GBP: A Strategy For A 'Big If' Trade - Nomura

"Reminded that the single market access is important, but not on top.

The speech by Theresa May over the weekend told us that the timing of Article 50 is to be "no later than the end of March next year." This provided clarity as to when, but was not much of a surprise given several reports that alluded to that possibility in the weeks prior. The market view this morning was that the big themes of Brexit were touched on and offered little hope of a single market access outcome, given the emphasis on immigration and sovereignty controls used.

GBP continues to be a difficult market to trade, with political headlines causing the recent fall but also a deterioration of wider market risk sentiment perhaps playing part of the trend lower.

If the negative European financial developments continue, this could accelerate GBP weakness, especially against USD, while the US political risk declined somewhat after the first debate (still uncertain, though).

Assuming a widespread market tail risk event doesn't materialize (also a big IF), given these low levels the value trade remains to hold Long GBP in the medium term; however, timing remains important, as we remain in a range-bound environment whilst the Tory party conference is not yet over, so we would wait for the dust to settle before doing so and look to see how Services PMI is on Wednesday".

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