Dollar Index poised for a breakout to new highs near term – Westpac

Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, suggests that DXY appears poised for a breakout to new highs near term while Trump impeachment being an overstated risk.

“Trump impeachment is an overstated risk: the procedural steps to a resolution in the House are long and then there is the requirement for the Senate to vote by an almost insurmountable 2/3 majority. The prospect of a more gridlocked Congress is moot - the upcoming election year was never going to see any signature legislation. The hurdle for another Fed insurance cut 30 Oct is understandably high too. Even reliable 2019 voting dove Chicago President Evans said he doesn’t see a need for further cuts, while a relatively encouraging round of data of late will cement the FOMC’s central tendency for continued above trend growth. That USD positive scenario and a steady Fed hand 30 Oct could admittedly shift quickly if exogenous risks materialise; notably Brexit and if ministerial US-China trade talks slated for 10-11 Oct produce nothing tangible. If so, Trump will forge ahead with a lifting of the 25% tariff on $250bn in China imports to 30%.”