CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 12-09-2011

Gainers
Symb     Last     Change     Chg %
MFW.N     24.25     +3.88     +19.05
DVR.N     2.68     +0.27     +11.20
IPHI.N     8.55     +0.65     +8.23
VPG.N     14.02     +0.82     +6.21
MXL.N     6.07     +0.34     +5.93
Losers
Symb     Last     Change     Chg %
NBG_pa.N     4.08     -1.22     -23.02
CTC.N     1.43     -0.27     -15.88
CEU.N     0.65     -0.09     -12.16
AG.N     20.02     -2.64     -11.65
BSI.N     4.99     -0.61     -10.89

The euro touched its lowest level since 2001 against the yen as speculation German Chancellor Angela Merkel is preparing for a Greek default curbed demand for the 17-nation currency.
The yen advanced against all its most-traded counterparts as demand for refuge increased and as the Swiss National Bank- imposed ceiling on the franc leaves Japan’s currency as one of the few haven assets. The euro weakened earlier to the lowest level versus the greenback since February after bets increased the European Central Bank may have to ease monetary policy to shore up the economy.
“One of the safe havens was taken away -- the Swiss franc -- and the yen is one of the remaining safe havens,” said Carl Forcheski, a director on the corporate currency sales desk in New York at Societe Generale SA. “It’s the uncertainty, the possibility that the ECB might have to respond to the crisis by loosening monetary policy, certainly that could hurt the euro and the market may be taking that into consideration.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 0.7 percent after falling as much as 1.1 percent. Crude oil futures rose 0.5 percent to $87.70 a barrel and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to a record low 1.8770 percent.
The yield on German bunds, Europe’s benchmark government debt securities, fell to a record 1.71 percent, while rates on Greek securities reached a record high and Italian and Spanish yields rose.
Merkel’s government is debating how to shore up German banks in the event that Greece fails to meet the budget-cutting terms of its aid package and is unable to get a bailout-loan payment, three officials said Sept. 9. Merkel is due to hold talks on the debt crisis with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso today.
Germany will decide on a course of action after receiving the results of a Greek progress report, a government spokesman said, speaking on the customary condition of anonymity.
BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole SA, France’s largest banks by market value, led European equity declines after two people with knowledge of the matter said Moody’s Investors Service may cut their credit ratings as soon as this week because of their Greek holdings.

Stocks continue to retrace their morning climb. The major equity averages aren't quite back to their morning lows, however.
Sellers' efforts appear to be balanced more toward cyclical plays. In turn, materials stocks are down 1.6%, industrials are down 1.5%, and energy plays are down 1.3%. That said, consumer discretionary stocks have managed to limit losses to less than 1%. Names like Amazon.com (AMZN 213.74, +2.35) and eBay (EBAY 29.07, +0.61), both Internet retailers, have helped the sector remain resilient.

• Say's if the hill doesnt act, families are going to pay more taxes next year.

EUR/USD: $1.3845USD/JPY: Y76.95, Y77.25, Y77.50, Y78.00, Y75.75
GBP/USD: $1.6000, $1.5955, $1.5800
EUR/GBP: stg0.8700
AUD/USD: $1.0600

U.S. stock futures tumbled, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will extend last week’s decline, as speculation Germany is preparing for a Greek default spurred turmoil in global financial markets.

• China oil demand has been weaker than expected in q3
• 2012 oil demnd grwth est. revised dwn 36k to +1.27m b/d
• Cuts 2011 us economic growth forecast to +1.6% from +1.8%

The euro dropped to its lowest level since 2001 against the yen and slid versus the dollar as speculation German Chancellor Angela Merkel is preparing for a Greek default curbed demand for the 17-nation currency.
“There’s a lot of chatter about Greece defaulting and either leaving or getting kicked out of the euro,” said Khoon Goh at ANZ National Bank Ltd.. “There’s event risk and uncertainty around whether or not the sovereign-debt crisis is reaching a point where things are going to boil over. The euro is coming off pretty aggressively.”
Officials in Merkel’s government are debating how to shore up German banks in the event that Greece fails to meet the budget-cutting terms of its aid package and is unable to get a bailout-loan payment. Merkel is due to hold talks on the debt crisis with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso today.
“It feels like Germany is preparing itself for a debt default,” Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said. “Fatigue is setting in. Germany could be a first mover or other countries could be preparing too.”

EUR/USD fell to $1.3492 before recovered to $1.3598.
GBP/USD weakened to $1.5790 and later rebounced to $1.5820.
USD/JPY fell from Y77.60 to Y76.74  and still holds around lows.

There is no key data in Europe.

EUR/USD: $1.3845
USD/JPY: Y76.95, Y77.25, Y77.50, Y78.00, Y75.75
GBP/USD: $1.6000, $1.5955, $1.5800
EUR/GBP: stg0.8700
AUD/USD: $1.0600

EUR/USD
Bids: $1.3495/90, $1.3480

GBP/USD
Bids: $1.5785/80, $1.5750

USD/JPY
Offers: Y77.75/85
Bids: Y76.50/55

EUR/GBP
Offers: stg0.8595/00

Japanese stocks snapped a two-day rally, extending losses for the week, on prospects Europe’s finance chiefs will face international calls today to contain their debt crisis before a gathering of Group of Seven nations.
Fanuc Corp. (6954) fell 7.6%, the biggest slide on the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average, after a report yesterday showed growth in Japan’s machine tool orders slowed.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) lost 0.7%.
Marubeni Corp. (8002) gained 3.2% and Toyota Tsusho Corp. (8015) rose 1.8% after SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. boosted equity ratings on the trading companies.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.6%. The Topix dropped 0.2%. For the week, the Nikkei fell 2.4%, while the Topix lost 1.8%.
Komatsu maintained losses after China’s inflation eased in August from a three-year high, giving policy makers more slack to pause monetary tightening. Consumer prices climbed 6.2% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
Among stocks that fell were Toyota, dropping 0.7%, and Nintendo Co., sliding 2.3%.
Marubeni gained 3.2% after SMBC Nikko raised its rating on the firm to “outperform” from “neutral,” saying favorable earnings may boost dividend payouts.
The brokerage also lifted Toyota Tsusho’s rating to “neutral” from “underperform,” saying earnings may rise as demand from carmakers increases and on better cost controls. Toyota Tsusho rose 1.8%.

European stocks fell for the first week in three amid concern policy makers won’t be able to stop the region’s sovereign debt crisis from growing and damaging the economic recovery.
Societe Generale SA and Banco Comercial Portugues SA (BCP) led a measure of European bank shares to the lowest since March 2009.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) and Barclays Plc (BARC) each sank 13% as 17 lenders were sued by the U.S. over the sale of mortgage-backed securities and interbank lending rates climbed.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on Sept. 8 said threats to the euro region have worsened and inflation risks have eased. Planned rescue loans to Greece have been put in doubt as countries including Finland demand the country provide collateral in exchange for the funds.
The cost of insuring against default on European financial companies rose to a record this week as the ECB comments added to concern lenders are finding it harder to access funding markets. Credit-default swaps on Greek government debt surged to an all-time high, signaling a 91 percent chance the nation will fail to meet debt commitments, after its economy shrank more than previously reported.
Porsche SE plunged 15% in the week and posted the worst decline in more than two years today after saying efforts to combine with Volkswagen AG by the end of 2011 had failed because of pending lawsuits. Preferred shares of Volkswagen, Europe’s largest automaker, slid 5%.
Verbund AG tumbled 16%, the most since 2008, after Austria’s biggest power company cut its guidance for 2011 and gave a “cautious” outlook for next year.
YIT Oyj, Finland’s biggest builder, slid 17% after saying excessive levels of ammonia were found in residential units it built in St. Petersburg, Russia.

U.S. stocks fell, erasing a weekly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, on speculation Greece may default on its debt and deepen an economic slowdown.
The S&P 500 has fallen as much as 18% from a three- year high on April 29 on concern about Europe’s debt crisis and an economic slowdown.
Questions over Greece’s ability to meet the terms of its rescue package are dogging the nation as bondholders weigh whether to participate in a debt exchange that’s crucial to a second bailout. The nation is seeking preliminary responses from bond investors to the proposed swap. Greece has no plans to publish details of anticipated participation in its debt-swap program this week or next, said Petros Christodoulou, head of the country’s debt management office.
Greece is committed to “full implementation” of its bailout agreement, the country’s finance ministry said in a statement. The country rejected default talk as “organized speculation,” according to the statement.
In a sign officials are increasingly split over the best way to fight Europe’s debt crisis, Juergen Stark resigned from the European Central Bank’s Executive Board. Stark stepped down after protesting the bank’s bond purchases on a conference call earlier this week, said a euro-area central bank official familiar with the meeting.
Stocks also fell on speculation Congress won’t pass President Barack Obama’s $447 billion plan to boost the economy. The president, speaking before a joint session of Congress yesterday, demanded six times that lawmakers act “right away” on a plan that would boost spending on infrastructure, stem teacher layoffs and cut in half the payroll taxes paid by workers and small business owners.
Benchmark gauges fell yesterday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke disappointed investors by not detailing new plans to boost growth in the world’s largest economy in a speech to economists in Minneapolis. Bernanke stopped short of signaling what he thinks is the Fed’s best option to aid the economy, repeating points from his speech on Aug. 26 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The S&P 500 may sink to as low as 970 because Wall Street analysts’ earnings estimates are too optimistic, according to MKM Partners LLC’s Michael Darda.
The 2012 forecast for S&P 500 company profits of about $108 a share may have to come down by as much as 30 percent, said Darda, chief market strategist at the Stamford, Connecticut- based research and trading firm. He cited the history of U.S. business cycles and the relationship between bond yields and earnings in making the prediction.

Resistance 3: Y78.50         

Resistance 1: Y77.45         

Support 1:Y76.85

Resistance 2: Chf0.9400
Resistance 2: Chf0.9010

Resistance 3:$1.3935/40
Resistance 2:$1.3720
Resistance 1:$1.3600
Current price: $1.3537
Support 1: $1.3500/90
Support 2: $1.3420
Support 3: $1.3380
Comments: Rate continues to weaken, holding under earlier broken trend line from May 04 at $1.3600 (resistance now). Support is near $1.350/90, stronger one - at $1.3420 (Feb 14 low, Dec 30'2010 high). Below losses may widen to $1.3380. Back above $1.3600 opens the way to $1.3720 (Friday's NY high). Further resistance comes at $1.3935/40 (Friday's high).

Japan shares are trading sharply lower in the final hour, with electronics weighing heavily.

Olympus Corp. (7733) is falling 5.88%, while Sony Corp. (6758) is down 3.28%.

Cement manufacturers are providing support, with Sumitomo Osaka Cement Co. (5232) as the biggest percentage gainer, up 3.96%.

The Nikkei is down 2.25% at 8541.42.

Hang Seng  19,867    -46.19 -0.23%   
Shanghai Composite  2,498    -1.19 -0.05%   
FTSE  5,215    -125.73 -2.35%   
CAC 2,975    -111.24 -3.60%   
DAX 5,190    -218.53 -4.04%

23:50     Japan     Corporate goods price index (August) domestic         -    0.2%
23:50     Japan     Corporate goods price index (August) domestic Y/Y         2.8%    2.9%
23:50     Japan     Tertiary activity index (July)         -    1.9%
23:50     Japan     BoJ meeting minutes (04-05.08)