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Forex-novosti i prognoze od 03-01-2012
The dollar fell the most more than a month against the euro as signs manufacturing is expanding in the U.S. and China damped the appeal of safer assets. The greenback weakened versus all of its most-traded peers after a U.S. factory gauge rose at the fastest in six months. Data earlier this week showed gains in factory indexes for China and India. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 53.9 in December from 52.7 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona- based group’s data showed today. China’s purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing increased to 50.3 last month from 49 in November, the logistics federation said Jan. 1. India’s PMI for manufacturing rose to the highest in six months, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said yesterday.
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, dropped 0.8 percent to 79.625.
The euro advanced from an 11-year low versus the yen after German unemployment fell more than forecast. The euro extended gains after the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said German unemployment fell in December more than economists forecast. The number of people out of work slid a seasonally adjusted 22,000 to 2.89 million, the agency said.
Australia’s and New Zealand’s dollars rose to the strongest since November.
The dollar fell the most more than a month against the euro as signs manufacturing is expanding in the U.S. and China damped the appeal of safer assets. The greenback weakened versus all of its most-traded peers after a U.S. factory gauge rose at the fastest in six months. Data earlier this week showed gains in factory indexes for China and India. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 53.9 in December from 52.7 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona- based group’s data showed today. China’s purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing increased to 50.3 last month from 49 in November, the logistics federation said Jan. 1. India’s PMI for manufacturing rose to the highest in six months, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said yesterday.
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, dropped 0.8 percent to 79.625.
The euro advanced from an 11-year low versus the yen after German unemployment fell more than forecast. The euro extended gains after the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said German unemployment fell in December more than economists forecast. The number of people out of work slid a seasonally adjusted 22,000 to 2.89 million, the agency said.
Australia’s and New Zealand’s dollars rose to the strongest since November.
European stocks rose for a fourth day as a report showed that manufacturing in the U.S. expanded in December at the fastest pace in six months.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 53.9 last month from 52.7 in November. France sold 84-, 161- and 315-day treasury bills today. The 10-year yield increased four basis points to 3.28 percent as of 2:05 p.m. London time, rising for a fifth consecutive day. Two- year yields added two basis points to 0.87 percent.
German unemployment fell in December more than economists had forecast as exports of cars and machinery boomed and one of the mildest winters on record helped support jobs in construction.
National benchmark indexes advanced in every western- European market except Greece. Germany’s DAX Index added 1.5 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index climbed 2.3 percent. France’s CAC 40 Index gained 0.7 percent.
BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company, surged 6.2 percent to 1,993 pence, while Rio Tinto, the second-largest, soared 6.4 percent to 3,325 pence. Copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc advanced on the London Metal Exchange.
Carmakers posted the second-best performance of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600 as Polk, a research company based in Southfield, Michigan, predicted that the industry’s sales will rise to 77.7 million vehicles this year, helped by a 16 percent gain in China to 17.9 million.
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) rose 4 percent to 55.29 euros as Sueddeutsche Zeitung said the world’s biggest maker of luxury cars (BMW) expects the automotive market to remain stable in 2012, with growth opportunities in the U.S. and China.
Afren Plc soared 20 percent to 103.2 pence, its largest increase since April 2009 and the best performance in the Stoxx 600 today. The U.K. oil and gas explorer focused on Africa said its aggregate production has reached 55,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding its year-end target of 50,000 barrels.
U.S. stocks climbed amid signs that manufacturing output is increasing from China to Australia and America.
Manufacturing across the globe showed improvement in December, suggesting production is weathering strains from Europe’s debt crisis. In the U.S., a report showed factory output grew at the fastest pace in six months. Australian manufacturing expanded for the first time in six months, while similar Chinese and German (PMITMGE) data beat economist estimates in the past two days. Another report showed construction spending in the U.S. rose in November for a third time in four months.
Dow 12,420.77 +203.21 +1.66%, Nasdaq 2,649.24 +44.09 +1.69%, S&P 500 1,278.90 +21.30 +1.69%
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) rallied 4.7 percent and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) gained 4.5 percent as America’s two largest banks led financial shares higher.
Boeing Co. (BA) advanced 1.5 percent after retaining a contract.
Chevron Corp. (CVX) and ConocoPhillips increased at least 2.4 percent as the price of oil climbed.
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) surged 4.6 percent after JPMorgan recommended investors buy the shares.
Base metal producers gained as copper, aluminum, zinc and tin rose on speculation stronger gauges of manufacturing may signal increased demand for industrial metals. U.S. Steel Corp. advanced 5.4 percent. Alcoa Inc. (AA) gained 3.5 percent. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. rose 4.9 percent.
Gold rose to one-week high thanks to the fact that the dollar depreciates on Tuesday amid falling demand for the currency "safe haven". The reason for the increase in demand for risky assets, including gold, was the publication of positive statistical data on the manufacturing sector from Australia, China and India, unemployment in Germany and the index of business activity in the U.S..
Manufacturing activity in Australia rose in December for the first six months, official data showed. Purchasing managers' index (PMI) in India, which is calculated HSBC Holdings and Markit Economics, rose last month to 54.2 points - a maximum of six months, compared with 51 points in November. The comparable figure for China, calculated by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing China, has risen in the last month of last year to 50.3 points with 49 points.
In the U.S., data from the Institute for Supply Management, which published the index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector in December (ISM Manufacturing), showed that the rate rose last month to 53.9 points from 52.7 points a month earlier at the forecast of 53.3 points . Thus, ISM in the U.S. manufacturing sector has updated semi-annual maximum. Components of the report showed that the index of prices paid for the same period demonstrated an increase to 47.5 from 45, while the employment index updated in June and reached a maximum of 55.1. Recall that last month in the manufacturing sector was created five thousand jobs against the November 2 thousand
The unemployment rate in Germany in December showed reduction overcomes forecasts, helped by a sharp rise in exports of automobiles and industrial equipment, as well as an abnormally warm winter, which supported the activity in the construction sector. As reported today, the Federal Agency for Labour in Nuremberg, seasonally-weighted average unemployment rate registered a decline of 22 thousand to 2.89 million analysts polled before they expected to reduce by only 10 thousand of the report is also learned that the unemployment rate registered a decline to 6.8% from 6.9%.
February gold futures in electronic trading on the New York Stock Exchange on the Comex price increased to 1608.7 per troy ounce.
Oil climbed to a six-week high after manufacturing in the U.S. and Asia expanded in December and as concern persisted that further sanctions against Iran may disrupt shipments.
Futures gained as much as 4 percent on the first day of trading this year as the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index rose more than expected, adding to increases in China and India. An Iranian military official warned the U.S. against sending an aircraft carrier back to the Persian Gulf.
The ISM’s U.S. factory index rose to 53.9 in December from 52.7 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s data showed today. Readings above 50 signal expansion.
India’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose the most in six months in December, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said yesterday. China’s purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.3 in December from 49 in November, the Beijing-based logistics federation said Jan. 1. A number above 50 indicates expansion.
German unemployment fell more than forecast in December, adding to optimism that Europe’s economy will grow. The number of people out of work fell a seasonally adjusted 22,000 to 2.89 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. The adjusted jobless rate dropped to 6.8 percent.
Futures also rose as the U.S. and its allies increased pressure on Iran to halt what they say may be a covert nuclear weapons program. Sanctions signed into law by President Barack Obama on Dec. 31 aim to deter dealings with the Iranian central bank. The European Union will be ready by Jan. 30 to decide whether to extend sanctions, Michael Mann, a spokesman for the EU, said yesterday.
Iran, OPEC’s second-largest producer, doesn’t intend to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Deputy Navy Commander Rear Admiral Mahmoud Mousavi said yesterday, according to Press TV. Almost 17 million barrels a day of crude moved through the channel connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman last year, the U.S. Energy Department said in an update on “world oil transit chokepoints.”
Crude oil for February delivery touched $102.88, the highest level since Nov. 17. Futures climbed 8.2 percent in 2011, the third consecutive annual increase.
Brent oil for February settlement advanced $4.09, or 3.8 percent, to $111.47 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract’s premium to West Texas Intermediate futures was at $8.74, down from a record $27.88 on Oct. 14.
EUR/USD $1.2900
AUD/USD $1.0205
GBP/USD $1.5500, $1.5565
Data today may show a U.S. manufacturing gauge climbed to a six-month high in December, according to a survey of economists’ forecasts.
Hang Seng 18,877 +443.02 +2.40%
S&P/ASX 4,101 +44.60 +1.10%
FTSE 5,641 +68.75 +1.23%
CAC 3,202 -20.49 -0.64%
DAX 6,140 +64.31 +1.06%
Crude oil: $101.38 (+2,6%).
Gold: $1590,70 (+1,5%).
Intel (INTC) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays.
E2.202bln 6-month BTF, avg yield 0.074% (0.034%), cover 2.83 (3.90).
E2.075bln 11-month BTF, avg yield 0.136% (0.176%), cover 2.171 (1.85).
08:55 Germany Unemployment (December) seasonally adjusted -22K
08:55 Germany Unemployment rate (December) seasonally adjusted 6.8%
09:30 UK CIPS manufacturing index (December) 49.6
The dollar declined as signs that manufacturing is expanding in the U.S. and China damped the appeal of safer assets.
The greenback weakened before a U.S. report that economists said will show manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in six months, after data showed gains in gauges for China.
The euro climbed after German unemployment fell more than forecast.
EUR/USD: the pair has shown high in $1,3060 area then returned to $1,3020 area.
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5710, $1.5690/700, $1.5650
Bids $1.5585/80, $1.5560/50, $1.5500EUR/USD
Offers $1.3150, $1.3120/25, $1.3100, $1.3075/85
Bids $1.3025/15, $1.2985/75, $1.2950, $1.2910/00, $1.2880/50
Resistance 3: Y78.20/30 (Nov 29 and Dec 23 highs)
Resistance 2: Y77.60 (МА (200) for Н1 and Н4)
Resistance 1: Y77.00/10 (session high, Dec 8 low)
Current price: Y76.72
Support 1:Y76.55 (Nov 18 low)
Support 2:Y76.00 (psychological level)
Support 3:Y75.60 (historical low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9410 (Jan 2 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9380 (resistance line from Dec 29)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9360 (Jan 2 low)
Current price: Chf0.9347
Support 1: Chf0.9310 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9240 (Dec 22 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9180 (Dec 8-9 lows)
Resistance 2 : $1.5680/90 (Dec 27-28 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5625 (area of session high)
Current price: $1.5607
Support 1 : $1.5560 (МА(200) for Н1, Dec 30 high)
Support 2 : $1.5520 (support line from Dec 30)
Support 3 : $1.5465 (Jan 2 low)
Resistance 3: $ 1.3120 (Dec 22 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3080/90 (area of Dec 26-28 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3060 (session high)
Current price: $1.3042
Support 1 : $1.3005/00 (МА (200) for Н1, Dec 30 high)
Support 2 : $1.2920 (Jan 2 low)
Support 3 : $1.2860 (low of 2011)
Сurrently trading around $1.3050. Above $1.3050 rate can extend recovery to $1.3080/90.
$1.3100.
Currently:
FTSE 5,621 +48.83 +0.88%
CAC 3,201 -21.68 -0.67%
DAX 6,146 +70.52 +1.16%
European stocks rose before a report that may show manufacturing in the U.S. rose.
Shares of BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group jumped more than 4% as metal prices increased.
E1.28bln of 3-month; avg yield 0.264% (0.78%), cover 2.13 (8.59).
E1.155bln of 6-month; avg yield 0.364% (2.438%), cover 2.01 (2.76).
EUR/USD $1.2900
AUD/USD $1.0205
GBP/USD $1.5500, $1.5565
Hang Seng 18,877 +443.02 +2.40%
S&P/ASX 200 4,101 +44.60 +1.10%
Markets in China, Japan, Thailand and New Zealand were closed for a holiday.
Asian stocks rose as manufacturing growth from Australia, China and India added to optimism the region’s economies will withstand Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. Chinese lenders and commodity suppliers advanced as manufacturing in India and China improved in December, while Australian output expanded for the first time in six months, separate surveys showed.
BHP Billiton, which gets about 28 percent of sales from China, gained 1.1 percent in Sydney. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the world’s No. 1 lender by market value, advanced 3 percent as trading in Hong Kong resumed. Li & Fung, a supplier of toys and clothes to retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., climbed 6 percent on speculation consumer spending in the U.S. will increase after payrolls climbed for a second month.
The euro rose against the U.S. dollar against the better-than-expected data on the industrial sector of China and the euro area, which led to the closure of some short positions. More favorable production data of China and the positive dynamics of the Asian stock indexes contributed to the improvement of market sentiment. Thus, the index of activity in non-productive sector of China in December rose to 56.0 points against 49.7 points in November. At the same time, the euro constrain actions of rating agencies on sovereign ratings of European countries and the continued caution due to the debt crisis in Europe. One of the important events for the European single currency will be expected to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, scheduled for January 9. It can provide evidence to strengthen cooperation in trying to resolve the debt crisis in the eurozone, it is believed economists.
The Australian dollar rose to a maximum of a few weeks in connection with appearing in early 2012 a higher risk appetite. However, in general, a sharp increase may be due to low liquidity, while the markets reopened after the holidays. Markets in China and Japan remained closed on Tuesday.
EUR/USD: on Asian session the pair gain.
GBP/USD: on Asian session the pair gain.
USD/JPY: on Asian session the pair fell.
European stocks gained on their first trading day this year as a measure of German manufacturing beat estimates and a gauge of utilities rose.
A measure of German manufacturing climbed to 48.4 in December, beating the median economist estimate for a reading of 48.1.
A report this week will probably show that hiring in the U.S. accelerated in December for a second month, a sign that the country’s improving labor market will bolster consumer spending in early 2012, economists said. Payrolls climbed by 150,000 workers after rising 120,000 in November, according to the median forecast of economists in a survey before the Labor Department release on Jan. 6.
Siemens added 2.1%. A gauge of chemical makers increased 1.7%, with the preferred shares of Henkel AG increasing 3%.
ThyssenKrupp AG jumped 4.2%.
Sunways AG surged 22% as China’s LDK Solar Co. said it intends to take over the company. Sunways said LDK will buy a 33 percent stake and has offered to purchase the remaining equity for 1.90 euro per share.
Carmakers rose. Daimler AG increased 4.3%.
Resistance 2: Y77.70 (Dec 30 high)
Resistance 1: Y77.20 (Jan 03 high)
Current price: Y76.76
Support 1:Y76.55 (low of November)
Support 2:Y76.10 (low of September)
Next offers seen into $1.3020 ahead of $1.3040/50. Rate currently trades backa round $1.3000.
Resistance 2: Chf0.9440 (Dec 28 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9410 (Jan 02 high)
Current price: Chf0.9382
Support 1: Chf0.9360 (Jan 02 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9340 (Dec 30 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9320 (Dec 28 low)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5690 (area of Dec 27-28 highs)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5570 (Dec 30 high and МА(200) for Н1)
Current price: $1.5545
Support 1 : $1.5470 (Jan 02 low)
Support 2 : $1.5400 (Dec 30 low)
Support 3 : $1.5360 (Dec 29 low)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3080 (area of Dec 26-28 highs)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3020 (earlier support, Dec 21-23 lows)
Current price: $1.2979
Support 1 : $1.2900 (Dec 30 low)
Support 2 : $1.2800 (psychological mark)
Support 3 : $1.2700 (Sep, 13’2010 low)
01:30 China Non-Manufacturing PMI December 49.7 56.0
05:30 Australia Commodity Prices, Y/Y December +18.1% +10.9%
08:30 Switzerland SVME PMI December 44.8 44.9
08:55 Germany Unemployment Change December -20.0 -9.0
08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. December 6.9% 6.9%
09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing December 47.6
15:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing December 52.7 53.3
15:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m November +0.8% +0.6%
19:15 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes
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