Forex-novosti i prognoze od 14-08-2022

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14.08.2022
23:53
USD/CHF Price Analysis: Fades bounce off seven-month-old support above 0.9100
  • USD/CHF remains below 200-DMA despite bouncing off multi-day-old support line.
  • Bearish MACD signals, failure to cross the key DMA favor sellers.
  • Bulls need validation from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

USD/CHF remains sidelined around 0.9415, struggling between the 200-DMA and the key support line, as bears take a breather during Monday’s Asian session.

Even so, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair’s failure to cross the 200-DMA, despite bouncing off an upward sloping support line from January 13, teases sellers as the MACD flashes bearish signals.

It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) is nearly oversold and hence the quote’s immediate downside appears limited, which in turn highlights the aforementioned support line around 0.9370.

In a case where the USD/CHF bears manage to conquer the 0.9370 support, a downward trajectory towards January’s top near 0.9345 appears imminent before highlighting March’s low of 0.9195.

On the contrary, a daily closing beyond the 200-DMA resistance level surrounding 0.9435 isn’t an open invitation to the USD/CHF bulls as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of January-May upside, close to 0.9465, offers an extra hurdle to the north.

Even if the quote rises past 0.9465, successful trading beyond June’s low of 0.9495, as well as the 0.9500 threshold, appears important for the USD/CHF bulls to retake control.

USD/CHF: Daily chart

Trend: Further weakness expected

 

23:52
Japan’s GDP expands 0.5% QoQ in Q2 vs. 0.6% expected

Japan's economy rebounded firmly by 0.5% in the second quarter after contracting 0.1% in the first, with economists forecasting quarterly growth of 0.6%.

On an annualized basis, the world’s third-largest economy grew 2.2% against 2.5% expected and a -0.5% contraction recorded in the previous quarter.

The country’s GDP deflator arrived at -0.4% YoY in Q2 vs. -0.2% expected and -0.5% prior.

Market reaction

In an immediate reaction to the Japanese GDP data, USD/JPY is trading at daily lows near 133.30, down 0.14% on the day.

Japan's yen rose around 1% against the dollar last week, posting its third weekly rise in four, amid expectations of a less aggressive Fed rate hike path after easing US inflation outlook.

23:51
Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) came in at -0.4%, below expectations (-0.2%) in 2Q
23:51
Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized below expectations (2.5%) in 2Q: Actual (2.2%)
23:51
Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.5%, below expectations (0.6%) in 2Q
23:33
WTI crude oil sellers approach $91.00 amid mixed clues
  • WTI holds lower ground after snapping two-day uptrend on Friday.
  • Aramco’s hopes of higher energy demand fail to recall oil buyers amid market’s fears of recession.
  • OPEC, IEA downgraded yearly demand forecasts, Fed hawks continue to ignore softer inflation.
  • FOMC Minutes, US-China headlines will be crucial for near-term directions.

WTI crude oil remains pressured at around $91.15, down for the second consecutive day, as traders await fresh clues for clear directions during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, black gold recently ignored price-positive headlines from one of the world’s key oil companies from Saudi Arabia.

Amin H. Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, said, “Oil demand to continue to grow for the rest of the decade, despite downward economic pressures on short-term global forecasts.” His comments should have helped the black gold buyers but could not amid offbeat markets.

That said, downbeat demand forecasts for 2022 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), published on Thursday, appear to weigh on the quote. OPEC said that it lowered the 2022 full-year demand growth forecast to 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 3.36 million bpd reported previously, per Reuters. "2023 world oil demand to rise by 2.7 million bpd, unchanged from the previous forecast," the forecasts add. The OPEC update also mentioned that the 2022 global economic growth forecast was lowered to 3.1% (prev. 3.5%), 2023 view was trimmed to 3.1% with significant downside risks prevailing.

On the other hand, the EIA said that it expects the global oil demand to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2023 to surpass the pre-Covid levels at 101.8 million bps. “Demand growth is expected to slow from 5.1 mln bpd in 1Q22 to just 40,000 bpd by 4Q22,” adds EIA. The report also mentioned that the world oil supply hit a post-pandemic high of 100.5 million bpd in July.

It’s worth noting that receding inflation fears in the US and improvement in China’s covid conditions, however, put a floor under the energy benchmark’s prices. Even so, the hawkish Fedspeak and cautious mood ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes seem to challenge the bulls.

While portraying the mood, Wall Street closed firmer but the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses at the latest. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields closed mildly negative, down 5.6 basis points (bps) to 2.83%, but remains sidelined at around 2.84% at the latest.

Moving on, the WTI crude oil traders will pay attention to China’s monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July will offer immediate directions.

Technical analysis

A convergence of the five-week-old descending trend line and the 21-DMA restricts the short-term WTI upside to around $93.50. That said, the oil bears are on their way to the $90.00 threshold before challenging the monthly low of $86.40.

 

23:32
United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY): 8.2% (August) vs previous 9.3%
23:10
Silver Price Analysis: Mildly offered below $21.00 inside monthly rising wedge
  • Silver price retreats from daily top as buyers step back inside a bearish chart pattern.
  • RSI suggests further grinding towards the north, 100-DMA adds to the upside filters.
  • 50-DMA acts as a validation point for further downside past $20.48 key support.

Silver price (XAG/USD) consolidates recent gains around a six-week high, holding lower ground near $20.80 amid Monday’s Asian session.

In doing so, the bright metal seesaws inside a one-month-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern.

However, the successful trading above the 50-DMA joins the firmer RSI line, not overbought, to keep buyers hopeful.

That said, a convergence of the stated wedge’s upper line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of April-July downside, near $21.20-25, appears a tough nut to crack for the XAG/USD bulls.

Even if the silver buyers manage to cross the $21.25 hurdle, the 100-DMA level near $21.70 could challenge the bullion’s further upside.

Alternatively, a downside break of the $20.50-45 support will confirm the rising wedge breakdown, which in turn suggests (theoretically) a south-run towards $17.80. Though, the 50-DMA level surrounding $20.20 and the $20.00 threshold could test XAG/USD bears.

Also acting as a downside filter is the yearly low near $18.15.

Silver: Daily chart

Trend: Limited upside expected

 

23:04
Germany’s Lindner: Oppose taxing 'excessive' profits

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said in an interview with ZDF over the weekend, "To me, much and possibly everything speaks against a possible excessive profit tax when I think about it closely.”

"It would mean that we would offer up our tax system to arbitrariness," he said.

Additional quotes

"We don't want to - and must make sure that the state does not - benefit financially from this solidarity levy.”

“Will stick to what he saw as tight fiscal spending as far as possible in order not to fan inflation any further.”

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that “Lindner referred to his initiative at the European Union level published on Sunday to try and waive the value-added tax on a new gas levy, which Germany will announce on Monday, to spread the additional energy costs out more evenly.”

Market reaction

The shared currency is little impacted by the above comments, as EUR/USD is trading almost unchanged on the day at 1.0260 so far.

23:01
United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM): -1.3% (August) vs previous 0.4%
22:58
GBP/USD Price Analysis: Contemplating the next direction amid a big week
  • GBP/USD treads water ahead of critical UK data releases.
  • The US dollar holds onto the recent recovery amid US-Sino woes.
  • Impending bull cross could rescue cable bulls but a break above 1.2165 is critical.

GBP/USD is licking its wounds while trading around the weekly close near 1.2140, as the US dollar clings to Friday’s recovery gains in early Asia this Monday.

The greenback staged a solid comeback, despite a strong rally on Wall Street indices, as dollar bulls tracked the rebound in the US Treasury yields across the curve. The end-of-the-week flows helped the US currency to recover after falling hard earlier in the week on expectations of shallower Fed tightening amid soft inflation.

Meanwhile, the UK political uncertainty continues to remain a drag on the pound, despite the less-than-expected contraction in the economy in the second quarter. The British economy shrank -0.1% YoY in Q2 vs. -0.2% expected. With the two finalists vying to become Britain's next prime minister, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, the UK strongly opposed Chinese military drills that followed US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last week.

Looking forward, the UK jobs and inflation data will be closely examined for the next BOE rate hike path while the Fed July meeting’s minutes could steal the limelight this week.

As observed on cable’s daily chart, the bullish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) is on its way to crossing the downward-sloping 50 DMA for the upside, which if materializes on a daily closing basis would confirm a bull cross.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading flat but defends the midline, keeping bulls hopeful.

If buyers manage to hold onto the bearish 50 DMA support at 1.2121, the pair could stage a decent bounce back towards the 1.2150 psychological level.

A break above that will threaten the falling trendline resistance at 1.2165. The next upside target is aligned at 1.2405, the descending 100 DMA.

GBP/USD: Daily chart

Should the 50 DMA support give way, the 21 DMA at 1.2109 will come to the immediate rescue of GBP bulls.

Daily closing below the latter will kickstart a fresh downtrend towards the August 6 low of 1.2003, below which the July 26 low of 1.1953 could be tested.

GBP/USD: Additional technical levels

 

22:54
USD/CAD struggles below 1.2800 despite softer oil prices, anxiety ahead of Fed Minutes
  • USD/CAD remains directionless after posting the biggest weekly loss in 2022.
  • Oil prices fail to cheer hopes of more demand amid mixed macros, cautious mood ahead of FOMC Minutes.
  • China’s monthly data dump to offer immediate directions.

USD/CAD seesaws around 1.2770-80 during Monday’s initial Asian session as bears take a breather after the biggest weekly fall in eight months. The Loonie pair’s latest inaction could also be linked to the market’s anxiety ahead of the key data/events scheduled for publishing, as well as mixed headlines released during the weekend. It’s worth noting that the quote’s latest performance ignores the recently softer prices of Canada’s main export item, WTI crude oil.

That said, the WTI crude oil prices remain pressured towards $91.00, down 0.25% intraday after staging a weekly rebound. In doing so, the black gold ignores upbeat comments from Amin H. Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco who said, “Oil demand to continue to grow for the rest of the decade, despite downward economic pressures on short-term global forecasts.”

Elsewhere, chatters of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, as signaled by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), appeared to have favored the risk-on mood. Also positive for the mood were headlines suggesting improved coronavirus conditions in China's financial hub Shanghai. However, the increased count of the US lawmakers who is visiting Taiwan challenges the sentiment.

It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s latest run-up appeared to justify the US dollar’s broad weakness amid softer inflation data. The reason could be linked to the hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers.

On Friday, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Thomas Barkin said that he wants to raise interest rates further to bring inflation under control. Even so, the policymaker added that he will watch the US economic data to decide how big a rate hike to support at the Fed's next meeting in September. "I'd like to see a period of sustained inflation under control, and until we do that I think we are just going to have to move rates into restrictive territory," Barkin told CNBC, per Reuters.

Previously San Francisco Fed President Mary Day backed opportunities of witnessing another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike in September, while also suggesting an upfront 0.50% rate hike to be sure.

Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans sounded grim. That said, Fed’s Kashkari mentioned that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need to raise the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Further, Fed policymaker Evens stated, “The economy is almost surely a little more fragile, but would take something adverse to trigger a recession.” Fed’s Evans also called inflation "unacceptably" high.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed firmer but the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses at the latest. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields closed mildly negative, down 5.6 basis points (bps) to 2.83%, but remains sidelined at around 2.84% at the latest.

Looking forward, Canada’s inflation numbers and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes will be crucial for the USD/CAD pair traders. However, China’s monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July will offer immediate directions.

Technical analysis

USD/CAD bears remain hopeful until the quote stays below the 100-DMA level surrounding 1.2805.

 

22:38
NZD/USD bulls flirt with 0.6450 with eyes on RBNZ, FOMC Minutes
  • NZD/USD grinds higher after refreshing two-month low on Friday.
  • NZIER Shadow Board joins market expectations to recommend 50 bps RBNZ rate hike.
  • Easing inflation fears highlight Fed minutes for clear directions.
  • China data dump could direct intraday moves, risk catalysts are important too.

NZD/USD remains sidelined around mid-0.6400s, after posting the biggest weekly gains in two years, as traders remain cautious ahead of the key data/events. In doing so, the Kiwi pair paid a little heed to the recently hawkish comments from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Shadow Board during Monday’s initial Asian session.

NZIER Shadow Board recently recommended that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) should hike the OCR by 50 basis points in August and follow up with further tightening. The NZD/USD pair traders appeared to already know the same and hence ignored the news ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ announcement, today’s monthly data dump from China.

In addition to the pre-RBNZ anxiety, mixed headlines surrounding China and the US also troubled NZD/USD traders in extending the previous weekly gains.

A probable meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, as signaled by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), appeared to have favored the risk-on mood. Also positive for the mood were headlines suggesting improved coronavirus conditions in China's financial hub Shanghai.

However, the increased count of the US lawmakers who is visiting Taiwan challenges the sentiment.

During the last week, softer prints of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producers Price Index (PPI) managed to ease the market’s fears and favored the Antipodeans. In addition to that, the hawkish bias for this week’s RBNZ offered additional help to the NZD/USD bulls in leading the G10 currency pairs.

Even so, Even so, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he wants to raise interest rates further to bring inflation under control. Even so, the policymaker added that he will watch the US economic data to decide how big a rate hike to support at the Fed's next meeting in September. "I'd like to see a period of sustained inflation under control, and until we do that I think we are just going to have to move rates into restrictive territory," Barkin told CNBC, per Reuters.

Previously San Francisco Fed President Mary Day backed opportunities of witnessing another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike in September, while also suggesting an upfront 0.50% rate hike to be sure.

Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans sounded grim. That said, Fed’s Kashkari mentioned that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need to raise the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Further, Fed policymaker Evens stated, “The economy is almost surely a little more fragile, but would take something adverse to trigger a recession.” Fed’s Evans also called inflation "unacceptably" high.

With this, Wall Street closed firmer but the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses at the latest. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields closed mildly negative, down 5.6 basis points (bps) to 2.83%, but remains sidelined at around 2.84% at the latest.

Looking forward, China’s monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July will offer immediate directions. However, major attention will be given to the RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision, amid hopes of a 0.50% rate hike. Also important will be to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

Technical analysis

A downward sloping resistance line from late April, around 0.6455 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the NZD/USD bulls amid nearly overbought RSI. The same requires the Kiwi pair buyers to remain cautious while the sellers can expect a pullback towards the high marked in mid-June around 0.6395.

 

22:30
New Zealand Business NZ PSI: 51.2 (July) vs previous 55.4
22:28
Saudi Aramco’s CEO: Oil demand to continue to grow for the rest of the decade

Amin H. Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, said on Sunday that he expects “oil demand to continue to grow for the rest of the decade, despite downward economic pressures on short-term global forecasts.”

Additional comments

Will reduce debt and invest in a vast expansion of its production capacity.

Global oil demand is robust, particularly from Asia.

If needed, Saudi Aramco can pump oil at full capacity.

Aramco can produce 12 million barrels per day whenever the saudi government requests it.

Saudi Aramco's oil production capacity will be 12.3 million barrels per day in 2025.

Working towards increasing crude oil maximum sustainable capacity from 12 mn bbls/day to 13 mn (by 2027).

22:19
NZIER: Recommends RBNZ to hike OCR by 50 bps in August

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER, the Shadow Board, recommended that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) should hike the OCR by 50 basis points in August and follow up with further tightening.

Key takeaways

The majority view was that a 50 basis points OCR increase in the August meeting is warranted, with only two members recommending a different quantum of tightening (25 basis points and 75 basis points each).

Shadow Board members highlighted the strong inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy as justification for their recommendation for further tightening over the coming year.

Regarding where the OCR should be in a year, Shadow Board members’ views ranged from 3 percent to 4.25 percent.

Signs of slowing in parts of the New Zealand economy highlight the balancing act faced by the Reserve Bank in controlling inflation in the current supply-constrained environment.

Market reaction

NZD/USD remains pressured near-daily lows of 0.6446, at the time of writing, down 0.09% on the day. Looming US-China risks over Taiwan remain a major concern for the market at the start of the week.

22:14
AUD/USD pokes key hurdle above 0.7100 ahead of China data dump, RBA/Fed Minutes
  • AUD/USD bulls attack 200-DMA, sidelined near two-month high.
  • Market sentiment dwindles ahead of the key data/events, amid mixed updates surrounding China, US.
  • Softer US inflation numbers weighed on hawkish Fed bets but policymakers backed aggressive rate hikes, highlighting this week’s Fed Minutes.
  • China’s monthly Retail Sales, Industrial Production can entertain intraday traders, RBA Minutes, Aussie jobs report will be crucial.

AUD/USD grinds higher past 0.7100 as traders await the key catalysts scheduled for release during the day, as well as the week, after buyers cheered the biggest weekly jump since late 2020. That said, China’s monthly data dump could direct intraday moves while Minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be important for the weekly moves. Also critical will be the monthly employment numbers from Australia.

The Aussie pair posted the biggest weekly gains in nearly two years as market sentiment improved on receding hawkish bets on the Fed’s next moves, mainly due to the softer US inflation data. Also keeping the AUD/USD bulls hopeful was an absence of major negatives concerning the US-China ties, as well as firmer equities and softer bond yields.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Producers Price Index (PPI) both the top-tier inflation gauges from the US eased in July, which in turn took some pressure off the Fed policymakers to boost the rates faster amid the looming recession woes. As a result, markets cheered the receding fears of higher rates, which in turn joined the upbeat performance of Wall Street and softer bond coupons to propel the AUD/USD prices despite softer Inflation Expectations for August at home.

Recently, the August preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) edged higher to 55.1 (flash) from 51.5 in July and the market expectation of 52.5. Further details revealed that the one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to a six-month low of 5.0% from 5.2%, while the five-year inflation outlook edged up to 3.0% from 2.9%.

Even so, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he wants to raise interest rates further to bring inflation under control. Even so, the policymaker added that he will watch the US economic data to decide how big a rate hike to support at the Fed's next meeting in September. "I'd like to see a period of sustained inflation under control, and until we do that I think we are just going to have to move rates into restrictive territory," Barkin told CNBC, per Reuters.

Previously San Francisco Fed President Mary Day backed opportunities of witnessing another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike in September, while also suggesting an upfront 0.50% rate hike to be sure.

Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans sounded grim. That said, Fed’s Kashkari mentioned that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need to raise the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Further, Fed policymaker Evens stated, “The economy is almost surely a little more fragile, but would take something adverse to trigger a recession.” Fed’s Evans also called inflation "unacceptably" high.

 Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed on the positive side and the US 10-year Treasury yields closed mildly negative, down 5.6 basis points (bps) to 2.83% at the latest.

Moving on, China’s monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July will offer immediate directions. However, major attention will be given to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes. Also important will be Tuesday’s RBA Minutes, Australia’s Wage Price Index for the second quarter, up for publishing on Wednesday, as well as Thursday’s Aussie jobs report.

Given the latest risk-on mood, as well as mixed headlines surrounding China and the US, AUD/USD traders should cheer hints of further rate hikes from the RBA and the Fed’s cautious mood.

Also read: Weekend News: China, Taiwan gain major attention

Technical analysis

Repeated failures to cross the 200-DMA hurdle, surrounding 0.7120, join the sluggish RSI at the higher end to suggest that the AUD/USD bulls are running out of steam. The pullback moves, however, remain elusive until the quote stays beyond the previous resistance line from late April, at 0.6990 by the press time.

 

21:46
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls keep reins above 1.0220 support confluence
  • EUR/USD remains sidelined after ending the week on a negative note, despite refreshing monthly peak.
  • Convergence of 21-DMA, one-month-old ascending trend line restricts immediate downside.
  • Descending resistance line from May-end guards immediate upside, three-month-old ascending trend line, 50% Fibonacci retracement appears tough nut to crack for bulls.
  • MACD, RSI hints at the pair’s further upside momentum.

EUR/USD remains sidelined around 1.0260 after a softer end to the positive week, amid cautious sentiment ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

The major currency pair’s latest moves are clubbed between the 1.0220 support and the 1.0315 resistance levels.

That said, a convergence of the 21-DMA and a one-month-old ascending trend line restricts the immediate downside. On the contrary, the 50-DMA and Descending resistance line from late May questions the EUR/USD bulls.

It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals and the firmer RSI (14) line, not overbought, appear to keep the buyers hopeful.

That said, a clear upside break of the 1.0315 hurdle could propel the quote towards an upward sloping support-turned-resistance line from mid-May and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of May-July downside, near 1.0375.

On the flip side, a daily closing below 1.0220 appears necessary for the EUR/USD bears to retake control.

Following that, multiple levels around 1.0120 and 1.0100 could challenge the pair’s further downside.

In a case where the EUR/USD pair remains weak past 1.0100, the 1.0000 parity level and the yearly low of 0.9952 will be in focus.

Overall, EUR/USD buyers are in the driver’s seat but the road to the north appears bumpy.

EUR/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Limited upside expected

 

21:27
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls attack $1,800 on softer US dollar, Fed Minutes eyed
  • Gold price ended the week on a firmer footing as inflation numbers drowned the US dollar.
  • Fed policymakers tried to defend the hawks but markets awaited FOMC Minutes for confirmation.
  • Hint on the size of the next rate hike will be closely watched in the Minutes.
  • China’s monthly data dump will offer immediate directions amid mixed Sino-American updates, easing of covid-19 restrictions in Shanghai.

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds onto the recent upside momentum around $1,800 as it begins the weekly trading around a monthly high, after a four-week uptrend. That said, the metal’s latest advances could be linked to the market’s receding hawkish bias on the Fed’s next move considering the latest softness in the headline inflation data, despite the hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers.

Be it the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Producers Price Index (PPI), both the top-tier inflation gauges from the US have eased in July. The same took some pressure off the Fed policymakers to boost the rates faster amid the looming recession woes. The same joined the absence of major negatives from the geopolitical front to help build the market’s sentiment and favor the XAU/USD bulls.

That said, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he wants to raise interest rates further to bring inflation under control. Even so, the policymaker added that he will watch the US economic data to decide how big a rate hike to support at the Fed's next meeting in September. "I'd like to see a period of sustained inflation under control, and until we do that I think we are just going to have to move rates into restrictive territory," Barkin told CNBC, per Reuters.

While data this week showing inflation did not accelerate in July was "welcome," Barkin said, he would want to see inflation running at the Fed's 2% target for "some time" before stopping rate hikes.

Previously San Francisco Fed President Mary Day backed opportunities of witnessing another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike in September, while also suggesting an upfront 0.50% rate hike to be sure.

Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans sounded grim. That said, Fed’s Kashkari mentioned that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need to raise the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Further, Fed policymaker Evens stated, “The economy is almost surely a little more fragile, but would take something adverse to trigger a recession.” Fed’s Evans also called inflation "unacceptably" high.

It’s worth noting that the August preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) edged higher to 55.1 (flash) from 51.5 in July and the market expectation of 52.5. Further details revealed that the one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to a six-month low of 5.0% from 5.2%, while the five-year inflation outlook edged up to 3.0% from 2.9%.

Elsewhere, mixed updates surrounding the US-China tussles and the Biden-Xi meeting, as well as easing covid-led restrictions in Shanghai appeared to have offered a quiet start to the week.

Also read: Weekend News: China, Taiwan gain major attention

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed on the positive side and the US 10-year Treasury yields closed mildly negative, down 5.6 basis points (bps) to 2.83% at the latest.

Looking forward, China’s monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July will offer immediate directions. However, major attention will be given to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

Technical analysis

Gold price remains successfully above the 50-DMA nearby support, around $1,782 by the press time, even after retreating from a one-month-old resistance line, close to $1,814 at the latest.

Given the firmer RSI and the MACD signals, the XAU/USD bulls are likely on the way to crossing the immediate hurdle.

However, the RSI line approaches the overbought region and hence a downward sloping resistance line from late April, near $1,825, could be a tough nut to crack for the gold buyers.

Even if the bulls manage to cross the $1,825 resistance line, a convergence of the 200-DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July downside, near $1,840-43, will be a major challenge for the XAU/USD bulls.

Meanwhile, a downside break of the 50-DMA support around $1,782, could quickly fetch the quote towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,755.

Following that, the $1,714 and the $1,700 threshold could entertain the gold bears before directing them to the yearly low near $1,680.

Gold: XAI/USD chart

Trend: Further upside expected

 

20:59
Weekend News: China, Taiwan gain major attention

Having heard inflation as the major catalyst during the last week, geopolitical factors surrounding the US-China ties and the covid woes in Beijing are back in focus after the latest developments. Headlines surrounding the US tax bill’s passage and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s readiness for review also crossed wires and seemed interesting too.

Among them, a Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) piece suggesting a probable meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping gained a major attention.

The news said, “Chinese officials are making plans for Xi Jinping to visit Southeast Asia and meet face-to-face with President Biden in November, according to people familiar with the preparations, in what would mark the Chinese leader’s first international trip in nearly three years and his first in-person meeting with Mr. Biden since the American leader’s inauguration.”

On the other hand, Nikkei Asia came out with the news suggesting the increased count of the US lawmakers who are visiting Taiwan after the dramatic visit of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. “A delegation of American lawmakers is visiting Taiwan just 12 days after a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that angered China,” said the news.

Nikkei Asia also added that the five-member delegation, led by Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, will meet senior leaders to discuss U.S.-Taiwan relations, regional security, trade, investment and other issues, the American Institute in Taiwan said.

Elsewhere, Reuters conveyed improved coronavirus conditions in China's financial hub Shanghai as the policymakers announced, per the news, that they will reopen all primary, middle and high schools, kindergartens and nurseries on September 1 after months of COVID-19 closures. “Shanghai shut all schools in mid-March before the city's two-month lockdown to combat its worst COVID outbreak in April and May,” Reuters added.

It should be noted that the US House passed the Climate and Tax Bill and sends it to Biden.

On a different page, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey would be “open to a review” of the central bank’s mandate after Foreign Secretary Liz Truss criticized its approach to inflation, the Telegraph reported, citing a person familiar with the situation, per Bloomberg.

Bailey’s reported remarks follow comments by Truss to the Telegraph this month that she would “look again” at the BOE’s mandate “to make sure it is tough enough on inflation,” per Bloomberg News. The piece also mentioned that price gains are currently approaching double digits and forecast to peak at 13.3% in October, more than six times the BOE’s target.”

Also read: Gold Weekly Forecast: Next direction depends on September Fed hike bets

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