Survey: US economic prospects have not changed, but the uncertainty has increased after the elections

Economic forecasts for the United States have not changed since then, as D. Trump unexpectedly won the presidential election. However, uncertainty has jumped on a lack of clarity on the issue of a possible aggressive tax cuts and trade barriers in the coming years.

Nevertheless, a survey of more than 100 economists, conducted by Reuters, showed that the Fed remains on track to raise interest rates next month.

This week, the dollar index hit a high of 13.5 years and is now trading nearly 3 percent higher than 8 November, when the presidential elections were held in the United States.

About two-thirds of respondents said Trump/s presidency would have a negative impact on US exports in the next year. Ten economists said that his victory will not have much effect, whereas only three respondents said that export volume will increase. Much will depend on the extent to which Trump will follow his pre-election promises to curb trade protectionism and migration levels. The survey also showed that the probability of a recession in the next year is 20 percent compared to 15 percent last month.