CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 06-09-2011

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06.09.2011
19:05
Hot stocks:

GAINERS
Symb Last Change Chg %
TIN.N 30.89 +6.26 +25.42
BTH.N 64.35 +11.28 +21.25
SWS.N 4.28 +0.53 +14.13
VRS.N 2.04 +0.17 +9.09
SHAW.N 23.03 +1.20 +5.50
LOSERS
Symb Last Change Chg %
RBS.N 6.79 -1.14 -14.38
CS.N 23.62 -3.76 -13.73
CGV.N 20.13 -2.81 -12.25
UBS.N 12.20 -1.60 -11.59
ING.N 7.04 -0.89 -11.22

18:57
Dow -133.96 at 11106.30, Nasdaq -14.28 at 2466.05, S&P -11.67 at 1162.30

Stocks continue to pare their losses. The latest leg of the effort has taken stocks to fresh session highs. The Nasdaq's climb has been steeper than that of the Dow. As such, the Nasdaq's current loss is about one-quarter of what it had traded with at its session low, whereas the Dow's current loss is only a about half of what it was at its session low. The Nasdaq's relative strength stems from the likes of Apple (AAPL 376.87, +2.82) and Amazon.com (AMZN 214.40, +4.40).

18:34
EUR/USD remains under pressure

The rate stretches to $1.4015 but move is as much about the lack of liquidity in euro-Swiss as anything else. The pair should find resistance here at the 200-DMA and also at the $1.4020 area of the earlier bounce high. $1.3950 low of July 13 is a key pivotal level. Break below seen exposing stops and stop entries as funds race to set fresh euro shorts.

18:24
Dow -162.68 at 11077.58, Nasdaq -25.36 at 2454.97, S&P -15.87 at 1158.10

Stocks are at their best levels of the day, but losses remain deep and broad. The weakness today, and in recent sessions, is largely underpinned by concerns about the financial and fiscal health and stability of the eurozone.


18:10
American focus:

 

The franc tumbled, dropping the most ever against the euro, after the Swiss central bank imposed a ceiling on the currency’s exchange rate and said it will defend the target with the “utmost determination.”
The franc depreciated at least 7.8 percent against all the most-active currencies, with the biggest decline versus the Norwegian krone. The yen retreated against the dollar as Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi said he will call for Group of Seven officials that “excessive yen rises” are bad for the global economy. The euro fell below its 200-day moving average against the dollar.
“The Swiss National Bank indicated to the market that they are more than willing to print as much money as necessary to defend this peg and defend it with resolve,” said Jessica Hoversen, a New York-based analyst at the futures broker MF Global Holdings Ltd. “The market is starting to play the Norwegian krone as a safe haven.”
The franc had surged to records against the euro and the dollar, hurting exports and eroding economic growth. While the Swiss National Bank last month boosted liquidity to the money market and lowered borrowing costs to zero, investor concern that governments may struggle to contain Europe’s worsening debt crisis has continued to push the currency higher.
The SNB is “aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the franc,” the Zurich-based central bank said in an e-mailed statement today. “With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a euro-franc exchange rate below the minimum rate of 1.20 francs” and “is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.”
The franc is the best performer this year among a basket of the currencies of 10 developed markets, appreciating 5.1 percent. The dollar was the worst performing currency, losing 4.9 percent.
Swiss National Bank President Philipp Hildebrand cut interest rates to “as close to zero as possible” on Aug. 3, and subsequently boosted banks’ sight deposits, or cash that can be withdrawn on demand, to 200 billion francs ($255 billion) from 30 billion francs.
World Bank President Robert Zoellick said risks to the global economy are intensifying, with the euro region’s outlook dependent on European leaders making the right decisions.

 

17:38
GREECE: Finmin says government is committed to all needed reforms, intends to implement privatization plan and says Greece is not a permanent problem for the EU.
17:19
Dow -204.91 at 11035.35, Nasdaq -40.29 at 2440.04, S&P -20.94 at 1153.03

Unlike earlier rebound attempts, stocks haven't been backed down from their recent recovery highs. That has enabled stocks to sit at session highs. Overall losses remain steep, though.
Pressure this session has stocks on pace for their third straight loss. As things currently stand, each loss exceeds 1%, based on the S&P 500. In turn, the stock market is already down more than 5% in September. That comes on top of the 5.7% monthly loss suffered in August, which marked the poorest monthly performance in more than one year.

16:43
Buba's Weidmann: Greece adhering to program is condition for aid
16:40
Buba's Weidmann: Greece must implement agreed program and must show gov't is ready and able to solve crisis.
16:21
Barclays Wealth: North America and Europe "are at the beginning of a multiyear period of unusually slow economic growth"
15:55
Dow 11,017 -222.89 -1.98%, Nasdaq 2,434 -46.11 -1.86%, S&P 1,150 -23.92 -2.04%
15:43
UK's Cameron says that a disorderly break up of eurozone would be bad for UK.
15:14
CS about UA data

"Aug headline ISM Non-Mfg index came in above market expectations at 53.3. Supplier Deliveries and New Orders pushed the headline number up, while Business Activity and Employment were lower. Other relief was the low reading for Inventory Sentiment suggesting there is not an oversupply condition more broadly in the US economy."

14:52
Crude oil fell

October NYMEX crude down $1.75 at $84,69, moving in line with lower stocks and a firmer US dollar. Like stocks, oil prices edged up from their early lows on the stronger-than-expected ISM data but remain under pressure.

14:28
Dow -264.02 at 10976.24, Nasdaq -49.45 at 2430.88, S&P -28.37 at 1145.60

All three major equity averages are down in excess of 2%. To little surprise, then, weakness is widespread.
Industrials, financials, and energy stocks are in the worst shape. The three sectors are all contending with losses of at least 3%. Telecom, which is down 1.5%, represents the best performing sector this morning.

14:14
US: Aug nonmfg ISM data

Prices paid 64.2. New orders 52.8 vs 51.7. Employment 51.6 vs 52.5.

14:01
US: Aug nonmfg ISM 53.3 vs 52.7 Jul.
13:41
GBP/USD tries to recover

Lift back from $1.6020 lows,  edging to a recovery high of $1.6045, but momentum quickly fades. Decent demand said to remain in place into $1.6020, more between $1.6010/00 with the barrier at $1.6000 said to be for decent size. A break below $1.6000 to expose $1.5980, the level the 76.4% retrace of the move up from $1.5784/1.6618.

13:24
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were set to open lower Tuesday, amid renewed fears of a eurozone debt crisis and concerns about the global economy.
European markets fell sharply in the previous session, but edged higher Tuesday after the Swiss National Bank intervened on the franc. In a move to protect the currency from Europe's dept woes, the bank set a minimum exchange rate at 1.20 Swiss francs per euro.
Investors flocked to the safety of Treasuries on Tuesday. The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to a record low level of 1.93% from 2% late Friday.
Economy: Investors will get the Institute for Supply Management's services report for August at 14:00 GMT. Economists expect a reading of 51, down from July's reading of 52.7. Any reading above 50 signifies expansion.
Companies: Shares of Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) fell 5% in premarket trading, after reports surfaced that the bank could cut 30,000 workers over several years.
On Friday, the federal agency overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac filed lawsuits against 17 financial institutions. The lawsuits cited Bank of America, Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500); and were filed in an attempt to recover billions of dollars in losses from risky mortgage investments.
World markets:

Oil for October delivery slipped $2.10 to $84.68 a barrel.
Gold futures for December delivery rose $21.20 to $1,898.10 an ounce. The precious metal hit an intraday record earlier Tuesday of $1,923.70 an ounce.

13:05
JPM about US economy

"With the US projected to grow at a 1% pace during 2H11, it is no doubt vulnerable to contracting, and we lace recession risks at an elevated 40%. We see slow growth."

12:45
FTSE 5,116 +13.75 +0.27%, CAC 2,974 -25.77 -0.86%, DAX 5,210 -35.86 -0.68%
12:25
European session:

Data:
09:00 EU(17) GDP (Q2) revised 0.2%
09:00 EU(17) GDP (Q2) revised Y/Y 1.6%
10:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (July) seasonally adjusted -2.8%
10:00 Germany Manufacturing orders (July) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y 8.7%

The Swiss franc tumbled, dropping the most ever against the euro, after the central bank imposed a ceiling on the currency’s exchange rate and said it will defend the target with the “utmost determination.”
Switzerland’s currency snapped four days of gains versus the euro, falling as much as 8.7 percent and declining to the weakest level since July.
The euro snapped five days of losses against the dollar as European stocks advanced.
The Swiss National Bank is “aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the franc,” the Zurich-based central bank said in an e-mailed statement today. “With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a euro-franc exchange rate below the minimum rate of 1.20 francs” and “is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.”

EUR/USD: the pair showed high on  $1,4280 then decreased in area of $1,4110.
GBP/USD: the pair showed high above  $1,6200 but  fallen back in area of session low later. 
USD/JPY: the pair become stronger above Y77,00, showed high on Y77,60.
At 1400GMT the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is due.

11:46
Orders:

EUR/USD 

Offers $1.4350/60, $1.4330, $1.4295/315, $1.4260/80, $1.4245/50, $1.4200
Bids $1.4150/30, $1.4105/095, $1.4015/00

11:31
Greek 10-year spread widens 12bps to fresh record high +1674bps
11:19
GBP/USD back below $1.6100

 

Cable currently trades around $1.6070. Support now seen into $1.6060 (Monday low), more between $1.6050/40 ahead of $1.6010/00.

11:00
European focus: the Swiss franc holds at area of session low

The Swiss franc tumbled, dropping the most ever against the euro, after the nation’s central bank set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 per euro and said it will defend the target with the “utmost determination” if needed.
Switzerland’s currency snapped four days of gains versus the euro, falling as much as 8.7 percent and declining to the weakest level since July. 
The euro snapped five days of losses against the dollar as European stocks advanced.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, was little changed at 75.146 after rising for the previous five days.

10:30
FTSE 5,179 +76.02 +1.49%, CAC 3,025 +25.87 +0.86%, DAX 5,292 +45.84 +0.87%
10:02
Germany: July real sa manufacturing orders falling 2.8% m/m
09:17
Asian session review: Franc plunges as SNB pegs the rate

Data released:
01:30    Australia Investment Lending for Homes (Jul)     1.9%        -4.4%    1    
01:30    Australia Home Loans (Jul)     1.0%    1.6%    0.6%Revised from 0.0%    2    
01:30    Australia Current Account Balance (Q2)     -7.42B    -7.10B    -11.12BRevised from 11.12B    2    
04:30    Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement                2    
04:30    Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep 6)     4.75%    4.75%    4.75%

The Swiss franc extended declines versus the dollar and euro after the Swiss National Bank set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs per euro.
According to the SNB's statement the current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is therefore aiming for a substantial weakening of the Swiss franc and set the minimum exchange rate at Chf1.2000/euro.
But even at a rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, the Swiss franc is still high and should continue to weaken over time. If the economic outlook and deflationary risks so require, the SNB will take further
measures.

EUR/USD rocketed from the lows around Chf1.4035 to the highs on $1.4280 before it retreated to current $1.4181.
GBP/USD initially fell to $1.6060 before rallied to $1.6204. Now rate holds around $1.6119.
USD/JPY rose from Y76.70 to Y77.60.

Germany's manufacturing orders will be released at 10:00 GMT.Among the US data investors will digest US  Non-mfg ISM at 14:00 GMT.

09:01
EU: 2q real GDP unrev +0.2% q/q, +1.6% y/y
08:32
GERMANY, Schaeuble: Sees Germany GDP of around +3% in 2011
08:00
SNB: Sets minimum exchange rate at Chf1.2000/euro
07:39
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD: $1.4200, $1.4300
USD/JPY: Y77.15, Y77.20, Y77.75, Y78.00, Y78.50
EUR/JPY: Y110.90, Y111.25
USD/CHF: Chf0.7665
AUD/USD: $1.0500, $1.0655, $1.0710
NZD/USD: $0.8110

07:26
STOCKS: Monday's review

Majors close

Nikkei  8,784 -166.28 -1.86% 
Hang Seng 19,616 -596.51 -2.95% 
Shanghai Composite  2,479 -49.54 -1.96%

FTSE 5,103 -189.45 -3.58%
CAC 3,000 -148.99 -4.73%
DAX 5,246 -292.15 -5.28%

Japanese stocks fell the most in two weeks after a report showed U.S. employment stagnated, stoking concern the world’s biggest economy may slip into a recession and damping the earnings outlook for Asian exporters.
Honda Motor Co. dropped 4.7%.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306) dropped 2.3% after banks fell in the U.S.
Komatsu Ltd. (6301) fell 5.4% after Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc. lowered its rating on the stock to “hold” from “buy,” citing a drop in its share of the Chinese market amid competition with local manufacturers.
The Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average fell 1.9% to 8,784.46, the biggest drop since Aug. 19. The broader Topix index declined 1.8% to 755.82.
The Topix has lost about 16% this year as concerns about an economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe’s debt crisis damped demand in two of Japan’s biggest export markets.

European stocks tumbled, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index posting its biggest two-day drop since March 2009, as investors speculated that support for bailing out Europe’s indebted nations may fade.
Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) and Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) both tumbled more than 8% after the U.S. sued 17 lenders to recoup $196 billion and the cost of insuring against default in Europe surge to a record.
Clariant AG (CLN) led chemical makers lower, tumbling 16% after the company cut this year’s earnings forecasts.
Merkel’s party suffered its fifth election loss this year after the Chancellor failed to sway voters in her home state with a campaign based on her handling of the euro area’s debt crisis.
The Social Democrats, the main opposition party nationally, took 35.7% in Mecklenburg- Western Pomerania, while Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union had 23.1%, its worst result since voting began in 1990.
Among European lenders, the FHFA claimed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bought $14.2 billion from Deutsche Bank, $14.1 billion from Credit Suisse, $30.4 billion from RBS, $6.2 billion from HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), $4.9 billion from Barclays Plc (BARC) and $1.3 billion from Societe Generale (GLE) SA. The FHFA sued UBS AG (UBSN) in July. HSBC slid 3.8%, Barclays lost 6.7% and Societe Generale sank 8.6%.
Banks also fell as the premium they pay to borrow in dollars for three months through the swaps markets climbed to the most since December 2008, a sign that Europe’s lenders may be struggling to get funding.
France’s Arkema retreated 8.2%, Germany’s Wacker Chemie AG dropped 7.3% and Amsterdam-based Akzo Nobel NV sank 6.7%.

US stocks were closed in observance of Labor Day.

07:02
FOREX: Monday's review
The euro fell for a fifth day versus the dollar after an election loss for Germany’s ruling party stoked concern support is fading for bailouts in Europe, boosting demand for refuge currencies.
The Swiss franc strengthened against all its major counterparts as European shares tumbled and the cost of insuring government bonds in the region from default climbed to record highs. The yen gained as economists said a U.S. report tomorrow will show services industries slowed, adding to signs global growth is weakening. The Dollar Index climbed to a one-month high after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union was defeated in the election in her home state.
European services and manufacturing growth weakened in August as austerity measures and waning demand clouded growth prospects. A composite index based on a survey of euro-area purchasing managers in both industries dropped to 50.7 from 51.1 in July, Markit Economics said today.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is scheduled to speak in Paris today before the ECB’s policy meeting on Sept. 8.


EUR/USD failed to break above $1.4200 and weakened to $1.4060. Rate later tried to recover before weakened again to $1.4090
GBP/USD was between $1.6170/90 before fell to $1.6090 and later - to $1.6060.
USD/JPY held within the range, limited by Y76.70/80, before declining to Y77.00.

 

Swiss inflation data is due to come at 07:15 GMT.
EU 2Q GDP report comes at 09:00 GMT with the median is for +0.2% q/q.
Germany's manufacturing orders will be released at 10:00 GMT.

Among the US data investors will digest US  Non-mfg ISM at 14:00 GMT.

06:50
EUR/USD rises

EUR/USD continues to go higher in early Europe. Rate currently trades around $1.4070, off recovery highs at $1.4074 after reported stops above
$1.4070 were targeted and tripped.

06:38
Techs on USD/JPY:

Resistance 3: Y78.50 
Resistance 2: Y77.70 
Resistance 1: Y76.90
Current price: Y76.77
Support 1: Y76.60
Support 2: Y75.90
Support 3: Y75.20

Comments: Dollar continues to narrow into the triangle on hourly charts, limited by Y76.60 and Y76.90 (support ans resistance respectively). Below Y76.60 losses may dip to Y75.90 (Aug 19 lows and record lows) and Y75.20. Break above Y76.90 recover may extend to Y77.70 (Aug 31 high) and Y78.50  (Aug 08 high).
06:23
Techs on USD/CHF:

Resistance 3: Chf0.8170
Resistance 2: Chf0.8080/90
Resistance 1: Chf0.7910 
Current price: Chf0.7870
Support 1: Chf0.7830
Support 2: Chf0.7710
Support 3: Chf0.7650

Comments: Rate consolidates. Minor support comes at Chf0.7830 (23.6% Fibo of Chf0.8230 - Chf0.7710 decline), then around Friday's lows on Chf0.7710/00. Stronger level - at Chf0.7650 (50% Fibo of Chf0.7060 - Chf0.8240 rise). Resistance is near yesterday's high on Chf0.7910. Further rise may extend to $Chf0.8080/90 (Sep 01 high). Key resistance comes at Chf0.8170 (trend resistance line from Jun 01'2010).

 

06:03
Techs on GBP/USD:

Resistance 3: $1.6280 
Resistance 2: $1.6250/60
Resistance 1: $1.6120
Current price: $1.6070
Support 1: $1.6060
Support 2: $1.6000 
Support 3: $1.5910

Comments: Rate holds steady above testerday's lows on $1.6060 (minor support). Stronger level comes at $1.6000 (trend line from May 20'2010, also Jul 18 lows). Below rate may probe Jun 27-28 lows on $1.5910. Resistance is around $1.6120. Further recoverr may extend to $1.6250/60 (Sep 02 highs) and then - to $1.6280 (channel line from Aug 19).

05:48
Techs on EUR/USD:

Resistance 3: $1.4240
Resistance 2: $1.4170
Resistance 1: $1.4100
Current price: $1.4044
Support 1: $1.4050/60
Support 2: $1.4010 
Support 3: $1.3980

Comments: Rate continues to weaken, holding a bit higher strong support at $1.4050/60 (Aug 05 and Sep 05 lows). Below losses may widen to Jul 17 lows on $1.4010. Stronger support at $1.3980 (trend support line from Jun 07'2010). Initial resistance comes at $1.4100 (Asian highs), then - at $1.4170 (yesterday's highs). Stronger resistance is near channel line from Aug 30 at $1.4240.
05:34
UBS economists say: "We continue to see the RBA on hold for an extended period."
05:19
Daily history for Sep 05'2011:
Nikkei  8,784 -166.28 -1.86% 
Hang Seng 19,616 -596.51 -2.95% 
Shanghai Composite  2,479 -49.54 -1.96%

FTSE 5,103 -189.45 -3.58%
CAC 3,000 -148.99 -4.73%
DAX 5,246 -292.15 -5.28%

05:04
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Sep 06'20011:

09:00     EU(17)     GDP (Q2) revised         0.2%    0.2%
09:00     EU(17)     GDP (Q2) revised Y/Y         1.7%    1.7%
10:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (July) seasonally adjusted         -0.1%    1.8%
10:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (July) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y         10.3%    9.5%
12:55     USA     Redbook (03.09)              
14:00     USA     ISM Non-mfg PMI (August)         51.3    52.7
14:00     USA     ISM Non-mfg business index (August)         -    56.1

04:31
Australia: RBA leaves key rate unch at 4.75%
09.09.2011
08.09.2011
07.09.2011
06.09.2011
05.09.2011
02.09.2011
01.09.2011
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