French CPI declined 0.5% in December, as expected

Over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should slow down for the third consecutive month: +1.2% in January 2019 after +1.6% in December 2018, according to the provisional estimate made at the end of January 2019. The fall in inflation should result from a pronounced deceleration in the prices of energy. Services prices should rise at the same pace as in December and those in manufactured products should drop barely less than in the previous month. Contrariwise, food and tobacco prices should gather pace.

Over one month, consumer prices should fall back by 0.5% after a stability in December. The prices of manufactured products should drop sharply because of the beginning of winter sales. Those of energy should fall again, but less than in December, in the wake of petroleum product prices. Services prices should slow down due to a seasonal downturn in airfares. Food prices should also be a little less dynamic than in the previous month. At least, those of tobacco should increase after a stability in December.

Year on year, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices should slow down sharply to +1.4% after +1.9% in December. Over one month, it should fall back by 0.6%, after +0.1% in the previous month.