatures accelerated sales of outdoor items, raising concern that second-quarter sales would slow. Same-store sales decelerated during the course of the first quarter, rising 5.4 percent in April after advancing 6 percent in March and 6.2 percent in February, Chief Financial Officer Carol Tome told analysts today.

Oil declined after talks to form a Greek government failed, setting in motion new elections next month, and sending the euro to a four-month low.

Futures dropped as much as 0.9 percent as Pasok party leader Evangelos Venizelos said Greeks are headed back to the polls. The euro fell against the dollar after the announcement. A weaker European currency reduces the appeal of dollar- denominated raw materials as an investment. Oil advanced earlier after manufacturing in the New York region expanded.

Oil in New York advanced as much as 0.7 percent earlier after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index increased in May. Confidence among U.S. homebuilders jumped to a five-year high.

Brent oil climbed after economic growth in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, beat economists’ projections. German gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent in the first quarter, the Federal Statistic Office said in Wiesbaden today. Economists predicted a 0.1 percent gain.

An Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show that U.S. crude stockpiles advanced 1.5 million barrels to 381 million in the last week, according to the median of 10 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey. That would be the highest level since August 1990.

Crude oil for June delivery traded at range of $93,91 - $95,48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent oil for June settlement gained 33 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $111.90 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The price of gold is reduced to the background of the continuing concerns about the political situation in Greece, which has not yet formed a new cabinet after the early parliamentary elections.

At the same time, despite the uncertainty in Greece, which has increased speculation about a possible withdrawal from the eurozone countries, the head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker, said yesterday that such a question at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers (Eurogroup) on Monday was not discussed.

To limit the decline in gold prices helped the high demand from the jewelry industry of Asian countries - India, Thailand and Indonesia.

Earlier Tuesday, the value of the metal support provided preliminary evidence that the German economy in the first quarter of 2012 increased by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter. Analysts had expected German GDP in the quarter grew by only 0.1% over the fourth quarter of 2011.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX fell today to $ 1546.8 an ounce and is currently trading at around $ 1552.1 an ounce.

Resistance 3:1363 (area of May 10-11 highs)

Resistance 2:1356 (resistance line from May 7)

Resistance 1:1347 (session high)

Current price: 1339,75

Support 1:1330 (38,2 % FIBO 1197-1420)

Support 2:1300 (area of 50,0 % FIBO 1197-1420, psychological level)

Support 3:1296 (Jan 30 low)

EUR/USD $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.2950

USD/JPY Y79.50, Y79.55, Y79.75, Y80.00

GBP/USD $1.6100

AUD/USD $0.9975, $1.0000, $1.0150

US futures fell after Greek anti-bailout Conservative Kammenos saying there is no deal on government.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,900.74 -73.10 -0.81%

Hang Seng 19,894.31 +159.27 +0.81%

S&P/ASX  4,266.28 -30.72 -0.71%

Shanghai Composite 2,374.84 -5.88 -0.25%

FTSE  5,431.3 -34.22 -0.63%

CAC  3,035.47 -22.52 -0.74%

DAX 6,397.99 -53.98 -0.84%

Crude oil $94.66 (-0.13%).

Gold $1557.70 (-0.21%).

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3000, $1.2980, $1.2920/50, $1.2870/90

Bids $1.2800, $1.2780/75 

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6200/05, $1.6150/55, $1.6115/25

Bids $1.6010/00, $1.5980, $1.5965/60

Resistance 3: Y81.20 (38,2 % FIBO Y84,20-Y79,40)
Resistance 2: Y80.55/60 (area of maxima on May, 2-3nd)
Resistance 1: Y80.20 (a maximum on May, 14th, a line of resistance from March, 23rd))
The current price: Y79.92
Support 1: Y79.70 (area of May 11-14 lows)
Support 2: Y79.40 (May 9 low)
Support 3: Y79.15 (61,8 % FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9500 (psychological level)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9400 (psychological level, resistance line from November’2010)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9370/80 (area of session high, May 14 high and Jan 23 high)
Current price: Chf0.9344
Support 1: Chf0.9330 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9300 (earlier resistance, area May 9 and 11 highs)
Support 3: Chf0.9255 (May 10 low, МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3 : $1.6150 (resistance line from May 7)

Resistance 2 : $1.6110/20 (session high, May 14 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6080 (intraday high)

Current price: $1.6049

Support 1 : $1.6040 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.6000 (61,8 % FIBO $1,5820-$ 1,6300, Apr 19 low, psychological level, support line from Jan 13)

Support 3 : $1.5900 (psychological level)

EUR/USD $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.2950

USD/JPY Y79.50, Y79.55, Y79.75, Y80.00

GBP/USD $1.6100

AUD/USD $0.9975, $1.0000, $1.0150

Asian stocks fell as the political impasse in Greece added to speculation the nation will leave the euro union and Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Italian banks ahead of a report that may show Europe’s economy shrank.

Nikkei 225 8,900.74 -73.10 -0.81%

S&P/ASX 200 4,266.3 -30.69 -0.71%

Shanghai Composite 2,361.17 -19.56 -0.82%

Nippon Sheet Glass Co., a glassmaker that counts Europe as its No. 1 market, slumped 1 percent in Tokyo after saying it may continue to suspend some production in Europe this year on slumping demand.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, declined 2.2 percent in Sydney after metal prices fell.

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., the mainland’s biggest developer by market value, fell 1 percent in Hong Kong after a report Shanghai tightened home-purchase restrictions.

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) April +4.0% -0.7%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) April +4.0% +7.3%

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence April 40.3 40.9 40.0

The euro traded near an almost four- month low amid mounting doubts that Greece can avoid an exit from the currency union as the region’s finance ministers meet for a second day in Brussels. Greece’s president will call a meeting of leaders of all parliamentary parties except for an ultra-nationalist party today to make the case for a government of prominent non- politicians. The 17-nation currency traded 0.3 percent from a three-month low against the yen before a report forecast to show Europe’s economy contracted. The euro-region’s gross domestic product probably fell 0.2 percent in the first quarter from the previous three-month period when it contracted 0.3 percent, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The European Commission releases the data today.

In France, Francois Hollande is to be sworn in today as president of the second-biggest euro economy, in the nation’s first power shift to the Socialists since 1981. Hollande’s bid to inject a pro-growth element into the austerity-dominated approach to the region’s debt crisis got a boost on May 13 when German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party was drubbed in elections in Germany’s largest, most industrial state, North Rhine-Westphalia. Merkel is set to host Hollande in Berlin today hours after his inauguration.

The dollar remained higher against most of its major peers before the Federal Reserve releases minutes tomorrow of its last board meeting. The Fed will release the minutes from its April 25 gathering tomorrow. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said after the meeting that he’s prepared to “do more” to boost the economic recovery and ensure that inflation remains close to target.

The U.S. consumer-price index probably rose 2.3 percent in April from a year earlier, down from 2.7 percent in March, according to the median economist estimate in a Bloomberg poll before the data today.

EUR/USD: the pair traded in a range $1.2815-$1.2840.

GBP/USD: the pair traded  in a range $1.6085-$1.6105.

USD/JPY: the pair traded  in range Y79.80-Y79.95.

This morning in Europe sees the release of the flash Q1 GDP data, starting with France at 0530GMT, which is expected to come in flat on the quarter. German flash GDP data is due at 0600GMT and is expected to rise just 0.1% q/q. Also in Europe today, from 0630GMT, the Ecofin EU finance ministers are due to discuss issues relating to the European Investment Bank, bank capital rules, and savings tax agreements with Switzerland, at a meeting in Brussels. France employment data is due at 0645GMT, while Italy releases Q1 flash

GDP at 0800GMT. UK trade data at 0830GMT is expected to see a reduction in the trade balance to -8.4 billion with the non-EU balance at -4.7 billion and total trade at -2.9 billion. The EMU GDP data comes at 0900GMT along with the Germany ZEW  data and is expected to show a reading of -0.2% q/q.  At 1745GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande give a press conference after a meeting in Berlin. US data starts at 1145GMT with the ICSC weekly mail sales data, while at 1230GMT, retail sales, CPI and the NY Fed Empire State Survey are all due. US data continues at 1255GMT with the weekly Redbook chain store sales data and then at 1300GMT by the Treasury International Capital System totals (TICS) data. At 1330GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks to the National Association of Realtors in Washington. Further US data at 1400GMT sees Business Inventories as well as the Housing Market Index from the NAHB.

Yesterday the euro dropped to its lowest level in almost four months against the dollar as a leadership vacuum in Greece prompted European officials to weigh prospects for the currency union’s first Alexis Tsipras, who heads Greece’s anti-bailout Syriza party, wouldn’t attend a meeting called by President Karolos Papoulias today, the Athens-based party said in a statement. Syriza rejected a unity government last week following inconclusive elections on May 6. Greece may face another vote unless leaders can agree on a new coalition.

Australia’s currency dropped below parity with the greenback for the first time this year as global stocks and commodities fell.

Sterling rallied against all of its 16 most-traded peers as investors sought an alternative to the shared currency. The pound gained as much as 0.9 percent to 79.63 pence per euro, the most since November 2008, before trading at 79.75 pence, up 0.8 percent. It rose 0.3 percent to $1.6109.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell to a floor of a figure.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair gain in the moment above $1.6100.

USD/JPY: yesterday in first half of day the pair rose above Y80.00, however fell below a Friday’s low later.

This morning in Europe sees the release of the flash Q1 GDP data, starting with France at 0530GMT, which is expected to come in flat on the quarter. German flash GDP data is due at 0600GMT and is expected to rise just 0.1% q/q. Also in Europe today, from 0630GMT, the Ecofin EU finance ministers are due to discuss issues relating to the European Investment Bank, bank capital rules, and savings tax agreements with Switzerland, at a meeting in Brussels. France employment data is due at 0645GMT, while Italy releases Q1 flash

GDP at 0800GMT. UK trade data at 0830GMT is expected to see a reduction in the trade balance to -8.4 billion with the non-EU balance at -4.7 billion and total trade at -2.9 billion. The EMU GDP data comes at 0900GMT along with the Germany ZEW  data and is expected to show a reading of -0.2% q/q.  At 1745GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande give a press conference after a meeting in Berlin. US data starts at 1145GMT with the ICSC weekly mail sales data, while at 1230GMT, retail sales, CPI and the NY Fed Empire State Survey are all due. US data continues at 1255GMT with the weekly Redbook chain store sales data and then at 1300GMT by the Treasury International Capital System totals (TICS) data. At 1330GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks to the National Association of Realtors in Washington. Further US data at 1400GMT sees Business Inventories as well as the Housing Market Index from the NAHB.

Asian stocks ended session mixed as speculation heightened Greece may exit from the single European currency, countering China’s efforts to shore up economic growth by cutting the level of cash banks must set aside as reserves.

Nikkei  8,973.84 +20.53 +0.23%

S&P/ASX  4,297 +11.93 +0.28%

Hang Seng 19,742.39 -222.24 -1.11%

Shanghai Composite 2,380.73 -14.26 -0.60%

Resistance 3: Y80.50/55 (area of May 2-3 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.20 (May 14 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.95 (session high)

The current price: Y79.85

Support 1: Y79.65 (May 14 low)

Support 2: Y79.40 (May 9 low)

Support 3: Y79.15 (61,8% FIBO Y76.00-Y84.20)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9445 (Jan 17 low)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9410 (Jan 19 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9375 (May 14 high)

The current price: Chf0.9358

Support 1: Chf0.9340 (low of the American session on May 14)

Support 2: Chf0.9305 (May 14 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9255/70 (area of May 10-11 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6240 (May 1-2 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6180/00 (area of May 7-10 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.6120 (May 14 high)

The current price: $1.6091

Support 1 : $1.6085 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.6050 (May 14 low)

Support 3 : $1.6035 (Apr 20 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2960/80 (area of May 10-11 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.2905 (May 14 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2860 (high of the American session on May 14)

The current price: $1.2831

Support 1 : $1.2815 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2730 (Jan 18 low)

Support 3 : $1.2700 (psychological level)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,557 -27 -1.69%

Oil 94.22 -1.91 -1.99%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei  8,973.84 +20.53 +0.23%

S&P/ASX  4,297 +11.93 +0.28%

Hang Seng 19,742.39 -222.24 -1.11%

Shanghai Composite 2,380.73 -14.26 -0.60%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2825 -0,71%

GBP/USD $1,6096 +0,19%

USD/CHF Chf0,9363 +0,69%

USD/JPY Y79,86 -0,08%

EUR/JPY Y102,43 -0,79%

GBP/JPY Y128,53 +0,09%

AUD/USD $0,9955 -0,63%

NZD/USD $0,7770 -0,72%

USD/CAD C$1,0028 +0,25%

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) April +4.0%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) April +4.0%

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence April 40.3 40.9

05:30 France GDP, q/q (preliminary) Quarter I +0.2% 0.0%

05:30 France GDP, Y/Y (preliminary) Quarter I +2.5% +0.5%

05:30 France CPI, m/m April +0.8% +0.3%

05:30 France CPI, y/y April +2.3% +2.2%

06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (preliminary) Quarter I -0.2% +0.1%

06:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (preliminary) Quarter I +1.5% +0.9%

06:45 France Non-Farm Payrolls (preliminary) Quarter I -0.1% -0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods March -8.8 -8.4

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment May 23.4 19.2

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment May 13.1 11.7

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (preliminary) Quarter I -0.3% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) Quarter I +0.7% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings -

12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index May 6.56 9.30

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m April +0.3% +0.1%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y April +2.7% +2.4%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m April +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y April +2.3% +2.3%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales April +0.8% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto April +0.8% +0.3%

13:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows March 10.1 19.4

13:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows March 107.7

13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Elizabeth Duke Speaks -

14:00 U.S. Business inventories March +0.6% +0.5%

14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index May 25 26

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y March +8.9% +4.4%

23:50 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m March 0.0% -0.3%