Oil: an overview of the market situation

The price of oil increased significantly, rising at the same time above $ 103 a barrel, as more encouraging data from Europe and better-than-expected, official data from China balanced the uncertainty about the prospects for U.S. monetary policy.

As it became known today, the index of business activity in the euro area industry (Manufacturing PMI) in June rose slightly stronger than originally assumed. These data are another sign that the currency bloc's economy begins to emerge from a state of prolonged recession.

The index rose to 48.8 points last month compared to 48.7 points in May, according to the Markit Economics. Economists expected the continued importance of 48.7 points.

Although the index value below 50 suggests decline of business activity, the rate of decline of activity is now slowing, which is encouraging.

The growth in June was the strongest since July 2010 Economists believe that in the second quarter ended 18-month decline of the economy in the eurozone.

According to the updated forecast of the European Commission of the euro area's GDP will shrink this year by 0.4%. In 2012, euro area GDP down by 0.6%.

We also add that the markets continue to watch the U.S. Federal Reserve's pending guidance on the future of its program of bond purchases. Recall that last month the head of the Federal Reserve signaled that the U.S. central bank may go for a reduction in the amount of bond purchases at its September meeting, which could strengthen the dollar. But the situation will also depend on the U.S. labor market. Add that many investors are waiting for Friday's employment report, which just may change the size of the program. It should be noted that the weak report would undermine the dollar again and raise the price of oil.

The cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 97.96 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

August futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose 1.06$ to $ 103.07 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.