Forex-novosti i prognoze od 16-05-2012

European stocks dropped amid growing concern Greece will be forced to leave the euro area.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and new French President Francois Hollande said they would consider measures to spur economic growth in Greece as long as voters committed to the austerity demanded to stay in the euro.

National benchmark indexes declined in 13 of western Europe’s 18 markets. The U.K.’s FTSE fell 0.6%, Germany’s DAX dropped 0.3% and France’s CAC increased 0.3%. Greece’s ASE Index fell 1.3% to its lowest level since February 1990.

Lamprell Plc plunged 57% after the oil and gas rig engineer said it will incur a “small” loss in the first half, citing delays in equipment deliveries.

Credit Agricole climbed 2.2%, after tumbling 13% over the previous three days. Societe Generale upgraded the lender’s shares to buy from sell with a price target of 4 euros.

Italy’s Banca Carige SpA fell to its lowest since at least 1995.

Swatch Group AG gained 2.7% after the watchmaker forecast that the industry will expand at a “high single-digit” or “double-digit” pace in 2012 amid growing demand for luxury goods.

U.S. stocks are mixed as better- than-estimated reports on housing starts and industrial production bolstered confidence in the world’s largest economy.

Equities pared gains as two euro-area officials said the European Central Bank is conducting a comprehensive review of all its policy tools and has no immediate plans to increase stimulus even as market tensions mount.

General Motors Co. climbed 3.9% as Berkshire Hathaway Inc. disclosed a stake. General Electric Co. (GE) rose 4% as its finance unit plans to pay a dividend of $4.5 billion to the parent company.

Equities gained as economic data bolstered optimism the U.S. economy can withstand fallout from the European debt crisis. Housing starts rose 2.6% to a 717,000 annual rate from March’s revised 699,000 pace that was stronger than previously reported. Industrial production climbed 1.1%, the most since December 2010.

Concern about Europe’s debt crisis sent the S&P 500 to a three-month low this week. ECB President Mario Draghi acknowledged that Greece could leave the euro area and signaled policy makers won’t compromise on their key principles to prevent an exit. Greeks will return to the ballot boxes on June 17.

Oil fell as U.S. supplies grew to the most since 1990 and talks to form a coalition government in Greece collapsed, raising concern that Europe’s debt crisis will worsen.

Prices declined for a fourth day as the Energy Department reported oil inventories climbed 2.13 million barrels last week to 381.6 million. Supplies were forecast to grow 1.75 million barrels. Greece will schedule new elections next month. Will be a referendum on whether the country stays in the euro.

Investors are reducing gold holdings for a third month, the longest stretch since 2004, and favoring the dollar as a haven from Europe’s debt crisis.

Bullion erased its gains for 2012 this week as the dollar rose against a basket of currencies for a record 12 straight days. Gold held in exchange-traded products fell 30.8 metric tons since reaching a record 2,410.2 tons on March 13.

Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, ABN Amro Bank NV and Barclays Plc cut their forecasts in May, though Goldman expects prices to rise 25 percent to $1,940 an ounce in 12 months.

The ECB will be forced to pump more money into the euro region in response to the debt crisis, reviving the appeal of gold.

Record-low interest rates from the U.S. to Europe may prop up demand for gold, which generally earns investors returns only through price gains. The Fed has pledged to keep rates at “exceptionally low levels” at least through late 2014. Central banks are buying bullion at the fastest pace in five decades, adding 439.7 tons in 2011. They may purchase a similar amount this year, the London-based World Gold Council estimates.

Usually, gold could be viewed as a safe haven or a contra play to the dollar. It’s really doing neither right now. It’s highly possible that we’ll see gold and commodities in general continue to drift down until the Fed steps in with some sort of quantitative easing package.

Resistance 3:1363 (area of May 10-11 high)

Resistance 2:1350 (area of resistance line from May 7, МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1:1347 (May 15 high)

Current price: 1338,75

Support 1:1320 (area of session low)

Support 2:1300 (area of 50,0 % FIBO 1197-1420, psychological level)

Support 3:1296 (Jan 30 low)

Greek exit from eurozone not for the ECB to decide

EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2930

USD/JPY Y79.60, Y79.80, Y80.00, Y80.50

GBP/USD $1.6050, $1.6100

USD/CHF Chf0.9300

AUD/USD $0.9950, $1.0000, $1.0020

U.S. stock futures advanced as better-than-estimated housing starts report bolstered confidence in the world’s largest economy.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,801.17 -99.57 -1.12%

Hang Seng 19,259.83 -634.48 -3.19%

Shanghai Composite 2,346.19 -28.65 -1.21%

FTSE  5,423.96 -13.66 -0.25%

CAC  3,060.85 +21.58 +0.71%

DAX 6,399.35 -1.71 -0.03%

Crude oil $92.96 (-1.09%)

Gold $1541.00 (-1.03%)

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6090/95, $1.6055/65, $1.6020, $1.5990/000, $1.5965/75, $1.5930/40

Bids $1.5880, $1.5850

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0065/70, $1.0040/50, $1.0020/30, $1.0015, $1.0000, $0.9980/85, $0.9945/50

Bids $0.9870, $0.9850, $0.9800, $0.9750, $0.9730/25

USD/JPY

Offers Y81.50, Y81.40/45, Y81.20/25, Y81.00, Y80.85/90, Y80.60/70, Y80.50/55

Bids Y80.20/15, Y80.10/00, Y79.85/80, Y79.65/60, Y79.50, Y79.40, Y79.25

Resistance 3: Y81.80 (50.0 % FIBO Y84,20-Y79,40, Apr 20 high)
Resistance 2: Y81.20 (38,2 % FIBO Y84,20-Y79,40)
Resistance 1: Y80.55/60 (area of May 2-3 highs)
Current price: Y80.49
Support 1: Y80.20 (resistance line from Mar 21 broken earlier)
Support 2: Y79.90 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3: Y79.70 (area of May 11-14 lows)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9600 (area of high of January)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9500 (psychological level)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9470 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9442
Support 1: Chf0.9420 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9370 (support line from May 1)
Support 3: Chf0.9330 (May 15 low)

Комментарии: пара тестирует линию сопротивления от ноября 2010 года. На D1 индикатор RSI поднялся выше отметки 70 пунктов, что является сигналом перепроданности и указывает на высокие шансы начала коррекции.

Resistance 3 : $1.6110/20 (May 14-15 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6040 (38,2 % FIBO $1,6300-$ 1,5890)

Resistance 1 : $1.5990 (intraday high)

Current price: $1.5918

Support 1 : $1.5890 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5860 (Apr 17 low)

Support 3 : $1.5820 (Apr 16 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2870 (May 15 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.2800 (resistance line from May 11)
Resistance 1 : $1.2740 (session high)
Current price: $1.2719
Support 1 : $1.2680 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2620 (low of January)
Support 3 : $1.2600/90 (low of August’2008)

EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2930

USD/JPY Y79.60, Y79.80, Y80.00, Y80.50

GBP/USD $1.6050, $1.6100

USD/CHF Chf0.9300

AUD/USD $0.9950, $1.0000, $1.0020

Asian stocks fell, with a regional benchmark index headed for its biggest loss this year, as Greece’s move to call new elections increased concern the country will decide to leave the euro and derail efforts to contain the region’s debt crisis.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and Korea’s Kospi index fell more than 3 percent, entering so-called corrections after retreating more than 10 percent from recent highs.

Nikkei 225 8,801.17 -99.57 -1.12%

Hang Seng 19,204.38 -689.93 -3.47%

S&P/ASX 200 4,165.5 -100.78 -2.36%

Shanghai Composite 2,346.19 -28.65 -1.21%

Nissan Motor Co., which depends on Europe for about 16 percent of its sales, slid 2.2 percent in Tokyo.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, declined 4.1 percent in Sydney after metal prices fell.

Toll Holdings Ltd., an Australian trucking company, sank 15 percent after forecasting lower full-year profit.

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence May -1.6% 0.8%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter I +1.0% +0.9% +0.9%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter I +3.6% +3.5% +3.6%

The euro fell to the lowest level in almost four months after Greece’s political leaders failed to form a ruling coalition, deepening speculation the country will have to leave the currency bloc. Demand for the euro was damped before Greek leaders seek agreement today on an interim government that will schedule new elections. New elections in Greece may be scheduled as early as June 10 after President Karolos Papoulias failed to broker a governing coalition in meetings yesterday with Pasok party head Evangelos Venizelos and other political leaders. The new ballot will follow an inconclusive May 6 vote that produced no clear majority.

The Dollar Index extended its longest stretch of daily advances on record as Asian stocks continued a global rout and before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its April meeting.  The Fed will release minutes of its April 25 meeting later today. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said after the most recent meeting of policy makers that he’s prepared to “do more” to boost the economic recovery and ensure that inflation remains close to target. Officials have said borrowing costs are likely to remain “exceptionally low” at least through late 2014.

The yen extended yesterday’s decline against the dollar after data from Japan’s Cabinet Office showed machinery orders decreased 2.8 percent in March after climbing a revised 2.8 percent in the previous month. The median economist estimate signaled at 3.5 percent drop. Orders can swing between gains and declines depending on the timing of major projects.

The New Zealand dollar declined for a fourth day versus the greenback after after Auckland-based Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s largest dairy exporter, said prices for whole- milk powder for July delivery fell to the lowest since August 2009, according to a trade-weighted index. The so-called kiwi lost 0.5 percent to 76.57 U.S. cents.

EUR/USD: the pair lowered to $1.2700.

GBP/USD: the pair continued yesterday's falling.

USD/JPY: the pair gain above yesterday's high.

European data for Wednesday starts at 0600GMT with German wholesale prices data and also ACEA new car registrations data. EMU data at 0900GMT includes the March trade balance as well as the final reading for April HICP. At 1300GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to give the welcome address at an ECB colloquium in honour of Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, in Frankfurt. The Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report is due at 0930GMT with Governor Mervyn King leading the usual press conference. US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA mortgage applications data, while at 1230GMT, the pace of housing starts is expected to rise to 685,000 in April after slowing in the previous two months. Canadian manufacturing data is due at the same time. US data continues at 1315GMT when industrial production is expected to rise 0.6% in April after holding steady in February and March. The weekly EIA weekly crude oil stocks data is then due, at 1430GMT. At 1545GMT, World Bank President Robert Zoellick speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, while at 1630GMT, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at the Lousiville branch of the Bank on the subject of "The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy." Later, at 1800GMT, the latest Federal Open Market Committee Minutes are released.

Yesterday the euro fell to the lowest in almost four months versus the dollar as talks to form a Greek government failed, fueling concern the nation may leave the shared currency and boosting investor demand for safety. Greek President Karolos Papoulias’ meeting in Athens with political leaders failed to produce a government after an inconclusive May 6 vote. He called for a meeting  to form a caretaker government to lead the country until the vote. A second election threatened to extend the country’s political gridlock and reignited speculation Greece will renege on its pledges to cut spending, required by the terms of its 240 billion euros ($306 billion) in bailouts. It added to bets Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will worsen.

The euro gained earlier after the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said gross domestic product in the region stagnated in the first quarter compared with the prior three months. Germany’s 0.5 percent expansion at five times the pace economists had estimated helped offset weaker GDP in the euro area’s peripheral economies.

Sterling reached the strongest level against the euro since November 2008 as investors sought an alternative to the 17- nation currency. The pound gained 0.1 percent, erasing earlier losses, to 79.60 pence per euro before trading little changed at 79.72 pence.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell to a figure, lowered below $1.2800.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair fell to a figure, lowered below $1.6000.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair rose above Y80.00.

European data for Wednesday starts at 0600GMT with German wholesale prices data and also ACEA new car registrations data. EMU data at 0900GMT includes the March trade balance as well as the final reading for April HICP. At 1300GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to give the welcome address at an ECB colloquium in honour of Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, in Frankfurt. The Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report is due at 0930GMT with Governor Mervyn King leading the usual press conference. US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA mortgage applications data, while at 1230GMT, the pace of housing starts is expected to rise to 685,000 in April after slowing in the previous two months. Canadian manufacturing data is due at the same time. US data continues at 1315GMT when industrial production is expected to rise 0.6% in April after holding steady in February and March. The weekly EIA weekly crude oil stocks data is then due, at 1430GMT. At 1545GMT, World Bank President Robert Zoellick speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, while at 1630GMT, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at the Lousiville branch of the Bank on the subject of "The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy." Later, at 1800GMT, the latest Federal Open Market Committee Minutes are released.

Asian stocks fell as the political impasse in Greece added to speculation the nation will leave the euro union and Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Italian banks ahead of a report that may show Europe’s economy shrank.

Nikkei 225 8,900.74 -73.10 -0.81%

S&P/ASX 200 4,266.3 -30.69 -0.71%

Shanghai Composite 2,361.17 -19.56 -0.82%

Nippon Sheet Glass Co., a glassmaker that counts Europe as its No. 1 market, slumped 1 percent in Tokyo after saying it may continue to suspend some production in Europe this year on slumping demand.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, declined 2.2 percent in Sydney after metal prices fell.

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., the mainland’s biggest developer by market value, fell 1 percent in Hong Kong after a report Shanghai tightened home-purchase restrictions.

Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 2: Y81.00 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Y80.50/55 (area of May 2-3 high)

The current price: Y80.36

Support 1: Y80.15 (session low)

Support 2: Y79.95 (high of the Asian session on May 15)

Support 3: Y79.65 (May 14 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9525 (Jan 16 low)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9495 (Jan 18 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9455 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9443

Support 1: Chf0.9425 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9375 (high of the Asian session on May 15)

Support 3: Chf0.9330 (May 15 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6115/20 (area of May 14-15 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6050 (May 14 low)

Resistance 1 : $1.6000 (session high)

The current price: $1.5963

Support 1 : $1.5935 (Apr 11 high)

Support 2 : $1.5895 (Apr 18 low)

Support 3 : $1.5860 (Apr 17 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2870 (May 15 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.2815 (low of the Asian session on May 15)

Resistance 1 : $1.2740 (session high)

The current price: $1.2708

Support 1 : $1.2700 (psychological level)

Support 2 : $1.2650/60 (area of Jan 11 and 17 low)

Support 3 : $1.2625 (low of January)

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,900.74 -73.10 -0.81%

S&P/ASX 200 4,266.3 -30.69 -0.71%

Shanghai Composite 2,361.17 -19.56 -0.82%

FTSE 100 5,437.62 -27.90 -0.51%

CAC 40 3,039.27 -18.72 -0.61%

DAX 6,401.06 -50.91 -0.79%

Dow 12,632 -63 -0.50%

Nasdaq 2,894 -9 -0.30%

S&P 500 1,331 -8 -0.57%

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,542 -19 -1.19%

Oil 93.22 -1.56 -1.65%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2733 -0,72%

GBP/USD $1,5997 -0,62%

USD/CHF Chf0,9432 +0,73%

USD/JPY Y80,23 +0,46%

EUR/JPY Y102,17 -0,25%

GBP/JPY Y128,34 -0,15%

AUD/USD $0,9937 -0,18%

NZD/USD $0,7691 -1,03%

USD/CAD C$1,0065 +0,37%

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence May -1.6%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter I +1.0% +0.9%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter I +3.6% +3.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count April 3.6 4.9

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate April 4.9% 5.0%

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate March 8.3% 8.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y March +1.1% +1.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y March +1.6% +1.4%

09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) May 2.1

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI April +1.3% +0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (finally) April +2.7% +2.6%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y April +1.6% +1.5%

09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. March 3.7 4.3

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks -

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report Quarter II

11:00 U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications May +1.7%

12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) March -0.3% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln April 0.747 0.730

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln April 0.654 0.680

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) April 0.0% +0.6%

13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization April 78.6% 78.9%

14:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

14:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change -

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes -

20:00 U.S. Treasury Currency Report May

22:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) April -1.0%

22:45 New Zealand PPI Input (QoQ) Quarter I +0.5% 0.0%

22:45 New Zealand PPI Output (QoQ) Quarter I +0.1% +0.2%

23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (preliminary) Quarter I -0.2% +0.9%