Asian session: Europe’s shared currency fell

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence July 102.2 102.1

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln June 20.4 27.8 27.1

Europe’s shared currency fell for a second day versus the yen before ECB Executive-Board Member Joerg Asmussen speaks today. He said yesterday the central bank’s policy will remain accommodative for an extended period, reiterating comments by President Mario Draghi.

Industrial production in France probably fell 0.8 percent in May from the previous month, when it increased 2.2 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the data today.

Standard & Poor’s yesterday cut Italy’s long-term credit rating to BBB, two levels above junk, from BBB+, citing expectations for a weakening in economic prospects and the nation’s impaired financial system.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is due to speak on economic policy as the Dollar Index rose toward a three-year high. In the U.S., minutes will be released today of the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 18-19 meeting, after which Bernanke told reporters the central bank may begin to slow its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases this year.

Japan’s currency gained against its major peers as economists cut ditched forecasts for the Bank of Japan to ease policy further this year. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his fellow policy makers start a two-day meeting today. They will discuss upgrading their assessment of the nation’s economy by using the word “recover” for the first time in more than two years, according to people familiar with the BOJ’s discussions.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.2765/85

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.4840/80

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell below Y101.00

Tuesday sees a muted day of data and scheduled speakers - at least until Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks tonight. Early data sees the release of German final June HICP data. Analysts are looking for an increase of 0.1% on month and a rise of 1.9% on year. At 0645GMT, French data sees the release of the May current account numbers and the May industrial output data. French industrial output is seen down 0.8% on month and down 0.2% on year. Italian May industrial output numbers will be published at 0800GMT. At the same time, ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer will give a press conference on the annual report on savings, in Paris. The US calendar gets underway at 1100GMT, with the release of the MBA Mortgage Index numbers for the July 5 week. Vice President Joe Biden opens the US-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue in Washington, starting at 1300GMT. At 1400GMT, the May Wholesale Inventories numbers will cross the wires and are seen up 0.3% on month. At 1430GMT, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks for the July 5 week are set for release. The latest FOMC Meeting Minutes will cross the wires at 1800GMT, although their importance will likely be overridden by the 2010GMT appearance of the Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, speaking to the NBER Summer Institute in Boston. At some stage through the late session, Brazil's latest Copom policy decision is expected.