CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 07-11-2011

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The euro fell versus the yen and dollar as Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi faces a budget vote amid pressure to resign, stoking concern the region’s third-largest economy will struggle to manage its debt. Yields on Italy’s 10-year bonds jumped to as high as 6.68 percent, approaching the 7 percent level that drove Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts. The rise in Italian yields pushed the spread with the German securities to 491 basis points, also a euro-era record.

The shared currency briefly erased losses versus the greenback as the European Investment Bank told European finance ministers it could boost lending to businesses through banks. Italian government bonds dropped, pushing 10-year note yields to a euro-era high. The euro pared losses earlier after Il Foglio reported Berlusconi may step down and push for early elections. The prime minister later denied the report.

The franc fell after Swiss National Bank President Philipp Hildebrand said the central bank expects the currency to weaken further. Swiss inflation unexpectedly slowed to a negative rate in October, data today showed. Consumer prices decreased 0.1 percent from a year earlier after rising 0.5 percent in September, the Federal Statistics Office in Neuchatel said today. Economists forecast prices to rise 0.2 percent.

Sterling approached its strongest level in a month against the euro as investors sought an alternative investment to the 17-nation currency. The pound gained 0.3 percent to 85.74 pence per euro after rising 2 percent last week, the biggest increase since the five days through Jan. 7. It touched 85.59 cents, after reaching 85.48 on Nov. 1, the strongest since Oct. 4.

European stocks dropped, extending last week’s selloff, as Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi struggled to hold power before a budget vote and Greece worked on plans to form a new government.

In Italy, Berlusconi’s majority is unraveling before a key parliamentary vote tomorrow on the 2010 budget report as contagion from Europe’s sovereign debt crisis pushed the country’s borrowing costs to euro-era records. The yield on Italy’s 10-year bonds surged to as much as 6.68 percent today. Stocks pared losses as Berlusconi’s former spokesman Giuliano Ferrara said the Italian premier is likely to decide on his political future “within hours,” with his formal resignation coming next week after he secures parliamentary approval of austerity and economic-growth measures. Reports of his resignation were “totally unfounded,” Berlusconi said in an interview with newspaper Libero.

The Stoxx 600 dropped 3.7 percent last week after a failed attempt by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou to hold a referendum on the latest bailout package spurred concern Greece may default. Papandreou yesterday agreed to step down to allow the creation of a new national unity government intended to secure international financing and avert a collapse of the country’s economy.

National benchmark indexes fell in 10 of the 18 western European markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.3 percent while France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX Index lost 0.6 percent.

European retail sales fell more than forecast in September as the debt crisis prompted households to cut spending. Sales in the 17-nation euro region decreased 0.7 percent from August, the European Union’s statistics office said today. Carrefour SA fell 2.6 percent as euro-region retail sales fell and Citigroup Inc. downgraded the shares. Metro AG, Germany’s largest retailer, lost 2.1 percent, while Hennes & Mauritz AB slid 1.1 percent to 209.30 kronor in Stockholm.

PostNL NV slid 7.4 percent as the biggest Dutch postal operator said third-quarter operating profit fell 22 percent as domestic mail deliveries declined.

National Bank of Greece SA and Piraeus Bank SA advanced more than 4 percent in Athens.

We are premanantly watching the situation. If there is need for further action, the SNB will act.

U.S. stocks retreated, following the first weekly decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since September, as investors weighed prospects for political changes in Europe’s most-indebted countries.

Italian 10-year borrowing costs surged to a euro-era record as the focus shifted from Greece after Prime Minister George Papandreou agreed to step down to create a new unity government. Investors are betting Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi may be forced to resign if he fails to win majority support in tomorrow’s vote on the 2010 budget report.

Dow 11,888.87     -94.37 -0.79%, Nasdaq       2,651.25       -34.90 -1.30%, S&P 500    1,241.69       -11.54         -0.92%

Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Alcoa Inc. (AA) fell at least 1.5 percent, for the biggest losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Jefferies Group Inc., the investment bank that has battled investor concern that it will be hurt by Europe’s debt crisis, increased 1.7 percent after releasing details of its positions in sovereign bonds. The New York-based firm released a document summarizing its exposure to the debt of Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece. It also published a list of sovereign and government-guaranteed bonds from the five indebted nations in which Jefferies International Ltd. holds a position greater than half a million euros.

The world’s largest biotechnology company Amgen Inc. rose 4.7 percent on plans to buy back as much as $5 billion in common stock for $54-$60 per share.

Oil traded near a three-month high in New York as the prospect of new leadership at Europe’s most financially hard-hit countries allayed fears that the region’s debt crisis will damage the economy.

Futures rebounded from a 1.1 percent loss after a former spokesman for Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said that the premier may step down within “hours” and push for early elections. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou agreed to leave office to allow a national unity government to secure outside financing and avert a collapse of the country’s economy.

European finance chiefs were meeting in Brussels today to work on details of a plan to bulk out the region’s bailout fund. Investor concern that Italy will struggle to cut the region’s second-biggest debt load sent the yield on its 10-year bond to about 6.68 percent today. The nation’s parliament votes tomorrow on the 2010 budget report as two Berlusconi allies defected to the opposition last week and a third quit yesterday. Giuliano Ferrara, editor of newspaper Il Foglio and a former Berlusconi spokesman, reported that the premier may step down. Berlusconi later denied the report.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consumer, using 19.1 million barrels a day in 2010, or 21 percent of global consumption, according to BP Plc’s Statistical Review. China is the second-largest, accounting for about 11 percent and the European Union used 16 percent.

Crude for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was at $95.66 a barrel, after falling as low as $93.23. Oil in New York gained for a fifth week in the five trading days ended Nov. 4, the longest rising streak since the period ended April 3, 2009. Prices are up 3.8 percent this year.

Brent crude for December settlement was $1.34 higher at $113.31 a barrel. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $18.43 to New York crude, compared with $17.71 on Nov. 4 and a record settlement of $27.88 on Oct. 14.

• Need to see more concrete action from ez on firewall

• Italy situation shows needs credible debt plan

Gold futures rose to a six-week high as Europe’s escalating sovereign-debt crisis spurred demand for a haven.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s allies pressured him to step aside after contagion from the region’s fiscal woes pushed the nation’s borrowing costs to euro-era records. Gold jumped to a record $1,923.70 an ounce on Sept. 6 on demand for an alternative to equities and some currencies.

Berlusconi struggled to keep his allies in line after some lawmakers announced defections before critical parliamentary votes in coming days.

Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex in New York reached $1,784.80, the highest for a most-active contract since Sept. 22. Before today, the commodity climbed 24 percent this year.

• Italy must win back market confidence

• Next aid tranche for Greece not as urgent as thought

World markets: Nikkei  -0.39%, Hang Seng -0.83%, Shanghai Composite -0.73%, FTSE  -0.63%, CAC  -0.51%, DAX  -0.50%.

 Crude oil: $94.39 per barrel (+0,1%).

Data:

08:00 UK Halifax house price index (September) 1.2%

08:00 UK Halifax house price index (September) 3m Y/Y -1.8%

10:00 EU(17) Retail sales (September) adjusted -0.7%

10:00 EU(17) Retail sales (September) adjusted Y/Y -1.5%

11:00 Germany Industrial production (September) seasonally adjusted -2.7%

11:00 Germany Industrial production (September) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y 5.4%

The euro fell as Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi faces a budget vote amid pressure to resign, stoking concern the region’s third-largest economy will struggle to manage its debt load.

The euro also weakened as concern mounted that political instability in Italy may push bond yields to levels that will force the region’s second-most indebted nation to seek a rescue.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he will step down to make way for a coalition government and secure outside financing to avoid a collapse of the nation’s economy.

EUR/USD: the pair showed low in $1.3680 area then returned back to area $1,3760.

GBP/USD: the pair showed low in $1.5980 area then returned back above $1.6000.

USD/JPY: the pair decreased in Y78,00 area.

EUR/USD:

Offers $1.3800/10, $1.3850/60

Bids $1.3740

Resistance 3: Y79.00 (Nov 1 high)

Resistance 2: Y78.40 (Nov 2 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.20 (resistance line from Nov 2)

Current price: Y78.05

Support 1:Y77.90 (Nov 3 low) 

Support 2:Y77.55 (50.0 % FIBO Y75,55-Y79,55)

Support 3:Y77.10 (61.8 % FIBO Y75,55-Y79,55)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9120 (Oct 11 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9080 (Oct 20 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9030 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.8860

Support 1: Chf0.8930 (38,2% FIBO Chf0,8760-Chf0,9030)

Support 2: Chf0.8900 (50,0% FIBO Chf0,8760-Chf0,9030)

Support 3: Chf0.8860 (61,8% FIBO Chf0,8760-Chf0,9030, support  line from Oct 27)

Resistance 3: $ 1.6165 (Oct 31 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6090 (Nov 1 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.6060 (area of session high and Nov 3 high)

Current price: $1.6047

Support 1 : $1.5980 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5940   (support line from Oct 12, Nov 4 low)

Support 3 : $1.5890/70 (area of Oct 26, Nov 1 and 3 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.3920 (50,0 % FIBO $1,4240-$ 1,3610, МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.3850        (38,2 % FIBO $1,4240-$ 1,3610, session high, Nov 3 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.3780         (area of european session high)

Сurrent price: $1.3770

Support 1 : $1.3680 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3650   (Nov 3 low)

Support 3 : $1.3610   (Nov 1 low)

Nikkei 225 8,767 -34.31 -0.39%

Hang Seng 19,678 -164.90 -0.83%

S&P/ASX 4,273 -7.71 -0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,510 -18.49 -0.73%

00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) October -0.3%

The franc declined to a two-week low against the euro on speculation the Swiss National Bank will further limit the strength of its currency. Switzerland’s franc fell versus all major peers after SNB President Philipp Hildebrand said the central bank expects it to weaken further, adding to bets the bank will adjust the cap of 1.20 francs per euro set on Sept. 6.  Losses in the 17-nation currency were limited after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou agreed to step down to allow the creation of a national unity government.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou agreed to step down to allow the creation of a national unity government intended to secure international financing and avert a collapse of the country’s economy. Papandreou met with Antonis Samaras, leader of the main opposition party, and agreed to form a government to lead Greece “to elections immediately after the implementation of European Council decisions on October 26,” according to an e-mailed statement yesterday from the office of President Karolos Papoulias in Athens. Papandreou already stated he won’t lead the new government, the statement said.

EUR/USD: on Asian session the pair fell.

GBP/USD: on Asian session the pair decreased.

USD/JPY: on Asian session the pair holds in range Y78.05-Y78.20.

Asian stocks rose for the first time in five days as Greece scrapped a plan to hold a referendum on a bailout package and the European Central Bank cut interest rates, reducing concern the debt crisis will spur a credit crunch. Stocks tumbled in the last four days after Prime Minister George Papandreou announced on Oct. 31 a parliamentary confidence vote and his desire to hold a referendum on Europe’s rescue pact.

European stocks fell, capping the first weekly decline in six weeks, after the Group of 20 failed to agree on boosting the International Monetary Fund’s resources and German factory data fueled concern the region is slipping into recession.

Global policy makers are awaiting more details of a week- old rescue package before they commit fresh cash to the IMF which could then lend to Europe’s bailout facility, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the end of a G-20 summit in Cannes, France. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said it may take until February for a deal.

German factory orders unexpectedly plunged in September as demand from the euro region slumped, adding to signs the debt crisis is damping growth in Europe’s largest economy. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 4.3 percent from August, when they dropped 1.4 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said in a statement today. It’s the third straight month orders have declined.

National benchmark indexes retreated in all but three of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 dropped 2.3 percent and Germany’s DAX declined 2.7 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 slid 0.3 percent.

Alcatel-Lucent SA, France’s largest telecommunications equipment maker, slumped to the lowest price in more than two years as it cut its full-year profit margin forecast.

Commerzbank AG dropped 6.3 percent after reporting a bigger- than-estimated quarterly loss on Greek-debt writedowns.

Fiat SpA, Italy’s biggest automaker, lost 5.5 percent to 4.14 euros as a gauge of European carmakers was the worst performer of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, sliding 3.5 percent.

Hermes International SCA, the French maker of Birkin bags and silk scarves, advanced 3.1 percent to 252.20 euros after raising its full-year revenue growth target to a range of 15 percent to 16 percent at constant exchange rates, from its previous forecast for an increase of as much as 14 percent.

Lundin Petroleum AB rose 2.6 percent to 173.50 kronor, the highest price since at least September 2001.

Rheinmetall AG, the maker of defense equipment and car parts, jumped 5.8 percent to 37.15 euros after Juergen Pieper, an analyst at Bankhaus Metzler, upgraded the company’s shares to “buy” from “sell.”

On Monday the yen slumped the most since 2008 against the dollar as Japan stepped in to foreign-exchange markets to weaken the currency for the third time this year after its gain to a postwar record threatened exporters.The dollar rose against all its major peers after MF Global Holdings Ltd. filed for bankruptcy after making bets on European sovereign debt, driving stocks down and boosting refuge demand. The euro fell versus the dollar today after rising 1.8 percent last week as China’s official Xinhua News Agency said the nation can’t play the role of “savior” to Europe.

Resistance 3: Y80.20 (Aug 4 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.50 (Oct 31 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.45 (session high)

The current price: Y78.13

Support 1:Y77.95 (Nov 2 low)

Support 2: Y77.55 (50.0% FIBO Y75.55-Y79.55)

Support 3: Y77.10 (61.8% FIBO Y75.55-Y79.55)

Comments: the pair holds in range.

Resistance 3: Chf0.9080 (Oct 20 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9005 (high of American session on Oct 20)

Resistance 1: Chf0.8950/60 (area of Nov 1 high)

The current price: Chf0.8939

Support 1: Chf0.8890 (support line from Nov 4)

Support 2: Chf0.8830 (MA(233) H1)

Support 3: Chf0.8760/70 (area of Nov 3-4 low)

Comments: the pair is on uptrend. In focus resistance Chf0.8950/60.

Resistance 3: $1.6150/60 (area of Oct 28-31 high)

Resistance 2: $1.6095 (Nov 1 high)

Resistance 1: $1.6065 (session high)

The current price: $1.6018

Support 1 : $1.6005 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5945 (Nov 4 low)

Support 3 : $1.5875 (Nov 3 low)

Comments: the pair is corrected but remains in uptrend. In focus support $1.6005.

Resistance 3: $1.3925 (50.0% FIBO $1.3610-$1.4245)

Resistance 2: $1.3870 (Nov 4 high)

Resistance 1: $1.3830 (session high, MA(233) H1)

The current price: $1.3764

Support 1 : $1.3750 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3710 (Nov 4 low)

Support 3 : $1.3660 (Nov 3 low)

Comments: the pair is corrected but remains in uptrend. In focus support $1.3750.

00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) October -2.1% -0.3%

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate October 3.0% 3.0%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index October -0.5% +0.1%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y October -2.3.% -2.3%

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) October +0.3% +0.2%

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) October +0.5% +0.2%

09:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence November -18.5 -19.5

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) September -0.3% 0.0%

10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) September -1.0% -0.5%

11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) September -1.0% -0.7%

11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) September +7.7% +7.2%

13:40 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

17:45 Switzerland Gov Board Member Jordan Speak

20:00 U.S. Consumer Credit September -9.5 5.2