Forex-novosti i prognoze od 30-12-2011

The euro dropped below 100 yen for the first time since June 2001 in a sixth straight day of decline on concern Europe’s debt crisis will weigh on the region’s economic growth. Europe’s shared currency may weaken to 99 yen in the first quarter of 2012, according to the median forecasts of 35 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. The shared currency will weaken to $1.28 in the second quarter of next year, according to a separate survey of 41 analysts. Two years of summits have failed to contain a European debt crisis that has led to bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal and now threatens Italy and Spain. French President Nicolas Sarkozy will go to Berlin on Jan. 9 to resume talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to end the turmoil, according to an official familiar with the matter. The leaders aim to complete revisions to Europe’s fiscal rulebook by March, following decisions made at a Dec. 9 summit, and are reassessing plans to cap the overall lending of their permanent rescue facility at 500 billion euros ($649 billion). Spain’s budget deficit will reach 8 percent of gross domestic product this year, more than the previous government’s forecast of 6 percent, government spokeswoman Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said at a press conference in Madrid.

The 17-nation currency headed for its first back-to-back annual decreases versus the dollar in a decade. The shared European currency is the worst performer among 10 developed-nation currencies this year, declining 2.1 percent, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes. The dollar has advanced 1 percent and the yen has gained 5.2 percent. The The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, fell 0.3 percent to 80.189. The measure is headed for a 1.6 percent gain this year after appreciating 1.3 percent last year, the first time it’s gained two years in a row since 2001.

China’s yuan climbed to a 17-year high on signs the central bank favors the currency’s appreciation to prevent capital outflows. The yuan advanced for a third day as the central bank set its reference rate 0.2 percent stronger at 6.3009 against the greenback, the highest level since a dollar peg ended in 2005. Hong Lei, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, said on Dec. 28 that China will continue to push for exchange-rate flexibility. Chinese manufacturing shrank less this month than in November, data showed today.

European stocks climbed in the last week of 2011 as U.S. data showed the recovery in the world’s largest economy is gathering pace and optimism grew that euro- area policy makers will contain the debt crisis.

Reports this week showed business activity in the U.S. expanded more than forecast and confidence among American consumers rose in December to the highest level in eight months.

Post-Christmas trading was slow, with daily volume in the Stoxx 600 this week dipping to 32 percent of this year’s average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Stoxx 600 gained 5.6 percent from the start of the year to its peak on Feb. 17. From there, the index tumbled 26 percent to its low on Sept. 22, entering a bear market. The gauge had its worst third quarter since 2002, dropping 17 percent, as U.S. leaders wrangled over deficit cuts and European policymakers remained divided on their response to the debt crisis.

An Oct. 26 agreement to bolster the region’s bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, stalled as Germany and France differed over how tackle the crisis. France called for using the ECB as a backstop, while Germany rejected it. Chancellor Angela Merkel listed using the ECB as the lender of last resort, issuing joint euro-area bonds and going in for a “snappy debt cut” as unworkable proposals.

Banks had the biggest drop among 19 industry groups this year, sinking 32 percent, amid growing concern that the fiscal crisis will force at least one nation to default on its debt. Health-care and food stocks advanced as investors sought companies whose earnings are less tied to economic growth.

Banco Comercial Portugues advanced 16 percent to a two- month high. Chinese banks may be interested in investing in the lender, news agency Lusa reported citing Cao Guangjing, chairman of China Three Gorges Corp.

Banco Espirito Santo rose 15 percent. Portugal may recapitalize the country’s banks without becoming a shareholder, Jornal de Negocios reported, without saying where it got the information. The state may subscribe contingent convertible bonds sold by the banks, the newspaper said. So-called CoCos are bonds that convert into equity if a bank’s capital drops below a set level.

Britvic Plc led food and beverage producers higher, extending this year’s gains for the industry. Britvic rallied 4.7 percent. Unilever climbed 1.6 percent. Nestle SA added 1.5 percent.

Rio Tinto Group declined 1 percent, as copper slid on the London Metal Exchange this week.

U.S. stocks were little changed, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index headed toward its third straight annual gain, after concern over Spain’s budget deficit overshadowed optimism the American economy will expand in 2012.

Data signaling that the world’s largest economy was weathering Europe’s crisis helped the market rebound during the fourth quarter. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 8.6 percent in November, the lowest since March 2009, after lingering at 9 percent or above for seven straight months. Equity futures erased gains today after Spain said its budget deficit will reach 8 percent of gross domestic product this year, more than the previous forecast of 6 percent. Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the group of euro- area finance ministers, said economic growth in the euro region “isn’t good” and the world economy is growing only in some Asian and African countries.

China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported the world’s second-largest economy may face “downside pressure” next year, even though growth will be more than 9 percent in 2011.

Dow 12,252.26 -34.78 -0.28%, Nasdaq 2,613.30 -0.44 -0.02%, S&P 500 1,261.03 -1.99 -0.16%

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank by assets, sank 0.8 percent as financial companies slumped.

Sears Holdings Corp. retreated 1.6 percent after Fitch Ratings downgraded its long- term default ratings.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. rose 1.1 percent as commodity producers posted the biggest gains out of 10 groups in the S&P 500.

In the last trading session of the oil decreased after the day before it was reported that U.S. crude stocks rose twice as many expectations. Negative sentiment came from the country's second volume of oil consumer in the world, where more precise estimate of HSBC PMI index in China's industrial sector was worse than the original, and shows a decline in the volume of transactions a second month in a row.

Commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. from 17 to 23 December 2011. increased by 3.9 million barrels. and amounted to 327.48 million barrels., reported the U.S. Department of Energy (US Department of Energy). Analysts polled by Reuters, forecast inventory increase by 1.7 million barrels. According to the Ministry, the volume of crude oil reserves as at 24 December 2011. decreased relative to the indicator on the same date last year by 4.0%. At the same time gasoline inventories for the week of 17 to 23 December this year decreased by 0.7 million barrels. and amounted to 217.7 million barrels., up from the same period in 2010. by 1.3%. Heavy distillate stocks in the period rose by 1.2 million barrels. - Up to 140.4 million barrels. That is 12.8% lower than a year earlier. Stocks Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the reporting week has not changed and amounted to 696.0 million barrels. Own oil production in the U.S. for 17-23 December 2011. decreased by 16 thousand barrels per day. and amounted to 5.862 thousand barrels / day. Deliveries of oil to refineries (refinery) dropped from 14.604 thousand barrels / day to 14.585 thousand barrels / day.

Today, the February futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) in trading in New York fell to 98.61 dollars per barrel. February futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell 38 cents, or 0.4% to 107.63 dollars per barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Сегодня в ходе торгов золото технически отыгрывает свое падение за предыдущие шесть сессий. Золото на COMEX накануне подешевело в шестой раз подряд, опустившись до самого низкого значения почти за шесть месяцев. Продажи золота были вызваны сохранением стабильных позиций доллара США, что существенно ослабило инвестиционный спрос на золотые слитки. Однако активные продажи золота прекратились после того, как накануне его котировки в ходе торгов впервые почти за полгода просели ниже отметки 1525 долл./унция, обеспечив привлекательные условия для его технических покупок.

Инвестиционный спрос на физическое золото накануне оставался стабильный. Так, активы золота, принадлежащие биржевому индексному фонду SPDR Gold Trust, который является крупнейшим в мире держателем золота среди инвестиционных институтов, 29 декабря не изменились и составили 1 тыс. 254,6 т золота. Это их самый низкий показатель с начала ноября с.г. Отметим, активы фонда SPDR Gold Trust не меняются с 22 декабря. С начала декабря они уменьшились на 44,1 т золота после того, как 30 ноября они достигли максимального уровня за 10 с половиной месяцев - 1,298 тыс. т золота.

Стоимость февральских фьючерсов на COMEX сегодня выросла до 1577,1 долларов за унцию.

Resistance 3:1267 (high of December)

Resistance 2:1264 (Dec 27-28 high)

Resistance 1:1260 (session high)

Current price: 1256,50

Support 1 : 1253 (session low)

Support 2 : 1247 (support line from Dec 28)

Support 3 : 1242 (Dec 28 low)

EUR/USD$1.3000, $1.3020, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3165, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y79.00

AUD/USD $1.0200

GBP/USD $1.6000

Offers $1.5645/50, $1.5595/00, $1.5580/85, $1.5545/50, $1.5475/80

Bids $1.5365/60, $1.5275/70, $1.5255/50,

EUR/USD

Offers

$1.3035/40, $1.3015/20, $1.2995/00

Bids $1.2900, $1.2875/70, $1.2860/55, $1.2830/25, $1.2770/65

European stocks fluctuated, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index heading for its first annual decline in three years, as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ruled out a euro-area breakup. Asian shares increased, while U.S. index futures fell.

At the moment:

FTSE 100 5,550 -16.61 -0.30%

CAC 40 3,125 -2.64 -0.08%

DAX 5,838 -10.79 -0.18%

Health-care stocks, this year’s best-performing industry group, advanced as Elan Corp. climbed. Elan jumped 4.3 percent to 10.90 euros, the highest since July 2008. Actelion Ltd. added 1.2 percent to 32.19 Swiss francs. Health-care stocks climbed 0.4 percent as a group.

Banco Comercial Portugues jumped 6.9 percent to 14 euro cents, heading for the biggest weekly advance since 1998. Chinese banks may be interested in investing in the bank, Lusa said. The news agency cited Cao Guangjing, chairman of China Three Gorges Corp. China’s economic growth is expected to be more than 9 percent this year, the official Xinhua News Agency said in a New Year’s editorial today.

The euro rose against the dollar against the background of positive statistics from the U.S., where the Chicago PMI, who appeared at the level of 62.5 points, surpassed the average analyst expectations forecasted by 61.0 points. In addition, in November, the number of Americans signed contracts to buy second homes, rose more than analysts expected, as falling prices and low interest rates on loans have a positive effect on demand. The index of pending home sales transactions NAR increased by 7.3% to its highest level since April 2010, as shown by the National Association of Realtors in Washington. Economists expected growth of 1.5%, and the previous figure noted an increase of 10.4%. Analysts' forecasts ranged from -3% to +11%.Industry, which provoked a 18-month recession that lasted until June 2009, showing signs of stabilization in the background of recovery of the construction sector and reduce the number of homes for sale. However, there is a danger that a new wave of deprivation of the right to repurchase the mortgaged property may have a negative impact on the development of the property market next year.

Earlier, the euro fell to a 15-month low against the U.S. dollar on speculation about what the ECB will be forced to increase the infusion of money into the financial system to avoid exacerbating the debt crisis in the region. Had no significant positive effect on market sentiment results of the auction of government bonds of Italy, whose results have been mixed. On one side was recorded decrease in the average yield for the production compared with the previous releases, but it failed to attract the maximum planned capacity. After the auction yield spread between 10-year bonds in Italy and Germany increased to the level of 519 basis points.

EUR/USD: the range of the yesterday's tenders has exceeded 100 points. The pair showed low in $1,2850 area in the first half of the yesterday’s session. Then the pair grown in $1,2960 area.

GBP/USD: the pair has shown session low in $1,5360 area, but finished session above $1,5400.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair fell in Y77,60 area.

European stocks advanced for the fourth time in five days as business activity in the U.S. expanded more than forecast.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said its business barometer decreased to 62.5 this month from 62.6 in November. Readings above 50 signal growth. Economists forecast the gauge would fall to 61, according to the median of 49 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. A U.S. Labor Department report showed that first applications for unemployment benefits increased 381,000 last week, after falling to the lowest since April 2008 in the previous period. In Europe, Italy missed its fundraising target at the auction of debt maturing between 2014 and 2022, while its borrowing costs eased. The Treasury in Rome sold 6 percent bonds due in 2014 to yield 5.62 percent, down from 7.89 percent at the previous sale on Nov. 29 and priced its 5 percent 2022 bond to yield 6.98 percent, compared with 7.56 percent on Nov. 29. The Treasury also sold bonds due in 2021 and a floating-rate security due 2018. Italy’s bond sale followed yesterday’s auction of bills, where yields fell.

National benchmark indexes advanced in 16 of the 18 Western European (SXXP) markets today.

Bayer AG increased 2.9% after filing a supplemental new drug application together with Johnson & Johnson for the Xarelto blood thinner drug to treat Acute Coronary Syndrome.

Yara International ASA rose 1.9% and Syngenta AG gained 1.1%.

Fiat retreated 0.9% after Monica Bosio, a Banca IMI analyst, cut the stock to “hold” from “add.”

Mining shares dropped as copper declined for a second day on the London Metal Exchange. Petropavlovsk Plc slid 3.2%.

Nikkei 225 8,399 -24.73 -0.29%

Hang Seng 18,398 -120.75 -0.65%

S&P/ASX 200 4,071 -17.69 -0.43%

Shanghai Composite 2,174 +3.55 +0.16%

FTSE 100 5,567 +59.37 +1.08%

CAC 40 3,128 +56.48 +1.84%

DAX 5,849 +77.51 +1.34%

Dow 12,287.04 +135.63 +1.12%

Nasdaq 2,613.74 +23.76 +0.92%

S&P 500 1,263.01 +13.37 +1.07%

10 Year Yield 1.90% -0.01 --

Oil $99.68 +0.03 +0.03%

Gold $1,547.90 +7.00 +0.45%