If a US recession comes, it will be ‘shallow’ - Barings chief

Any recession that happens in the US would likely be “shallow” given the current state of the country’s economy, according to Tom Finke, chairman and CEO of investment management firm Barings.

“From the U.S. point of view and the U.S. economy, if we’re talking about a recession in the U.S., the consumer and growth industries like (technology) have offset declines in ... other industries,” Finke told CNBC.

“We still have tight labor markets, you still have growth industries,” Finke said. “It’s not the typical, if you will, cyclical slowdown where you have a big long decline going into it. We’re actually growing still.”

As the U.S.-China trade fight rages, major stock markets across the globe have fluctuated wildly. Finke said Barings keeps its eye on the fundamentals in such an environment.

“What we’re looking at,” he said, “is industries and companies and their balance sheets and their income statements to say: ‘OK, do they have sustainable growth going on ... are they able to generate cash flow, are they in an industry that’s being disrupted like retail, or are they in an industry that’s growing like technology?’”

“You gotta look at those fundamentals and not just look at the movement in stock market day-to-day, and picking value in credit markets and in asset markets like real estate,” he said.