CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 16-09-2011

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16.09.2011
19:00
DB say FOMC result will dominate and they expect additional policy accommodation, most likely maturity extension.
18:32
BMO about US data

"U-Mich consumer survey data show the mood of Americans remains dark so far this month, but not as dark as in August. Low mtg rates and Pres Obama's jobs plan perhaps lifted the index. But expectations remained very sour. Expectations at 47.0 was the lowest since the early 80s and infl expectations edged up."

18:14
Spot gold holds at $1810.25/oz, after trading in a $1763.40 to $1821.09 range.
17:48
US Tsy Sec Geithner says stable Europe is a key strategic issue
17:30
Dow 11,492 +58.61 +0.51%, Nasdaq 2,616 +9.15 +0.35%, S&P 1,213 +4.11 +0.34%
17:28
American focus: Euro weakens on concern that ministers’ actions won’t contain debt crisis

The euro fell, halting a two-day gain versus the dollar, after European finance ministers meeting in Poland ruled out efforts to prop up the region’s economy and gave no indication of providing added support for lenders.
The Dollar Index rose for the first time in four days after a report showed consumer confidence rose more than forecast this month. The yen extended declines against the dollar after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment climbed to 57.8 this month from 55.7 in August, which was the lowest level since November 2008.
The pound fell for a fourth week against the dollar on speculation a deteriorating economic outlook will spur the Bank of England to introduce additional monetary stimulus.

16:35
JPM about US data

"Michigan consumer sentiment details continued to look pretty weak and some of that reflects downbeat ideas on personal finances, income expectations, and the labor market.

16:15
US Stocks: Investors hit pause as Europe leaders meet

Currently: Dow +25.2 11,458.38 +0.22%, Nasdaq +5.91 2,612.98 +0.23%, S&P+1.65, 1,210.76 +0.14%.

U.S. stocks were little changed Friday, as investors take a breather and await news from a meeting of European finance ministers in Poland. 

Stocks started the day modestly higher, but erased those gains to hang close to the breakeven line. 

Financial stocks were dragging on stocks, with shares of Bank of America (, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) down about 2%.

 

15:53
Crude oil fell

Oil slipped, trimming its fourth straight weekly gain and longest winning streak since July, on concern that European plans to solve the region’s debt crisis may founder, threatening economic growth.

Currently crude oil for Oktober delivery is at $87.50 per barrel (-2.09%).

15:17
Dow 11,456.30 +23.12 +0.20%, Nasdaq 2,611.56 +4.49 +0.17%, S&P 1,210.42 +1.31 +0.11%
15:15
CS about US data

"in Sept consumer sentiment, Current Conditions pushed the number up. The main factor was a jump in Buying Conditions for Household Durables, mainly because of fewer consumers saying it was a 'bad time to buy'." CS's recession probability estimate is 35% currently, based on high unemploy claims, lower stocks and depressed consumer expectations. 

14:30
US Banking industry is negative on addl Fed moves, saying they may impede rather than help lending.
13:55
US: Sept prelim Rtrs-UMich consumer sentiment 57.8
13:47
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3815, $1.3900, $1.4000
USD/JPY Y76.50, Y76.65, Y77.00
AUD/USD $1.0310, $1.0375, $1.0470
EUR/CHF Chf1.1950
NZD/USD $0.8180

13:39
US Stocks open: Dow 11,487.33 +54.15 +0.47%, Nasdaq 2,617 +10.09 +0.39%, S&P 1,215 +6.03 +0.50%
13:28
Before the bell: S&P futures -0.3%, Nasdaq futures -0.1%

U.S. stock-index futures declined, indicating that the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will snap a four-day advance, as European Union finance ministers met in Poland to find ways to control the debt crisis.

EU finance ministers and central bankers meet in Poland today to discuss how to expand the euro area’s new bailout fund. Timothy F. Geithner will become the first U.S. Treasury Secretary to attend a European finance ministers’ summit.
A report published at 13:55 GMT may show that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 57 in September from an almost three- year low of 55.7 in August, economists in a survey predicted.
Company news:
Research in Motion Ltd. (RIM), the maker of Blackberry smartphones, plunged 19 percent in early New York trading after earnings disappointed investors for the third consecutive quarter.

13:03
US: Total Net TIC Flows (Jul) -51.8B, Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Jul) 9.5K
12:54
Citi Fx about FOMC

"We would not be surprised if FOMC decides to buy 30y bonds and possibly even expand their balance sheet. These policies could end badly. Too much liquidity in the 1970s had quite devastating effect. This directly led to the debilitating inflation spike in 1978 to 1980."

12:34
CANADA: Foreign investment in Canadian securities (Jul) 11.78B; Canadian Investment in Foreign Securities (Jul) -1.28B
12:27
European session:

Data:
08:00 EU(17) Current account (July) adjusted, bln -12.9
09:00 EU(17) Trade balance (July) adjusted, bln -2.5


The euro fell, halting a two-day gain versus the dollar and yen, on concern issues of collateral required by some nations to take part in another Greek bailout will hinder agreement at a meeting of European officials today.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet pressed euro-area governments to take decisive action at today’s meeting to halt the crisis and show “unity of purpose.” His comments, made late yesterday, came as the challenges in stem the debt crisis was highlighted by disputes over collateral for Greek loans and German objections to altering European treaties.
The euro jumped the most in a month yesterday after the ECB said it will coordinate with the Federal Reserve and other central banks to conduct three separate dollar liquidity operations to ensure lenders have enough of the currency through the end of the year.
The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, trimmed a weekly decline as concern the world’s largest economies are slowing fuels demand for the safest assets.

EUR/USD: the pair decreased below $1.3800.

GBP/USD: the pair showed low in $1.5740 area then restored above $1.5800. Later decrease renewed.

USD/JPY: the pair holds Y76.65-Y76.90.

In second half of the day focus will be on following data:
13:00 GMT Jul Tsy TICS.
13.55 GMT Sep prelim Rtrs-UMich consumer sentiment. Est56.5

11:57
Orders:

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3940, $1.3900, $1.3870/80, $1.3825
Offers $1.3750, $1.3735/30, $1.3710/00, $1.3680, $1.3660/50, $1.3635/30

11:53
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y77.30/40 (Sep 15 high, high of american session on Sep 12)
Resistance 2: Y77.05 (Sep 14 high)
Resistance 1: Y76.90 (session high)
Current price: Y7668
Support 1:Y76.50/60 (Sep 2 low, average line of down channel)  
Support 2:Y76.25/30 (Aug 1 low)  
Support 3:Y75.95 (Aug 19 low)

Comments: in the morning the pair rose to Y76.80 area. The immediate support - Y76.50/60. Below losses are possible to Y76.30. The immediate resistance - Y76.90. Above growth is possible to Y77.05.

11:48
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3:Chf0.8850 (Sep 14 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8800 (Sep 15 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8770 (resistance line from Sep 12)
Current price: Chf0.8744
Support 1: Chf0.8720 (local low)
Support 2: Chf0.8650 (session low)
Support 3: Chf0.8630 (Sep 6-7)

Comments: the pair grown. Resistance in area Chf0.8770 can limit further growth. 

11:39
ECB, Trichet: "Risks to EMU inflation outlook broadly balanced"

balance of economic risks on the downside

11:32
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5920 (FIBO 23.6 % $1.5705-$ 1.6618)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5870 (area of Sep 12-13 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5820 (resistance line from Aug 29)
Current price: $1.5808
Support 1 : $1.5740/30 (session low and low of american session on Sep  14)
Support 2 : $1.5705 (Sep 14 low)
Support 3 : $1.5650 (area of high of the end of Dec 2010 and first half of Jan 2011)
Коментарии: the pair tests resistance line from Aug 29.

11:07
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4020 (FIBO 50 % $1.3495-$ 1.4548)

Resistance 2: $ 1.3930 (Sep  15 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3830 (low of asian session)
Current price: $1.3810
Support 1 : $1.3770 (session low, low of american session on Sep  15, Sep  14 high) 
Support 2 : $1.3700 (Sep 14 low) 
Support 3 : $1.3630 (low of american session on Sep 14) 

Comments: the pair decreased. Support is in  $1.3770 area

10:33
Market sources say ECB is in buying Italy & Spain bonds
09:38
European stocks rose: FTSE 5,358 +19.98 +0.37% , CAC 3,047 +1.84 +0.06%, DAX 5,553 +44.98 +0.82%
09:36
Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei 8,864 +195.30 +2.25%
Hang Seng 19,480 +298.78 +1.56%
S&P/ASX  4,149 +77.67 +1.91%
Shanghai Composite 2,481 +2.44 +0.10%

09:05
EMU: July trade balance -E2.5bn
08:46
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3815, $1.3900, $1.4000
USD/JPY Y76.50, Y76.65, Y77.00
EUR/CHF Chf1.1950
AUD/USD $1.0310, $1.0375, $1.0470
NZD/USD $0.8180

08:23
Asian session: The euro declined

The euro declined versus the dollar and the yen, paring its first weekly advance this month.
The common currency rose this week as euro-area finance ministers prepare to meet today in Wroclaw, Poland. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet pressed euro-area governments to take decisive action to halt the debt crisis and show “unity of purpose” at today’s gathering.
The ECB said yesterday it will lend dollars to banks in the region in a series of three-month loans. The Frankfurt-based organization said it will coordinate with the Federal Reserve and other central banks to conduct three separate dollar liquidity operations to ensure lenders have enough of the currency through the end of the year.

EUR/USD: the pair bargains fell on asian session.

GBP/USD: the pair fell to area of Sep 12-13 low on $1.5760-$ 1.5780.

USD/JPY: the pair becomes stronger to  Y76.80 area.

The meeting of Europe's Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) takes place in Poland from today, including US Treasury
Secretary Tim Geithner. European data starts at 0600GMT with ACEA new car registrations data. Data continues at 0800GMT with the ECB current account data for July. EMU data then continues at 0900GMT with Q2 labour costs and the July trade balance.

08:04
EMU July current account -E12.9bn
07:45
Forex: Thursday's review

Five central banks announced a coordinated plan Thursday to pump dollars into Europe's financial system in an effort to boost liquidity across the eurozone. The European Central Bank, along with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank will hold three dollar auctions for U.S. dollars, with a three-month maturity, through the end of the year. The coordinated move is aimed at providing U.S. dollars to struggling European banks that need the currency to fund loans and repay debt. All of the auctions will carry a fixed rate and be conducted as "repurchase operations against eligible collateral."

Among the economic data today, it is worth noting recently published statistics on CPI for August and Initial Jobless Claims last week. The number of IJC rose to 428K as an average forecast 408K. Also CPI rose to the level of 3.8% y/y against an average forecast of +3.6%. Were later released positive data on Industrial Production in the U.S. in August: the forecast drops in the last reporting period to 0.1% the actual value was equal to 0.2% compared to the previous month. But all of these rather weighty economic data had no significant effect on the market against the background of the main news of the day - the plan to increase liquidity across the eurozone.

EUR/USD: the pair showed low at $1.3705. Then rose and reached high at $1.3930.
GBP/USD: in first half of day the pair fell to $1.5730. Then rose to $1.5870.
USD/JPY: the pair updated high in area of Y77.30. Then fell and finished session in Y76.60 area.

The meeting of Europe's Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) takes place in Poland from today, including US Treasury
Secretary Tim Geithner. European data starts at 0600GMT with ACEA new car registrations data. Data continues at 0800GMT with the ECB current account data for July. EMU data then continues at 0900GMT with Q2 labour costs and the July trade balance.

07:33
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japanese stocks advanced, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average rising the most in a week, after German and French leaders said they are convinced Greece will remain in the euro zone and speculation grew that China may help the region’s most-indebted nations.
Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker by market value, gained 2.1 percent.
Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd., Japan’s No. 3 steelmaker, jumped 3.8 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG raised its stock price estimate.
Elpida Memory Inc. paced chipmakers higher after saying it may shift some production overseas to combat the yen’s appreciation.

European stocks rallied as Germany and France said Greece will remain a member of the euro and the European Central Bank announced coordinated measures with the Federal Reserve to ensure banks have enough dollars.
National benchmark indexes climbed in all 18 western European markets, except Greece and Ireland. Germany’s DAX Index (DAX) advanced 3.2 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 2.1 percent and France’s CAC 40 climbed 3.3 percent.
Bank shares rose after the ECB said it will lend the U.S. currency to euro-area banks.
BNP Paribas (BNP), France’s biggest bank, soared 13 percent to 30.50 euros, the largest advance since May 2010. Credit Agricole surged 5.9 percent to 5.52 euros and Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) rose 10 percent to 1.05 euros.
UBS AG (UBSN) slid 11 percent, the most since March 2009, after Switzerland’s biggest bank announced a $2 billion trading loss.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said late yesterday they are “convinced” Greece will stay in the euro area after a phone conversation with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou.

U.S. stocks rose for a fourth day as the European Central Bank and international policy makers coordinated to lend dollars to banks to tame the credit crisis, offsetting concern spurred by signs unemployment is worsening.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) added more than 3 percent as the ECB coordinated with the Federal Reserve and other central banks to provide liquidity to European lenders.
General Electric Co. (GE) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) advanced at least 2 percent, pacing gains in companies most-tied to the economy.
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) tumbled 19 percent as the online film- rental service cut its forecast for U.S. subscribers.

Stocks rallied as the ECB said it coordinated with the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank to extend three-month loans to euro-area banks in an effort to ensure they have enough cash for the rest of the year. The announcement added to optimism after French and German leaders yesterday confirmed they will support Greece’s continued participation in the shared euro currency.
Operation Twist
In the U.S., a report showed industrial production unexpectedly rose in August. That helped temper concerns about other data pointing to a weakening recovery. Stock futures trimmed gains earlier as applications for U.S. unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level since the end of June. Separate reports showed that manufacturing in the New York region contracted at a faster pace, while manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank for a second straight month.
All groups in the S&P 500 rose as gains were led by financial, energy and industrial shares.

06:59
Tech on USD/JPY

 

Resistance 3: Y77.40 (high of american session on Sep 12)
Resistance 2: Y77.05 (Sep 14 high)
Resistance 1: Y76.85/90 (session high)
Current price: Y76.77
Support 1:Y76.50/60 (Sep 2 low, average line of down channel)  
Support 2:Y76.25/30 (Aug 1 low)  
Support 3:Y75.95 (Aug 19 low)
 
Comments: in the morning the pair rose to Y76.80 area. The immediate support - Y76.50/60. Below losses are possible to Y76.30. The immediate resistance - Y76.90. Above growth is possible to Y77.05.

 

06:55
Finnish finance minister, saying doesn't expect solution to collateral problem on Friday.
06:32
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5920 (FIBO 23.6 % $1.5705-$ 1.6618)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5870 (area of Sep  12-13 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5820 (resistance  line from Aug 29)
Current price: $1.5802
Support 1 : $1.5780 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5730 (session low and low of american session on Sep 14)
Support 3 : $1.5705 (Sep 14 low)

Коментарии: the pair holds at $1.5800 area. The further growth is possible to $1.5820 area.

06:31
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3:Chf0.8850 (Sep 14 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8800 (high of Sep 15)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8750 (area of Sep 13-14 low)
Current price: Chf0.8711
Support 1: Chf0.8675 (average line of down channel)
Support 2: Chf0.8630 (Sep 6-7 high)
Support 3: Chf0.8530 (Sep  7 low)

Comments: the pair is corrected. In focus support on Chf0.8675.

06:15
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4090 $ 1.4110 (area of Sep 7-8 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4020 (FIBO 50 % $1.3495-$ 1.4548)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3930 (a maximum on September, 15th)
Current price: $1.3865
Support 1 : $1.3835 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3780 (Sep 15 low)
Support 3 : $1.3700 (Sep 14 high)

Comments: the pair retreated from high reached yesterday. The immediate resistance - $1.3930 and further $1.4020.

05:38
Daily history for Sep 15'2011:

Change % Change Last
Nikkei 8,669 +150.29 +1.76%   
Hang Seng  19,182 +136.06 +0.71%  
Shanghai Composite   2,479 -5.77 -0.23%
FTSE   5,338 +110.52 +2.11%   
CAC   3,046 +96.48 +3.27%   
DAX  5,508 +168.05 +3.15%  
Dow 11,427.12 +180.39 +1.60%
Nasdaq 2,607 +34.52 +1.34%
S&P 500 1,209 +20.42 +1.72%
10 Year Yield 2.08% +0.07
Oil $89.29 -0.11 -0.12%
Gold $1,791.70 +10.30 +0.58%

05:26
Schedule for today, Friday, Sep 16'20011:

08:00 EU(17) Current account (July) unadjusted, bln - -3.3
08:00 EU(17) Current account (July) adjusted, bln -5.8 -7.4
09:00 EU(17) Trade balance (July) unadjusted, bln - 0.9
09:00 EU(17) Trade balance (July) adjusted, bln 1.9 -1.6
13:00 USA TICS net flows (July), bln - -29.5
13:00 USA TICS net long-term flows (July), bln 22.5 3.7
13:55 USA Michigan sentiment index (September) preliminary 55.9 55.7

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