Forex-novosti i prognoze od 19-01-2012

The euro strengthened to a two-week high against the dollar and the yen as Spain raised more than its maximum target at a debt sale, boosting optimism the region’s sovereign-debt crisis is being contained. Spain sold 6.61 billion euros ($8.5 billion) of debt due in 2016, 2019 and 2022, exceeding the maximum target of 4.5 billion euros set for the auctions. Investors bid for 3.2 times the amount of 2016 notes allotted, versus 1.7 times last week. Demand for the 2022 bond was 2.2 times the amount sold, from 1.5 in November. French borrowing costs declined as the nation sold 7.97 billion euros of medium and long-term securities.

The Dollar Index declined for a third day after U.S. inflation was little changed in December, giving the Federal Reserve more room to keep interest rates at virtually zero. The dollar weakened against most of its major peers as the outlook for interest rates spurred investors to seek higher- yielding assets. The central bank’s rate-setting committee meets Jan. 24-25. It has said it will keep the benchmark rate at a record low through at least mid-2013. The U.S. consumer price index was little changed for a second month, Labor Department data showed today in Washington.

European stocks gained for a fourth day, extending a five-month high for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as Spain and France sold bonds at lower yields and fewer Americans than forecast filed claims for jobless benefits.

France auctioned 7.97 billion euros of two-, three- and four-year notes in its first sale of medium- and long-term debt after losing its AAA rating at Standard & Poor’s last week. Yields fell on all maturities.

Spain sold 6.6 billion euros of bonds maturing in 2016, 2019 and 2022 today, compared with a maximum target for the sale of 4.5 billion euros. The yields on the 2022 and 2019 securities declined, while the 2016 borrowing costs increased.

In the U.S., initial jobless-benefit claims plunged by 50,000 to 352,000 in the week ended Jan. 14, the lowest level since April 2008, Labor Department figures showed. The median forecast of 41 economists in a Bloomberg News survey had projected a reading of 384,000.

Bank of America Corp., the second-largest U.S. lender, swung to a fourth-quarter profit as the company sold assets and built capital faster than expected.

National benchmark indexes rose in all of Europe’s 18 western markets, except Iceland. France’s CAC 40 increased 2 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.7 percent, while Germany’s DAX Index (DAX) climbed 1 percent.

Commerzbank surged 15 percent to 1.62 euros, the biggest jump since October. Germany’s second-largest lender said the measures it can take to boost capital or reduce the equivalent in risk-weighted assets by June 30 total 6.3 billion euros, outstripping the 5.3 billion euros required by the European Banking Authority.

BNP Paribas SA jumped 8.2 percent to 34.70 euros while Deutsche Bank AG rallied 8.4 percent to 32.48 euros. Barclays Plc gained 10 percent to 221.35 pence and UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, gained 8.1 percent to 12.57 francs as Morgan Stanley named them all among its “most preferred” bank stocks.

Alstom jumped 14 percent to 28.15 euros, the biggest gain since 2008. The company said it has more than 1 billion euros of announced contracts yet to be booked in its fiscal year, which runs through March.

Porsche SE rose 8.3 percent to 47.10 euros after Manager Magazin reported that the German sports-car maker offered to settle claims by U.S. investors tied to its failed takeover attempt for Volkswagen AG in 2008. Porsche made the offer dependent on the investors waiving possible new claims in the future, the magazine reported.

U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s Index higher for a third straight day, as Bank of America Corp. rallied after swinging to a profit and jobless claims plunged to the lowest level in almost four years.

Besides earnings optimism, stocks rose today as fewer Americans than forecast filed first-time applications for unemployment benefits last week, easing concern that post- holiday firings were on the rise. Equities briefly erased gains as the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 7.3 from 6.8 in December, trailing the median forecast for a reading of 10.3.

Dow 12,598.55 +19.60 +0.16%, Nasdaq 2,790.06 +20.35 +0.73%, S&P 500 1,313.44 +5.40 +0.41%

Bank of America (ВАС) rallied 3.5 percent, the most in the Dow, to $7.04. Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan is cutting assets, expenses and staff while raising capital to meet demands from regulators for a larger cushion against unexpected losses. So far, $50 billion in holdings are gone, and Moynihan’s Project New BAC will eliminate at least 30,000 jobs as the firm seeks to save $5 billion annually.

Morgan Stanley climbed 4.2 percent to $18.08. Morgan Stanley posted the only increase in trading revenue excluding accounting gains among the five largest Wall Street banks in 2011, making progress toward Chairman and Chief Executive Officer James Gorman’s goal of boosting market share.

EBay Inc. jumped 4.1 percent to $31.59. The largest Internet marketplace reported sales and profit that topped analysts’ estimates, buoyed by a campaign to promote its expanded retail offerings and broader use of the PayPal online- payments service.

Johnson Controls Inc. plunged 8 percent to $32.75. The largest U.S. auto supplier lowered its forecast for profit for the fiscal year on weakening demand for replacement batteries and a reduced outlook for vehicle assembly in Europe.

Oil rose as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell and U.S. inventories dropped for the first time in four weeks.

Oil advanced as much as 1.5 percent as the Labor Department reported jobless claims plunged by 50,000 to 352,000 in the week ended Jan. 14, the lowest level since April 2008. Oil supplies fell 3.44 million barrels to 331.2 million last week, the Energy Department said. Gasoline stockpiles climbed to a 10-month high.

Crude for February delivery gained to $102.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent oil for March settlement advanced 35 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $111.01 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

U.S. stock futures rose as Bank of America Corp. (BAC) rallied after swinging to a profit and after jobless claims plunged to the lowest level since 2008.

Bank of America rallied 5.6% . Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan is cutting assets, expenses and staff while raising capital to meet demands from regulators for a larger cushion against unexpected losses. So far, $50 billion in holdings are gone, and Moynihan’s Project New BAC will eliminate at least 30,000 jobs as the firm seeks to save $5 billion annually. He’s also aiming to quell disputes over faulty mortgages that have cost the bank about $40 billion.

Morgan Stanley (MS) climbed 7.3%. Morgan Stanley posted the only increase in trading revenue excluding accounting gains among the five largest Wall Street banks in 2011, making progress toward Chairman and Chief Executive Officer James Gorman’s goal of boosting market share.

World markets:

Nikkei   8,640 +89.10 +1.04%

Hang Seng 19,943 +256.03 +1.30%

Shanghai Composite 2,296 +29.69 +1.31%

FTSE  5,730 +27.31 +0.48%

CAC  3,320 +55.25 +1.69%

DAX 6,399 +44.31 +0.70%

Crude oil: $101.80 (+1,2%).

Gold: $1657.70 (-0,1%).

Data:

09:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln November -7.5 0.5 -1.8

The euro strengthened  as Spain raised more than its maximum target at a debt sale, boosting optimism the region’s sovereign debt crisis is being contained.

Spain sold 6.61 billion euros of debt due in 2016, 2019 and 2022, exceeding the maximum target of 4.5 billion euros set for the auctions. Investors bid for 3.2 times the amount of 2016 notes allotted, versus 1.7 times last week. Demand for the 2022 bond was 2.2 times the amount sold, from 1.5 in November.

French borrowing costs declined as the nation sold 7.97 billion euros of medium and long-term securities.

The common currency advanced as Greece began a second day of talks with private creditors in a bid to reach an accord to lower its debt levels.

The Dollar Index fell as stocks in Europe rose.

EUR/USD: the pair grown, showed high above $1,2900.

GBP/USD: the pair grown, showed  high in $1,5460 area.

USD/JPY: the pair returned to area of session high, but not managed to overcome Y76.90.

EUR/USD $1.2650, $1.2700, $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2875, $1.3050 

USD/JPY Y76.50, Y76.55, Y76.75, Y77.00 

AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0300, $1.0350, $1.0400, $1.0410, $1.0430

GBP/USD $1.5335, $1.5400, $1.5500

USD/CHF Chf0.9340

USD/CAD C$1.0100

00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation January +2.4% +2.8%

00:30 AUD Changing the number of employed December -6.3 +10.3 -29.3

00:30 AUD Unemployment rate December 5.3% 5.3% 5.2%

The dollar maintained a two-day decline against the euro amid signs the U.S. economy is gaining momentum and as Asian stocks extended a global rally, damping demand for haven currencies.

The Institute of International Finance, which represents private creditors to Greece, resumed negotiations yesterday after talks last week broke off over failure to agree with the government about how much money investors will lose by swapping their bonds. Greece could forge an agreement on a voluntary debt swap with creditors by the end of this week, one finance ministry official told reporters in Athens yesterday.

France is scheduled to auction bonds today maturing in more than a year for the first time since S&P stripped the nation of its AAA credit rating on Jan. 13. The country will offer debt whose maturities range from 2014 to 2040. Spain plans to sell as much as 4.5 billion euros ($5.8 billion) of notes and bonds maturing in 2016, 2019 and 2022 today.

Australia’s dollar declined for the first time in three days after a government report showed the nation’s employers unexpectedly cut jobs in December. The number of people employed in Australia fell by 29,300, the statistics bureau said today. That compares with the median estimate for an increase of 10,000 in a Bloomberg News survey of 23 economists. The jobless rate held at a revised 5.2 percent.

The so-called Aussie fell against all 16 of its most-traded peers before a Jan. 25 report on consumer prices that may prompt investors to increase bets on an interest-rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia next month. Australia’s underlying inflation slowed in the third quarter to the weakest pace in 14 years. The average of two core measures of consumer prices closely watched by the RBA showed a 0.3 percent gain in the three months through September from the previous quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said Oct. 26.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair was in a range $1.2840-$1.2880.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair was in a range $1.5420-$1.5445.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair was in range Y76.70-Y76.80.

EMU data starts at 0900GMT Thursday with the ECB current account data, which is released at the same time as the ECB publishes the

Monthly Bulletin. Also at 0900GMT, the Norges Bank publishes its Q4 2011 Bank Lending Survey. US data starts at 1330GMT with the weekly Jobless Claims as well as Housing Starts, Building Permits and the Consumer Price Index. The pace of housing starts is expected to fall slightly to a 680,000 annual rate in December after jumping 9.3% in November. The NAHB index rose in December to its highest level since May 2010, while warm weather in parts of the country should give a boost to home building. The CPI is expected to rise 0.1% in December after holding steady in November. Energy prices are expected to decline further in the current month after plunging in November. The core CPI is expected to also rise 0.1%.

Yesterday the euro gained for a second day versus the dollar and yen as the International Monetary Fund proposed raising its lending capacity by as much as $500 billion to protect the global economy amid Europe’s debt turmoil. The 17-nation currency rallied against most of its major peers as Greek officials resumed negotiations with bondholders. The euro rallied versus the dollar and yen as an IMF spokesman said in a statement that the Washington-based lender wants to increase its resources after identifying a potential need for $1 trillion in coming years. The IMF is studying options and will not comment further until it has consulted its members, the fund said.

The dollar fell against the euro on reduced demand for a refuge as U.S. data showed a rebound in industrial production. The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, fell 0.7 percent to 80.522.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair has grown more than on a figure, showed a new week’s high.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair has grown on a figure, fixed above $1.54.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair holds in range Y76.65-Y76.85.

EMU data starts at 0900GMT Thursday with the ECB current account data, which is released at the same time as the ECB publishes the

Monthly Bulletin. Also at 0900GMT, the Norges Bank publishes its Q4 2011 Bank Lending Survey. US data starts at 1330GMT with the weekly Jobless Claims as well as Housing Starts, Building Permits and the Consumer Price Index. The pace of housing starts is expected to fall slightly to a 680,000 annual rate in December after jumping 9.3% in November. The NAHB index rose in December to its highest level since May 2010, while warm weather in parts of the country should give a boost to home building. The CPI is expected to rise 0.1% in December after holding steady in November. Energy prices are expected to decline further in the current month after plunging in November. The core CPI is expected to also rise 0.1%.

Asian stocks rose, with a regional benchmark index set for the highest close in six weeks, as economic reports in the U.S. and Germany beat estimates and oil prices gained.

Fanuc Corp. (6954), a Japanese maker of factory automation systems that gets 75 percent of its sales abroad, rose 4.2 percent.

Inpex Corp. (1605), Japan’s biggest energy explorer, advanced 1.8 percent.

BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), Australia’s No. 1 oil and gas producer, gained 0.8 percent after reporting plans to boost exploration spending.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. surged 7.8 percent after the utility said it will raise power prices.

Most European stocks rose as the International Monetary Fund said it plans to raise as much as $500 billion to expand its lending resources and Greece neared a debt deal with its private creditors.

The IMF aims to increase its resources to safeguard the global economy after identifying a potential need for $1 trillion in financing in coming years, an IMF spokesman said in a statement. The IMF will not comment further until it has consulted its members, the fund said.

Greece is close to a deal with private creditors that would give them cash and securities with a market value of about 32 cents per euro of government debt, according to Bruce Richards, who is on the creditors’ committee and chief executive officer for Marathon Asset Management LP.

The World Bank cut its global growth forecast by the most in three years today, saying that a recession in the euro region threatens to exacerbate a slowdown in emerging markets such as India and Mexico.

The world economy will grow 2.5 percent this year, down from a June estimate of 3.6 percent, the Washington-based institution said. The euro area may contract 0.3 percent, compared with a previous estimate of a 1.8 percent gain. The World Bank cut its outlook for U.S. growth to 2.2 percent from 2.9 percent.

The German government trimmed its forecast for 2012 growth in Europe’s biggest economy to 0.7 percent from a previous 1 percent estimate.

Germany sold two-year notes at a record-low yield today after euro-area ratings downgrades by Standard & Poor’s on Jan. 13. Portugal auctioned its targeted amount of 2.5 billion euros ($3.2 billion) of securities at a sale of three-, six- and 11- month treasury bills.

Accor SA advanced 4.3 percent to 21.97 euros. The French hotelier, which generated 73 percent of its sales from Europe in 2010, said revenue rose 2.5 percent in 2011 and reiterated its forecast for full-year earnings before interest and taxes.

Man Group Plc jumped 6.8 percent to 114.4 pence. The world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund said it will reduce pay and eliminate jobs in a plan to reduce costs by about 10 percent as market turmoil prompted clients to withdraw money.

Commerzbank fell 1.7 percent to 1.41 euros as Moody’s cut Commerzbank’s financial-strength rating to D+ from C-. The rating represents Moody’s opinion of a lender’s intrinsic safety and soundness and doesn’t address the probability of timely repayment of debt, according to the company’s definitions.

Tullow Oil Plc declined 4.2 percent to 1,394 pence, its biggest retreat since Nov. 9. The London-based oil explorer with the highest number of licenses in Africa dropped after delaying full production from its Jubilee field in Ghana by at least a year.

U.S. stocks rose, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its best start to a year since 1987, after confidence among homebuilders topped forecasts, Goldman Sachs (GS) Group Inc. rallied and concern about Europe eased.

Stocks climbed today as confidence among U.S. homebuilders rose in January to the highest level since 2007. Equities extended gains as an official told reporters that Greece’s government could forge an agreement with private creditors by the end of this week after talks resumed in Athens today. The International Monetary Fund is proposing to raise its lending capacity by as much as $500 billion to safeguard the economy.

Goldman Sachs climbed 6.8 percent as earnings beat estimates amid lower compensation costs. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM) Chase & Co. jumped at least 4.6 percent, leading the gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

PulteGroup Inc. and Lennar Corp. added more than 4.3 percent, pacing an advance in homebuilders.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. fell 4.6 percent to $20.30. The world’s biggest custody bank said fourth-quarter earnings declined 26 percent on a restructuring charge and lower revenue from businesses tied to financial markets.

Linear Technology Corp. jumped 12 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $33.32. The maker of semiconductors for industrial equipment and cars forecast fiscal third-quarter sales that would beat analysts’ estimates.

Yahoo! Inc. gained 3.2 percent to $15.92 as Jerry Yang’s exit may remove a barrier to find a buyer or negotiate a sale of stakes in Asian assets valued at more than $10 billion.

Resistance 3: Chf0.9595 (high on Jan 9)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9565 (Jan 11 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9525 (high of the American session on Jan 12)

The current price: Chf0.9469

Support 1: Chf0.9450 (middle line from Jan 11)

Support 2: Chf0.9405 (session low)

Support 3: Chf0.9340 (Dec 30 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3000 (psychological markl)

Resistance 2 : $1.2945 (Jan 5 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2880 (session high)

The current price: $1.2851

Support 1 : $1.2810 (low of the Asian session on Jan 13)

Support 2 : $1.2780 (low of the American session on Jan 18)

Support 3 : $1.2710 (low of the American session on Jan 17)

Change % Change Last

Oil $100.78 +0.19 +0.19%

Gold $1,659.50 -0.40 -0.02%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,551 +84.18 +0.99%

Hang Seng 19,668 +40.24 +0.21%

S&P/ASX 200 4,218 +2.25 +0.05%

CAC 40 3,265 -5.06 -0.15%

DAX 6,355 +21.64 +0.34%

Dow 12,578.95 +96.88 +0.78%

Nasdaq 2,769.71 +41.63 +1.53%

S&P 500 1,308.04 +14.37 +1.11%

00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation January +2.4%

00:30 AUD Changing the number of employed December -6.3 +10.3

00:30 AUD Unemployment rate December 5.3% 5.3%

09:00 EUR Current account, adjusted, bln November -7.5 0.5

09:00 EUR ECB Monthly Report January

13:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) November -0.8% +0.9%

13:30 USD Housing Starts, mln December 0.685 0.685

13:30 USD Building Permits, mln December 0.681 0.675

13:30 USD CPI, m/m December 0.0% +0.2%

13:30 USD CPI, Y/Y December +3.4% +3.1%

13:30 USD CPI excluding food and energy, m/m December +0.2% +0.1%

13:30 USD CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y December +2.2% +2.2%

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 14.01.2012 399 389

15:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey January 10.3 11.3

16:00 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change 13.01.12 +5.0