CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 04-11-2011

The euro fell against the dollar, poised for its biggest weekly loss in almost two months, as Group of 20 leaders failed to agree on funding to support European governments’ efforts to contain their debt crisis. The euro pared its declines as commodities reversed a retreat.

The dollar rose against 13 of its 16 most-traded counterparts after the Commerce Department reported the U.S. unemployment rate fell while nonfarm payrolls expanded less than forecast. The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major trade partners including the euro and yen, rose 0.4 percent to 77.067. The U.S. currency has strengthened 2.6 percent against the euro this week, its biggest five-day gain in almost two months, as investors sought safety amid concern Greece is headed for default and the sovereign-debt crisis will cause euro-area growth to contract.

Canada’s currency tumbled after the nation’s employers unexpectedly eliminated jobs. Employment in Canada fell by 54,000 jobs last month after an increase of 60,900 in September, the nation’s statistics agency reported today. Two days ago, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney reiterated the outlook for the Canadian economy has weakened since July.

The Australian dollar fell for the first time in three days after the Reserve Bank lowered its forecasts for economic growth and inflation forecasts for the next two years as global financial turmoil makes businesses more reluctant to hire.

European stocks fell, capping the first weekly decline in six weeks, after the Group of 20 failed to agree on boosting the International Monetary Fund’s resources and German factory data fueled concern the region is slipping into recession.

Global policy makers are awaiting more details of a week- old rescue package before they commit fresh cash to the IMF which could then lend to Europe’s bailout facility, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the end of a G-20 summit in Cannes, France. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said it may take until February for a deal.

German factory orders unexpectedly plunged in September as demand from the euro region slumped, adding to signs the debt crisis is damping growth in Europe’s largest economy. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 4.3 percent from August, when they dropped 1.4 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said in a statement today. It’s the third straight month orders have declined.

National benchmark indexes retreated in all but three of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 dropped 2.3 percent and Germany’s DAX declined 2.7 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 slid 0.3 percent.

Alcatel-Lucent SA, France’s largest telecommunications equipment maker, slumped to the lowest price in more than two years as it cut its full-year profit margin forecast.

Commerzbank AG dropped 6.3 percent after reporting a bigger- than-estimated quarterly loss on Greek-debt writedowns.

Fiat SpA, Italy’s biggest automaker, lost 5.5 percent to 4.14 euros as a gauge of European carmakers was the worst performer of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, sliding 3.5 percent.

Hermes International SCA, the French maker of Birkin bags and silk scarves, advanced 3.1 percent to 252.20 euros after raising its full-year revenue growth target to a range of 15 percent to 16 percent at constant exchange rates, from its previous forecast for an increase of as much as 14 percent.

Lundin Petroleum AB rose 2.6 percent to 173.50 kronor, the highest price since at least September 2001.

Rheinmetall AG, the maker of defense equipment and car parts, jumped 5.8 percent to 37.15 euros after Juergen Pieper, an analyst at Bankhaus Metzler, upgraded the company’s shares to “buy” from “sell.”

U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index toward its first weekly drop since September, as concern about European financing offset an unexpected decrease in the American unemployment rate.

Global stocks slumped as the Group of 20 nations failed to agree on increasing the resources of the International Monetary Fund, dashing the hopes of European governments keen to tap more foreign aid. In the U.S., the unemployment rate fell to a six- month low of 9 percent from 9.1 percent, even as the labor force expanded. The 80,000 increase in payrolls followed gains in the prior two months that were revised up by 102,000.

Dow 11,886.60 -157.87 -1.31%, Nasdaq 2,670.43 -27.54 -1.02%, S&P 500 1,244.37 -16.78 -1.33%

All 10 groups in the S&P 500 retreated as financial and industrial companies had the biggest declines. A measure of financial stocks had the biggest decline in the S&P 500 among 10 industries, falling 2.1 percent, as European lenders sank. Bank of America dropped 4.1 percent to $6.63. JPMorgan Chase & Co. declined 2.5 percent to $33.53.

AIG tumbled 4.9 percent to $23.42. The quarterly loss casts doubt on the insurer’s ability to benefit from more than $25 billion in assets that can be used to lower future tax bills. The company posted a $4.11 billion third-quarter loss that wiped out profit from the first six months of the year.

LinkedIn Corp. tumbled 9.1 percent to $79.52 as spending on research and development drove the professional-networking website to a loss. The company, which first sold shares to the public in May, is increasing spending on research, sales and marketing, and office expansions to boost the company’s global presence and attract more recent college graduates to the site.

Starbucks Corp. rallied 7 percent to $44.30. The world’s largest coffee-shop operator, said fourth-quarter profit rose 29 percent as U.S. sales increased. Chief Executive Officer Howard Schultz has sought to boost sales by selling Via instant coffee that customers can brew at home.

Oil fell from a three-month high as the Group of 20 nations failed to agree on boosting the resources of the International Monetary Fund to fight Europe’s debt crisis and as U.S. payrolls rose less than expected.

Oil declined as much as 1.2 percent after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said governments are awaiting further details of Europe’s week-old rescue package before they commit cash. Nonfarm payrolls increased 80,000 in October according to a Labor Department report, less than the 95,000 median estimate by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Crude oil for December delivery fell to $92.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, futures touched $94.93, the highest intraday price since Aug. 2. Prices have risen 1.9 percent this year.

Brent oil for December settlement slipped 26 cents to $110.57 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

• EZ bank recap has been recognized and will be resourced. US gave ideas, stands ready to assist.

• EZ agrees with US need to send clear signal they are committed to the Euro, begins with agreeing action plan

• G20 efforts mirror US dom efforts. Jobs numbers were positive but econ is growing way too slow.

• Europe remains on track, FinMins to carry the work forward next wk. US will do our part to support Europe partners. Agreed to remain focused on growth and each do their part.

Offers seen at Y78.45/50, more at Y78.65/70. Support on the downside remains at Y77.90 where talk of large

bids are forming.

World markets are mixed: Nikkei  +1.86%, Hang Seng +3.12%, Shanghai Composite +0.81%, FTSE  +0.45%, CAC  -0.20%, DAX  -0.82%.

 Crude oil: $94.55 per barrel (+0,5%).

Currently FTSE 5,579 +33.04 +0.60%, CAC  3,193 -2.41 -0.08%, DAX  6,105 -28.02 -0.46%.

Resistance 3: Y79.50 (Oct 31 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.00 (Nov 1 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.40 (Nov 2 high)

Current price: Y78.02

Support 1:Y77.90 (Nov 3 low)

Support 2:Y77.55 (50.0 % FIBO Y75.55-Y79.55)

Support 3:Y77.10 (61.8 % FIBO Y75.55-Y79.55)

Nikkei 225 8,801 +160.98 +1.86%

Hang Seng 19,843 +600.29 +3.12%

S&P/ASX 4,281 +109.31 +2.62%

Shanghai Composite 2,528 +20.20 +0.81%

The 17-nation euro yesterday advanced after Papandreou scrapped a referendum on an accord with the European Union after it split his party, roiled markets and drew warnings from euro leaders that it may cost Greece its membership in the 17-nation currency area.

The dollar held a two-day drop versus the euro before data forecast to show U.S. jobs growth slowed and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to consider monetary easing.

U.S. payrolls expanded by 95,000 workers last month after a 103,000 increase in September, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of today’s data from the Labor Department. The jobless rate was 9.1 percent for a fourth consecutive month, the report may also show.

EUR/USD: on Asian session the pair the pair falling.

GBP/USD: on Asian session the pair decreased.

USD/JPY: on Asian session the pair holds above Y78.00.

Asian stocks declined as European leaders withheld aid to Greece after the country said it will hold a referendum on a bailout package and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its forecast for the world’s biggest economy.

European stocks advanced after the euro-area central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate and Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou signaled he won’t call a referendum on the latest bailout package.

The ECB unexpectedly cut interest rates as Italian and Spanish borrowing costs soared after euro-area leaders raised the prospect of Greece leaving the monetary union. ECB officials, meeting under the presidency of Mario Draghi for the first time, cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent.

Papandreou signaled he won’t call a referendum calling into question Greece’s membership of the euro, saying he will reach out to the opposition about forming a transitional government.

The Greek prime minister said the country belongs in the currency bloc and welcomed support shown by the main opposition New Democracy party for last week’s rescue agreement agreed with EU leaders in Brussels.

National benchmark indexes gained in 17 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 rallied 2.7 percent and Germany’s DAX climbed 2.8 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 1.1 percent.

National Bank of Greece SA led the country’s lenders higher, it rose 11 percent to 1.80 euros. Alpha Bank SA climbed 15 percent to 1.07 euros. Piraeus Bank SA rallied 10 percent to 23.6 euro cents. Banks rose throughout Europe, with BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank, advancing 7.5 percent to 31.92 euros. Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-largest lender, added 5.5 percent to 1.75 euros.

Swiss Re Ltd. and Man Group Plc gained more than 2 percent after reporting better-than-expected earnings.

Swiss Re rose 6.1 percent to 49 Swiss francs. The world’s second-biggest reinsurer said third-quarter profit more than doubled to $1.35 billion. That beat the $539 million average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Man Group gained 2.4 percent to 144.7 pence. The biggest publicly traded hedge-fund manager reported a smaller-than- forecast decline in pretax profit in the fiscal first half. Pretax profit dropped to $195 million in the six months through September from $227 million in the year-earlier period, the London-based company said. Man forecast pretax profit of $185 million.

Cable & Wireless Communications jumped 7.8 percent to 39.33 pence. The company said first-half net income before exceptional items rose 9 percent to $163 million. The company also said restructuring is ahead of schedule.

Aker Solutions ASA surged 10 percent to 67.15 kroner. Norway’s biggest oil platform maker said third-quarter net income more than tripled to 1.12 billion kroner ($200 million) as it booked a gain after separating out Kvaerner ASA.

ING Groep NV rallied 9.4 percent to 6.18 euros. The biggest financial-services company in the Netherlands said it plans to cut 11 percent of the jobs at its Dutch bank and posted third- quarter earnings that surpassed analysts’ estimates.

Tenaris SA soared 15 percent to 12.85 euros. The world’s largest maker of seamless pipes said third-quarter profit rose 7 percent on higher demand in the U.S. and Europe and increased prices.

Rheinmetall AG tumbled 7.6 percent to 35.12 euros. The maker of KS Kolbenschmidt engine pistons and a partner in Germany’s Puma battle tank said it won’t stage an initial public offering of its automotive unit, citing stock-market declines. Rheinmetall’s third-quarter earnings before interest and taxes rose to 76 million euros, missing analyst estimates.

The euro rose versus the dollar and yen after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou signaled he won’t call for a referendum on a bailout package, easing concern voters would reject it and send the nation into default. Papandreou reached out to his political opposition about setting up a transitional government, indicating an accord would secure aid and remove the need for a referendum on euro membership.

The 17-nation currency earlier approached a three-week low versus the greenback after the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate to 1.25 percent and said Europe is heading toward a “mild recession.”

The dollar dropped as stocks and commodities rallied, damping demand for haven assets.

The euro gained 0.8 percent to $1.3850 at 1:50 p.m. in New York, after falling as much as 0.7 percent. It dropped to $1.3609 on Nov. 1, the weakest since Oct. 12.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair rose.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair holds in range Y77.90-Y78.10.

Resistance 3: Y80.20 (Aug 4 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.50 (Oct 31 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.45 (session high)

The current price: Y78.03

Support 1:Y77.95 (Nov 2 low)

Support 2: Y77.55 (50.0% FIBO Y75.55-Y79.55)

Support 3: Y77.10 (61.8% FIBO Y75.55-Y79.55)

Comments: the pair holds in range.

Resistance 3: Chf0.8890 (Nov 3 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8855 (resistance line from Nov 1)

Resistance 1: Chf0.8820 (MA(233) H1)

The current price: Chf0.8790

Support 1: Chf0.8750 (support line from Nov 1)

Support 2: Chf0.8715 (61.8% FIBO Chf0.8960-Chf0.8565)

Support 3: Chf0.8670 (low of European session on Oct 31)

Comments: the pair is on downtrend. In focus resistance Chf0.8820.

Resistance 3: $1.6150/65 (area of Oct 28-31 high)

Resistance 2: $1.6095 (Nov 1 high)

Resistance 1: $1.6050 (session high)

The current price: $1.6012

Support 1 : $1.6000 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5960 (MA(233) H1)

Support 3 : $1.5875 (Nov 3 low)

Comments: the pair advanced. In focus resistance $1.6050.

Resistance 3 : $1.4000 (61.8% FIBO $1.3605-$1.4245)

Resistance 2 : $1.3925 (50.0% FIBO $1.3605-$1.4245)

Resistance 1 : $1.3840 (session high)

The current price: $1.3815

Support 1 : $1.3765 (middle line of the channel from Nov 1)

Support 2 : $1.3685 (support line from Nov 1)

Support 3 : $1.3565 (Oct 11 low)

Comments: the pair is on uptrend. In focus resistance $1.3840.

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,640 -195.10 -2.21%

Hang Seng 19,243 -491.21 -2.49%

S&P/ASX 200 4,172 -12.83 -0.31%

Shanghai Composite 2,508 +3.98 +0.16%

FTSE 100 5,546 +61.54 +1.12%

CAC 40 3,195 +84.88 +2.73%

DAX 6,133 +167.55 +2.81%

Dow 11,836.04 +178.08 +1.53%

Nasdaq 2,639.98 +33.02 +1.27%

S&P 500 1,237.90 +19.62 +1.61%

10 Year Yield 2.01% +0.00 --

Oil $92.89 +0.38 +0.41%

Gold $1,738.70 +9.10 +0.53%

00:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement November

06:00 G20 Meetings

08:50 France Services PMI October 46.0 46.0

08:55 Germany Purchasing Manager Index Services October 52.1 52.1

09:00 Eurozone Purchasing Manager Index Services October 47.2 47.2

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM September -0.1% +0.3%

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) September +5.9% +5.9%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) September -1.4% +0.3%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) September +3.9% +7.5%

11:00 Canada Employment October 60.9K 20.3K

11:00 Canada Unemployment rate October 7.1% 7.2%

12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) September -10.4% +2.7%

12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls October 103K 98K

12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate October 9.1% 9.1%

12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings October +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings October +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Average workweek October 34.3 34.3

12:30 U.S. Average workweek October 34.3 34.3

14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index October 63.4