Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 09-04-2014

EUR/USD $1,3853 +0,82%

GBP/USD $1,6791 +0,26%

USD/CHF Chf0,8795 -0,47%

USD/JPY Y101,98 +0,13%

EUR/JPY Y141,27 +0,54%

GBP/JPY Y171,21 +0,38%

AUD/USD $0,9381 +0,29%

NZD/USD $0,8711 +0,51%

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation April +2.1%         

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate March 6.0% 6.0%     

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed March 47.3 14.3     

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln March -23.0 -0.9     

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y March 26.1%         

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m February -0.2%         

06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y February -0.1%         

06:45 France CPI, m/m March +0.6%         

06:45 France CPI, y/y April +0.9%         

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report April             

11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%     

11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375     

11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement                 

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index February +0.3% +0.5%     

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index March +0.9% +0.2%     

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims April 326 314     

13:00 G20 Meetings                 

18:00 U.S. Federal budget March -193.5 -127.5     

22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, m/m March -1.0%         

22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y March +0.2%         

Euro traded upward against the dollar, but gradually retreating from its maximum. Impact on the dynamics of the data for Germany and the United States . As it became known , exports fell by 1.3 percent in January , this is the second drop in three months and the largest since May 2013. Predicted drop in exports by 0.5 percent after expanding by 2.2 percent in January. On the other hand , imports increased by 0.4 percent, faster than the 0.1 percent growth economists estimate . As a result, the trade surplus fell to a seasonally adjusted to 15.7 billion euros from 17.3 billion euros in January.

As for U.S. data , they showed that wholesale inventories in the U.S. rose at a slower pace in February than in the previous month , which may support predictions that the improvement does not help the economy in the first quarter . According to the report , the volume of wholesale inventories rose 0.5 percent in February after increasing 0.8 percent in January , which was revised up from 0.6 percent. Added that the increase in February was in line with economists' expectations . The data also showed that in February sales at wholesalers jumped 0.7 percent after falling 1.8 percent in January. Given the pace of sales in February will need about 1.19 months to clear the shelves of inventory. Recall that in January this ratio was also at this level.

The dynamics also affect expectations publication of the minutes of the meeting FOMC. Importance of this event overblown absence of other key events. Most likely , the report will disappoint those who expect the hawkish attitude of Yellen . However, it probably will reflect the Fed 's commitment folding program , which should last until the end of 2014 in the absence of any unexpected events.

The British pound traded almost unchanged against the dollar, disregarding the trade balance data . In the UK, the visible trade deficit narrowed in February , while the surplus on services decreased compared with the previous month , data showed on Wednesday the Office for National Statistics . The merchandise trade deficit fell to 9.1 billion pounds in February from 9.5 billion pounds in January. Deficit , as was expected to fall to 9.3 billion pounds. Exports of goods decreased by 1.6 percent in January to 23.5 billion pounds. In turn, imports fell by 2.2 percent to 32.6 billion pounds. Meanwhile, the services surplus amounted to 7 billion pounds compared with the January estimate of 7.3 billion pounds of surplus . Combined deficit on trade in goods and services decreased slightly to 2.1 billion pounds from 2.2 billion pounds in January.

USD/JPY Y101.75, Y102.00, Y102.50, Y102.80, Y103.00, Y103.50

EUR/JPY Y140.00, Y141.50, Y141.60

EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3760, $1.3775, $1.3790, $1.3800, $1.3930

EUR/GBP stg.0.8290, stg0.8300

EUR/CHF Chf1.2230

AUD/USD $0.9300

USD/CAD C$1.0850, C$1.0900, C$1.0950, C$1.1000, C$1.1050

06:00 Germany Current Account February 16.2 13.9

06:00 Germany Trade Balance February 17.2 18.8 15.7

08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods February -9.8 -9.3 -9.1

The euro exchange rate against the dollar rose slightly against the background data on the trade balance of Germany. German exports fell in February by more than expected , while imports increased for the second month in a row, showed on Wednesday , official data agency Destatis. Exports fell by 1.3 percent in January , this is the second drop in three months and the largest since May 2013. Predicted drop in exports by 0.5 percent after expanding by 2.2 percent in January.

On the other hand , imports increased by 0.4 percent, faster than the 0.1 percent growth economists estimate . However, the pace slowed down compared with growth of 4.1 percent , which is seen in January. As a result, the trade surplus fell to a seasonally adjusted to 15.7 billion euros from 17.3 billion euros in January. The surplus also decreased from 16.7 billion euros surplus hosted a year ago.

In annual terms, exports increased by 4.6 percent , while imports rose by 6.5 percent in February . Current account balance to a surplus of 13.9 billion euros in February compared with a surplus of 15.7 billion euros in the previous year . Exports to the EU increased by 6.7 percent compared with last year , while imports from these countries increased by 9 percent. While exports to the euro area grew by 3.7 percent , while imports rose by 8.4 per cent .

British pound against the dollar has stabilized , disregarding the trade balance data . In the UK, the visible trade deficit narrowed in February , while the surplus on services decreased compared with the previous month , data showed on Wednesday the Office for National Statistics .

The merchandise trade deficit fell to 9.1 billion pounds in February from 9.5 billion pounds in January. Deficit , as was expected to fall to 9.3 billion pounds.

Exports of goods decreased by 1.6 percent in January to 23.5 billion pounds. In turn, imports fell by 2.2 percent to 32.6 billion pounds.

Meanwhile, the services surplus amounted to 7 billion pounds compared with the January estimate of 7.3 billion pounds of surplus .

Combined deficit on trade in goods and services decreased slightly to 2.1 billion pounds from 2.2 billion pounds in January.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3808

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair traded in a narrow range

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y102.16 and stepped

At 17:01 GMT the U.S. is deploying 10 - year bonds . At 18:00 GMT held publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting . At 22:30 GMT New Zealand will release the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Business NZ in March . At 23:50 GMT Japan will change the volume of orders for machinery and equipment in February.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3890-910, $1.3875/80, $1.3845/55

Bids $1.3780, $1.3720, $1.3705/00

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.6785/800

Bids $1.6710/00, $1.6685/80,  $1.6665/60, $1.6655/45

AUD/USD

Offers  $0.9450, $0.9400

Bids $0.9310/00, $0.9250, $0.9225/20, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.00, Y141.45/50, Y141.20, Y141.00

Bids Y140.25/20, Y139.50

USD/JPY

Offers  Y103.00, Y102.80/85,  Y102.50, Y102.20/25

Bids Y101.50, Y101.20, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers  stg0.8320/25, stg0.8300, stg0.8250

Bids stg0.8200, stg0.8190-80

USD/JPY Y101.75, Y102.00, Y102.50, Y102.80, Y103.00, Y103.50

EUR/JPY Y140.00, Y141.50, Y141.60

EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3760, $1.3775, $1.3790, $1.3800, $1.3930

EUR/GBP stg.0.8290, stg0.8300

EUR/CHF Chf1.2230

AUD/USD $0.9300

USD/CAD C$1.0850, C$1.0900, C$1.0950, C$1.1000, C$1.1050

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence April -0.7% +0.3%

01:30 Australia Home Loans February 0.0% +0.4% +2.3%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report April

The Australian and New Zealand currencies advanced after data showed home-loan approvals increased at a faster pace than estimated in the larger nation. Home-loan approvals rose 2.3 percent in February from a month earlier, the biggest increase since September, figures from Australia’s statistics bureau showed today. That compares with the 1.5 percent growth estimated by economists in a Bloomberg News survey. A separate private report showed consumer confidence improved this month for the first time since November.

Demand for the greenback was supported before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its March meeting today as investors weigh when the U.S. central bank will start to raise rates. The U.S. central bank reduced monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion at the March 18-19 meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that time the central bank may start to increase interest rates “around six months” after ending its asset-buying program.

Sterling appreciated against most of its 16 major peers yesterday as data showed factory output rose in February three times faster than economists estimated in a Bloomberg survey. BOE Governor Mark Carney said rates might begin to rise before the general election in May 2015, according to an interview published on April 3 with the Northern Echo newspaper.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3785-95

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6735-50

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y102.05

UK trade data at 0830GMT provides the domestic interest but attention will be set on the release of Fed Minutes later in the day (1800GMT).