Forex-novosti i prognoze od 04-01-2012

European stocks retreated from a five-month high as UniCredit rights offer boosted concern that banks will need to raise more capital to weather the region’s debt crisis.

Germany got bids for 5.14 billion euros ($6.7 billion) of 10-year bunds at an auction, more than the maximum sales target of 5 billion euros. The debt agency accepted bids for 4.06 billion euros at an average yield of 1.93 percent. Portugal’s borrowing costs fell at a sale of 1 billion euros of three-month bills.

National benchmark indexes fell in all of Europe’s 18 western markets, except Iceland and Switzerland. France’s CAC 40 Index dropped 1.6 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index slipped 0.6 percent and Germany’s DAX Index lost 0.9 percent.

UniCredit tumbled 14 percent, the largest decline since at least 1988, as the bank said it will sell shares at 1.943 euros apiece to raise 7.5 billion euros. The rights offer is a 43 percent discount to yesterday’s closing price, excluding the value of rights.

Vestas sank 19 percent, the lowest price since 2003, after cutting its earnings forecasts and saying it will announce a significant change to its corporate structure on Jan. 12.

Next dropped 3.1 percent after it reported sales that missed analyst estimates as growth in online revenue failed to offset lower store sales during a period that included the peak Christmas holiday season.

Larger rival Marks & Spencer Group Plc sank 2.6 percent. Home Retail Group Plc, the owner of Homebase outlets in the U.K., slumped 3.5 percent.

Qiagen NV the German biotechnology company, increased 3.2 percent as analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised the stock to “overweight” from “neutral.”

U.S. stocks were little changed as consumer, industrial and commodity companies rose, helping the market reverse an early drop triggered by lower-than-forecast factory orders and concern Europe’s banks need to raise capital.

Dow 12,398.10 +0.72 +0.01%, Nasdaq 2,647.00 -1.72 -0.06%, S&P 500 1,276.34 -0.72 -0.06%

Ford Motor Co. gained 2.7 percent as carmakers reported December vehicle sales that beat analysts’ estimates, capping the U.S. auto industry’s best year since 2008.

Home Depot Inc., Lowe’s Cos. and Starbucks Corp. advanced at least 1.5 percent after the International Council of Shopping Centers increased its estimate for December retail-sales growth.

Oil fluctuated near an eight-month high on reports that the European Union will ban imports of Iranian oil and concern that the region’s debt crisis will affect consumption.

Crude advanced as much as 0.8 percent after Reuters reported that the EU governments have reached a deal in principle to ban the imports, citing diplomats. No starting date was determined. Prices declined earlier on European reports showing services and manufacturing output declined.

Crude for February delivery touched $103.74, the highest intraday level since May 11. Prices climbed 8.2 percent in 2011, their third straight annual gain.

Brent oil for February settlement rose 68 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $112.81 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Resistance 3:1289 (high of October)

Resistance 2:1279 (Jan 3 high)

Resistance 1:1274 (intraday high)

Current price: 1263,50

Support 1 : 1260 (Dec 30 high)

Support 2 : 1253 (area of Dec 30 - Jan 3 low)

Support 3 : 1235 (area of Dec 28-29 low)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3070, $1.3175, $1.3115

USD/JPY Y77.00, Y77.30, Y78.00

EUR/JPY Y100.00

GBP/USD $1.5675

AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0220, $1.0400

At 15:00 GMT, US factory new orders are expected to rise 2.2% in November, as durables orders were already reported up 3.8% on a spike in aircraft orders and nondurables orders are expected to rise on higher energy.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3150, $1.3120/25, $1.3100/10, $1.3080/85

Bids $1.3045/40, $1.3030/20, $1.3010/00, $1.2985/75, $1.2950

Today sees the release of the final services PMI releases  for December, which are expected to confirm the preliminary readings,  including the EMU data at 08:58 GMT. At 10:00 GMT, flash EMU HICP is expected to come in as low as 2.6%.

UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI is due at 09:30 GMT, at the same time as Bank of England lending data, including Lending to Individuals, Mortgage Approvals, Net Secured Lending, Consumer Credit and also Final M4 data. The BBA mortgage approvals data, which are taken from the major

banking groups and so make up the bulk of the BOE figures, showed a 1.3% fall on the month in November. Which makes the median forecast for a

broadly unchanged reading in the BOE approvals data to 53k look optimistic.

At 15:00 GMT, US factory new orders are expected to rise 2.2% in November, as durables orders were already reported up 3.8% on a spike in aircraft orders and nondurables orders are expected to rise on higher energy.

This morning sees the release of the final services PMI releases  for December, which are expected to confirm the preliminary readings,  including the EMU data at 08:58 GMT. At 10:00 GMT, flash EMU HICP is expected to come in as low as 2.6%.

UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI is due at 09:30 GMT, at the same time as Bank of England lending data, including Lending to Individuals, Mortgage Approvals, Net Secured Lending, Consumer Credit and also Final M4 data. The BBA mortgage approvals data, which are taken from the major

banking groups and so make up the bulk of the BOE figures, showed a 1.3% fall on the month in November. Which makes the median forecast for a

broadly unchanged reading in the BOE approvals data to 53k look optimistic.

At 15:00 GMT, US factory new orders are expected to rise 2.2% in November, as durables orders were already reported up 3.8% on a spike in aircraft orders and nondurables orders are expected to rise on higher energy.

Asian stocks rose as manufacturing growth from Australia, China and India added to optimism the region’s economies will withstand Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. Chinese lenders and commodity suppliers advanced as manufacturing in India and China improved in December, while Australian output expanded for the first time in six months, separate surveys showed. Markets in China, Japan, Thailand and New Zealand were closed for a holiday.

BHP Billiton, which gets about 28 % of sales from China, gained 1.1 % in Sydney. Jiangxi Copper, the country’s largest producer of the metal, gained 3.2 %. ICBC climbed 3 % in Hong Kong. China Construction Bank Corp., the nation’s second- biggest lender, rose 1.9 %.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the world’s No. 1 lender by market value, advanced 3 % as trading in Hong Kong resumed.

Exporters to the U.S. rallied. Li & Fung, a supplier of toys and clothes to retailers including Wall-Mart Stores Inc., climbed 6 % on speculation consumer spending in the U.S. will increase after payrolls climbed for a second month. Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s second-largest maker of mobile phones by sales, increased 2.3 % in Seoul. Billabong International Ltd., an Australian surfwear maker that gets about half of sales from the Americas, rose 1.7 %.

European stocks rose for a fourth day as a report showed that manufacturing in the U.S. expanded in December at the fastest pace in six months.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 53.9 last month from 52.7 in November. France sold 84-, 161- and 315-day treasury bills today. The 10-year yield increased four basis points to 3.28 % as of 2:05 p.m. London time, rising for a fifth consecutive day. Two- year yields added two basis points to 0.87 %.

German unemployment fell in December more than economists had forecast as exports of cars and machinery boomed and one of the mildest winters on record helped support jobs in construction.

BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company, surged 6.2 %, while Rio Tinto, the second-largest, soared 6.4 %.

Carmakers posted the second-best performance of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600 as Polk, a research company based in Southfield, Michigan, predicted that the industry’s sales will rise to 77.7 million vehicles this year, helped by a 16 % gain in China to 17.9 million.

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) rose 4 % as Sueddeutsche Zeitung said the world’s biggest maker of luxury cars (BMW) expects the automotive market to remain stable in 2012, with growth opportunities in the U.S. and China.

Afren Plc soared 20 %, its largest increase since April 2009 and the best performance in the Stoxx 600 today. The U.K. oil and gas explorer focused on Africa said its aggregate production has reached 55,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding its year-end target of 50,000 barrels.

U.S. stocks climbed, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest level since July, amid signs that manufacturing output is increasing from China to Australia and America.

Manufacturing across the globe showed improvement in December, suggesting production is weathering strains from Europe’s debt crisis. In the U.S., a report today showed factory output grew at the fastest pace in six months. Australian manufacturing expanded for the first time in six months, while similar Chinese and German data beat economist estimates in the past two days. Another report showed construction spending in the U.S. rose in November for a third time in four months.

Stocks maintained gains after the Federal Reserve said it will for the first time make public their own forecasts for the federal funds rate at their Jan. 24-25 meeting, according to minutes from last month’s Federal Open Market Committee released today. The move marks another stride toward greater transparency under the chairmanship of Ben S. Bernanke. By releasing their forecasts, central bankers are likely to alter expectations for the timing of the first increase in their benchmark rate, which has been kept near zero since December 2008.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) rallied 4.3 % and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) gained 5.2 % as America’s two largest banks led financial shares higher.

Boeing Co. (BA) advanced 1.2 % after retaining a contract.

Chevron Corp. (CVX) and ConocoPhillips increased at least 1.8 % as the price of oil climbed.

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) surged 3 % after JPMorgan recommended investors buy the shares.

Base metal producers gained as copper, aluminum, zinc and tin rose on speculation stronger gauges of manufacturing may signal increased demand for industrial metals. U.S. Steel Corp. advanced 6.5 %. Alcoa Inc. (AA) gained 6.7 %. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. rose 7.4 %.