Oil: an overview of the market situation

Cost of oil futures declined moderately today, continuing to retreat from the nine-month high, amid signs that oil exports from southern Iraq will not suffer from escalation.

Oil market today continues to record profits, the resulting fall on fears of oil exports from Iraq. Radical Islamists seized several towns in the east and north-east of Iraq and now lead an offensive against Baghdad. However, the oil fields in southern Iraq, which supplies about 95% of its oil exports, remain under the control of government forces. Recall that in the last month, Iraq produced about 3.5 million barrels of oil per day, in connection with what was the second largest OPEC oil producer after Saudi Arabia.

The course of trade is also affected by expectations of market participants key risk events. Tomorrow China should publish official manufacturing index for June, which, according to many forecasts, will reach a maximum of six months. Meanwhile, on Thursday, investors will be closely watching the political meeting of the European Central Bank, and wait for the release of the report on employment in the U.S. non-farm payrolls, which will give further views on the strength of the labor market.

Also note that analysts Reuters significantly increased oil price forecasts on the background of military action in Iraq, occupying the second place in the OPEC oil producer, and Ukraine. 26 forecast of analysts surveyed by was 108 dollars per barrel of Brent crude this year, compared with 105.90 dollars in the May poll. From the beginning, the average price of Brent was $ 108.72 per barrel. Forecasts for Brent for 2015 and 2016 are equal to, respectively, $ 104.80 and $ 102.10. Analysts on average forecast that the average price of U.S. benchmark WTI this year will rise to $ 100.40 a barrel from $ 98.05 in 2013. From the beginning, WTI traded at an average of $ 100.72.

Cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 105.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

August futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell by 63 cents to $ 112.38 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.