Eurozone economic sentiment indicator increased slightly in August

According to the report from European Commission, in August 2019, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased slightly in the euro area (by 0.4 points to 103.1), while it continued to decline in the EU (by 0.6 points to 101.4).

The slight improvement of euro-area sentiment resulted from markedly higher confidence in industry and retail trade, while confidence deteriorated significantly in services and construction and, to a lesser extent, among consumers.

The strong increase in industry confidence (+1.4), partially offsetting the significant decline observed in July, resulted from managers' more optimistic views on all three components, i.e. production expectations, the current level of overall order books and the stocks of finished products. The marked decline in services confidence (−1.3) was driven by managers' more pessimistic views on the past business situation and past demand, as well as their demand expectations. The slight decline in consumer confidence (−0.5) reflected the deterioration in households’ expectations about the general economic situation, while their assessments of both their past and future financial situation improved somewhat, and their intentions to make major purchases remained unchanged. 

The strong increase in retail trade confidence (+1.2) was fuelled by more optimistic views on the present business situation and, to a lesser extent, the adequacy of the volume of stocks, while expectations about the business situation worsened. Lower construction confidence (−1.3) resulted from managers' lower employment expectations, as well as their more pessimistic assessment of the level of order books. Finally, financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) decreased markedly (−4.8), reflecting strong deterioration in managers' assessment of the past business situation and past demand, while their demand expectations remained virtually unchanged.

In August 2019, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area increased markedly (by 0.22 points to +0.11). Managers’ assessments of past production and of export order books improved sharply. Also their production expectations, as well as their views on overall order books and the level of stocks of finished products improved markedly.