OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $52.40/b in January, representing a gain of 73¢ over the previous month. NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent also saw gains, increasing by 44¢ and 53¢ to average $52.61/b and $55.45/b, respectively. Production adjustments by OPEC and some non-OPEC producers supported the market, although gains were capped by increased drilling activity in the US. The Brent-WTI spread widened slightly to average $2.84/b in January.

Global economic growth expectations remain at 3.0% in 2016 and 3.2% in 2017. OECD growth in 2017 was revised up to 1.9%, following upward adjustments in the Euro-zone and UK. US economic growth remains unchanged at 2.2%. Forecasts for China and India in 2017 also remain unchanged at 6.2% and 7.1%, respectively. Russia's 2017 growth was revised up to 1.0%, while Brazil's growth forecast remains unchanged at 0.4%.

World oil demand growth in 2016 is expected to increase by 1.32 mb/d, following an upward adjustment of 70 tb/d to reflect continued better-than-expected consumption in OECD Europe and Asia Pacific. Total oil demand is now estimated to average 94.62 mb/d, taking into account base line adjustments to China of around 0.12 mb/d. In 2017, world oil demand growth is seen to reach 1.19 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 35 tb/d to now average 95.81 mb/d.