CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 13-09-2011

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13.09.2011
19:01
Dow 11,100.32 +39.20 +0.35%, Nasdaq 2,529.75 +34.66 +1.39%, S&P 1,171.79 +9.52 +0.82%
18:40
Greenspan speaking against tax expenditures, saying they do not boost short-term growth much.
18:20
PIMCO: "Weekly retailer reports show continued growth at or below the economy's stall speed, which puts pressure on Washington to provide policy solutions to address the structural impediments to growth."
18:00
US: Aug Tsy budget -$134.2b
17:52
Dow 11,112.28 +51.16 +0.46%, Nasdaq 2,529 +33.71 +1.35%, S&P 1,173 +10.92 +0.94%
17:25
EUR/USD sets fresh high for the day at $1.3737 as US Stocks rise
17:04
MF Global about gold

"Volatility remains high as gold is attracting more day and high-frequency traders. As a result, gold is losing safe-haven status and some investors are liquidating positions to increase cash and/or put funds into US Treasuries."

16:58
European stocks close: FTSE 5,174 +44.63 +0.87%, CAC 2,895 +40.12 +1.41%, DAX 5,166 +94.03 +1.85%.

European stocks rose for the first time in three days, with the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index rebounding from a two-year low, as banking shares  advanced.
Today national benchmark indexes rose in every western-European market except Greece, Iceland and Norway. 
Societe Generale SA and Deutsche Bank AG jumped more than 8 percent. Chief Executive Officer os Societe Generale said that the bank has sufficient capital and liquidity, and that its balance sheet is solid.
Deutsche Boerse AG  jumped 3 percent after news that NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse plan to make about 200 million euros, or half of the proposed cost cuts from their combination.

16:19
Morgan Stanley have revised their euro forecast

MS' analistes have revised their euro forecast significantly lower and now expect the euro to declined to $1.30 by year-end and $1.25 in Q1 2012 (versus prior forecast of $1.36 and $1.38 respectively, before stabilizing in the second half of next year.

16:02
Crude oil holds slightly below $90

Crude oil rose on speculation a report tomorrow will show stockpiles dropped in the U.S., the biggest oil consuming country.

Crude retreated from its session high after the International Energy Agency cut global oil demand forecasts for this year and next as the economic recovery falters.

Currently crude oil for october delivery is at $89.06 per barrel (+0.91%).

15:29
IMF: "Long-term investors see low interest rate environment for some time"

rising risk of sharp investment reversals out of emerging markets

shocks to emerging market growth prospects may spark major capital flight

14:57
EUR/USD trades to $1.3680 now as DOW skids lower
14:40
Dow 11,069.18 +8.06 +0.07%, Nasdaq 2,511 +15.46 +0.62%, S&P 1,166.57 +4.30 +0.37%
14:09
GBP/USD rose at $1.5830 area

The meet resistance around $1.5850. Offers seen placed from this level and extending toward $1.5860, a break to open a move on toward $1.5870 (session high) ahead area of Monday's highs at $1.5890.

13:39
Option expiries for today's 14:00GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3800, $1.4000USD/JPY Y76.65, Y77.00, Y77.25, Y77.55, Y78.50
EUR/JPY Y108.30
AUD/USD  $1.0375, $1.0550

13:36
Dow 11,047.08 -14.04 -0.13%, Nasdaq 2,503.24 +8.15 +0.33%, S&P 1,163.59 +1.32 +0.11%
13:05
Before the bell: S&P futuresc -2.0, Nasdaq futures 0.00

U.S. stock-index futures resumed declines after a spokesman for French President Nicolas Sarkozy rejected reports of a new French-German initiative to resolve the Greek debt crisis.
Early morning strength in crude oil has extended into early pit trade, giving the energy component a 1.6% gain at $89.60 per barrel. Gold prices are up 0.9% to $1829 per ounce
Company news:
Shares of Bank of America BAC closed +1% after CEO Brian Moynihan told investors the company will seek $5B in annual cost cuts (about 18%) and slash 30K jobs. Moynihan was non-committal on pushing Countrywide into bankruptcy, and had "nothing new" to say about mortgage settlement talks. BAC -2.3% premarket.
Sources say Microsoft (MSFT) will likely raise its dividend 19% as early as this week - a disappointment to investors who want the tech giant to share more of its $52.8B cash hoard with shareholders.
At 1800GMT, the US Treasury is expected to post a $130.0 bn budget gap in August.

12:33
US: Aug import prices -0.4%; Export prices +0.5%
12:24
Germany Merkel: "Will take a long time to overcome debt crisis"
  • No rift in German govt over Greece aid
  • Must avoid developments getting out of control
12:14
European session:

Data:

08:30 UK HICP (August) 0.6%
08:30 UK HICP (August) Y/Y 4.5%
08:30 UK HICP ex EFAT (August) Y/Y 3.1%
08:30 UK Retail prices (August) 0.6%
08:30 UK Retail prices (August) Y/Y 5.2%
08:30 UK RPI-X (August) Y/Y - 5.0%
08:30 UK Trade in goods (July), bln -8.9
08:30 UK Non-EU trade (July), bln -5.5

The euro fell toward its weakest level in a decade against the yen on speculation Greece is nearing default and as Italy’s borrowing costs rose at a sale of 3.9 billion euros ($5.3 billion) of bonds.
The 17-nation currency reversed yesterday’s gain versus the dollar amid uncertainty China will buy Italian assets. 
Italy’s Treasury sold 3.9 billion euros of a new benchmark five-year bond at an average yield of 5.6 percent, compared with 4.93 percent on July 14, the last time securities of a similar maturity were sold. Demand was 1.28 times the amount on offer, compared with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.93 at the previous sale. The Treasury had aimed to sell a maximum of 4 billion euros.
The euro was boosted yesterday after an Italian government official said talks had been held with Chinese counterparts about potential investments in Europe’s third-largest economy. The purchase of Italian bonds was not the focus of the meetings, which took place in the past few weeks, the official said on condition of anonymity, without specifying which assets may be involved.

EUR/USD: holds at $1.3550-$ 1.3700.
GBP/USD: the pair showed low in $1.5760 area, later returned above $1.5800.
USD/JPY: the pair holds Y77.00 area.

US data starts at 1230GMT with the Import/Export Price Index. Increases in import prices may be moderate due to only a small change in petroleum costs, and smaller increases in items like foods and motor vehicles. Export prices should benefit from favorable exchange rates and demand for 
agricultural products. Finally, at 1800GMT, the US Treasury is expected to post a $130.0 bn budget gap in August.

11:44
Orders:

EUR/USD 
Offers $1.3745/50, $1.3715/20, $1.3700
Bids $1.3635/30, $1.3600, $1.3585/80, $1.3550

11:20
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y77.85/90 (Sep 9 high) 

Resistance 2: Y77.60 (Sep 12 high) 
Resistance 1: Y77.40 (high of american session on Sep 12) 
Current price: Y76.98
Support 1:Y76.90 (session low)  
Support 2:Y76.75/70 (Sep 6 and 12 low)  
Support 3:Y76.50 (Sep 2 low)  

Comments: the pair holds Y77.00 area. The immediate support - Y76.90. Below losses are possible to Y76.75/70. The immediate resistance - Y77.40. Above growth is possible to Y77.60.

11:14
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9000 (Apr 19-20 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8925/30 (Sep 12 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8880 (high of american session, session high)
Current price: Chf0.8801
Support 1: Chf0.8790/70 (area of session low, Sep 12 low, low of american session on Sep  9, Sep  8 high)
Support 2: Chf0.8700/05 (Sep 9 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8630 (Sep 6-7 high)

Comments: the pair holds Chf0.8830 area. The immediate resistance - Chf0.8880. Above growth is possible to Chf0.8925/30. The immediate support - Chf0.8790/70. Below the pair may fall to Chf0.8700. 

10:49
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5990 (Sep 9 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5940 (line of support from Aug 29)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5870/90 (area of session high and Sep 12 high)
Сurrent price: $1.5828
Support 1 : $1.5780/50 (area of low of July, Sep 12 low, Jan 25 low)
Support 2 : $1.5700     (psychological mark)
Support 3 : $1.5650     (area of high of the end of Dec 2010 and first half of Jan 2011)

Comments: the pair not managed to overcome strong support which limits the further decrease. Later the rate returned back to dayly range.

10:32
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3840 (high of american session on Sep 9) 

Resistance 2: $ 1.3790 (low of european session on Sep 9)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3700/20 (area of Sep 12 high and Sep 9 intraday high)
The current price: $1.3639
Support 1 : $1.3560 (low of american session on Sep 12, session low) 
Support 2 : $1.3490 (Sep  12 low)
Support 3 : $1.3430 (low of February)
Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The pair updated a session low, but restored later. 

 

09:50
European stocks are under pressure. Currently FTSE 5,101 -28.58 -0.56%, CAC 2,812 -42.51 -1.49%, DAX 5,045 -27.50 -0.54%
09:22
Italy 10-year spread trades 24bps wider at fresh EMU record high at +426bps.
09:05
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3800, $1.4000USD/JPY Y76.65, Y77.00, Y77.25, Y77.55, Y78.50
EUR/JPY Y108.30
AUD/USD  $1.0375, $1.0550

08:34
UK Data: Jul Global Goods Trade Deficit Stg8.922bn
08:34
UK DATA: Aug RPI +0.6% m/m; +5.2% y/y; Aug RPIX +5.3% y/y
08:33
UK DATA: Aug CPI +0.6% m/m; +4.5% y/y vs Jul 4.4% y/y; core CPI +3.1% y/y
08:08
IEA trims avg 2011 global demand fcst by 200 kbd to 89.3 mbd

IEA cuts avg 2012 global demand fcst by 400 kbd to 90.7 mbd;
IEA trims 2011 avg non-OPEC supply fcst 200 kbd to 52.8 mbd;
IEA trims 2012 avg non-OPEC supply fcst 200 kbd to 53.8 mbd;
August global oil supply rose 1.0 mbd m/m to 89.1 mbd;
August OPEC crude output rose 165 kbd m/m to 30.26 mbd.

08:02
Asian session:

Data:

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (Aug) -8
The euro fell toward its lowest level since 2001 against the yen on speculation Greece is nearing default and before Italy sells bonds today amid concern the region’s debt crisis is worsening.
The 17-nation euro snapped yesterday’s gain against the greenback as traders wagered the European Central Bank will cut its benchmark interest rate over the next year, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG index. 
Greece’s perceived chance of default in the next five years has soared to 98 percent, based on a standard pricing model of credit-default swaps, as Prime Minister George Papandreou fails to reassure international investors that his country can survive the euro-region crisis.
Italy will auction as much as 7 billion euros ($9.6 billion) of bonds today. The treasury is selling the debt to help pay for 14.5 billion euros of bonds maturing on Sept. 15.
An Italian government official yesterday said officials have held talks with their Chinese counterparts about potential investments in the economy. The purchase of Italian bonds by China was not the focus of the talks, which took place in the past few weeks, the official said on condition of anonymity, without specifying which assets may be involved.

EUR/USD: the pair holds in $1.3620-$ 1.3690. Later the rate renewed decrease. 
GBP/USD: the holds in $1.5830-$ 1.5870.
USD/JPY: the pair has fell in area Y77.00

IEA monthly oil market report is due, at 0800GMT. 
UK data at 0830GMT includes inflation and trade data as well as CLG House Prices. Consumer Price Inflation is expected to show price increases persisting at well over double the 2% official target. The BoE has said it expects CPI to approach a 5% annual rate once rising utility bills take their toll but that is not expected to be seen until the September data are released next month. Median forecasts for Tuesday look for CPI to come in at 0.6% m/m, 4.5% y/y with core-CPI at 0.6% m/m, 3.1% y/y. Trade is due out the same day and could well reflect the clear drop off in demand and orders from overseas seen in the recent Markit/CIPS PMI survey of the sector.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the Import/Export Price Index. Increases in import prices may be moderate due to only a small change in petroleum costs, and smaller increases in items like foods and motor vehicles. Export prices should benefit from favorable exchange rates and demand for 
agricultural products.The two earliest monthly indexes for consumer confidence include the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for September at 
1400GMT and could provide a strong hint about the direction of the preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on 
Friday. Finally, at 1800GMT, the US Treasury is expected to post a $130.0 bn budget gap in August.

07:48
Forex: Monday's review

The euro touched its lowest level since 2001 against the yen as speculation German Chancellor Angela Merkel is preparing for a Greek default curbed demand for the 17-nation currency.
The yen advanced against all its most-traded counterparts as demand for refuge increased and as the Swiss National Bank- imposed ceiling on the franc leaves Japan’s currency as one of the few haven assets. 
The euro weakened earlier to the lowest level versus the greenback since February after bets increased the European Central Bank may have to ease monetary policy to shore up the economy.
The yield on German bunds, Europe’s benchmark government debt securities, fell to a record 1.71 percent, while rates on Greek securities reached a record high and Italian and Spanish yields rose.
Merkel’s government is debating how to shore up German banks in the event that Greece fails to meet the budget-cutting terms of its aid package and is unable to get a bailout-loan payment, three officials said Sept. 9.
Germany will decide on a course of action after receiving the results of a Greek progress report, a government spokesman said, speaking on the customary condition of anonymity. 
BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole SA, France’s largest banks by market value, led European equity declines after two people with knowledge of the matter said Moody’s Investors Service may cut their credit ratings as soon as this week because of their Greek holdings.

EUR/USD: the pair showed low slightly below $1.3500,  then restored and finished session in area of $1.3660.
GBP/USD: the pair holds at $1.5770-$ 1.5890.
USD/JPY: the pair showed low on Y76.70, then grown and finished session above  Y77.00.

IEA monthly oil market report is due, at 0800GMT. 
UK data at 0830GMT includes inflation and trade data as well as CLG House Prices. Consumer Price Inflation is expected to show price increases persisting at well over double the 2% official target. The BoE has said it expects CPI to approach a 5% annual rate once rising utility bills take their toll but that is not expected to be seen until the September data are released next month. Median forecasts for Tuesday look for CPI to come in at 0.6% m/m, 4.5% y/y with core-CPI at 0.6% m/m, 3.1% y/y. Trade is due out the same day and could well reflect the clear drop off in demand and orders from overseas seen in the recent Markit/CIPS PMI survey of the sector.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the Import/Export Price Index. Increases in import prices may be moderate due to only a small change in petroleum costs, and smaller increases in items like foods and motor vehicles. Export prices should benefit from favorable exchange rates and demand for agricultural products.The two earliest monthly indexes for consumer confidence include the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for September at 1400GMT and could provide a strong hint about the direction of the preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. Finally, at 1800GMT, the US Treasury is expected to post a $130.0 bn budget gap in August.

06:42
Stocks: Monday's review

Japanese stocks fell for a second day, with the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average dropping to its lowest in almost two and a half years, as exporters and banks tumbled amid speculation Greece may be nearing default.
Sony Corp., which gets 21 percent of its sales in Europe, fell 3.4 percent as the yen’s advance to a 10-year high against the euro dimmed the earnings outlook. 

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest lender by market value, declined 2.7 percent on concern Europe’s debt crisis will hurt the global financial system. 
Sharp Corp. plunged 5 percent after Mizuho Securities Co. cut its target price on the maker of flat screens.

European stocks slumped for a second day, dragging the benchmark regional gauge to its lowest level since July 2009, as speculation mounted that Germany is preparing for Greece to default.
BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA) tumbled at least 11 percent after two people with knowledge of the matter said Moody’s Investors Service may cut the banks’ ratings because of their Greek holdings. AXA SA (CS) and ING Groep NV (INGA) lost more than 8 percent as insurers posted the second biggest losses among 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.
Officials in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government in Germany are debating how to shore up the country’s banks should Greece fail to meet the budget-cutting terms of its aid package, three coalition officials said on Sept. 9. BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole may have their ratings cut by Moody’s this week because of their holdings of the Mediterranean nation’s debt, two people with knowledge of the matter said.
Prime Minister George Papandreou, vowing to avoid a default and keep Greece in the euro, approved new measures yesterday to help plug a budget gap as resistance builds at home and in Europe to extending more aid to the European Union’s most- indebted nation.
Charter International Plc  rallied 6.6 percent to 857 pence after Colfax Corp. (CFX)’s U.K. unit said the company agreed to buy the U.K. engineering business for about 1.53 billion pounds ($2.4 billion).

U.S. stocks pared losses after the Financial Times reported that Italy was in talks with a Chinese investment firm to buy bonds, offsetting concern that Greece may default on its debt.
Chipmakers and banks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied. NetLogic Microsystems Inc. (NETL) jumped 52 percent after Broadcom Corp. (BRCM) agreed to buy the semiconductor company for $3.7 billion in cash.
Stocks rebounded as the Financial Times said Italian officials are trying to convince China to purchase its bonds, without identifying its sources. An Italian government official, who declined to be identified, told that Italian officials have held talks with Chinese counterparts about potential investments in the euro region’s third-largest economy.
The purchase of Italian bonds by China was not the focus of the talks, which took place in the past few weeks, the official said on condition of anonymity. A spokesman for Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti declined to comment.

06:11
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y77.85/90 (Sep 9 high) 

Resistance 2: Y77.60 (Sep 12 high) 
Resistance 1: Y77.40 (high of american session on Sep 12) 
Current price: Y77.06
Support 1:Y77.95/00 (Sep 2-5 high, session low)  
Support 2:Y76.75/70 (Sep 6 and 12 low)  
Support 3:Y76.50 (Sep 2 low)  

Comments: the pair renewed falling. The immediate support - Y77.95/00. Below losses are possible to Y76.75/70. The immediate resistance - Y77.40. Above growth is possible to Y77.60.

06:07
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8925/30 (Sep 12 high) 

Resistance 2: Chf0.8880 (high of american session on Sep 12)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8840 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8801
Support 1: Chf0.8770/75 (low of american session on Sep 9, Sep  8 high)
Support 2: Chf0.8700/05 (Sep 9 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8630 (Sep 6-7 high)

Comments: the pair corrected after significant growth. The imediate resistance is located on Chf0.8840. Above growth is possble to Chf0.8880. The immediate support - Chf0.8770. Below the pair may decrease to Chf0.8700. 

 

06:01
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5990 (Sep 9 high) 

Resistance 2: $ 1.5940 (line of support from Aug 29)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5870/90 (area of session high and Sep 12 high)
Current price: $1.5855
Support 1 : $1.5830 (session low)
Support 3 : $1.5780/70 (low of July, Sep 12 low)
Support 3 : $1.5750 (Jan 25 low)

05:59
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3840 (high of american session on Sep 9)

Resistance 2: $ 1.3790 (low of european session on Sep 9)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3700/20 (area of Sep 12 high and Sep 9 intraday high)
Current price: $1.3684
Support 1 : $1.3620 (session low) 
Support 2 : $1.3560 (low of american session on Sep 12) 
Support 3 : $1.3490 (Sep 12 low)

05:18
Daily history for Sep 12'2011:

Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 -201.99 -2.31% 8,535.67
FTSE 100 -85.03 -1.63% 5,129.62
CAC 40 -119.78 -4.03% 2,854.81
DAX -117.60 -2.27% 5,072.33 
Dow +68.99 +0.63% 11,061.12
Nasdaq +27.10 +1.10% 2,495.09
S&P 500 +8.04 +0.70% 1,162.27 
10 Year Yield 1.93% +0.02 --
Oil $88.15 -0.04 -0.05%
Gold $1,814.90 +1.60 +0.09%

05:03
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Sep 13'20011:

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (Aug) -8 2 
08:30 UK HICP (August) 0.4% 0.0%
08:30 UK HICP (August) Y/Y 4.5% 4.4%
08:30 UK HICP ex EFAT (August) Y/Y 3.1% 3.1%
08:30 UK Retail prices (August) - -0.2%
08:30 UK Retail prices (August) Y/Y - 5.0%
08:30 UK RPI-X (August) Y/Y 5.1% 5.0%
08:30 UK Trade in goods (July), bln -8.6 -8.9
08:30 UK Non-EU trade (July), bln -5.5 -5.7
12:30 USA Import prices (August) -0.5% 0.3%
12:30 USA Export prices (August) - -0.4%
19:00 USA Federal budget (August), bln -131.8 -129.4

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