CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 09-09-2011

"The scope - and need - for further fiscal and monetary stimulus is clearly more constrained than in 2008, but additional measures on both counts are likely."

The euro fell to a six-month low versus the dollar and the yen rallied as Germany prepared plans to shore up the nation’s banks with credit-default swaps showing a more than 90 percent probability that Greece won’t meet its debt commitments.

The pair rebounds to $1.3690 area on intra-day profit-taking and as market squeezes a few shorts. Expect resistance at $1.3700 and $1.3720 areas.

Stops to $1.3630 erased now as euro skids to $1.3625 or so in early afternoon dealings, backdrop of weak US stocks adding to the risk-aversion theme even as traders shun the euro amid peripheral debt concerns. 

Cable low thus far around $1.5866 and support is eyed at $1.5850 though stops are said to build below. Cable last $1.5883.

"Consensus forecasts another strong gain in wholesale inventories for July. The report may have implications for our bean-count estimate of Q3 GDP growth. Recent data-in particular, consumer spending and net trade-point to upside risk to our current GDP forecast of 1%. Consensus: +0.7%."

• Stark cited 'personal reasons' for resignation;
  
• Stark to stay on until successor appointed;
  
• Stark's successor likely appointed by end of this year

Rate breaks below $1.3800, the move brushing aside another reported barrier level, but as expected profit take buys quickly emerge to soak up stops and seen cushioning the initial move around $1.3790.
Next support seen at $1.3770 ahead of March lows in the area between $1.3755/45. Break under will target bids located near $1.3715/00, ahead of $1.3685/80. Offers remain around $1.3835/50.

EUR/USD $1.3750, $1.3900, $1.4000, $1.4060, $1.4100.
USD/JPY Y76.50, Y77.00, Y77.25, Y77.55, Y78.25
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.5955, $1.5800
EUR/GBP stg0.8800
GBP/JPY Y124.50
USD/CHF Chf0.8700
AUD/USD $1.0630, $1.0750

U.S. stocks were set to open lower Friday, as investors digest speeches from President Obama and Fed chair Ben Bernanke.
The economy took center stage Thursday, as President Obama made an attempt to fill the stimulus void, unveiling a plan that he says will boost hiring and provide a jolt to the stalled economy if it becomes law. A mix of $253 billion in tax cuts and $194 billion in new spending, the total bill for the plan is $447 billion.
Investors were also still mulling over also Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's speech.
Bernanke reiterated previous statements that the central bank stands ready to use certain "tools" to help stimulate the economy. But he offered no indication as to which of those tools the Fed is, or is not, prepared to use.
Economy: July wholesale inventory figures will be released at 14:00 GMT. Economists expect wholesale inventories rose 0.7%, after rising 0.6% in June.
Companies: Retailer Lululemon Athletica (LULU) beat analysts expectations, reporting quarterly earnings of 26 cents per share. But shares of the retailer dropped more than 7% on weak guidance.
Kroger (KR, Fortune 500) will also report quarterly results before the opening bell. The supermarket chain is expected to earn 43 cents per share.
Shares of Texas Instruments (TXN, Fortune 500) were down more than 2% in premarket trading after the company lowered its outlook after the closing bell Thursday.
Shares of Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) edged lower, after a Wall Street Journal report said that the bank may increase layoffs to 40,000 from the 30,000 job cuts previously reported.
World markets:

Oil for October delivery slipped $1.20 to $87.85 a barrel.
Gold futures for December delivery fell $16 to $1,841.50 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury remained little changed, with the yield at 1.99%.

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.3820, $1.3850, $1.3870/80, $1.3900/05, $1.3920
Bids: $1.3770, $1.3755/45, $1.3715/00, $1.3685/80

"Obama's speech last night proposed a larger than anticipated stimulus relying heavily on tax cuts and thus potentially more likely to receive broader support in the US Congress. Market commentary already indicates that, if approved, the stimulus package could more than offset the impact of the fiscal cuts planned for 2012."

Data released:
06:00     Germany     CPI (August) final    0.0%    -0.1%    0.4%
06:00     Germany     CPI (August) final Y/Y    2.4%    2.3%    2.4%
06:00     Germany     HICP (August) final Y/Y    2.5%    2.4%    2.6%
06:00     Germany     Wholesale prices (August)    0.1%    -    -0.6%
06:00     Germany     Wholesale prices (August) Y/Y    6.5%    -    8.2%
06:45     France     Industrial production (July)    1.5%    -0.4%    -1.6%
06:45     France     Industrial production (July) Y/Y    3.7%    2.1%    2.1%
08:00     Italy     GDP (Q2) final    0.3%    0.3%    0.3%
08:00     Italy     GDP (Q2) final Y/Y    0.8%    0.8%    0.8%
08:30     UK     PPI (Output) (August) unadjusted    0.1%    0.1%    0.2%
08:30     UK     PPI (Output) (August) unadjusted Y/Y    6.1%    6.0%    5.9%
08:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (August) adjusted    0.2%    0.1%    0.3%
08:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (August) unadjusted Y/Y    3.6%    -    3.3%
08:30     UK     PPI (Input) (August) adjusted    -1.9%    -1.5%    0.6%
08:30     UK     PPI (Input) (August) unadjusted Y/Y    16.2%    16.9%    18.5%
11:00     Canada     Employment (August)    -5.5K    +31K    +7.1K
11:00     Canada     Unemployment rate (August)    7.3%    7.3%    7.2%

EUR/USD printed lows on $1.3782 before gained back to $1.3835.
GBP/USD  Rate manages to recover back to $1.5910. Resistance noted back up at $1.5950. Support now seen at $1.5885/80 ahead of $1.5870 and $1.5850.
USD/JPY Lifts to Y77.80, with reported stops above Y77.75 triggered though any follow through countered by exporter sales. Fresh offers seen at Y77.85/90 ahead of Y78.10. Bids remain at Y77.45/40.

Canada's labor market data will be released at 11:00 GMT with US wholesale inventories - at 14:00 GMT.

 Rate manages to recover back to $1.5910. Resistance noted back up at $1.5950. Support now seen at $1.5885/80 ahead of $1.5870 and $1.5850. ahead of $1.5990.

Lifts to Y77.80, with reported stops above Y77.75 triggered though any follow through countered by exporter sales. Fresh offers seen at Y77.85/90 ahead of Y78.10. Bids remain at Y77.45/40.

Aug unemployment 7.3% (Jul 7.2%)

• Global cooling to impact German economy;
  
• Germany to continue on budget consolidation plan

• Global cooling to impact German economy;
  
• Germany to continue on budget consolidation plan

The revisions come despite US President Obama's $447bln jobs package.

• UK Aug Output PPI +0.1% m/m; +6.1% y/y;
  
• UK Aug Input PPI -1.9% m/m; +16.2% y/y;
  
• UK Aug Core Output PPI +0.2% m/m; +3.6% y/y
  

GBP/USD
Offers: $1.6000/10, $1.6040/50
Bids: $1.5950, $1.5915/10

USD/JPY
Offers: Y77.60/75

AUD/USD
Offers: $1.0630

Majors close

Hang Seng  19,913 -135.18 -0.67%
Shanghai Composite  2,499 -17.15 -0.68%
FTSE  5,340 +21.79 +0.41% 
CAC 3,086 +12.65 +0.41%
DAX 5,408 +2.93 +0.05%

Japanese stocks rose for a second day as the earnings outlook for Asian exporters brightened on President Barack Obama’s plan to inject more than $300 billion into the U.S. economy and signs Europe’s debt crisis is easing.
Inpex Corp. (1605) gained 4.5 percent as oil traded near the highest close in more than a month.
Tokyo Electron Ltd. (8035) gained 3 percent after a jump by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks the performance of 30 industry stocks.
Fanuc Corp. (6954) dropped 3.4 percent after Japan’s machine orders fell more than economists expected.
Stocks also rose after Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi won a confidence vote on austerity measures and Germany’s top court rejected challenges to the participation of Europe’s largest economy in euro-rescue funds, easing concern about Europe’s debt crisis.
Exporters rose. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) rose 0.8 percent. Nintendo Co. rose 1.9 percent.
Gains in stocks were limited after Japan’s Cabinet Office reported that machine orders fell 8.2 percent in July after rising 7.7 percent in June. The median forecast of economists was for a 4.2 percent decline.

European stocks climbed, extending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s largest rally in three weeks, as oil producers and retailers advanced.
Total SA (FP) and Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) advanced at least 2.5 percent as oil rose.
KBC Groep NV rallied 5.9 percent following a report that Banco Santander SA (SAN) seeks to buy KBC’s Polish unit.
Home Retail Group Plc (HOME) gained 2 percent after saying the sales decline at its Argos chain slowed.
The central bank cut its growth forecasts for this year and next and President Jean-Claude Trichet said the region’s economy faces “particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks,” at a press conference in Frankfurt.
In the U.K., Bank of England policy makers resisted calls to extend economic stimulus as they attempted to navigate a path between accelerating inflation and a faltering recovery.
The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by Mervyn King, maintained the target of its bond program at 200 billion pounds ($320 billion) as forecasted.

U.S. stocks fell Thursday after Ben Bernanke made a speech that failed to knock investors' socks off.
Companies: The Men's Warehouse (MW) reported a 34% jump in second-quarter earnings compared with last year. Despite the strong performance, shares of the clothier fell 10%.
AOL (AOL) stayed in the spotlight as its TechCrunch fiasco continued. Inside sources say TechCrunch's founder Michael Arrington will be fired, in the aftermath of his launching a new venture capital fund - CrunchFund. Shares of AOL ended the day down slightly less than 1%.
Shares of Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) were among the weakest performers on the Dow.
But strength in the technology and consumer staples sectors helped support the index.
Cisco, (CSCO, Fortune 500) Microsoft, (MSFT, Fortune 500) Kraft (KFT, Fortune 500) and Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) were all higher.
Economy: Filings for first-time unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to 414,000 in the week ending Sept. 2, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That was up from the 409,000 claims filed the week before, and worse than the 400,000 claims economists had expected.
The U.S. trade gap narrowed to $44.8 billion in July, led by a surge in exports. Trade balance figures were expected to show the deficit widened to $51.5 billion in July, from $53.1 billion in June.
On the European front, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank opted to keep their key interest rates unchanged.

Data released:
06:00     Germany     Current account (July) unadjusted, bln    7.5    9.5    11.5 (11.9)
06:00     Germany     Trade balance (July) unadjusted, bln    10.4    11.0    12.7
11:00     UK     BoE meeting announcement    0.50%    0.50%    0.50%
11:45     EU(17)     ECB meeting announcement    1.50%    1.50%    1.50%
12:30     EU(17)     ECB press conference               
12:30     USA     Jobless claims (week to 03.09)    414K    405K    412 (409)K
12:30     USA     International trade (July), bln    -44.8    -50.0    -51.6 (-53.1)
12:30     USA     Export (July), bln    178.0    -    170.9
12:30     USA     Import (July), bln    222.8    -    223.9
19:00     USA     Consumer credit (July), bln    +12.0    +6.0    +11.3 (+15.5)
20:30     USA     M2 money supply (29.08), bln    +30.4    -    +17.9
23:50     Japan     Real GDP (Q2) revised    -0.5%    -0.5%    -0.3%
23:50     Japan     Real GDP (Q2) revised Y/Y    -2.1%    -2.0%    -1.3%
23:50     Japan     (M2+CDs) money supply (August) Y/Y    2.7%    2.9%    3.0 (2.9)%

The Australian dollar trimmed yesterday’s 1.7% surge against its U.S. counterpart after the statistics bureau said that employers unexpectedly shed jobs for a second consecutive month in August. The number of people employed fell by 9,700, compared with the median estimate for a 10,000 increase. The jobless rate climbed to 5.3%, the highest since October, from 5.1% in July.

EUR/USD printed lows on $1.4050 before set stable between the $1.4060/90 range. But soon psales resumed and rate fell to $1.3880.
GBP/USD tested $1.5920 before recovered to $1.5942 and later - to $1.6080. Rate failed to set above and retreated to $1.5950.
USD/JPY fell from Y77.42 to Y77.29. Later dollar printed highs on Y77.60.

UK PPI data coming at 08:30 GMT. The same time UK Jul trade balance figures will come.
Canada's labor market data will be released at 11:00 GMT with US wholesale inventories - at 14:00 GMT.

Resistance 2: Y78.50

Support 1:Y77.05/10

Resistance 2: Chf0.8950   
Resistance 2: Chf0.8800   
Resistance 1: Chf0.8770

Support 2: $1.5860
Support 3: $1.5770
Comments: Pound weakens. Support is near $1.5910 (yesterday's lows). Below there is a way down to $1.5860. Stronger level - at $1.5780 (Jul 12 lows). Resistance is near $1.5990 (overnight high). Break above targets Sep 01 lows at $1.6060/70 (also channel line from Aug 29) and then - to $1.6130 (Sep 05 low).

Hang Seng  19,913 -135.18 -0.67%
Shanghai Composite  2,499 -17.15 -0.68%
FTSE  5,340 +21.79 +0.41% 
CAC 3,086 +12.65 +0.41%
DAX 5,408 +2.93 +0.05%

06:00     Germany     CPI (August) final         -0.1%    0.4%
06:00     Germany     CPI (August) final Y/Y         2.3%    2.4%
06:00     Germany     HICP (August) final Y/Y         2.4%    2.6%
06:45     France     Industrial production (July)         -0.4%    -1.6%
06:45     France     Industrial production (July) Y/Y         2.1%    2.1%
08:00     Italy     GDP (Q2) final         0.3%    0.3%
08:00     Italy     GDP (Q2) final Y/Y         0.8%    0.8%
08:30     UK     PPI (Output) (August) unadjusted         0.1%    0.2%
08:30     UK     PPI (Output) (August) unadjusted Y/Y         6.0%    5.9%
08:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (August) adjusted         0.1%    0.3%
08:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (August) unadjusted Y/Y         -    3.3%
08:30     UK     PPI (Input) (August) adjusted         -1.5%    0.6%
08:30     UK     PPI (Input) (August) unadjusted Y/Y         16.9%    18.5%
11:00     Canada     Employment (August)         +31K    +7.1K
11:00     Canada     Unemployment rate (August)         7.3%    7.2%
14:00     USA     Wholesale inventories (July)         0.8%    0.6%