Forex-novosti i prognoze od 29-12-2011

European stocks advanced for the fourth time in five days as business activity in the U.S. expanded more than forecast. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said its business barometer decreased to 62.5 this month from 62.6 in November. Readings above 50 signal growth. Economists forecast the gauge would fall to 61, according to the median of 49 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. A U.S. Labor Department report showed that first applications for unemployment benefits increased 381,000 last week, after falling to the lowest since April 2008 in the previous period. In Europe, Italy missed its fundraising target at the auction of debt maturing between 2014 and 2022, while its borrowing costs eased. The Treasury in Rome sold 6 percent bonds due in 2014 to yield 5.62 percent, down from 7.89 percent at the previous sale on Nov. 29 and priced its 5 percent 2022 bond to yield 6.98 percent, compared with 7.56 percent on Nov. 29. The Treasury also sold bonds due in 2021 and a floating-rate security due 2018. Italy’s bond sale followed yesterday’s auction of bills, where yields fell.

National benchmark indexes advanced in 16 of the 18 Western European (SXXP) markets today. Germany’s DAX rose 1.3 percent, while France’s CAC 40 added 1.8 percent. The Swiss Market Index was little changed.

Bayer AG, Germany’s largest drugmaker, increased 2.9 percent to 48.73 euros after filing a supplemental new drug application together with Johnson & Johnson for the Xarelto blood thinner drug to treat Acute Coronary Syndrome.

Yara International ASA, the biggest publicly traded nitrogen-fertilizer maker, rose 1.9 percent to 236.30 kroner and Syngenta AG, the world’s largest producer of crop-protection chemicals, gained 1.1 percent to 274.30 francs.

Fiat retreated 0.9 percent to 3.49 euros after Monica Bosio, a Banca IMI analyst, cut the stock to “hold” from “add.”

Mining shares dropped as copper declined for a second day on the London Metal Exchange. Petropavlovsk Plc slid 3.2 percent to 598 pence.

U.S. stocks advanced, following yesterday’s decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as housing and labor market data signaled the world’s largest economy is weathering Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

Stocks gained after the number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose more than forecast in November. Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits over the past month than at any time in the past three years, a sign the U.S. labor market is on the mend. Italy auctioned 7.02 billion euros ($9 billion) of bonds, falling short of the target, as borrowing costs declined in its final debt sale of the year.

Dow 12,250.75 +99.34 +0.82%, Nasdaq 2,606.28 +16.30 +0.63%, S&P 500 1,259.20 +9.56 +0.77%

Financial, industrial and commodity shares led the gains in the S&P 500 among 10 industries. Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Alcoa Inc. (AA) added at least 0.9 percent. Bank of America rose 2 percent to $5.39, after falling 5.6 percent over the previous two days. Caterpillar, the world’s largest construction and mining-equipment maker, increased 0.9 percent to $90.18. Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, advanced 1.2 percent to $8.62.

A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes jumped 3 percent as all of its 12 stocks gained. PulteGroup Inc. and Lennar Corp. climbed more than 3.4 percent as homebuilders rallied. PulteGroup, the largest homebuilder by revenue, added 4.5 percent to $6.22. Lennar climbed 3.4 percent to $19.62.

Mosaic lost 1.3 percent to $49.63. The world’s largest producer of phosphate fertilizer said it will cut output by as much as 250,000 metric tons through the first quarter of 2012.

Amazon slumped 1.7 percent to $170.92 for the biggest retreat in the S&P 500. Data from ComScore show the online retailer’s fourth-quarter revenue may be $17.9 billion, less than the average analyst estimate of $18.2 billion, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Heather Bellini.

Oil traded near the lowest level in a week in New York as rising U.S. crude inventories outweighed concern that tensions with Iran will lead to a disruption in Middle East exports.

Crude was little changed after falling yesterday as record European Central Bank lending signaled the growing risk of the region’s crisis. Crude inventories rose 9.57 million barrels last week, according to the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute. A U.S. aircraft carrier, which Iran said it spotted during naval exercises, passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Dec. 27 on routine transit, the U.S. 5th Fleet said.

Crude for February delivery was at $99.73 a barrel, up 37 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:25 p.m. London time. The contract closed at $99.36 yesterday, the lowest since Dec. 21. Prices are up 9 percent this year after climbing 15 percent in 2010.

Brent oil for February settlement was unchanged at $107.56 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European contract’s premium to New York crude was $7.85, compared with a record $27.88 on Oct. 14.

EUR/USD $1.2760, $1.3000 

AUD/USD $1.0000

GBP/USD $1.5600

Resistance 3: Y79.00 (Nov 1 high, МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 2: Y78.20/30 (Nov 29 and Dec 23 highs)

Resistance 1: Y77.90 (МА(200) for Н1)

Current price: Y77.78

Support 1:Y77.55 (Dec 28 low)

Support 2:Y77.10 (Dec 8 low)

Support 3:Y76.60 (low of November)

EUR/USD $1.2760, $1.3000 

AUD/USD $1.0000

GBP/USD $1.5600

Nikkei 225 8,399 -24.73 -0.29%

Hang Seng 18,375 -143.58 -0.78%

S&P/ASX 200 4,071 -17.69 -0.43%

Shanghai Composite 2,174 +3.55 +0.16%

The euro stabilized somewhat on Thursday after falling sharply in early Asian morning trade and marking fresh lows against the dollar and the yen with stop-loss selling hitting an otherwise thin holiday market. Traders said there were no new fundamental factors driving the euro's losses after the common currency tumbled in the U.S. Wednesday as enthusiasm waned over a better-than-expected debt auction by Italy.

The downturn also hit euro-yen trading with the common currency hitting a fresh 10-year low of Y100.35, its lowest since June 2001. The euro was at Y100.56 from Y100.95 late Wednesday in New York.

"Many stop-loss orders below Y100.00 could push the euro down sharply against the yen once the level is breached," said one dealer in Tokyo.

The key area of focus is an auction of Italian 10-year bonds, scheduled for later in the day, described by New York-based analyst Omer Esiner of Commonwealth Foreign Exchange as "the real test for Italy." On Wednesday, the Italian Treasury auctioned EUR9 billion ($11.8 billion) of six-month treasury bills at a yield of 3.251%, less than half the amount it paid just a month ago.

The dollar continued its general weakening trend against the yen, meanwhile, sliding to Y77.78 from Y77.94 in New York on Wednesday. The yen has strengthened since the U.S. Treasury said in its semiannual currency report that Japan's currency market intervention was not warranted. Opposition from Washington is expected to make it more difficult for Tokyo to again enter the market to stop the yen's rise.

EUR/USD: on Asian session the pair traded in range $1.2890-$1.2945.

GBP/USD: on Asian session the pair gain.

USD/JPY: on Asian session the pair fell.

Thursday sees the continuing release of the German state CPIs, which lead up to the release of the November flash HICP. Core-European

data also includes ECB M3 data at 0900GMT. US data starts at 1330GMT when initial jobless claims are expected to have fallen 11,000 to 375,000 in the December 24 pre-holiday week. US data continues with the 1500GMT release of NAR Pending Home Sales and also the Kansas City Fed Production Index. The weekly EIA crude oil stocks data is due at 1100GMT, while late US data includes the 2130GMT release of US money supply data.

Yesterday the euro dropped against the yen to the lowest level since 2001 as the European Central Bank’s balance sheet soared to a record after it lent regional banks more money last week to keep credit flowing.

The 17-nation currency fell against the dollar to the least since January as concern increased that the region’s sovereign- debt crisis will curb growth, even as rates fell at an Italian bill sale. The dollar gained as stocks dropped, boosting demand for haven assets. The ECB’s balance sheet expanded to a record 2.73 trillion euros ($3.55 trillion). Lending to euro-area banks jumped 214 billion euros to 879 billion euros in the week ended Dec. 23, the Frankfurt-based ECB said in a statement yesterday. The balance sheet increased by 239 billion euros in the latest period and was 553 billion euros more than three months ago.

Italy sold 9 billion euros of 179-day bills at a rate of 3.251 percent, down from 6.504 percent at the previous auction of similar-maturity debt on Nov. 25. The Treasury also sold 1.7 billion euros of zero-coupon bonds due in September 2013 at a yield of 4.85 percent, versus 7.81 percent on Nov. 25. The nation will auction as much as 8.5 billion euros of debt due between 2014 and 2022 today. Italian 10-year bond yields pared a drop after falling as much as 25 basis points to 6.75 percent. They traded at 6.94 percent, compared with more than 7 percent reached, the level that spurred Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair has fallen to a figure.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair has decreased on two figures.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair has showed a new month’s low, however was restored later.

Thursday sees the continuing release of the German state CPIs, which lead up to the release of the November flash HICP. Core-European

data also includes ECB M3 data at 0900GMT. US data starts at 1330GMT when initial jobless claims are expected to have fallen 11,000 to 375,000 in the December 24 pre-holiday week. US data continues with the 1500GMT release of NAR Pending Home Sales and also the Kansas City Fed Production Index. The weekly EIA crude oil stocks data is due at 1100GMT, while late US data includes the 2130GMT release of US money supply data.

Asian stocks fell for a second day amid slow trading, with the regional benchmark index headed for its biggest annual decline since 2008, after U.S. housing prices fell, damping the earnings outlook for Asia’s exporters.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.6 percent to 113 as of 7:41 p.m. in Tokyo, with all but one of the gauge’s 10 industry groups falling. For the month, the index is heading for a 0.5 percent decline. The measure has dropped 18 percent this year, the most since 2008.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.2 percent today. The gauge was little changed yesterday in New York as better-than-estimated U.S. consumer confidence overshadowed a decline in home prices and concern about Europe’s debt crisis.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.2 percent after a report showed factory output fell 2.6 percent in November as Thailand’s floods disrupted supply chains at manufacturers such as Sony and Honda Motor Co. Trading volume on the Nikkei was 43 percent below the 100-day average.

South Korea’s Kospi Index lost 0.9 percent. Yesterday was the last day to buy shares and still get a year-end dividend in 15 percent of the companies included in the 785-member gauge.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 1.3 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 0.6 percent. Markets in Australia and Hong Kong reopened today after a four-day weekend.

Exporters dropped after the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities dropped 3.4 percent in the year ended October after decreasing 3.5 percent in the year ended September, the New York-based group said yesterday.

Sony Corp., Japan’s No. 1 exporter of consumer electronics, dropped 2.4 percent, and Canon Inc., the world’s biggest camera maker, slid 1.6 percent to 3,415 yen.

SK Telecom led declines among firms that have the highest dividend yields among South Korea’s 50 largest publicly traded companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. SK Telecom retreated 6.3 percent to 141,500 won. Rival KT Corp. slipped 4.8 percent to 35,850 won. Korea Exchange Bank fell 5.1 percent to 7,450 won.

China Mengniu Dairy plunged 24 percent to HK$20.00, the biggest loss since September 2008. In a random inspection, the level of a toxin in a batch of the firm’s milk was more than double the nation’s permitted level, an unidentified official at the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine said in an interview with the Xinhua News Agency.

Stocks in the Asian benchmark are valued at 12.6 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 12.8 times for the S&P 500 and 10.5 times for the Stoxx 600. Utilities have lost 27 percent this year, the worst among the 10 industry groups on the Asian benchmark gauge, as Japanese power generators tumbled after a nuclear crisis at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant.

Tokyo Electric Power Co.  fell to the lowest level in at least 37 years after Japan’s trade minister said the utility should consider temporary government control.

European stocks closed little changed after data on U.S. house prices and consumer confidence gave conflicting signals about the strength of the world’s largest economy. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities dropped 3.4 percent from October 2010 after decreasing 3.5 percent in the year ended September, the New York-based group said today. The median forecast of 27 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a 3.2 percent decrease.

Confidence among U.S. consumers rose as an improving job market helped regain all the ground lost following the mid-year government budget battle and credit-rating downgrade. The Conference Board’s index increased to 64.5 this month, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg News survey, from a revised 55.2 reading in November, figures from the New York-based private research group showed. The measure averaged 53.7 during the recession that ended in June 2009

The volume of share trading across Europe was reduced today as U.K. and Irish markets remained closed for a second day following the Christmas holiday.

National benchmark indexes gained in 10 of the 16 western European markets trading today. France’s CAC 40 Index added 0.2 percent and Germany’s DAX advanced 0.4 percent. The Swiss Market Index fell 0.1 percent.

Banco Comercial Portugues rallied 6 percent to 12 euro cents and Banco Espirito Santo surged 10 percent to 1.29 euros. Portugal may recapitalize its banks without becoming a shareholder, Jornal de Negocios reported, without saying where it got the information.

Wacker Chemie AG and Symrise AG led chemical makers higher. The German companies added 1.2 percent to 61.56 euros and 2.3 percent to 20.26 euros, respectively.

UniCredit and Mediobanca lost 4.7 percent to 6.58 euros and 4.5 percent to 4.54 euros, respectively, in Milan trading. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA tumbled 3 percent to 1.27 euros.

Italy plans to sell almost 450 billion euros of debt next year to pay for maturing bonds and bills and cover the government’s budget deficit, Il Sole 24-Ore said, citing an interview with Maria Cannata, director of public debt.

Sky Deutschland AG declined 1.9 percent to 1.39 euros. The company won’t show Paramount Pictures Corp.’s movies in 2012, and the change will damp enthusiasm for its movie channel, according to Financial Times Deutschland. Paramount’s films include “Mission Impossible,” “TinTin” and “Titanic.”

U.S. stocks declined, halting a five-day advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as the European Central Bank’s balance sheet increased to a record after a surge of bank lending to stem the region’s debt crisis.

Equities slumped as the ECB’s balance sheet soared to a record 2.73 trillion euros ($3.55 trillion). The ECB last week awarded 523 banks three-year loans totaling a record 489 billion euros to encourage lending. So far, banks are parking the money back at the ECB. Overnight deposits at the central bank increased to an all-time high of 452 billion euros yesterday.

Earlier today, stock-futures rose as Italy sold 9 billion euros ($11.8 billion) of six-month Treasury bills and borrowing costs fell from the previous auction. A bigger test of the ECB’s lending on demand for European bonds comes tomorrow when Italy sells as much as 8.5 billion euros of longer-maturity debt.

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index sank 1.9 percent as Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Ford Motor Co. slid more than 2.3 percent.

Gauges of commodity shares had the biggest declines among 10 groups in the S&P 500, falling at least 1.8 percent. Metal prices sank as gold futures retreated for a fifth day, the longest slump since 2009. Oil declined for the first time in seven days, in part because of reduced concern that Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz.

Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, retreated 3.1 percent to $8.52. Chevron fell 1.9 percent to $105.96. Freeport- McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world’s largest publicly traded copper miner, dropped 4.1 percent to $36.31.

The KBW Bank Index declined 1.8 percent as all of its 24 stocks fell. Bank of America lost 3.6 percent, the most in the Dow, to $5.29. Citigroup Inc. erased 2.9 percent to $26.13.

Molycorp Inc. slumped 14 percent, the biggest decline in the Russell 1000 Index, to $24.04. The price estimate for the owner of the largest rare-earth deposit outside China was cut to $39 a share from $57 by JPMorgan Chase & Co., which cited pressure on rare earth prices.

Resistance 3: Y78.45 (area of Nov 1-4 high)

Resistance 2: Y78.25 (Dec 23 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.05 (Dec 28 high)

The current price: Y77.77

Support 1:Y77.55 (Dec 28 low)

Support 2:Y77.10 (Dec 8 low)

Support 3:Y76.60 (Nov 18 low)

Comments: the pair is on downtrend. In focus support Y77.55.

Resistance 3: Chf0.9545 (Dec 15 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9480 (Dec 13 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9450 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9425

Support 1: Chf0.9400 (38.2% FIBO Chf0.9450-Chf0.9320)

Support 2: Chf0.9355 (MA (233) H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9320 (Dec 28 low)

Comments: the pair is corrected after yesterday's growth. In focus support Chf0.9400.

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,424 -16.94 -0.20%

Hang Seng 18,519 -110.50 -0.59%

S&P/ASX 200 4,089 -51.65 -1.25%

Shanghai Composite 2,170 +3.81 +0.18%

FTSE 100 5,507 -5.30 -0.10%

CAC 40 3,071 -32.03 -1.03%

DAX 5,771 -118.49 -2.01%

Dow 12,153.46 -137.89 -1.12%

Nasdaq 2,589.98 -35.22 -1.34%

S&P 500 1,249.67 -15.76 -1.25%

10 Year Yield 1.91% -0.10 --

Oil $99.45 +0.09 +0.09%

Gold $1,551.10 -13.00 -0.83%